Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Does Bowman Make His Mark on the Team Before Training Camp?

[StoveTopStauffer]

Get rid of Ceci and sign Barrie for like 900k. Make a move at the TDL for another dman. Barrie can QB the 2nd unit PP since we use them again.

Going halfway through the season with Nurse and Barrie on the 2nd pair is not the worst thing. Can probably pick up a stronger defensive minded player and drop Barrie to the 7th.

 

[K1984]

Get rid of Ceci and sign Barrie for like 900k. Make a move at the TDL for another dman. Barrie can QB the 2nd unit PP since we use them again.

Going halfway through the season with Nurse and Barrie on the 2nd pair is not the worst thing. Can probably pick up a stronger defensive minded player and drop Barrie to the 7th.

A defenseman that stinks in his own end, is small, and can't skate isn't what Nurse needs. A Nurse - Barrie pair would have people here begging for Ceci back no later than about a month in.

Ceci is not the ideal d-man on the right side, that is for sure. However, it would be a massive mistake to just assume that the magic RS D man that is the answer to our woes will just be available at the deadline. An unforced downgrading the roster on the hope that an improvement will be available down the line is how teams and managers f*** themselves.

Ceci is mediocre and not what we need, however he is miles better than most people make him out to be. He can play on a contending team and even play well on a contending team, he's just not quite the right fit. Still not a reason to unceremoniously dump him only to search for an unnamed guy that we hope is better.

 

[oobga]

?? Yes, sorry the blueline WITHOUT Ceci is much better.

Except for game 7's of course

I really hope Bowman can pull something off to fix the D. Still need a big improvement there. If we can work the Kane LTIR thing for a full season of 5M extra space, we are just one solid trade away from being a real contender. One that doesn't need coach bump win streaks and once in 3 decade performances from both a forward and a D to mask the pathetic rest of the roster. An actual contender.

 

[K1984]

Except for game 7's of course

I really hope Bowman can pull something off to fix the D. Still need a big improvement there. If we can work the Kane LTIR thing for a full season of 5M extra space, we are just one solid trade away from being a real contender. One that doesn't need coach bump win streaks and once in 3 decade performances from both a forward and a D to mask the pathetic rest of the roster. An actual contender.

I feel like a lot of what you're describing here is more coaching/room based than personnel based. From Tippett to Woodcroft, the depth on this team usually doesn't choose to show up until about January. Most seasons go like this since Tippett arrived:

October - November - McDavid and Drai light it up to the point that people start talking about them posting 170+ points. Meanwhile, there are early November memes and headlines saying things like "McDavid and Draisaitl points this season - 50 - everyone else - 15." Team wins purely on the back of McDavid and Drai.

December - McDavid and Drai's production steps back a bit after being run roughshod through the first month. Depth still stinks, team piles up losses as a result.

January - April - either a coach gets fired, or depth players finally decide to start playing hockey. Team tears through the rest of the season.

It's clockwork. This team will win the President's Trophy going away if we get strong contributions from depth immediately.

 

[Soundwave]

If Kane is going on LTIR, wouldn't they be able to sign Barrie just for shits n' giggles if they want?

 

[McBooya42]

Broberg and Holloway aren't even full-time NHL players. They should be grateful to have a one way league minimum deal and be penciled onto the roster.

I actually disagree with this. I think the playoffs cemented their spots, and I also think they're both going to have good seasons.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Except for game 7's of course

I really hope Bowman can pull something off to fix the D. Still need a big improvement there. If we can work the Kane LTIR thing for a full season of 5M extra space, we are just one solid trade away from being a real contender. One that doesn't need coach bump win streaks and once in 3 decade performances from both a forward and a D to mask the pathetic rest of the roster. An actual contender.

No game 7s in the regular season.

Either way, the team would be better served to start the year with Ceci in another city.

 

[McHelpus]

If Kane is going on LTIR, wouldn't they be able to sign Barrie just for shits n' giggles if they want?

Yeah the could, but we saw what was effective. They need a tough gritty dman that gets under the other teams skin.

