Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Does Bowman Make His Mark on the Team Before Training Camp?

[belair]

His NMC doesn't become an NTC until next season.

Beyond that you'd be bargaining from a position of extreme weakness, everyone in the league would know you have to move that salary otherwise you will be over the cap, so they can basically charge anything to take the salary off your hands. A 1st round pick, for example wouldn't be an unheard of ask.

His NMC turns into a M-NTC on February 28, 2025. And that 'position of extreme weakness' would be no different than the position the Oilers were in dealing Barrie to the Preds in the Ekholm trade.

None of the players the Oilers are looking to deal for cap relief are considered underperforming assets. Teams out there won't overlook the opportunity to pick up a contributing veteran.

 

[McDoused]

I am not sure how many times in the past there have been diametrically opposite positions presented that both made so much sense. Right or wrong I usually find it relatively easy to pick a side in something like this, but not this time. As each day passes I am genuinely more and more unsure of what the best path is here.

The oilers have 4 options:

1. Sign Both

PROS:
You get to keep Broberg and Holloway
CONS:
6.9M against the cap.
Kane on LTIR is temporary.
Ceci will need to be traded.
We still need a RHD upgrade for Nurse.

2. Sign Neither

CONS:
You lose Broberg and Holloway.

PROS:
Oilers will have cap space and flexibility
You aren't worried about Kane coming back from LTIR.
You can still trade Ceci and use his cap space elsewhere.
You get draft picks to trade for an upgrade/replacement.
You can still upgrade your right side defence.

3. Sign Holloway

PROS:
Oilers will have some cap space and flexibility
You can still trade Ceci and use his cap space elsewhere.
You get a draft pick to trade for an upgrade/replacement.
You can still upgrade your right side defence.

CONS:
You lose Broberg.
You lose some cap flexibility.
You still a little worried about Kane coming back from LTIR.
Ceci might stick around until you find an upgrade.

4. Sign Broberg

PROS:
You get to keep Broberg.
Likely means that Cody Ceci is traded.

CONS:
4.6M against the cap.
Kane on LTIR is temporary.
We won't be able to upgrade our RHD to play with Nurse.

Personally, I don't think Broberg is good enough to be a capable RHD with Nurse, so I don't commit that money to Broberg. I still trade Ceci now or at the deadline to improve (target a guy like Larsson). Holloway I go back and forth on because he isn't as much of an overpay but I don't see him as being hard to replace. I also see Kane coming back at some point, which pushes a 2.3M player further down the lineup.

 

[belair]

They're getting him either way.

I initially thought as much, but with the Kane LTI situation, I think it's likelier we see a Ceci trade in the next few days.

 

[Soundwave]

His NMC turns into a M-NTC on February 28, 2025. And that 'position of extreme weakness' would be no different than the position the Oilers were in dealing Barrie to the Preds in the Ekholm trade.

None of the players the Oilers are looking to deal for cap relief are considered underperforming assets. Teams out there won't overlook the opportunity to pick up a contributing veteran.

That's not really a 1:1 comparison, Nashville had to take salary back to get the two 1st round picks (basically) for Ekholm, you can't just send 6 million out and not take any back.

When you're asking a team to just clean take $5.125 million off your books because they know you need to get under the cap, that's going to be come with a cost (see: the Leafs cost of dumping Patrick Marleau). Especially if on top of everything it's not an expiring deal (something that they can just write off after a few weeks past the deadline).

If the Oilers want to go down that road they need to understand it could very well cost a 1st+.

This situation is why you don't want a 5 million rise (the first significant rise in the cap in like 3 years) in the cap go straight to dead cap from bad signings by the previous GM while every team gets real money to play with. These are the exact kinds of terrible situations that can arise.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Possible but I don’t think it’s a stretch that Brown can give you a fairly similar performance to Dez at less than half the cost. I loved Desharnais and was very sad to see him go but I think it’s a smart move splitting less money then you would have paid him between a guy who can bring a similar game and another guy who has shown he has the ability to play up the lineup at times, especially when in a cap crunch, splitting the dollars of one position into two and giving yourself some versatility and flexibility.


I think the mistake Jackson made was not calling around and putting it out there they were open to trading one or both of Holloway and Broberg. Maybe you get a good offer and pull the trigger but more importantly it likely draws the situation into the open and forces Armstrong to speed up his timeline on the offer sheets because if the Oilers traded either of then his plan goes down the drain. It was a very unique situation that requires the timing to be just right to maximize the likelihood of it working.

