Roster thread: Get To Work (2022-2023 Season)
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We need everyone else to be 3-5% better and not give Jost any more faceoffs at all. One guy isn't going to solve their issues and as we saw, having a 55% guy who is also bad at the actual game didn't help either, regardless of the quality of his mullet.
Jim Bob
RIP RJ
Looking at Compher, his splits are interesting.
He's good in the OZ and not so great in the NZ or DZ.
Bendium
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- Oct 18, 2019
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Faceoff win percentage is highly affected by the other players fighting for possession. When you are out manned 4 to 3 players outside the centers, the faceoff average will tilt toward the PP team. Except the Sabres. They seem to have no good faceoff guys AND suck at coordinated faceoff play to get possession. They should give you the option of just starting with the puck in your end.
WhereAreTheCookies
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Once you account for guys who aren't available, won't be signing with Buffalo, or are the Cody Eakins of the world that list then gets even smaller.View attachment 687447
There are not a lot of those in the league right now.
And if you are looking at all situations, that still only 43 guys.
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The lad has been talking about that a lot too - stats on 50-50 battles, especially off faceoff events and then by zone and situation are not things we have right now.
FO wins are so often the matter of winger-wins and those are the detail areas the Sabres need to work on. And in general, getting more out of the people they have taking them requires that they put in the work with someone who can teach it. I don't know if they have that on staff.
Bendium
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Honestly, this is similar in some respects across MOST players. Even p[layers that breakout quicker, still are not physically build, consistent, strong NHL players. About 5 years of play is a pretty solid rule to really hit stride. People need to remember that with Power, Quinn, JJP, Krebs, Cozens. Alll those guys are years away from being mature hockey players.
He's actually worse on the PP than his raw OZW% by about a percent. Not that all draws are in the OZ on the PP but it's an interesting facet. He's also 25th in total PP faceoffs taken (moves up to 21st if you throw out the guys who don't win more than 20 on the PK from the list).
There was an old adage about four years from being drafted to see a guy ready, but the push toward more developed players coming into the league and contributing sooner has erased some of that.
As for Cozens, next year is pro year 4 and we should see an improvement in consistency to go along with him being matured into his body.
Bendium
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No way in HELL we pay him more than Tuch. I want to see the first half of next year before an extention. He is an RFA at the end of next year, so there is no urgency. I certainly would not be signing up for 8 years. He has had a good couple months here. I am not there on giving him a long contract extension yet. When he gets one it has to be for 3rd line money, not 2nd line money. Where is he going to play? If you genuinely have to many top 6 forwards? Then you have some trade currency.
Jim Bob
RIP RJ
There are definitely teams that track that sort of stuff internally. It would be interesting if there were public data on that sort of stuff.
If you are signing him for 7-8 years you absolutely are paying him more than Tuch because Vegas got Tuch for a mint because they signed him to a 7 year deal when he was coming off of a 37 point rookie season.
We shouldn't be giving ANY forwards 8 year deals. Not with the sheer volume of forward prospects in the pipeline.
We have Thompson and Cozens locked up long term.
Skinner has 4 years left without really any good out clause/buyout. We are stuck with it.
Tuch has 3 years left.
Flexibility is the name of the game at forward. Dollars aren't the enemy here, term is.
If the front office likes him and wants to keep him, a 2 year extension lines him up to when Tuch's deal drops off. You might be able to make a Skinner buyout then or retain and kill the contract. You will then have a better idea of what the forward prospects are doing and make a more informed decision.
Giving him a 7 or 8 year deal won't save you much money wise, but will cost you a lot in future flexibility.
Mittelstadt's production, if not given top line/PP minutes, will be in the 40-50 point range
He's not great at faceoffs, he doesn't play the PK. He's typically on the 2nd PP unit.
He has improved his board work a lot this year. He backchecks well. He has good vision.
He shouldn't be a considered a core piece. he is the kind of secondary scorer that is readily available at the trade deadline for around a 2nd round pick.
Bendium
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I agree they are more developed from a hockey skills and training standpoint. However, none of that can overcome biology. It doesn.t make their bodies and brains finish growing into full men's bodies. Most people would be surprised to learn that puberty does not actually end until the 26-29 year old range. There is alot of finishing work on the body and brain in the early to mid 20's. Its a fascinating subject, especially as it applies to athletes.
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Imagine this really aggressive offseason.
(estimating high on all of these UFA $aav)
Haula 2 x $3.25
Hathaway 2 x $2.0
Girgs 2 x $2
Limited all 3 players to 2 year deals to free up cap for Quinn and JJP extensions kicking in 2025.
Graves 3 x $5
Andersen 2 x $3
VO @50% for a 3rd
2023 1st +2023 phi 2nd + 3rd from VO + Joker@50% for Weegar before the draft and his NTC kicks in.
