Roster thread: Get To Work (2022-2023 Season)

[debaser66]

Chychrun gives me Bogosian injury vibes. Just a Buddy Nix “gut.”

Yeah, I understand the need, but why gamble premium assets that after 7 seasons in the NHL he will suddenly be able to play more than 50-60 GP per season on average.
he played more than 60 games just twice in 7 season and never more than 68GP ( that was his rookie year).
with the 2 Covid seasons ([..]) his numbers are 68, 50, 53, [63, 56], 47; 62* this year max if he stays healthy.
Why take the risk?

 

[Chainshot]

 

[Dingo44]

 

[BFLO]

I think it would be wise to be worried about Orlov's down year.

he's going to be 32, the age where most NHL defensemen tend to quickly decline.

Sure, he could go on and play well for 5 more years and have some great season, but the odds are against that.

A team trading for him is going to likely look to extend him to maximize the value of what they gave up to acquire him, and he will be looking for his retirement contract. While most defensemen start to quickly decline at 32, it also stands that most D are borderline unserviceable by 34. (there are only 18 defensemen in the league that are 34 or older, and several of no longer very good or unable to play).

I think it is safe to play the odds in these situations and expect a large regression, versus hoping the player is an anomaly and not the norm.

You do make a good point with the age curve. I wouldn't want to sign him past 35. And I would expect significant decline in year 34, and 35.

Most of the players who tend to defy the age curve an extra few seasons, or at least remain good after significant decline are the elite/borderline elite players. I'd put Orlov in the borderline elite category. He's a similar quality player to Ekholm, although more offensively focused. He's 1 year younger and a UFA to be.


Speaking of small numbers of D-men at the extreme ends of the age curve....

There's only 13 defensemen 22 years old or younger in the league who have played 35+ games this season.

3 of them are in our top 4.

 

[toddkaz]

Doesn't seem like these numbers match his production on the ice. These are pretty good stats.

 

[Chainshot]

Doesn't seem like these numbers match his production on the ice. These are pretty good stats.


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Which is one of the reasons why the cards don't always match. We know that Quinn and Peterka both tend to not get minutes in close games late, when other teams are pressing hard. These are situationally useful and his card has looked basically the same since December, but there is a great deal more to get out of Quinn than he's been able to deliver so far. And that's normal for him over two other levels of development where he showed the tools the first year and then ripped it up the next. It's how he did it in the OHL and then the AHL. Next year, he could put all of those tools together with another summer of getting some mass on those bones so he's not being knocked down by a hard pass.

 

[Gabrielor]

Bored, so let's get flamed.


2023-2024 Buffalo Sabres
Skinner Thompson Tuch
Meier Cozens Quinn
Peterka Krebs Kane
Foligno Kampf Hathaway
Samuelsson Dahlin
Power Gudas
Middleton Jokiharju
Luukkonen
Varlamov

Asplund
Lyubushkin

Savoie, Kulich, Levi, Rosen still in the org.

1st-23,Ostlund,Olofsson are the head-liners for Meier.
Girgensons/Okposo decide to leave themselves, they aren't kicked out.
Mittelstadt/Bryson go to MIN for Foligno,Middleton,some pick/prospect.
Rest are UFAs on 1-3 year deals. Kane is Patrick, and the deal is short. PP placeholder until Savoie gets here.

 

[Chainshot]

Bored, so let's get flamed.


2023-2024 Buffalo Sabres
Skinner Thompson Tuch
Meier Cozens Quinn
Peterka Krebs Kane
Foligno Kampf Hathaway
Samuelsson Dahlin
Power Gudas
Middleton Jokiharju
Luukkonen
Varlamov

Asplund
Lyubushkin

Savoie, Kulich, Levi, Rosen still in the org.

1st-23,Ostlund,Olofsson are the head-liners for Meier.
Girgensons/Okposo decide to leave themselves, they aren't kicked out.
Mittelstadt/Bryson go to MIN for Foligno,Middleton,some pick/prospect.
Rest are UFAs on 1-3 year deals. Kane is Patrick, and the deal is short. PP placeholder until Savoie gets here.

