Roster thread: Get To Work (2022-2023 Season)

[Jim Bob]

I get it but that can't be the measuring stick. We need a 53+% guy

There are not a lot of those in the league right now.

And if you are looking at all situations, that still only 43 guys.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

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[Chainshot]

I get it but that can't be the measuring stick. We need a 53+% guy

We need everyone else to be 3-5% better and not give Jost any more faceoffs at all. One guy isn't going to solve their issues and as we saw, having a 55% guy who is also bad at the actual game didn't help either, regardless of the quality of his mullet.

 

[Jim Bob]

Looking at Compher, his splits are interesting.

He's good in the OZ and not so great in the NZ or DZ.

 

[Bendium]

Looking at that list -- it's enlightening how many of the high-# SH faceoff takers are well below 50%.

Faceoff win percentage is highly affected by the other players fighting for possession. When you are out manned 4 to 3 players outside the centers, the faceoff average will tilt toward the PP team. Except the Sabres. They seem to have no good faceoff guys AND suck at coordinated faceoff play to get possession. They should give you the option of just starting with the puck in your end.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

View attachment 687447

There are not a lot of those in the league right now.

And if you are looking at all situations, that still only 43 guys.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Once you account for guys who aren't available, won't be signing with Buffalo, or are the Cody Eakins of the world that list then gets even smaller.

 

[Chainshot]

Given what @BFLO was talking about and watching a lot of lacrosse, I wonder what wingers & D are good at coming up with puck possession off of a faceoff?

Kind of like what lax FO wings are good at getting GBs...

The lad has been talking about that a lot too - stats on 50-50 battles, especially off faceoff events and then by zone and situation are not things we have right now.

FO wins are so often the matter of winger-wins and those are the detail areas the Sabres need to work on. And in general, getting more out of the people they have taking them requires that they put in the work with someone who can teach it. I don't know if they have that on staff.

 

[Bendium]

My son pointed it out a couple of weeks ago as Casey was heating up - that if you lay the development times and such side by side, that Mittelstadt is now about where Tage would have been last year in terms of finally putting it together. It isn't as dominant, but there are certainly some broad parallels with from coming out probably a year too soon, the time spent in the NHL while under Botts reign, taking steps to get things in order in the AHL, losing time to injury...

Just saying there are similarities there and also to your response above being similar to your stance on the Thompson and Samuelsson extensions.

Honestly, this is similar in some respects across MOST players. Even p[layers that breakout quicker, still are not physically build, consistent, strong NHL players. About 5 years of play is a pretty solid rule to really hit stride. People need to remember that with Power, Quinn, JJP, Krebs, Cozens. Alll those guys are years away from being mature hockey players.

 

[Chainshot]

View attachment 687456

Looking at Compher, his splits are interesting.

He's good in the OZ and not so great in the NZ or DZ.

He's actually worse on the PP than his raw OZW% by about a percent. Not that all draws are in the OZ on the PP but it's an interesting facet. He's also 25th in total PP faceoffs taken (moves up to 21st if you throw out the guys who don't win more than 20 on the PK from the list).

 

[Chainshot]

Honestly, this is similar in some respects across MOST players. Even p[layers that breakout quicker, still are not physically build, consistent, strong NHL players. About 5 years of play is a pretty solid rule to really hit stride. People need to remember that with Power, Quinn, JJP, Krebs, Cozens. Alll those guys are years away from being mature hockey players.

There was an old adage about four years from being drafted to see a guy ready, but the push toward more developed players coming into the league and contributing sooner has erased some of that.

As for Cozens, next year is pro year 4 and we should see an improvement in consistency to go along with him being matured into his body.

 

[Bendium]

$5-5.5M per would be the top end for a Mitts extension for me at this point. Basically, a little more than VO.

No way in HELL we pay him more than Tuch. I want to see the first half of next year before an extention. He is an RFA at the end of next year, so there is no urgency. I certainly would not be signing up for 8 years. He has had a good couple months here. I am not there on giving him a long contract extension yet. When he gets one it has to be for 3rd line money, not 2nd line money. Where is he going to play? If you genuinely have to many top 6 forwards? Then you have some trade currency.

 

[Jim Bob]

The lad has been talking about that a lot too - stats on 50-50 battles, especially off faceoff events and then by zone and situation are not things we have right now.