 

[ottawah]

Thats kind of the problem, isn't it? We just can't afford a Kulak-Ceci 3rd pair.

but do we bet the season on moving Broberg to a 2nd pairing RHD after a 3 game audition .........

 

[ottawah]

I'm all for acquiring a guy who can help bring down our goals against. Ceci has been a massive hole defensively this year.

So here is my issue. You say you need someone to help bring the GA down, but not a single stat in that post was GA. If you switch to GA/60, you see he is a solid D man.

His 5v5 GA/60 over the last 5 years is below 2.5, well better than Nurse and Bouchard. He was below 2 in the playoffs without Nurse, over 4 with. And this completely overlooks the fact he has been a very strong PK player for the past 5 years as well. All this while generally playing the toughest minutes on his team.

He has his warts, but when it comes to GA, he has a very positive track record.

 

[jukon]

I actually disagree with this. I think the playoffs cemented their spots, and I also think they're both going to have good seasons.

And I'd be happy to pay them after they have a good season. I don't get why so many kids get paid for potential. Earn your salary please.

 

[brentashton]

And I'd be happy to pay them after they have a good season. I don't get why so many kids get paid for potential. Earn your salary please.

The NHL has morphed in the last 10 years. Teams have decided that paying a solid vet for his years of service is a poor way to spend salary cap - high salary for diminishing returns - Marleau, Thornton, the list is long, so they are moving to small bridges and bigger paydays in the second/third contracts for potential success on a 22-25 year old. @Fourier would explain it much better.

I believe it will turn in 15 years again, but for now, that’s the model, especially with the belief that the salary caps I’ll grow exponentially and allow you to erase missteps.

 

[McTonyBrar]

Seravalli seems very encouraging on oilers now about Leon.

It seems like, at least to me, that it was 8 years always. Seravalli said the cap hit will surprise Oiler fans in a good way

 

[McDoused]

but do we bet the season on moving Broberg to a 2nd pairing RHD after a 3 game audition .........

The logical play is to get a legitimate top 4 RHD defenceman via trade. Maybe Broberg/Stetcher can fill that role until the deadline. Moving on from Ceci puts us in a better position to make that move when a dman does become available.

So here is my issue. You say you need someone to help bring the GA down, but not a single stat in that post was GA. If you switch to GA/60, you see he is a solid D man.

His 5v5 GA/60 over the last 5 years is below 2.5, well better than Nurse and Bouchard. He was below 2 in the playoffs without Nurse, over 4 with. And this completely overlooks the fact he has been a very strong PK player for the past 5 years as well. All this while generally playing the toughest minutes on his team.

He has his warts, but when it comes to GA, he has a very positive track record.

I mean that's fair, my first post was SF%, CF%, SCF%, xGF% and HDCF% which all showed Ceci ranked at or near the bottom of the team. I didn't specifically outline goals against. I dont know why you would. I would love to see the stats supporting how good Ceci is defensively. If you could post this years, I admit Ceci looked better in Pittsburgh and his first year here.

My other post specifically outlined how attributing individual success to the PK is hard to do (as it's a team stat) but he also ranked as either the worst or second worst dman on the PK. I think his contributions to the PK are overstated and I haven't see anything to suggest he's a good penalty killer relative to his teammates.

From what I can tell Nurse (28) and Ceci (21) had the highest and second highest goals against 5v5 in the playoffs (for the entire NHL not just the Oilers). That pairing was on the ice for 5 GF 5v5 in the playoffs and 12 GA 5v5. It doesn't really matter how good he is away from Nurse We can't afford him on the 3rd and his cap needs to be used towards someone that can play with Nurse.

Holding onto Ceci is a half-measure.

 

[WaitingForUser]

Seravalli seems very encouraging on oilers now about Leon.

It seems like, at least to me, that it was 8 years always. Seravalli said the cap hit will surprise Oiler fans in a good way

13.3 still be the highest paid player

 

[foshizzle]

A defenseman that stinks in his own end, is small, and can't skate isn't what Nurse needs. A Nurse - Barrie pair would have people here begging for Ceci back no later than about a month in.