Generally I imagine teams defer to their own players. Their toi is similar at Vinnie 15:44 and Brown 14:45 on a non playoff team. Desharnais was a solid role guy on the Oil PK who showed growth in his game as an age 28 peak years player. The NHLEdge comps between them: NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Comparisons

On a weak blueline and especially vulnerable right side, the Oilers are facing a very difficult decision to go down two homegrown guys on the weak right side.

I think easily the most likely scenario that Edmonton management got caught with their pants down thinking it was business as usual smoking out their RFA's as had been their summer tendency.

 

[belair]

2. Sign Neither

CONS:
You lose Broberg and Holloway.

PROS:
Oilers will have cap space and flexibility
You aren't worried about Kane coming back from LTIR.
You can still trade Ceci and use his cap space elsewhere.
You get draft picks to trade for an upgrade/replacement.
You can still upgrade your right side defence.

That's the thing though. The Oilers don't have the cap flexibility. They're still going into LTI. And as it stands, they're a cap team.

Sure, they could go out and bargain bin shop, but those are more short term guys that aren't helping your roster beyond this season.

They can still upgrade at the deadline matching both offer sheets. It's just more dollar in dollar out, which is no different than previous years.

 

[Soundwave]

The other problems with matching on Broberg

1.) Bouchard would 100% be within his rights to say he's worth 3x what Broberg is, Broberg is getting this for basically 9 solid games (lol), Bouchard just had a playoff run where he tied/surpassed some historical NHL records. The ask for Bouchard could reasonably start at 12 per.

2.) The pressure on Broberg to live up to this deal would be immense, every bad game or mistake he makes would be magnified in this market especially. Not sure if he's ready for that. At least in St. Louis, hockey is popular but it's not like the no.1 talk of the town 24/7.

The money from dumping Kane is supposed to go to Draisaitl and Bouchard's extensions too, it's not supposed to go freaking to Broberg, lol. He was supposed to be a budget option for the next few years.

 

[Louis Cypher]

Not sure why everyone keeps saying Ceci is going to get traded. Unless there is a right shot D coming back I seriously doubt he gets moved. Nurse or Kulak are the moves

 

[belair]

Not sure why everyone keeps saying Ceci is going to get traded. Unless there is a right shot D coming back I seriously doubt he gets moved. Nurse or Kulak are the moves

The Oilers signed Stecher and Josh Brown this summer. There is no reality where Nurse gets moved.

 

[McBooya42]

Not sure why everyone keeps saying Ceci is going to get traded. Unless there is a right shot D coming back I seriously doubt he gets moved. Nurse or Kulak are the moves

Nurse isn't going anywhere. Ceci will be the one moving for an upgrade. I think the Oilers walk from both and had already prepped themselves to do so with the FA signings and trades done by Jackson. We have a few players that could step into the 4th line to replace Holloway, and we already have Stetcher for the 3rd pairing RHD. We haven't even considered tryouts yet either. There will be an opportunity for some players to come in that haven't signed that will be willing to play for cheap (hello Barrie, welcome back), and make a run for the cup.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

The oilers have 4 options:

1. Sign Both

PROS:
You get to keep Broberg and Holloway

- Oil secure scarce young prime year talent to extend winning window
- Kane LTIR gives some time to execute roster moves to fit in both young NHL players

CONS:
6.9M against the cap.
Kane on LTIR is temporary.
Ceci or Kulak will need to be traded.
We still need a RHD upgrade for Nurse.

- Oilers create huge budget issue with cap compliance and unknown duration of Kane's LTIR.
- Risk of bad decisions required to balance cap when Kane is healthy

2. Sign Neither

CONS:
You lose Broberg and Holloway.

- Oil compromise sustaining winning window with only Savoie as NHL ready top six talent
- Subject to market uncertainty (availability & price points) and expending more limited assets to seek viable replacement talent
- Oil organization turns 2 young pedigree NHL players with Cup Final experience into 2 & 3rd round picks

PROS:
Oilers will have cap space and flexibility
You aren't worried about Kane coming back from LTIR.
You can still trade Ceci and use his cap space elsewhere.
You get draft picks to trade for an upgrade/replacement.
You can still upgrade your right side defence.

3. Sign Holloway

PROS:
Oilers will have some cap space and flexibility
You can still trade Ceci or Kulak and use his cap space elsewhere.
You get a 2nd round draft pick to trade for an upgrade/replacement.
You can still upgrade your right side defence.

