Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick #19: Jay O'Brien, C, MA-USHS --> Providence U

[Curufinwe]

We're writing off JOB already eh? I got in about 5 viewings when he was with Penticton this past season and he was their best player by a fairly significant margin.

You would hope so considering he was a 20 year old 1st round pick.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I mean you can't fault the team for the migraine issues. If you want to say they didn't have enough balls, to go out on a limb and take one of the next three players (Two 1D's and a 1C), that is fair game. I imagine most GMs would have just made the chalk pick anyway.

As for JOB, I don't like criticizing teams for taking risks when the team has had success in the past taking "risky" players in the first round (Sanheim, Frost). Especially when almost no one had substantial viewings of the player. You can argue they should have taken X, Y, or Z (I don't think they are missing anything in Kupari or Miller) or that they should have traded back, but if you have a strong conviction, take the player you want. I think the scouting staff deserved the benefit of the doubt based on the previous four drafts.

As for the player, it's not as if he lacks talent. He went right from Prep School to the World Junior Showcase and stood out playing against the best teenagers in the world. He got into the doghouse for one reason or another at Providence, but when he did play, he flashed (below). I don't normally take much from prospect camps, but with a prospect with a track record like JOB, you take what you can get. He was a standout last summer and easily one of the most skilled players there. I saw him play one game for Penticton so I'm not going to take much from his play this season, but he was the second most productive skater in the the league this year. I know a lot of people wouldn't have accepted anything less than #1 but the top scorer could be a top 5 pick next year and even he has more top level experience than JOB. It goes without saying that if there is a college season this year, it will be a big year in determining his outlook.

 

[Curufinwe]

The 19th ranked prospect is a top 12 forward in the playoffs, and the 18th is the #8 dman. That's good depth.


Top 30 SKATERS 19-20

1. Frost, Morgan - 73%
2. Farabee, Joel - 52%
3. Myers, Phil - 87%
4. York, Cam - 59%
5. Ratcliffe, Isaac - 53%
6. Brink, Bobby Orr - 69%
7. Rubtsov, German - 58%
8. Allison, Wade - 39%
9. Morin, Sam - 29%
10. O'Brien, Jay - 38%
11. Zamula, Yegor - 41%
12. Hogberg, Linus - 27%
13. Laczynski, Tanner - 43%
14. Vorobyev, Mikhail - 33%
15. Kalynuk, Wyatt - 42%
16. Cates, Noah - 41%
17. Kase, David - 26%
18. Friedman, Mark - 20% (RUNOFF winner)
19. Aube-Kubel, Nicolas - 38%
20. Attard, Ronnie - 26%
21. St. Ivany, Jack - 31%
22. Bunnaman, Connor - 50%
23. Strome, Matthew - 45%
24. Millman, Mason - 47%
25. Serdyuk, Yegor - 35%
26. Ginning, Adam - 30%
27. Wylie, Wyatte - 56%
28. Sushko, Maxim - 32%
29. Twarynski, Carson - 51%
30. Lycksell, Olle - 37%

 

[Here4ThaLids]

He really does have good hands and brings the in-your-face swagger we need more of (not a full roster of that type, but more). There were at least four other players available at his spot I'd have taken instead, but all of them had 'project' or 'needs time' on them, and with a teeming prospect pool at the time (with enough high-floor/two-way players), a second first round pick is exactly where I want to take a home run swing.

Would anyone be complaining if JOB were in the middle of the traditional, continuous four-year college route? It's not like he was demoted for play -- had significant injuries and a level jump, then had to end-around a rule. Great to have a wild card in the mix.

 

[Stizzle]

Thanks. To me this pick directly represented my frustration with Hextall's slow approach. It was a massive reach and definitely was the pick to trade for more immediate improvement. Now the fact that O'Brien will take 4 yrs to "figure out" just elongates that reminder.

I hate to break it to you, but Hextall & Pryor had JOB ranked ahead of Farabee. The Flyers only took Farabee first because they knew JOB would still be available at 19, and Farabee likely wouldn't be.