That's remarkably ambitious and I appreciate the effort. While the returns may or may not be ballpark... let's play this hypothetical game:

That third line is a defensive zone wreck. Flip Kane to wing with Cozens/Meier since they are both 200' players. I'm not sure how Kane who likes the puck on his stick going into the offensive zone meshes with Cozens who has a big strength in getting into the zone but Krebs-Peterka is not enough to cover for the d-zone suck that is PKane.

I dig the energy line. I don't know if Gudas is a capable 2nd pairing defender any more. He's fifth in TOI/Game in Florida and that even seems like too much sometimes. He's been a thought for so long, it's hard sometimes to put that to rest as the player ages out of their former position.

I would be amazed at them signing five UFA's onto the team in light of the talk of growing things together and bringing in people of the same sort of age as their core which seems like somewhere between Tuch (27) and Power (20).

 

[Beerz]

Bored, so let's get flamed.


2023-2024 Buffalo Sabres
Skinner Thompson Tuch
Meier Cozens Quinn
Peterka Krebs Kane
Foligno Kampf Hathaway
Samuelsson Dahlin
Power Gudas
Middleton Jokiharju
Luukkonen
Varlamov

Asplund
Lyubushkin

Savoie, Kulich, Levi, Rosen still in the org.

1st-23,Ostlund,Olofsson are the head-liners for Meier.
Girgensons/Okposo decide to leave themselves, they aren't kicked out.
Mittelstadt/Bryson go to MIN for Foligno,Middleton,some pick/prospect.
Rest are UFAs on 1-3 year deals. Kane is Patrick, and the deal is short. PP placeholder until Savoie gets here.

I really have no urge for Kane but he would be a nice upgrade on PP1 over Cozens and Meier replacing Skinner on PP1 ...

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Doesn't seem like these numbers match his production on the ice. These are pretty good stats.


View attachment 653755

maybe late to the party but quinns number have finally sold me that im not interested in an available trade that requires him going back

there might be only 10 or so players league wide that I'd be interested in over seeing where Quinns development takes him, interestingly 4 might be goalies

 

[Gabrielor]

That's remarkably ambitious and I appreciate the effort. While the returns may or may not be ballpark... let's play this hypothetical game:

That third line is a defensive zone wreck. Flip Kane to wing with Cozens/Meier since they are both 200' players. I'm not sure how Kane who likes the puck on his stick going into the offensive zone meshes with Cozens who has a big strength in getting into the zone but Krebs-Peterka is not enough to cover for the d-zone suck that is PKane.

I dig the energy line. I don't know if Gudas is a capable 2nd pairing defender any more. He's fifth in TOI/Game in Florida and that even seems like too much sometimes. He's been a thought for so long, it's hard sometimes to put that to rest as the player ages out of their former position.

I would be amazed at them signing five UFA's onto the team in light of the talk of growing things together and bringing in people of the same sort of age as their core which seems like somewhere between Tuch (27) and Power (20).

Third line would get the easy street minutes, and I trust Krebs to continue on his development path.

Energy line...I'm going to say the quiet thing out loud. It isn't going to happen, because culture, but I want to replace 28/21 with some actual energy/defensive players that'll stand up for teammates when these games become real. I respect their contributions, but I need more than a great effort empty net goal every 15 games.

Gudas 2nd line...is ambitious, but all UFAs would be short, and it's likely our 1st/other assets will need to go to 2nd pair d eventually.

I know Adams won't change over as much as I just did, but he should when it's non-core guys. I identify the core as Thompson, Dahlin, Power, Cozens, Samuelsson, with 2 more open slots. Guys surrounding that core I won't move, and who could be core, are Quinn, Krebs, Tuch, and Peterka. Skinner stays here for now due to contract. That leaves Olofsson, Asplund, Mittelstadt, Bryson, Jost, Jokiharju. I didn't move Joker, but the rest are most suitable in roles which other guys will soon replace them.