CONS:
You lose Broberg. Oiler d pipeline is 3+ years away with less upside, Akey and Wanner
You lose some cap flexibility.
You still a little worried about Kane coming back from LTIR.
Ceci might stick around until you find an upgrade.

4. Sign Broberg

PROS:
You get to keep Broberg.
Likely means that Kulak (&) Cody Ceci (at deadline are) is traded.

- Likely succession plan in place for Ekholm in 2-3 years. D-men swap roster spots extending Ekholm's impact through longer window.
- Short-term flexibility to play both d-sides to support team need

CONS:
4.6M against the cap. Critical cheap value contract is gone
Kane on LTIR is temporary.
We won't be able to upgrade our RHD to play with Nurse.

Personally, I don't think Broberg is good enough to be a capable RHD with Nurse, so I don't commit that money to Broberg. I still trade Ceci now or at the deadline to improve (target a guy like Larsson). Holloway I go back and forth on because he isn't as much of an overpay but I don't see him as being hard to replace. I also see Kane coming back at some point, which pushes a 2.3M player further down the lineup.

Overdue love for your avatar by the way. haha.

This is a decent matrix which maybe others can build on. It's a good exercise - thank you! I've added a couple.

A question I have - shouldn't trading Kulak be an option ($2.75 vs $3.25). Install Broberg at 3LD, keep veteran Ceci until trade deadline for update then?

 

[FlameChampion]

Not sure why everyone keeps saying Ceci is going to get traded. Unless there is a right shot D coming back I seriously doubt he gets moved. Nurse or Kulak are the moves

This is kinda the problem with matching Broberg. People are claiming hes better as a LD. Even if we match we probably still have a RD problem.

At 4.6m he has to be on the second pairing. So unless the team is moving Nurse for cap or a RD, we aren’t really putting Broberg in a position to succeed anyway. Even if he plays RD with Nurse, I think we are setting him up to fail. And the pitch forks will be out for him after accepting an offer sheet at 4.6.

I don’t really want to talk about Nurse anymore because its been beat to death but it is what it is. And we all know hes not getting moved.

 

[McDoused]

That's the thing though. The Oilers don't have the cap flexibility. They're still going into LTI. And as it stands, they're a cap team.

Sure, they could go out and bargain bin shop, but those are more short term guys that aren't helping your roster beyond this season.

They can still upgrade at the deadline matching both offer sheets. It's just more dollar in dollar out, which is no different than previous years.

Its relative. If the Oilers let Broberg and Holloway walk, they have 6.9M more cap flexibility. Regardless if they match, Kane can still go on LTIR and Ceci can get traded.

If the Oilers match both offer sheets, they will have committed that 6.9M to Broberg and Holloway. In order to do that, they will have to exhaust their other cost cutting measures in trading Ceci and LTIR Kane.

Fast forward to the deadline. Kane might be coming off LTIR and you might have to make a trade just to bring him back. Best case scenario, you trade Kane but it doesn't open up any extra space. In addition, ceci has already been traded and you have no cap. You look around to move cap out and you can't trade Broberg and Holloway. Who are we trading? Kulak? Skinner? Henrique? We will robbing Paul to pay Peter.

 

[McDoused]

- Oil secure scarce young prime year talent to extend winning window
- Kane LTIR gives some time to execute roster moves to fit in both young NHL players


- Oilers create huge budget issue with cap compliance and unknown duration of Kane's LTIR. Some risk of bad decisions required to balance cap when Kane is healthy

- Oil compromise sustaining winning window with only Savoie as NHL ready top six talent
- Subject to market uncertainty (availability & price points) and expending more limited assets to seek viable replacement talent
- Oil organization turns 2 young pedigree NHL players with Cup Final experience into 2 & 3rd round picks

- Likely succession plan in place for Ekholm in 2-3 years. D-men swap roster spots extending Ekholm's impact through longer window.
- Short-term flexibility to play both d-sides to support team need

Overdue love for your avatar by the way. haha.

This is a decent matrix which maybe others can build on. It's a good exercise - thank you! I've added a couple.

A question I have - shouldn't trading Kulak be an option ($2.75 vs $3.25). Install Broberg at 3LD, keep veteran Ceci until trade deadline for update then?

I appreciate the comments but I'm basically treating this as a balance sheet.

