Roster thread: Get To Work (2022-2023 Season)

[SnuggaRUDE]

Sure, if you just want a team full of scoring wingers, I guess you're right, but that's not how good rosters are built IMO. The top teams in this league aren't built that way at least.

Well Buffalo is going to have a real shot at a full up top 9 with 3 of their 4 recent 1sts on ELC.

You need roles for development.

buffalo drafted 10+ F in 20-22 drafts. There is also Krebs.

Skiiner, tage, Cozens, Tuch are going to be around a while.

you also have mitts and Olofsson in the near term.

you are going to be blocking player development if you want to go out and acquire more wingers.

gojng forward the core of the teams need to be those who can play center. Unless it’s someone very special, wingers will be replaceable just like RBs in football.

Who’s blocked? Mitts, Krebs, Okposo, Girg, Jost can all be replaced

 

[Dubi Doo]

For perspective

Dahlin 19
Power 13
Samuelsson 11
Jokijarhu 2
Lyubushkin 2
Clague -2
Bryson -16

I'd like to preface this by saying- Ive only watched 2/3 of the past few games, so take this post with a grain of salt.

Lyubushkin is starting to play better. I have hope he'll be a good bottom pairing defenseman for us for the next couple of years. Fingers crossed.

Im also partial to Jokiharju. He's looked better lately. His issue seems to be- he's a bit injury prone. He's incredibly inconsistent because of that. Im intrigued to see what the future holds for him. There's a fair chance he'll be a solid defenseman in this league. Chance being the key word.

I'd like to upgrade Bryson. I think that's a realistic goal they can accomplish in the next few months if he shows he cant hold down a bottom pairing role with Lyubushkin, which seems to be the case.

Definitely could use some depth, though.

 

[Fezzy126]

Bryson/Boosh are slowly winning back Granato's confidence in them. I found it interesting that Boosh was out there late with Dahlin on the shift leading to Cozens' empty netter. Bryson gets a lot a shit around here, not all of it undeserved, but he's been a hell of a lot better the past month.

Bryson and Boosh have been together in the 3rd pairing role for 14 of the past 15 games. While they're still prone to a big hiccup now and then, the underlying metrics have been very good:

The problem has been that those hiccups often wind up in the net. They're starting to sort that out more recently, so hopefully the trend continues. But I've seen more solid than bad play out of them the more they play with each other.

Bryson and Olofsson were huge whipping boys early on, but they both have improved their play recently and don't deserve the hate lately.

 

[Fezzy126]

Both in assets and long-term cash/cap space.

He'd be an excellent fit next to Cozens..............but I debate if he's worth all it'd cost.

He is.

There's not a lot I wouldn't give up for Meier. I haven't felt this way about a forward that was available since Mark Stone. While Meier isn't in the same tier as Stone, he's a fantastic player that would compliment our lineup so well. Fast, physical, shooting mentality (last year he was 3rd in the league in shots, this year he's 2nd), not allergic to the crease, and he plays all 200 feet.

Imagine a player putting up a chart like this for the past 3 years on a team as bad as San Jose:

Again, there's not a lot I wouldn't give up for him...

 

[Chainshot]

Bryson and Boosh have been together in the 3rd pairing role for 14 of the past 15 games. While they're still prone to a big hiccup now and then, the underlying metrics have been very good:

View attachment 641481

The problem has been that those hiccups often wind up in the net. They're starting to sort that out more recently, so hopefully the trend continues. But I've seen more solid than bad play out of them the more they play with each other.

Bryson and Olofsson were huge whipping boys early on, but they both have improved their play recently and don't deserve the hate lately.

Thank you for that. I know from doing some quick looks at things like Evolving's player cards, Bryson's defensive numbers are actually very good compared to the rest of the non-Dahlin defense. It's good to see the pairing minutes expressed. Last night, they gave up a goal on a 3-on-2 which had more to do with the forwards all looking bagged and not able to get back on the play than any miscue by the defensemen. Other than that, it was what we've seen out of them a lot - kill the play coming at them and then move the puck up the ice. Bryson had some zone entries, Lyubushkin filled a lane a couple of times. Boosh has had a couple of excellent passing plays, even stretching the defense the other night in his 3 assist extravaganza. They do not deserve to be pummeled for how they are playing right now.

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

He is.

There's not a lot I wouldn't give up for Meier. I haven't felt this way about a forward that was available since Mark Stone. While Meier isn't in the same tier as Stone, he's a fantastic player that would compliment our lineup so well. Fast, physical, shooting mentality (last year he was 3rd in the league in shots, this year he's 2nd), not allergic to the crease, and he plays all 200 feet.

Imagine a player putting up a chart like this for the past 3 years on a team as bad as San Jose:

View attachment 641486

Again, there's not a lot I wouldn't give up for him...

There will be another Meier available in the offseason. Two more next year. There's always good wingers available. We have good wingers already and more coming.

What we really need in order to compete at the highest level is another (at least) really good 2 way D. We also need a goalie but we at least have good long term options there.

Spending assets right now on another winger could work out, but it's a risk. Go out and get the d and then if you still have a need and assets to burn, go get your Meier then. There will be one available when we get there.

 

[Zach716]

There will be another Meier available in the offseason. Two more next year. There's always good wingers available. We have good wingers already and more coming.

What we really need in order to compete at the highest level is another (at least) really good 2 way D. We also need a goalie but we at least have good long term options there.

Spending assets right now on another winger could work out, but it's a risk. Go out and get the d and then if you still have a need and assets to burn, go get your Meier then. There will be one available when we get there.