At least, that's how it has been widely reported. You were likely getting JOB even if one of the picks was traded.

Oh, and no trade for immediate help was changing the fact that Dave Hakstol was still the coach. Thus insuring failure as a total inevitability.

 

[deadhead]

Given our depth the next few years, a fast tenacious fireplug 3rd line center/RW would be a fine outcome.
He could easily start on the 4th line and work his way up if he's a "relentless forechecker," we've already seen that with NAK this season.
People keep saying they don't want a "typical 4th line," how about:
Cates - JOB - Laczynski/Sushko in a few years?

I think the biggest problem is going to be to find somewhere to play this year, he was an overage draft pick in 2018, 19 years old his freshman year in college, yet with very limited experience. So you have to balance being 20 in the BCHL with the fact he effectively was more like 18 in terms of hockey experience (HS hockey, then limited PT at Providence is less than Brink, York, Laczynski, Allison, etc had going into college hockey).

He probably needs 100-150 games the next couple seasons to be NHL ready.
Frankly, I think he should just write off college and try to go to the AHL if possible.

Since he was drafted, he had 25 college games, 7 WJC-20 games and 51 BCHL games.
Brink, although he's two years younger, had 63 USHL games, 10 USDP games, and 5 WJC-18 games before he was drafted, and 28 college games (in a much bigger role) and 5 WJC-20 games.
So Brink has as much or more experience against real competition than JOB.
Both probably need another college season, then start in the AHL.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

O’Brien’s incredibly poor freshman season, strange transfer to the BCHL at age 20, & good, but not great, performance as a 20 yr old 1st rounder in Jr. A, despite his obviously terrific skill level, make me wonder if there are off-ice issues.

He was a huge HS star, first rd pick, & maybe partying got the better of him. Wouldn’t be the first kid. Or first O’Brien.

He was indeed suspended a game by Providence for an off-ice incident, of which there are different rumors.

 

[wankstifier]

The 19th ranked prospect is a top 12 forward in the playoffs, and the 18th is the #8 dman. That's good depth.


Top 30 SKATERS 19-20

1. Frost, Morgan - 73%
2. Farabee, Joel - 52%
3. Myers, Phil - 87%
4. York, Cam - 59%
5. Ratcliffe, Isaac - 53%
6. Brink, Bobby Orr - 69%
7. Rubtsov, German - 58%
8. Allison, Wade - 39%
9. Morin, Sam - 29%
10. O'Brien, Jay - 38%
11. Zamula, Yegor - 41%
12. Hogberg, Linus - 27%
13. Laczynski, Tanner - 43%
14. Vorobyev, Mikhail - 33%
15. Kalynuk, Wyatt - 42%
16. Cates, Noah - 41%
17. Kase, David - 26%
18. Friedman, Mark - 20% (RUNOFF winner)
19. Aube-Kubel, Nicolas - 38%
20. Attard, Ronnie - 26%
21. St. Ivany, Jack - 31%
22. Bunnaman, Connor - 50%
23. Strome, Matthew - 45%
24. Millman, Mason - 47%
25. Serdyuk, Yegor - 35%
26. Ginning, Adam - 30%
27. Wylie, Wyatte - 56%
28. Sushko, Maxim - 32%
29. Twarynski, Carson - 51%
30. Lycksell, Olle - 37%

That tells me the rankings were pretty far off.

 

[Curufinwe]

Hextall & Pryor had JOB ranked ahead of Farabee. The Flyers only took Farabee first because they knew JOB would still be available at 19, and Farabee likely wouldn't be.

At least, that's how it has been widely reported.

Can you link to one of those reports?

 

[deadhead]

The 19th ranked prospect is a top 12 forward in the playoffs, and the 18th is the #8 dman. That's good depth.