For example, when I say "Get to Keep Broberg and Holloway" that would include "secure young talent". Otherwise, I would be counting the same thing twice. Their may be a lot of positive things tied to keeping Broberg (like how you like that he can play both sides) but that would be part of the larger pro.

I also wouldn't include "LTIR Kane" because you can do that for literally all 4 options, so it's a wash.

I already had the picks as a positive, as gaining picks should never be under the cons.

I've seen peoples with pro/con lists try and argue for something because there are "so many more pros" but really it's just one pro listed multiple times.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Generally I imagine teams defer to their own players. Their toi is similar at Vinnie 15:44 and Brown 14:45 on a non playoff team. Desharnais was a solid role guy on the Oil PK who showed growth in his game as an age 28 peak years player. The NHLEdge comps between them: NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Comparisons

On a weak blueline and especially vulnerable right side, the Oilers are facing a very difficult decision to go down two homegrown guys on the weak right side.

I think easily the most likely scenario that Edmonton management got caught with their pants down thinking it was business as usual smoking out their RFA's as had been their summer tendency.

While I think they could have been a bit more aware and proactive I don’t know if it’s completely fair to say they got caught with their pants down. It’s pretty standard procedure for GM’s to leave their non arb rfa’s to later in the summer as they work out their roster or work to create cap space and mostly gm’s have observed that unspoken tradition because they understand they’re all living in glass houses. Even Armstrong has been in a tight spot with rfa’s in the last and I’m sure he’d probably feel a little differently if the shoe was on the other foot. It kind of reminds me of racing when a guy at the back of the field starts racing a guy who’s fighting for the lead and is lapping the mid packer. It’s poor taste to race against a guy who’s fighting for the win just because you want to finish a spot or two higher, just stay out of the way because eventually you’ll be that guy and people remember.

 

[belair]

Its relative. If the Oilers let Broberg and Holloway walk, they have 6.9M more cap flexibility. Regardless if they match, Kane can still go on LTIR and Ceci can get traded.

If the Oilers match both offer sheets, they will have committed that 6.9M to Broberg and Holloway. In order to do that, they will have to exhaust their other cost cutting measures in trading Ceci and LTIR Kane.

Fast forward to the deadline. Kane might be coming off LTIR and you might have to make a trade just to bring him back. Best case scenario, you trade Kane but it doesn't open up any extra space. In addition, ceci has already been traded and you have no cap. You look around to move cap out and you can't trade Broberg and Holloway. Who are we trading? Kulak? Skinner? Henrique? We will robbing Paul to pay Peter.

Yes, you're committing that cap to Broberg and Holloway. That's a forgone conclusion. But how much are you spending trying to replace the projected roles they were earmarked to fill moving forward? Which players of that skillset are we targeting in either market and which additional assets are we parting with to make that a reality?

When it comes to making a deadline deal, we're not really in the market for a big splash. It's second pairing right shot defenseman. And odds are it's a rental. That means that you can offset salaries moving a Kulak, or a Perry or a Kane out. You can get maximum retention of necessary.

I've looked at this from both sides of the fence and I still have my reservations about Broberg and the likelihood of keeping him beyond 2026, but I think he represents a big part of our team's ability to replenish talent from within. We get a lot older letting those two go.

 

[bobbythebrain]

Not sure why everyone keeps saying Ceci is going to get traded. Unless there is a right shot D coming back I seriously doubt he gets moved. Nurse or Kulak are the moves

Lefty Righty shouldn't be the focus. Improving the d should.
Nurse/Ceci are soooooo bad that subtracting one is priority #1, and since Nurse contract is immovable, Ceci should be moved at all costs

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I appreciate the comments but I'm basically treating this as a balance sheet.

For example, when I say "Get to Keep Broberg and Holloway" that would include "secure young talent". Otherwise, I would be counting the same thing twice. Their may be a lot of positive things tied to keeping Broberg (like how you like that he can play both sides) but that would be part of the larger pro.

I also wouldn't include "LTIR Kane" because you can do that for literally all 4 options, so it's a wash.

I already had the picks as a positive, as gaining picks should never be under the cons.

I've seen peoples with pro/con lists try and argue for something because there are "so many more pros" but really it's just one pro listed multiple times.

Gotta. Thanks again.

I think it's a viable consideration to move Kulak before season for a pick. This gets them cap compliant with Kane's LTIR. Stability on the blueline. Then Ceci is moved at the deadline for 2RD upgrade. Assorted roster adjustments made pending on dollars of Ceci upgrade.