Skinner Mitts Tuch
Greenway Tage Cozens
JJp Krebs Quinn
Girgs Haula Hathaway
Kulich Savoie Rousek
Samuelsson Dahlin
Power Weegar
Graves Boosh
Stillman/Bryson/Johson
Levi
Andersen (fred)
This salary structure leaves $4m aav free for 2023-2024 and leaves room to extend Dahlin to 8 x$10, Power 3 x $6, Mitts 8x $4.82 kicking in 2024-2025
Krebs is a bit a question mark.
(estimating high on all of these UFA $aav)
Haula 2 x $3.25
Hathaway 2 x $2.0
Girgs 2 x $2
Limited all 3 players to 2 year deals to free up cap for Quinn and JJP extensions kicking in 2025.
Graves 3 x $5
Andersen 2 x $3
VO @50% for a 3rd
2023 1st +2023 phi 2nd + 3rd from VO + Joker@50% for Weegar before the draft and his NTC kicks in.
Skinner Mitts Tuch
Greenway Tage Cozens
JJp Krebs Quinn
Girgs Haula Hathaway
Kulich Savoie Rousek
Samuelsson Dahlin
Power Weegar
Graves Boosh
Stillman/Bryson/Johson
Levi
Andersen (fred)
This salary structure leaves $4m aav free for 2023-2024 and leaves room to extend Dahlin to 8 x$10, Power 3 x $6, Mitts 8x $4.82 kicking in 2024-2025
Krebs is a bit a question mark.
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Bendium
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Well, guess its a mute point since there is no way I am signing him to a 7-8 year contract.
He is currently paid appropriately for a 3rd line winger. I am not paying him a consistent proven second line winger contract.
Jim Bob
RIP RJ
That was the jumping off point of the conversation based on what Adams had to say.
I can see them seeing him as a core piece and wanting to lock him up like TnT, Cozens, and Sammy.
Out: Incompetent assistant coaches
In: Competent assistant coaches
And yes, I know
I'll show myself out now.
brian_griffin
"Eric Cartman?"
Not going to re-litigate in this thread, not it's purpose, but since no one noted it a few pages ago, another counterpoint is in the middle of a pandemic and all his alleged miserly mistreatment of humans, he signed Taylor Hall to an $8M contract (which was obviously pro-rated due to the shortened season, but my point stands). Lastly, PSE / Sabres do not own the arena, but I'll take only a half-valued counterpoint for that reminder.
Add to it to acquire Juuse Saros...
Valuation (net worth & balance sheet) is completely different from cash flow (P&L & income statement), in both business, sports, and personal life.
I could cite real, current examples of each, but won't because it's not that thread.
I'll just add one extreme example that companies like Intel sitting on literally billions of dollars of cash are immune to changes in both valuation and the cost of money (both ROIC for growth, and short-term borrowing to cover payroll in the event accounts receivable are protracted due to liquidity, supply chain, FX rates, etc).
99% of the businesses large and small in the US, Canada, etc., aren't in the position of Intel, no matter how large or small they are.
My fax machine is on. I'm available to be in Columbus. I'll car-pool from the airport with @Der Jaeger
I love this. More or less my dream offseason.
One nitpick comment though - do we really see JJP/Quinn as core pieces yet? To the point where we're already planning for huge extensions?
I think Quinn likely is - but he's not proven it yet. Peterka... could be one of the guys passed on the depth chart by Kulich or Savoie if they impress at the NHL level IMO.
Imagine Mitts keeps up his recent high quality play between Skinner & Tuch for the majority of a season... I don't know how you don't give him a big extension after that - which closes off another top 6 spot long term.
Mitts is akin to Killorn with the Lightning - part of the near-core guys who happens to be productive in a depth role up and down the lineup who also happened to survive time after time when cap cuts would call. He provides versatility, depth scoring, and is a known big part of their room. Given how he's increased his work rate and contests pucks, that all has value.
brian_griffin
"Eric Cartman?"
And in that analogy, who are we penciling in as our emerging Brayden Point? Is that Quinn? Is it Cozens (because a Center)?
Push Dr Tracksuit
Gerstmann 3:16
- Jun 9, 2012
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I’m starting to come around to OK coming back. Not coming around as in ya in favor but in the resigned he’ll be back again because they’ll keep some veterans around, probably him and girgs.
I could also see joker back. He's under contract and he's cheap. It wouldnt shock me in the least if he came back and they heavily pursued a #4. They don't have anyone to push him out of the lineup, they need another bottom pair dman, and his contract has a year left. You could keep him around and lock him in the press box if his poor play continues and there wouldn't be any long term negatives. If every other option worked out you could waive him without too much hassle as well.
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