Top 30 SKATERS 19-20

1. Frost, Morgan - 73%
2. Farabee, Joel - 52%
3. Myers, Phil - 87%
4. York, Cam - 59%
5. Ratcliffe, Isaac - 53%
6. Brink, Bobby Orr - 69%
7. Rubtsov, German - 58%
8. Allison, Wade - 39%
9. Morin, Sam - 29%
10. O'Brien, Jay - 38%
11. Zamula, Yegor - 41%
12. Hogberg, Linus - 27%
13. Laczynski, Tanner - 43%
14. Vorobyev, Mikhail - 33%
15. Kalynuk, Wyatt - 42%
16. Cates, Noah - 41%
17. Kase, David - 26%
18. Friedman, Mark - 20% (RUNOFF winner)
19. Aube-Kubel, Nicolas - 38%
20. Attard, Ronnie - 26%
21. St. Ivany, Jack - 31%
22. Bunnaman, Connor - 50%
23. Strome, Matthew - 45%
24. Millman, Mason - 47%
25. Serdyuk, Yegor - 35%
26. Ginning, Adam - 30%
27. Wylie, Wyatte - 56%
28. Sushko, Maxim - 32%
29. Twarynski, Carson - 51%
30. Lycksell, Olle - 37%

The top three have pretty much graduated, #4, #11 are considered top 50 prospects, and maybe #6.
We've lost the ones in blue, but the ones in red have a shot at the roster next season.

 

[freakydallas13]

Even if Patrick never plays again it would be very hard to pin that on th GM or scouting staff. It's a pretty freak situation.

I know, I said as much earlier in the thread.

 

[freakydallas13]

There's no precedent of a player missing 2 years due to migraines. It's a safe bet he will be back. Don't be surprised if he is in training camp and ready to go for the 20-21 season.

I'll start being excited for Patrick again once he is in the lineup.

 

[Rebels57]

I'll start being excited for Patrick again once he is in the lineup.

That's fair

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I’ll believe Patrick is coming back when I see it. He seems like a strange bird.

 

[bennysflyers16]

You would hope so considering he was a 20 year old 1st round pick.

In Jr A hockey, I have friends who dominated Jr A as 19 year olds.

Spoiler alert, they aren't in the NHL

 

[Stizzle]

Can you link to one of those reports?

I'm not going to scour the internet for the origins of that nugget, but I remember reading it at the time. Then I recall it being rehashed (by Meltzer?) when Fletcher took over.

I recall it being noted in an article that the new regime coveted Farabee over JOB, unlike the former regime.

 

[David St Hubbins]

We're writing off JOB already eh? I got in about 5 viewings when he was with Penticton this past season and he was their best player by a fairly significant margin. Drove breakouts, engineered entries, forechecked relentlessly, was hard on the puck, & drove every line he was on. Played with a lot of pace too.


Nothing I saw from this past season indicated a player who will in no way become an NHLer (AKA: becoming a bust). Bottom 6 tenacious forward seems like a pretty realistic outcome at this point. He is intriguing. STRANGE development path for sure, but there is something there with this player.

I’m not writing him off but a #1 pick lighting up the BCHL at age 20 ain’t terribly impressive. Again, maybe I’m wrong and I hope he gets it together, but skepticism is not unwarranted. And that skepticism isn’t based on bad luck, which concerns me.

 

[Rebels57]

I’m not writing him off but a #1 pick lighting up the BCHL at age 20 ain’t terribly impressive. Again, maybe I’m wrong and I hope he gets it together, but skepticism is not unwarranted. And that skepticism isn’t based on bad luck, which concerns me.

Yeah, we do need to see it against the next level.

 

[captainpaxil]

I know it's been seen as the kiss of death before but I'd rather see job in the echl this year with access to the flyers trainers and coaches than not playing.

I loved the pick but I don't think he's developed properly. I still feel he could be a Logan couture type

 

[Curufinwe]

ECHL is probably not happening till there's an effective vaccine. It's entirely gate driven.

 

[Striiker]

Reading the JOB funeral from the fanbase is really interesting. He got written off as a bust very quickly.

Compare JOB to the way Samuel Morin was seen by the fanbase for so, so long. Hell, Morin finished ahead of JOB in our prospect voting just a year ago (not to mention Zamula). That's really telling.