FO wins are so often the matter of winger-wins and those are the detail areas the Sabres need to work on. And in general, getting more out of the people they have taking them requires that they put in the work with someone who can teach it. I don't know if they have that on staff.

There are definitely teams that track that sort of stuff internally. It would be interesting if there were public data on that sort of stuff.

No way in HELL we pay him more than Tuch. I want to see the first half of next year before an extention. He is an RFA at the end of next year, so there is no urgency. I certainly would not be signing up for 8 years. He has had a good couple months here. I am not there on giving him a long contract extension yet. When he gets one it has to be for 3rd line money, not 2nd line money. Where is he going to play? If you genuinely have to many top 6 forwards? Then you have some trade currency.

If you are signing him for 7-8 years you absolutely are paying him more than Tuch because Vegas got Tuch for a mint because they signed him to a 7 year deal when he was coming off of a 37 point rookie season.

 

[TehDoak]

If they can lock Mitts up a to a steal of a contract right now, I'm all for it.

Offer him the Kotkaniemi deal. 8 x $4.82 but with no trade protections.

We shouldn't be giving ANY forwards 8 year deals. Not with the sheer volume of forward prospects in the pipeline.

We have Thompson and Cozens locked up long term.

Skinner has 4 years left without really any good out clause/buyout. We are stuck with it.

Tuch has 3 years left.

Flexibility is the name of the game at forward. Dollars aren't the enemy here, term is.

If the front office likes him and wants to keep him, a 2 year extension lines him up to when Tuch's deal drops off. You might be able to make a Skinner buyout then or retain and kill the contract. You will then have a better idea of what the forward prospects are doing and make a more informed decision.

Giving him a 7 or 8 year deal won't save you much money wise, but will cost you a lot in future flexibility.

My son pointed it out a couple of weeks ago as Casey was heating up - that if you lay the development times and such side by side, that Mittelstadt is now about where Tage would have been last year in terms of finally putting it together. It isn't as dominant, but there are certainly some broad parallels with from coming out probably a year too soon, the time spent in the NHL while under Botts reign, taking steps to get things in order in the AHL, losing time to injury...

Just saying there are similarities there and also to your response above being similar to your stance on the Thompson and Samuelsson extensions.

Mittelstadt's production, if not given top line/PP minutes, will be in the 40-50 point range

He's not great at faceoffs, he doesn't play the PK. He's typically on the 2nd PP unit.

He has improved his board work a lot this year. He backchecks well. He has good vision.

He shouldn't be a considered a core piece. he is the kind of secondary scorer that is readily available at the trade deadline for around a 2nd round pick.

 

[Bendium]

There was an old adage about four years from being drafted to see a guy ready, but the push toward more developed players coming into the league and contributing sooner has erased some of that.

As for Cozens, next year is pro year 4 and we should see an improvement in consistency to go along with him being matured into his body.

I agree they are more developed from a hockey skills and training standpoint. However, none of that can overcome biology. It doesn.t make their bodies and brains finish growing into full men's bodies. Most people would be surprised to learn that puberty does not actually end until the 26-29 year old range. There is alot of finishing work on the body and brain in the early to mid 20's. Its a fascinating subject, especially as it applies to athletes.

 

[BFLO]

Imagine this really aggressive offseason.

(estimating high on all of these UFA $aav)
Haula 2 x $3.25
Hathaway 2 x $2.0
Girgs 2 x $2
Limited all 3 players to 2 year deals to free up cap for Quinn and JJP extensions kicking in 2025.

Graves 3 x $5

Andersen 2 x $3

VO @50% for a 3rd

2023 1st +2023 phi 2nd + 3rd from VO + Joker@50% for Weegar before the draft and his NTC kicks in.


Skinner Mitts Tuch
Greenway Tage Cozens
JJp Krebs Quinn
Girgs Haula Hathaway
Kulich Savoie Rousek

Samuelsson Dahlin
Power Weegar
Graves Boosh
Stillman/Bryson/Johson

Levi
Andersen (fred)

This salary structure leaves $4m aav free for 2023-2024 and leaves room to extend Dahlin to 8 x$10, Power 3 x $6, Mitts 8x $4.82 kicking in 2024-2025

Krebs is a bit a question mark.

 

[Bendium]

There are definitely teams that track that sort of stuff internally. It would be interesting if there were public data on that sort of stuff.


