Rumor: Rumors and Proposals Thread: Hallsy Take 2?

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ConnorMcNugesaitl

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Sep 23, 2012
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Russell will get traded.

If sanity prevails he will, as long as they can find a taker.

I'm also not sure re-signing Kassian should be a priority considering the player disappeared for a year and a half after his last contract extension. He seems like a prime candidate to be a teams Ufa mistake next summer.
 

nexttothemoon

and again...
Jan 30, 2010
30,250
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When players aren't scoring you have to look at who is at least producing some shots and shot attempts to see who is trying to generate "something"...

Individual corsi per player... (stats from corsica.hockey)

1 PRussell... 12.9 per 60 minutes
2 Archibald... 12 per 60
3 Nygard... 10.7 per 60
4 Chiasson... 9.7 per 60
5 Jurco... 9.5 per 60
6 Khaira... 7.5 per 60
7 Granlund...6.7 per 60
8 Sheahan... 4.7 per 60
9 Haas... 4.6 per 60

Most TOI on the PK from that group so far...

1 Khaira 17.02
2 Sheahan 16.99
3 Archibald 15.5
4 Granlund 12.3
5 PRussell 9.4
6 Nygard .4
7 Chiasson .1
8 Haas .02
9 Jurco 0

Basically as a quick take on those stats... if you aren't in the top half of either list... you are either not a major contributor to the offensive generation... or not a major contributor defensively/on the PK.

So who were/are the odd men out...



1 Archibald is near the top on both and has the rep of being a solid 2-way energy player... obviously no offense has shown up yet but he's at least generating some chances. (As a bonus stat... zero goals against while he's been on the PK).

2 PRussell is generating shots/chances and he's a decent defensive player as well. I think he's at least secure enough on the roster to hold down a #13/14 F role.

3 Khaira doesn't generate much offensively at all but the team uses him in that key role on the PK... which probably makes him safe on the roster.

4 Nygard I thought was doing reasonably well as he was still adjusting to the NHL pace and style of play. I think he's ok on the roster as well.

5 Sheahan... basically zero offense but he's a key on the PK and he'll be safe because he's a strong faceoff guy as well.

6 Granlund... very little offense so far but he has that secondary role on the PK that's saving his skin so far.

7 Chiasson generates chances.. obviously isn't potting anything and that's a problem because he's not a top defensive contributor.. but I think he's safe as well because they'll give him more time to start cashing in his chances.

8 Jurco... zero role on the PK and his offensive contribution has been middle of the pack in terms of individual shot generation. He's similar to Chiasson... needs to produce soon because his offense is the only thing that will keep him on the roster.

9 Haas was near the basement in each list up above and ended up in the AHL.
 
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belair

Win it for Ben!
Apr 9, 2010
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We're talking about a 22 and 23 year old in the last year of their waiver exemption. Where does "rushing prospects" come into play there?

Larsson hasn't played top competition for two seasons now and he's been getting murdered by that secondary competition. It isn't 2016 anymore. He's been arguably the team's worst defenseman for close to two full seasons now.
The part where you're assuming that a player with ten games of quality NHL experience is suddenly relied upon to play regular top four NHL minutes with no fall back option in the instance the player suddenly hits a roadblock.

And whatever source you have that's telling you that Larsson isn't facing quality competition is probably also telling you that Benning sees some of the hardest minutes on the team. IE, it's false.

Understandably Larsson has struggled in recent seasons. He's had a heavier workload in the top four dealing with injuries to Sekera and Klefbom who were relied upon to carry a lot of that workload in 2016/17 and he's struggled with injuries himself along with the death of his father. He's 26. This isn't the end of the road for him.

When it comes to Larsson I honestly struggle to see how a defensive defenseman can look good in a situation where the only time he comes out on the positive end is when that top line is on the ice. Is it his fault that the majority of this roster outside of its top three forwards provides little to no offensive support?

It's difficult to quantify defense because it's defense. But in the instances you see other teams pinning our top lines in our defensive zone, it becomes abundantly clear that defending the cycle is incredibly important in terms of tipping the scales possession wise. Getting the puck back is important.

I'll take average PK work for 2 minutes per game and an actual impact in the other 10 minutes per game they play over what we have now.

There's basically no correlation between PK% and overall standings. Three teams in the top 10 last season finished with a PK ranked higher than 16th.
We've had some of the worst PK units for the past couple seasons. You can't tell me that preventing goals isn't an important part of winning hockey games.

Of course you hope for better results at even strength but you take the gains you can get, which at this point has been a night and day improvement of the PK. You throw a rookie in a depth role, you aren't putting him in a great position to produce anyways as seen by our handling of Puljujarvi. Meanwhile your PK ends up dead last in the NHL and you're devaluing your prospect depth.