I really have no urge for Kane but he would be a nice upgrade on PP1 over Cozens and Meier replacing Skinner on PP1 ...

My desire to add Kane short term is entirely due to playmaking on the PP. No Buffalo connection or anything. I think they could get 1-2 years from him as they shape into a contender.

 

[Gabrielor]

Disclaimer: A lot of opinions on Kane I've gotten from friends and his, ahem, bad fit for the room.

If Kane is indeed a bad fit for the room, I burn this mock, and do shots of the captain until I forgot I suggested it.

 

[BG82]

I've completely got off the big splash moves. I think we roll with the core that's gonna be here for a while. Maybe a bottom six forward and/or bottom pairing D man

 

[Zman5778]

Disclaimer: A lot of opinions on Kane I've gotten from friends and his, ahem, bad fit for the room.

If Kane is indeed a bad fit for the room, I burn this mock, and do shots of the captain until I forgot I suggested it.

I don't see how Kane is a good fit for this room.

P.Kane would have fit in perfectly with Eichel/E-Kane/Bogosian if that tells you anything.

 

[Gabrielor]

I don't see how Kane is a good fit for this room.

P.Kane would have fit in perfectly with Eichel/E-Kane/Bogosian if that tells you anything.

Hahahaha, yeah. My prediction came true. The flames for suggesting Kane were hot (I posted this elsewhere too, not just here)

I'm binning that part. I have no defense.

 

[Aladyyn]

Doesn't seem like these numbers match his production on the ice. These are pretty good stats.


View attachment 653755

They match his results.

He's goint to be a monster with a couple more years of physical development

 

[Jim Bob]

Hahahaha, yeah. My prediction came true. The flames for suggesting Kane were hot (I posted this elsewhere too, not just here)

I'm binning that part. I have no defense.

I am less worried about the locker room stuff.

I think PKane to Buffalo doesn't happen because I do not think Kane wants the smoke that would come with playing in his hometown. The rumors that he wanted a trade to the Rangers and then Toronto has me expecting him to sign with a big city team as opposed to signing with the Sabres.

He has spent his entire career playing in Chicago and reportedly he loves the big city life he has there. My guess is that he signs with a team like Vegas or LA or Boston or Florida or Toronto or maybe even re-sign in Chicago.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Doesn't seem like these numbers match his production on the ice. These are pretty good stats.


View attachment 653755

He gets a lot of good looks and high danger chances, but as we've seen of late he either passes them up or whiffs on them. He does a good job of helping generate scoring chances and he's pretty good at stripping pucks also. I think where that chart gets a little skewed is that while he does those things he has had some very major brain farts on the ice leading to turnover or odd man rushes against. If he generates several scoring chances during a game, but also makes a terrible turnover that results in a goal against his fancy stats will still look good because of how many scoring chances he was involved in.

I think it's still a good sign, he's doing a lot of things well. The blunders and turnovers are part of him learning to play in the NHL and also a sign he needs to get stronger both physically and on the puck. Another year or two and he's going to be extremely dangerous I think.

 

[Jim Bob]

Pronman: Top college, CHL and European free agents for NHL teams

Could any of these players become the next Andrei Kuzmenko, Ilya Mikheyev or Danny DeKeyser?

theathletic.com

Pronman is not a Pulli fanboy:

Longshots to play in the NHL​

23. Valetti Pulli, LHD, TPS-Liiga: Pulli is a massive defenseman at 6-foot-6 who became a regular this season with a good TPS club and got an invite to Finland’s national team. He has some hockey sense, but his puck game is limited. I’ve seen worse feet on a big guy like him but I wouldn’t call his skating an asset either. He will probably get signed but it’s a long path for him to the NHL I think.