If you are signing him for 7-8 years you absolutely are paying him more than Tuch because Vegas got Tuch for a mint because they signed him to a 7 year deal when he was coming off of a 37 point rookie season.

Well, guess its a mute point since there is no way I am signing him to a 7-8 year contract.

He is currently paid appropriately for a 3rd line winger. I am not paying him a consistent proven second line winger contract.

 

[Jim Bob]

Well, guess its a mute point since there is no way I am signing him to a 7-8 year contract.

That was the jumping off point of the conversation based on what Adams had to say.

I can see them seeing him as a core piece and wanting to lock him up like TnT, Cozens, and Sammy.

 

[Irie]

So what's general consensus here?

Out: Oloffson, Jokiharju, Okposo, UPL, Comrie, Anderson, Hinostroza

In: Top 4 D, Solid 50 game reliable goalie, Replace other offense with one of Savoie/Kulich,

Out: Incompetent assistant coaches

In: Competent assistant coaches

And yes, I know



I'll show myself out now.

 

[Chainshot]

Imagine this really aggressive offseason.

(estimating high on all of these UFA $aav)
Haula 2 x $3.25
Hathaway 2 x $2.0
Girgs 2 x $2
Limited all 3 players to 2 year deals to free up cap for Quinn and JJP extensions kicking in 2025.

Graves 3 x $5

Andersen 2 x $3

VO @50% for a 3rd

2023 1st +2023 phi 2nd + 3rd from VO + Joker@50% for Weegar before the draft and his NTC kicks in.


Skinner Mitts Tuch
Greenway Tage Cozens
JJp Krebs Quinn
Girgs Haula Hathaway
Kulich Savoie Rousek

Samuelsson Dahlin
Power Weegar
Graves Boosh
Stillman/Bryson/Johson

Levi
Andersen (fred)

This salary structure leaves $4m aav free for 2023-2024 and leaves room to extend Dahlin to 8 x$10, Power 3 x $6, Mitts 8x $4.82 kicking in 2024-2025

Krebs is a bit a question mark.

That would be workable.

 

[brian_griffin]

His arena is falling apart. He laid off people making peanuts during a pandemic to save himself pennies. He’s decimates the front office and scouting department. He has the lowest payroll in the league.

f*** man, the burden of proof is on his cheap ass.

You want people to believe they’ll spend money? f***ing spend money. Sitting around here calling people out for observing actual things that have happened with beliefs you can’t show a damn thing for. Come on. He’s cheap as f***.

Not going to re-litigate in this thread, not it's purpose, but since no one noted it a few pages ago, another counterpoint is in the middle of a pandemic and all his alleged miserly mistreatment of humans, he signed Taylor Hall to an $8M contract (which was obviously pro-rated due to the shortened season, but my point stands). Lastly, PSE / Sabres do not own the arena, but I'll take only a half-valued counterpoint for that reminder.

What could we get for our 1st? I have no ideas on value right now

Add to it to acquire Juuse Saros...

For the Pegula loses money on this team truthers…

the value of the team has more than tripled since he bought it. And will rise again when Ottawa sells.

Hes been raking in literal hundreds of millions in value at the cost of a small liquid loss.

Don’t let billionaires trick you into believing they lose money. They don’t.

Valuation (net worth & balance sheet) is completely different from cash flow (P&L & income statement), in both business, sports, and personal life.
I could cite real, current examples of each, but won't because it's not that thread.
I'll just add one extreme example that companies like Intel sitting on literally billions of dollars of cash are immune to changes in both valuation and the cost of money (both ROIC for growth, and short-term borrowing to cover payroll in the event accounts receivable are protracted due to liquidity, supply chain, FX rates, etc).
99% of the businesses large and small in the US, Canada, etc., aren't in the position of Intel, no matter how large or small they are.

View attachment 687306

I wonder who they can add with $3B in available cap space for tonight & tomorrow?

My fax machine is on. I'm available to be in Columbus. I'll car-pool from the airport with @Der Jaeger

The team finally has the cap space to meet my contract demands…..

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Imagine this really aggressive offseason.

(estimating high on all of these UFA $aav)
Haula 2 x $3.25
Hathaway 2 x $2.0
Girgs 2 x $2
Limited all 3 players to 2 year deals to free up cap for Quinn and JJP extensions kicking in 2025.

