Aladyyn
they praying for the death of a rockstar
Gonna use the Hurricanes as a point of comparison, as Boston is having an absolutely historic season which really isn't a realistic goal for us, while the Hurricanes are playing at strong President's Trophy winner pace which is like the upper mark of what we can realistically hope to achieve. So let's see how their players by icetime stack up to ours. Bolded the player in the pairing who rates higher by evolving-hockey's GAR.Its not pessimistic. Its realistic. Clearly my standard is also higher than yours for what I am looking for from a player.
I said those player were possibles. They have not arrived there. I think it is disingenuous to declare them on thier way to be strong top 9 players when they haven't shown it yet. Mitts is pretty flawed but my make it to be a servicable 3rd line winger, but Greenway is likely to be a better fit for that. Krebs cieling right now looks like it is a 3rd line center, but he is undersized and has a poor faceoff percentage, so again, my be just adequate for the role. JJP is likely headed for middle six winger. Slightly undersized but should be adequate for the role.
Because they are likely adequate at best for those roles, there is opportunity to replace them with better players for the roles they would have. If you have one of them on a strong line its servicable, but make a third line of say, Mitts - Krebs - JJP, and you likely have a servicable 3rd line, not strong one, that likely is losing its matchup to a good playoff team.
Raise the bar.
Forwards:
1. Alex Tuch - Sebastian Aho
2. Tage Thompson - Martin Nečas
3. Jeff Skinner - Andrei Svechnikov
4. Dylan Cozens - Teuvo Teravainen
5. Casey Mittelstadt - Jordan Staal
6. Kyle Okposo - Seth Jarvis
7. Victor Olofsson - Jordan Martinook
8. Tyson Jost - Jesper Fast
9. JJ Peterka - Jesperi Kotkaniemi
10. Peyton Krebs - Paul Stastny
11. Jack Quinn - Stefan Noesen
12. Zemgus Girgensons - Derek Stepan
The big issue I can see here is that we have Okposo/Olofsson as borderline top6 players by ice-time which are slots they are vastly underperforming. The good thing is that Quinn and Jost are actually outpacing these slots on the Hurricanes roster so that's going to be a natural avenue for improvement.
Defensemen:
1. Rasmus Dahlin - Brent Burns
2. Owen Power - Brett Pesce
3. Mattias Samuelsson - Jaccob Slavin
4. Henri Jokiharju - Brady Skjei
5. Jacob Bryson - Jalen Chatfield
6. Ilya Lyubushkin - Calvin de Haan
By GAR, our top 3 is straight up better here, and our top 4 is pretty much even. Then there's obviously a massive gulf in terms of the 3rd pairing, which pretty much everyone has agreed to be an issue for most of the season.
Obviously the Canes have a really strong system that they play towards but I really don't think their middle-6 pieces are something that's significantly above what we're going to have on the roster in 2 years even without external additions.
(also fwiw Krebs is at 49% on faceoffs in 2023)