As the season progresses you'll see some of those pretenders moved along and some prospects might even get looks. But making long-term decisions relying on these rookies to assume roles is how you ruin them. It's also how you end up paying them more than they're actually worth. See Benning, Caggiula.
 
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Soundwave

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Mar 1, 2007
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Think Adam Larsson is gone for a forward sooner or later.

Plain as day this team needs forward depth and we have Bear, Persson, and Benning on the right side already and Bouchard coming soon.
 
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McDNicks17

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The part where you're assuming that a player with ten games of quality NHL experience is suddenly relied upon to play regular top four NHL minutes with no fall back option in the instance the player suddenly hits a roadblock.

And whatever source you have that's telling you that Larsson isn't facing quality competition is probably also telling you that Benning sees some of the hardest minutes on the team. IE, it's false.

Understandably Larsson has struggled in recent seasons. He's had a heavier workload in the top four dealing with injuries to Sekera and Klefbom who were relied upon to carry a lot of that workload in 2016/17 and he's struggled with injuries himself along with the death of his father. He's 26. This isn't the end of the road for him.

When it comes to Larsson I honestly struggle to see how a defensive defenseman can look good in a situation where the only time he comes out on the positive end is when that top line is on the ice. Is it his fault that the majority of this roster outside of its top three forwards provides little to no offensive support?

It's difficult to quantify defense because it's defense. But in the instances you see other teams pinning our top lines in our defensive zone, it becomes abundantly clear that defending the cycle is incredibly important in terms of tipping the scales possession wise. Getting the puck back is important.

You're focusing on the wrong thing as far as defense goes.

Breaking the cycle isn't important. What you do with the puck after you do is. It's why the big, defensive defenseman is close to extinct. Bear spends so little time in his own zone because of his ability to find short passes to transition. Persson is the same way. I have far more faith in them keeping up their level of play than I do in Larsson learning to move the puck at an NHL level.

Same goes for Russell and Benning. If you can't move the puck, you're a replacement level player. It doesn't matter how much experience or grit they have, they aren't making it a better hockey team.

We've had some of the worst PK units for the past couple seasons. You can't tell me that preventing goals isn't an important part of winning hockey games.

Of course you hope for better results at even strength but you take the gains you can get, which at this point has been a night and day improvement of the PK. You throw a rookie in a depth role, you aren't putting him in a great position to produce anyways as seen by our handling of Puljujarvi. Meanwhile your PK ends up dead last in the NHL and you're devaluing your prospect depth.

As the season progresses you'll see some of those pretenders moved along and some prospects might even get looks. But making long-term decisions relying on these rookies to assume roles is how you ruin them. It's also how you end up paying them more than actually worth. See Benning, Caggiula.

Sure, having a good PK is a nice bonus, but like I said in my last post, there's almost no correlation between PK% and wins. Only five playoff teams had a PK ranked higher than 16th last season. Even strength is vastly more important and logically it should be considering PK players play about 80% of their time at even strength.

Keeping guys like Granlund and Khaira in the lineup means you're basically forfeiting 10 minutes of even strength each for a minute and a half of decent PKing. It's just not worth the trade off.

"Roleplayers" and token veterans have long been a dead concept for good NHL teams.
 
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Pointteen

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Jun 9, 2008
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Think Adam Larsson is gone for a forward sooner or later.

Plain as day this team needs forward depth and we have Bear, Persson, and Benning on the right side already and Bouchard coming soon.


Maybe, but I can also look at tshr and say the wheels can easily fall off on those three inexperienced players.

Then we're talking about moving Russell too, suddenly our D is very, very young.
 

SupremeTeam16

5-14-6-1
May 31, 2013
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We really need a 3C who is strong defensively but also has scoring ability to push Sheahan to the 4th line. Sheahan and Archibald can make up 2/3 of a line that can handle heavy Dzone starts and hard forechecking/cycling. They are also a solid pk unit.

what are some names you guys think would make a good 3C who may be available and we could fit under the cap with maybe Gagner moving out or with retention.

Tierney
Pageau
Staal
Roslovic
Strome (Lol)
 

Heavy Dee

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May 29, 2005
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I see some flames fans pitching Gaudreau for a signed Hall. Hometown boy for hometown boy.
 

belair

Win it for Ben!
Apr 9, 2010
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You're focusing on the wrong thing as far as defense goes.

Breaking the cycle isn't important. What you do with the puck after you do is. It's why the big, defensive defenseman is close to extinct. Bear spends so little time in his own zone because of his ability to find short passes to transition. Persson is the same way. I have far more faith in them keeping up their level of play than I do in Larsson learning to move the puck at an NHL level.