Morin, was a 24 year old. Versus JOB, who was still a teenager. Morin, with a questionable, old-school skill set. Versus JOB's skill and tenacity.

I don't know, but if I had to guess, it likely comes down to marketing. Morin was drafted when we had very few legit prospects and got the Flyers media hype machine behind him. Even when Phil Myers broke on the scene, the fans still coveted Morin higher for way longer than was logical.

It's understandably
easy for JOB to get lost in the shuffle amidst our heap of prospects. Providence was never on TV and he rode the bench in the WJC.

@FLYguy3911 and I watched a bunch of his Providence games and had mostly positive things to say about him. I only saw him once in Penticton. I believe @FLYguy3911 is in the same boat with viewings on him, but we both still ranked him easily within the top 10 of our current prospect pool.

His skill set is very intriguing. He has a big motor. I think as long as his head and heart are still in it, he should be fine. He could be discouraged and disinterested by the whole transfer process but if not, I still think we might have a player here.

What percentage of the people doubting him or questioning the pick do you think have watched a single full game of his since he was drafted?

*To be clear, I haven't watched a single game of his either, which is why I offer no opinion either way.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

JOB’s 1.43 points per game as a 20 y/o in the BCHL isn’t that impressive.

Kent Johnson was 1.94.
Philippe Lapointe 1.53.

Johnson was 17 & is a 2021 draft eligible.

Lapointe is 3 months younger than JOB, hasn’t yet been drafted, & is ranked 152 for 2020 by McKeen’s.

Newhook was barely under 2 pts/g at 17 (also 42 pts in 34 games as a college freshman after his draft year).

So JOB’s post-HS statistical profile is very concerning for a 19th overall pick. He’s going to need a big season at BU to restore my faith.

 

[Stizzle]

What percentage of the people doubting him or questioning the pick do you think have watched a single full game of his since he was drafted?

*To be clear, I haven't watched a single game of his either, which is why I offer no opinion either way.

Well, to be fair, I'm doubting him also. Just much less than most. But yeah, I get your point. Pretty much no one actually watches him play.

I don't blame anyone for not watching him. His games can be tough to find. The BCHL is pretty obscure, and Providence is a huge, boring chore to watch.

I just found it weird the sentiment surrounding him by the fanbase was so negative. Especially considering the reviews by the people watching his games were fairly positive.

Morin didn't get that treatment. Neither did Rubtsov when he started his statistical decline at Acadie-Bathurst.

 

[Striiker]

Well, to be fair, I'm doubting him also. Just much less than most. But yeah, I get your point. Pretty much no one actually watches him play.

I don't blame anyone for not watching him. His games can be tough to find. The BCHL is pretty obscure, and Providence is a huge, boring chore to watch.

I just found it weird the sentiment surrounding him by the fanbase was so negative. Especially considering the reviews by the people watching his games were fairly positive.

Morin didn't get that treatment. Neither did Rubtsov when he started his statistical decline at Acadie-Bathurst.

Yup, I completely get what you’re saying.

The media plays a role for sure. There’s legit periods of time when I forget JOB even exists because I’ll go months without hearing or seeing his name. I think you might be one of like 2 or 3 people who post about him on here too. The guys been forgotten by most people already.

At this point I just have my expectations low and will hope for the best. I’ll never argue with taking a risk on high skill players and sometimes that just doesn’t work out. We’ll see, I guess.

 

[deadhead]

JOB’s 1.43 points per game as a 20 y/o in the BCHL isn’t that impressive.

Kent Johnson was 1.94.
Philippe Lapointe 1.53.

Johnson was 17 & is a 2021 draft eligible.

Lapointe is 3 months younger than JOB, hasn’t yet been drafted, & is ranked 152 for 2020 by McKeen’s.

Newhook was barely under 2 pts/g at 17 (also 42 pts in 34 games as a college freshman after his draft year).

So JOB’s post-HS statistical profile is very concerning for a 19th overall pick. He’s going to need a big season at BU to restore my faith.

Johnson is projected to be a top 10 pick.