He does have a few D at the top of the list, though:

Projected to play NHL games​

1. Hardy Haman Aktell, LHD, Vaxjo-SHL: Haman Aktell, a former Nashville draft pick, has been a quality member of a top SHL team this season in Vaxjo. Haman Aktell is a huge defenseman who was often injured shortly after Nashville drafted him. He’s been healthy the last few years, though, and his offensive touch has taken off this season. I don’t view him as a big points producer in North America, but he can make a good first pass and has a strong point shot. His skating will be a major limitation in the NHL, but I think he defends well enough to potentially overcome that and be a third-pair defenseman in the league.

2. Sam Malinski, RHD, Cornell-ECAC: Malinski has been a top defenseman in college this season. He has excellent playmaking ability. He makes a lot of difficult passes in the offensive zone and has the ability to run a pro power play with his vision and shot. His skating is solid too and he can create with his skill and feet. Malinski isn’t the biggest defender but he competes well enough that I think he has a shot to be a good pro.

3. Jake Livingstone, RHD, Minnesota State-CCHA: Livingston was a top free-agent target in 2022 but decided to go back to Mankato. He’s not a flashy player, and while he has a good point shot he doesn’t have a ton of offensive skill and his mobility is just OK. Livingston is a 6-foot-3, intelligent, two-way defenseman though. He has enough puck game to project to make NHL outlet passes and the occasional tough O-zone play. Even with his skating, his size and work rate should allow him to take third-pair minutes in the league.

 

[Chainshot]

Pronman: Top college, CHL and European free agents for NHL teams

Could any of these players become the next Andrei Kuzmenko, Ilya Mikheyev or Danny DeKeyser?

theathletic.com

Pronman is not a Pulli fanboy:



He does have a few D at the top of the list, though:

Given Pronman's past preferences, it isn't any wonder that a large defensive defenseman is not to his tastes. Think back to his rating of someone like Samuelsson even as recently as early last season where he had him below Johnson in his ratings (12th).

 

[TehDoak]

No idea on actual availability, but if I'm putting together a wishlist of forwards at the deadline.

Colton Sissons
Boone Jenner
Nico Sturm
Adam Henrique

I'm probably leaning torwards a cheaper pickup like Sturm that can play down the lineup a bit more.

 

[Ace]

Kevyn can cancel his plans of trying to find his phone. His replacement level AHL D he has to turn to in a playoff race is going to be ok.

that was a close one.

 

[Chainshot]

Also, no mention of Parker Ford, Nick Poisson or Zach Metsa in that Pronman article, not even in the HM's at the end of it. Oooohkay....

Nice to see him up on Smejkal who I wouldn't mind as part of their Czech enclave with the idea that he's a possible future replacement in the bottom 6 for the game Okposo and Girgensons bring since that's something they don't really have.

 

[toddkaz]

Jumping to next year with 4 UFA positions with Okposo, Girgensons, Anderson and Vinny do any prospects make the jump to the NHL?

Kulich starts in the AHL next year, Savoie is in a tough spot its WHL or NHL that leaves resigning Okposo and/or Girgensons and perhaps Johnson signing and making the club next year.

We have 2 open spots on the roster for next year not including trades and signings.

Does that sound about right?

Just trying to get an idea of what the roster will look like after the trade deadline and next year.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Jumping to next year with 4 UFA positions with Okposo, Girgensons, Anderson and Vinny do any prospects make the jump to the NHL?

Kulich starts in the AHL next year, Savoie is in a tough spot its WHL or NHL that leaves resigning Okposo and/or Girgensons and perhaps Johnson signing and making the club next year.

We have 2 open spots on the roster for next year not including trades and signings.

Does that sound about right?

Just trying to get an idea of what the roster will look like after the trade deadline and next year.

Sounds about right. Asplund and Jost are also RFA's... and Bjork if that matters which it doesn't. Seems they went 2 years on a lot of guys with Olofsson, Mitts, Dahlin, Joker, Boosh, Bryson, Power, Krebs, Comrie, and UPL all having their deals expire after next season.

It makes sense given they started out this season viewing it as another development year. The results thus far have probably exceeded expectations, and they were very likely viewing next season as the one where they decide who the core players are among many of those expiring contracts.