Graves 3 x $5

Andersen 2 x $3

VO @50% for a 3rd

2023 1st +2023 phi 2nd + 3rd from VO + Joker@50% for Weegar before the draft and his NTC kicks in.


Skinner Mitts Tuch
Greenway Tage Cozens
JJp Krebs Quinn
Girgs Haula Hathaway
Kulich Savoie Rousek

Samuelsson Dahlin
Power Weegar
Graves Boosh
Stillman/Bryson/Johson

Levi
Andersen (fred)

This salary structure leaves $4m aav free for 2023-2024 and leaves room to extend Dahlin to 8 x$10, Power 3 x $6, Mitts 8x $4.82 kicking in 2024-2025

Krebs is a bit a question mark.

I love this. More or less my dream offseason.

One nitpick comment though - do we really see JJP/Quinn as core pieces yet? To the point where we're already planning for huge extensions?

I think Quinn likely is - but he's not proven it yet. Peterka... could be one of the guys passed on the depth chart by Kulich or Savoie if they impress at the NHL level IMO.

Imagine Mitts keeps up his recent high quality play between Skinner & Tuch for the majority of a season... I don't know how you don't give him a big extension after that - which closes off another top 6 spot long term.

 

[Chainshot]

We shouldn't be giving ANY forwards 8 year deals. Not with the sheer volume of forward prospects in the pipeline.

We have Thompson and Cozens locked up long term.

Skinner has 4 years left without really any good out clause/buyout. We are stuck with it.

Tuch has 3 years left.

Flexibility is the name of the game at forward. Dollars aren't the enemy here, term is.

If the front office likes him and wants to keep him, a 2 year extension lines him up to when Tuch's deal drops off. You might be able to make a Skinner buyout then or retain and kill the contract. You will then have a better idea of what the forward prospects are doing and make a more informed decision.

Giving him a 7 or 8 year deal won't save you much money wise, but will cost you a lot in future flexibility.




Mittelstadt's production, if not given top line/PP minutes, will be in the 40-50 point range

He's not great at faceoffs, he doesn't play the PK. He's typically on the 2nd PP unit.

He has improved his board work a lot this year. He backchecks well. He has good vision.

He shouldn't be a considered a core piece. he is the kind of secondary scorer that is readily available at the trade deadline for around a 2nd round pick.

Mitts is akin to Killorn with the Lightning - part of the near-core guys who happens to be productive in a depth role up and down the lineup who also happened to survive time after time when cap cuts would call. He provides versatility, depth scoring, and is a known big part of their room. Given how he's increased his work rate and contests pucks, that all has value.

 

[brian_griffin]

Mitts is akin to Killorn with the Lightning - part of the near-core guys who happens to be productive in a depth role up and down the lineup who also happened to survive time after time when cap cuts would call. He provides versatility, depth scoring, and is a known big part of their room. Given how he's increased his work rate and contests pucks, that all has value.

And in that analogy, who are we penciling in as our emerging Brayden Point? Is that Quinn? Is it Cozens (because a Center)?

 

[Chainshot]

And in that analogy, who are we penciling in as our emerging Brayden Point? Is that Quinn? Is it Cozens (because a Center)?

Maybe this guy...?

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

So what's general consensus here?

Out: Oloffson, Jokiharju, Okposo, UPL, Comrie, Anderson, Hinostroza

In: Top 4 D, Solid 50 game reliable goalie, Replace other offense with one of Savoie/Kulich,

More minutes for Quinn, Peterka, Krebbs.
Maybes to keep: Okposo, Joki, one of UPL/Comrie?

I’m starting to come around to OK coming back. Not coming around as in ya in favor but in the resigned he’ll be back again because they’ll keep some veterans around, probably him and girgs.

I could also see joker back. He's under contract and he's cheap. It wouldnt shock me in the least if he came back and they heavily pursued a #4. They don't have anyone to push him out of the lineup, they need another bottom pair dman, and his contract has a year left. You could keep him around and lock him in the press box if his poor play continues and there wouldn't be any long term negatives. If every other option worked out you could waive him without too much hassle as well.

 

[Chainshot]

There are definitely teams that track that sort of stuff internally. It would be interesting if there were public data on that sort of stuff.


If you are signing him for 7-8 years you absolutely are paying him more than Tuch because Vegas got Tuch for a mint because they signed him to a 7 year deal when he was coming off of a 37 point rookie season.

A similar cap hit by percentage of cap would be $4,984,950.