Same goes for Russell and Benning. If you can't move the puck, you're a replacement level player. It doesn't matter how much experience or grit they have, they aren't making it a better hockey team.

I can assure you I'm not because you can't make a breakout pass if you don't have the puck.

With the criticism guys like Larsson, Russell and Nurse receive in regards to their ability to breakout of their zone you'd almost imagine that they never make clean passes.

These are NHL players. Sure some guys have high-end ability to make those passes, but in the instances some players struggle in that regard, they tend to defer to their partners to assist in breakouts.

Defense is actually the ability to prevent the other team from scoring. Defense is the ability to anticipate the opponent's attack and the ability to utilize positioning to physically separate the opponent from the puck. You know, the boring stuff that generally goes unnoticed.

Sure, having a good PK is a nice bonus, but like I said in my last post, there's almost no correlation between PK% and wins. Only five playoff teams had a PK ranked higher than 16th last season. Even strength is vastly more important and logically it should be considering PK players play about 80% of their time at even strength.

Keeping guys like Granlund and Khaira in the lineup means you're basically forfeiting 10 minutes of even strength each for a minute and a half of decent PKing. It's just not worth the trade off.

"Roleplayers" and token veterans have long been a dead concept for good NHL teams.
And like I said, assuming GA has no correlation to winning is incredibly false. The difference between the 16th best PK in the NHL and second-to-last was twenty goals last season. Thirty-two if we're talking the most effective unit in league. Does 32GA not correlate?

Assuming there's no difference in terms of assumed EV production between the veterans who you know are contributing on the PK and the rookies you feel inclined to throw into lineup, where exactly are you coming out ahead throwing them in there? Was Puljujarvi not enough of an example to show you that's a really bad way of managing your prospects?

When it comes to the bottom six, your offensive production is generally bad enough that goal prevention and puck possession/zone time become more of a priority.

The 'nice bonus' is the goal or two you might pop in every second or third game. An effective special teams unit is vital.
 
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Paralyzer008

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Jan 30, 2008
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I think something around Adam Larsson + Ondrej Kase makes sense for both sides, even though it's in-division. We'd probably have to add.
 

ConnorMcNugesaitl

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Sep 23, 2012
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I think it makes more sense to move Russell before Larsson, Russell can actually be fairly easily replaced internally.

Maybe Larsson goes but that's next summer at the earliest unless they're out of it by the deadline.

Ottawa wants another veteran, maybe they want Gagner?
 

TheNumber4

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Nov 11, 2011
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I think it makes more sense to move Russell before Larsson, Russell can actually be fairly easily replaced internally.

Maybe Larsson goes but that's next summer at the earliest unless they're out of it by the deadline.

Ottawa wants another veteran, maybe they want Gagner?

It does make more sense. If we need to trade a vet D, trade Russell then find a way to make the pairings work. I think Russell is what he is, and it's fine, he's a warrior for us. But Larss if he can get his head out of his ass still has potential to be an elite stay at home d-man.
 

ConnorMcNugesaitl

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Sep 23, 2012
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It does make more sense. If we need to trade a vet D, trade Russell then find a way to make the pairings work. I think Russell is what he is, and it's fine, he's a warrior for us. But Larss if he can get his head out of his ass still has potential to be an elite stay at home d-man.

I think the most natural pairings are:

Klefbom - Larsson

Nurse - Bear

Lagesson - Benning

Maybe Manning slots in sometimes for Lagesson and Persson fights with Benning for time.
 

TheNumber4

Registered User
Nov 11, 2011
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I think the most natural pairings are:

Klefbom - Larsson

Nurse - Bear

Lagesson - Benning

Maybe Manning slots in sometimes for Lagesson and Persson fights with Benning for time.

Bouch has to be slotting in next year though no?

Actually come to think of it, we should get rid of Russell AND Benning. That'd be a huge upgrade.
 

ToeMcDrag83

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Aug 25, 2010
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Would there be a basis for a deal around

Adam Larsson and Andreas Athansiou?

I'd like to think Yzerman/Holland relationship has some benefits.
Yzerman is a smart cookie though.

Does anyone recall any Tampa/Detroit deals done between the two of them?
Something with Filppula maybe?
 

belair

Win it for Ben!
Apr 9, 2010
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Benning likely gets moved in-season. I don't see any way he receives a QO at his clip and his role here is the easiest one to cover internally.

Additionally I'm certain there are teams that see some upside considering he's a bit of an advanced stats darling.
 

ToeMcDrag83

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Aug 25, 2010
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Russell-Larsson would actually be a really good 3rd pairing, albeit expensive for that role.
Off-season 2020 is where one or both of those names probably move.
 