Stated by many the great unknown is Kane's injuries and recovery time.

 

[FlameChampion]

Delete

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

While I think they could have been a bit more aware and proactive I don’t know if it’s completely fair to say they got caught with their pants down. It’s pretty standard procedure for GM’s to leave their non arb rfa’s to later in the summer as they work out their roster or work to create cap space and mostly gm’s have observed that unspoken tradition because they understand they’re all living in glass houses. Even Armstrong has been in a tight spot with rfa’s in the last and I’m sure he’d probably feel a little differently if the shoe was on the other foot. It kind of reminds me of racing when a guy at the back of the field starts racing a guy who’s fighting for the lead and is lapping the mid packer. It’s poor taste to race against a guy who’s fighting for the win just because you want to finish a spot or two higher, just stay out of the way because eventually you’ll be that guy and people remember.

It's standard procedure until it isn't though. This is the first real bump year post covid so the risk element was heightened. Fact it was talked about pre-free agency by the GM who laid the stink bomb was enough to raise antennas.

Every GM is going to feel different if they are the hunter or the prey. The old way or we've always done it this way approach to business has just been smoked. What I view favourably as a modern, creative thinking management group has just learned this hard reality.

Your example if I follow this is sportsmanship but what we're talking about here is business and business conducted within the bounds of agreed acceptance by all involved.

EDIT: Just to add I don't think offer sheets have been limited by some sense of benevolence to one another as GM. Likely moreso an appreciation that this is a highly inflationary tactic that seldom works. In its long history the NHL has dabbled in collusion practices to keep its biggest costs down (players salaries). Not saying that here but there's a shared interest in a closed business environment to put breaks on salaries.

 

[AM]

Stauffer confirms that, in January, Ken Holland was told to sign Broberg and Holloway to contracts very quickly.

Sounds like Holland fell asleep. WOW

If these were the contracts we can get them now.

 

[McDoused]

Yes, you're committing that cap to Broberg and Holloway. That's a forgone conclusion. But how much are you spending trying to replace the projected roles they were earmarked to fill moving forward. Which players of that skillset are we targeting in either market and which additional assets are we parting with to make that a reality?

When it comes to making a deadline deal, we're not really in the market for a big splash. It's second pairing right shot defenseman. And odds are it's a rental. That means that you can offset salaries moving a Kulak, or a Perry or a Kane out. You can get maximum retention of necessary.

I've looked at this from both sides of the fence and I still have my reservations about Broberg and the likelihood of keeping him beyond 2026, but I think he represents a big part of our team's ability to replenish talent from within. We get a lot older letting those two go.

Perry doesn't make enough and Kane will already be allocated if we matched. Lets assume that the Oilers match on both. they would have a 22 man roster with less than $1M cap depending on who is up/down.

If the Oilers don't match and run guys like Jarventie or Savoie and Barrie / DeAngelo, here is what it looks like going into the deadline:

This way we can bring Kane back when he's healthy and still have 2M+ cap so 4M+ (or 8M+ double retained) player to come back in a trade at the deadline.

 

[belair]

Perry doesn't make enough and Kane will already be allocated if we matched. Lets assume that the Oilers match on both. they would have a 22 man roster with less than $1M cap depending on who is up/down.

View attachment 901295

View attachment 901296

If the Oilers don't match and run guys like Jarventie or Savoie and Barrie / DeAngelo, here is what it looks like going into the deadline:

View attachment 901297

View attachment 901298

This way we can bring Kane back when he's healthy and still have 2M+ cap so 4M+ (or 8M+ double retained) player to come back in a trade at the deadline.

I'm still not that psyched about the prospect of a third line Evander Kane, nor do I think we're much farther ahead with Kulak seeing his minutes reduced for much of last season.

The playoffs were a springboard for these two prospects. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that both take significant steps in larger roles this season.

 

[spot]

Sign Kubalik and Barrie to cheap-ish deals if they're amenable? Or do we want to leave spots potentially open for Jarventie and Savoie and Lavoie?

I think we have to leave spots open for training cano. I think Jarventie will surprise and we will make it to the TDL with our current defence just fine all while battling for 1st in the division

 

[AM]

I'd be way more in favor of letting Broberg walk if it's for a 1st and a 3rd (like it's suppose to be). But a 2nd and a 3rd rounder for our 2 former 1st rounders is just really bad.

You get 6m salary room too. It’s hard when players don’t want to play on your team. Luckily alot of players do want to come to Edmonton.