Ceci is not the ideal d-man on the right side, that is for sure. However, it would be a massive mistake to just assume that the magic RS D man that is the answer to our woes will just be available at the deadline. An unforced downgrading the roster on the hope that an improvement will be available down the line is how teams and managers f*** themselves.

Ceci is mediocre and not what we need, however he is miles better than most people make him out to be. He can play on a contending team and even play well on a contending team, he's just not quite the right fit. Still not a reason to unceremoniously dump him only to search for an unnamed guy that we hope is better.

Oilers were in the finals and Ceci was horrible. His xGAR% was 2 last year (bottom 2% of defensemen who play his role in the league), he got eaten alive in GF%, while being the bottom of the league in zone denials and successful zone exits. He isn’t mediocre, he is barely an NHL defenseman

 

[McTonyBrar]

13.3 still be the highest paid player

Does it really matter lol? This is Leon Draisaitl. Next year the highest paid player will be Connor McDavid.

Seravalli also said that he believes there is way more than a 90% chance that the Leon and Connor contracts will be less than 30 million combined

 

[MessierII]

That duo got shit on in the finals didn't they?

Define getting shit on? All I know is nurse with ceci played 15 games he had 2 points and went -12. Nurse with Broberg played 10 games he had 4 points and was +3.

 

[Soundwave]

Oilers were in the finals and Ceci was horrible. His xGAR% was 2 last year (bottom 2% of defensemen who play his role in the league), he got eaten alive in GF%, while being the bottom of the league in zone denials and successful zone exits. He isn’t mediocre, he is barely an NHL defenseman

What are those numbers like without Nurse though?

I feel like you have to isolate both of their stats without each other.

They're just terrible together and bring out the worst in each other but apart it feels like their play improves a ton.

 

[Captain Controversy]

I'm calling it. Leon signs for 12.97 and mcdavid signs for 13.29

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Define getting shit on? All I know is nurse with ceci played 15 games he had 2 points and went -12. Nurse with Broberg played 10 games he had 4 points and was +3.

34% corsi, 37.7% shots, 30.21 xGF%, 33.8 SCF%, 33.33% HDCF.

The only reason they look decent with goal share is a ridiculous 18% shooting, and a 94.74% save.

They were not a good pair.

Unless you think that pair is likely to repeat that on ice shooting.

 

[MessierII]

34% corsi, 37.7% shots, 30.21 xGF%, 33.8 SCF%, 33.33% HDCF.

The only reason they look decent with goal share is a ridiculous 18% shooting, and a 94.74% save.

They were not a good pair.

At the end of the day results are results. I’ve never considered on ice save % a pure luck thing when it comes to D men. Who knows how those %’s work out over a season. In the playoffs advanced stats get thrown out the window. You either score or you don’t. You either win or you lose the rest is just noise.

 

[McBooya42]

34% corsi, 37.7% shots, 30.21 xGF%, 33.8 SCF%, 33.33% HDCF.

The only reason they look decent with goal share is a ridiculous 18% shooting, and a 94.74% save.

They were not a good pair.

Unless you think that pair is likely to repeat that on ice shooting.

Not sustainable, no. The warts would show quickly.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

At the end of the day results are results. I’ve never considered on ice save % a pure luck thing when it comes to D men. Who knows how those %’s work out over a season. In the playoffs advanced stats get thrown out the window. You either score or you don’t. You either win or you lose the rest is just noise.

I highly doubt offensive dynamo nurse and broberg are driving a 18% shooting.

That’s would be like 7% higher than when mcdavids on the ice.

If they continue to get out chanced and outshot like they did in the playoffs, they’d get exposed fairly quickly

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Seravalli seems very encouraging on oilers now about Leon.

It seems like, at least to me, that it was 8 years always. Seravalli said the cap hit will surprise Oiler fans in a good way

It's never been anything other than 8 years all along if you only pay attention to media that has any sort of credibility.

Friedman, Seravalli, Stauffer. They've never said anything other than 8 years.