MessierII

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Aug 10, 2011
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You're focusing on the wrong thing as far as defense goes.

Breaking the cycle isn't important. What you do with the puck after you do is. It's why the big, defensive defenseman is close to extinct. Bear spends so little time in his own zone because of his ability to find short passes to transition. Persson is the same way. I have far more faith in them keeping up their level of play than I do in Larsson learning to move the puck at an NHL level.

Same goes for Russell and Benning. If you can't move the puck, you're a replacement level player. It doesn't matter how much experience or grit they have, they aren't making it a better hockey team.



Sure, having a good PK is a nice bonus, but like I said in my last post, there's almost no correlation between PK% and wins. Only five playoff teams had a PK ranked higher than 16th last season. Even strength is vastly more important and logically it should be considering PK players play about 80% of their time at even strength.

Keeping guys like Granlund and Khaira in the lineup means you're basically forfeiting 10 minutes of even strength each for a minute and a half of decent PKing. It's just not worth the trade off.

"Roleplayers" and token veterans have long been a dead concept for good NHL teams.
That minute and a half of pk is way more likely to result in a goal against than 10 minutes of even strength play. If these guys could break even or close to it at even strength it would be worth it. With Juj that’s just not happening. I have a little more time for Grandlund because of his past accolades.
 

Bangers

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May 31, 2006
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Think Adam Larsson is gone for a forward sooner or later.

Plain as day this team needs forward depth and we have Bear, Persson, and Benning on the right side already and Bouchard coming soon.

While this is true, none of Persson, Bear or Bouchard are as good defensively or bring the rough element Larsson does (which is important against certain teams and in the playoffs).

If Larsson can't get his game back to what it was a few years ago, I'm ok with moving him on, but I think Benning will likely be moved on first.

With Persson and Bear, it's still early. Let's see what happens when they play over 50 games in a pro season.
 
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McDNicks17

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I can assure you I'm not because you can't make a breakout pass if you don't have the puck.

With the criticism guys like Larsson, Russell and Nurse receive in regards to their ability to breakout of their zone you'd almost imagine that they never make clean passes.

These are NHL players. Sure some guys have high-end ability to make those passes, but in the instances some players struggle in that regard, they tend to defer to their partners to assist in breakouts.

Defense is actually the ability to prevent the other team from scoring. Defense is the ability to anticipate the opponent's attack and the ability to utilize positioning to physically separate the opponent from the puck. You know, the boring stuff that generally goes unnoticed.

Tipp said it best. The best defense is playing in the other team's zone. Bear, Nurse, Klefbom and Persson do that. Larsson, Russell and Benning don't.

And like I said, assuming GA has no correlation to winning in incredibly false. The difference between the 16th best PK in the NHL and second-to-last was twenty goals last season. Thirty two if we're talking the most effective unit in league. Does 32GA not correlate?

Assuming there's no difference in terms of assumed EV production between the veterans who you know are contributing on the PK and the rookies you feel inclined to throw into lineup, where exactly are you coming out ahead throwing them in there? Was Puljujarvi not enough of an example to show you that's a really bad way of managing your prospects?

When it comes to the bottom six, your offensive production is generally bad enough that goal prevention and puck possession/zone time become more of a priority.

The 'nice bonus' is the goal or two you might pop in every second or third game. An effective special teams unit is vital.

I'm not sure why you're trying to conflate GA with PK%. Obviously there's correlation with GA and wins, but you were specifically talking about PK%. As I've already said, there's no correlation between wins and PK%. Five of the sixteen playoff teams last season had a PK ranked higher than 16th(aka above average). It absolutely is not "vital".

Why are we assuming more talented players would have no difference in even strength production? The whole premise we're talking about is having some players that can actually make an impact at 5v5 instead of offensive black holes like Granlund and Khaira for the sake of their PKing.


I think you're stuck in the past and I don't blame you because the Oilers are too.

Good NHL teams have puck-movers and at least a third line that's able to regularly chip in offense. Unfortunately the Oilers have Russell and Benning icing the puck every time they touch it and what looks like another season of historically bad depth scoring.
 

MessierII

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Aug 10, 2011
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Tipp said it best. The best defense is playing in the other team's zone. Bear, Nurse, Klefbom and Persson do that. Larsson, Russell and Benning don't.
At best your going to have the puck for maybe 60% of a hockey game. What about the other 40? Your way oversimplifying things. Every cup champion ever has a mix.
 

McDNicks17

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At best your going to have the puck for maybe 60% of a hockey game. What about the other 40? Your way oversimplifying things. Every cup champion ever has a mix.

When was the last time a Cup champ had a defensive defenseman with limited puck skills in their top4?
 
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