Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick #19: Jay O'Brien, C, MA-USHS --> Providence U

[Ghosts Beer]

Johnson is projected to be a top 10 pick.

And he should be rated highly.

But JOB was 19th overall. And Johnson at 17 shattered JOB’s production at 20. Combined with JOB’s very subpar production as a college freshman for a top-20 pick, it paints a pessimistic picture.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

I've only seen him play twice but I've gotten the vibe that even if the scoring doesn't pan out JOB at least has the explosiveness/skating, motor and good enough puck skills to end up begins solid bottom 6 guy. Not what you want from a 1st round pick but at least it's something. Plus like was stated earlier they have the option of not signing him and recouping a 2nd rounder.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Well, to be fair, I'm doubting him also. Just much less than most. But yeah, I get your point. Pretty much no one actually watches him play.

I don't blame anyone for not watching him. His games can be tough to find. The BCHL is pretty obscure, and Providence is a huge, boring chore to watch.

I just found it weird the sentiment surrounding him by the fanbase was so negative. Especially considering the reviews by the people watching his games were fairly positive.

Morin didn't get that treatment. Neither did Rubtsov when he started his statistical decline at Acadie-Bathurst.

To your point, I soured on both Morin & Rubtsov similarly to JOB.

Although I liked to the JOB pick better than both of those. And really disliked Morin at 11.

I think people got enamored with Morin’s raw physical package, & ridiculous Chara dreams. 6’7”, fast, & tough made some people view him as a unicorn. First things I noticed about him were brick hands, poor handling of pressure, & mental errors.

I pretty much dismissed Rubtsov after his horrible final major junior season.

 

[deadhead]

And he should be rated highly.

But JOB was 19th overall. And Johnson at 17 shattered JOB’s production at 20. Combined with JOB’s very subpar production as a college freshman for a top-20 pick, it paints a pessimistic picture.

Johnson is also a waterbug, these guys tend to put up inflated junior numbers because they can play in wide open ice.

 

[Flyer lurker]

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

You really love to hear that from coach.

 

[MayonnaiseOreo]

I hope he pans out and becomes a mainstay in our lineup because I really want a Flyers O'Brien jersey.

 

[deadhead]

I'd be happy if JOB makes the team in a couple years as a fast, gritty bottom six forward.
We could use more players like that.

 

[dats81]

You really love to hear that from coach.

Absolutely. Sounds like he will be put in a favourable spot given any chance to succeed.

 

[Flukeshot]

What are the draft pick compensation options on O'Brien? Is it still an option to get a 2nd round pick if he's not signed?

 

[Rebels57]

What are the draft pick compensation options on O'Brien? Is it still an option to get a 2nd round pick if he's not signed?

Yep

 

[Jtown]

Yep

how does that work? when was the last one?

 

[FLYguy3911]

Conner Bleackley

Kevin Hayes before that.

 

[FlyguyOX]

If he doesn't score close to PPG this season then let's get that 2nd round pick

 

[FLYguy3911]

The earliest they could get the 2nd round pick is in 2023 and it'd be in the back half of the round so putting arbitrary cutoffs on a likely shortened season doesn't make too much sense.

 

[deadhead]

#50+ is unlikely to be a better player than bottom six JOB, which is probably his floor.

 

[Jettany]

This pick is starting to piss me off. The more I see Miller with the rangers.

 

[CutOnDime97]

This pick is starting to piss me off. The more I see Miller with the rangers.

Galaxy brain pick by Hextall

 

[Tripod]

This pick is starting to piss me off. The more I see Miller with the rangers.

I think we were going forward with that pick anyways given Ghost was coming off a 65 point season and we had Provy and Sanheim.

So targeting a LHD likely was never an option.

If it makes you feel better, just remember that Zamula went undrafted and we signed him in 2018...so he is like our late 1st rd pick....and we can still decline signing JOB and get a 2nd rd pick for him.

FWIW, JOB does have 13 pts in 12 games this year though

 

[deadhead]

12 points in 11 games by JOB, and that's jumping from a low amateur league to college. Not a bad start.
If he keeps scoring like this, I'd expect him to go pro in April, and head to LHV for a month or so.
He's 21 this year, so staying in college is less of an option. It would have been his junior season.

 

[Jettany]

I think we were going forward with that pick anyways given Ghost was coming off a 65 point season and we had Provy and Sanheim.

So targeting a LHD likely was never an option.

If it makes you feel better, just remember that Zamula went undrafted and we signed him in 2018...so he is like our late 1st rd pick....and we can still decline signing JOB and get a 2nd rd pick for him.

FWIW, JOB does have 13 pts in 12 games this year though

True.

 

[Psuhockey]

I think we were going forward with that pick anyways given Ghost was coming off a 65 point season and we had Provy and Sanheim.

So targeting a LHD likely was never an option.

It is incredibly stupid to pick need especially in the first round. Always take the best player. Miller would be a huge trade chip or he would allow the Flyers to use one of their other defensemen as a trade chip.

 

[Tripod]

It is incredibly stupid to pick need especially in the first round. Always take the best player. Miller would be a huge trade chip or he would allow the Flyers to use one of their other defensemen as a trade chip.

Agreed. But when you do these lists, you tend to have guys in tiers. I doubt that the JOB pick came up and we had Miller in an above tier, and dropped to the next tier to take JOB.

It's just very likely that they had JOB ranked that high and even if Miller was in the same tier, the "tie" goes to need.

We just don't know who they had ranked in that tier....because none of us had JOB in that tier.

 

[Rebels57]

It is incredibly stupid to pick need especially in the first round. Always take the best player. Miller would be a huge trade chip or he would allow the Flyers to use one of their other defensemen as a trade chip.

Hextall was trying to be the smartest guy in the room again. It worked in the past but didnt with that pick.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Miller wasn't even the best Rangers defenseman picked in that first round. Pretty crummy group of forwards in the back half of that first round. Bit of a backhanded compliment but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being the best of that bunch.

JOB's career to this point is pretty similar to the team's current 2C.