I feel the same way but I’m also greedy and would explode if we were able to grab Timo in his prime with an extension. We certainly have the assets.

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

I feel the same way but I’m also greedy and would explode if we were able to grab Timo in his prime with an extension. We certainly have the assets.

I mean.... same. It would be exciting.

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

You know what else wouldn't be a perfect fit but would be extremely exciting? Karlsson! Imagine how fun that would be. The team would be a must watch. Goals EVERYWHERE. I'd love it, honestly even though long term it's not ideal.

I predict they trade for Chychrun at the deadline. That's their guy and Adams is just saving his best offer for prime time.

 

[start winnin]

This trade deadline is going to be so interesting for us, do we end up making a big splash for a Meier or Chychrun or do we stand pat and let the growth continue?

 

[Djp]

There will be another Meier available in the offseason. Two more next year. There's always good wingers available. We have good wingers already and more coming.

What we really need in order to compete at the highest level is another (at least) really good 2 way D. We also need a goalie but we at least have good long term options there.

Spending assets right now on another winger could work out, but it's a risk. Go out and get the d and then if you still have a need and assets to burn, go get your Meier then. There will be one available when we get there.

i agree….there will be a bunch of wingers out there. I’m not selling the farm for him. I look at him in the same ballpark as Reinhart and Fiala A 20s pick+ decent prospect. and equivalent would be something like Ostlund+ flyers 2nd. That is not moving 4 things like some are proposing on here.
ROR was 24, 6 yrs after draft year. next season Meier is 8 yrs after draft. ROR extension took him thru 31 yr old season

there are going to be some big UFAs out there. Other teams might need to unload other players

 

[HaNotsri]

We have to bid on every available good/great player regardless just to drive the prices up. If we happen to win it should be a good deal but we need to make other eastern conference team pay more.

 

[toomuchsauce]

Timo Meier was drafted 9th overall in 2015 and he's 9th in total points from that draft class. The perfect draft pick.

 

[Fezzy126]

There will be another Meier available in the offseason. Two more next year. There's always good wingers available. We have good wingers already and more coming.

What we really need in order to compete at the highest level is another (at least) really good 2 way D. We also need a goalie but we at least have good long term options there.

Spending assets right now on another winger could work out, but it's a risk. Go out and get the d and then if you still have a need and assets to burn, go get your Meier then. There will be one available when we get there.

I think you're underselling Meier's talent level. He is just under the Tkachuk/Stone tier, and some might debate that he's every bit on their level:



Those type of guys don't get traded every year, and the thing is, I don't think Meier would command the same type of payment, which makes him even more appealing.

He's probably not getting traded in season so the discussion is likely moot, but man it would be amazing to see him alongside Cozens and Peterka.

 

[BG82]

This trade deadline is going to be so interesting for us, do we end up making a big splash for a Meier or Chychrun or do we stand pat and let the growth continue?

I think we go out and add a core piece. Were knocking on the door right now. This fanbase needs it.

Were in such good position with young talent and still have a plethora of draft picks.

Who are some names to watch other then Chychryn and Timo Meier ?

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

I think you're underselling Meier's talent level. He is just under the Tkachuk/Stone tier, and some might debate that he's every bit on their level:



Those type of guys don't get traded every year, and the thing is, I don't think Meier would command the same type of payment, which makes him even more appealing.

He's probably not getting traded in season so the discussion is likely moot, but man it would be amazing to see him alongside Cozens and Peterka.

Tkachuk himself was traded last year! And so was Huberdeau, Reinhart, Fiala. Gaudreau signed in Columbus.

Are all these guys the same quality? I don't know but they're all really good wingers who would make us better and they all changed hands recently.

You have to admit good wingers are easier to acquire than good top 4 D, right?

Edit: Tuch

 

[Fezzy126]

Tkachuk himself was traded last year! And so was Huberdeau, Reinhart, Fiala. Gaudreau signed in Columbus.

Are all these guys the same quality? I don't know but they're all really good wingers who would make us better and they all changed hands recently.

You have to admit good wingers are easier to acquire than good top 4 D, right?

Edit: Tuch

Yes, a good winger is much easier to acquire than a top 4 D.

An elite winger entering the prime of career with no injury history or off-ice baggage that generates top-3 level shot volume is not.

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

Yes, a good winger is much easier to acquire than a top 4 D.

An elite winger entering the prime of career with no injury history or off-ice baggage that generates top-3 level shot volume is not.

Ok, but we agree that:

He's not going to be easy to acquire.​

​

There are other good winger options that will be available in the future.​

​

What he brings is not something we currently lack (scoring).​

​

He plays a position we're already stacked at for the future.​

​

We have other glaring needs, short and long term, that will also be difficult to acquire, if not more.​

​

We have assets, but not unlimited assets.​

He's a great player, no doubt. I just don't think this is the spot for this move.

 

[Jacob582]

I would be willing to pay similar to DeBrincat price for Timo Meier without an extension in place.

 

[old kummelweck]

If we are giving up the pieces anyways I'd rather do it for Chychrun who is under team control till 25 for 4.5

They could do both. If this team is ready now, why wait for Ostlund and Savoie to develop. Even Quinn or Peterka could be leveraged.

 

[Jim Bob]

Seven teams that could (and should) trade for Jakob Chychrun

Jakob Chychrun's cap hit and versatility are just some of what makes him valuable at the March 3 trade deadline.

theathletic.com

Buffalo Sabres ​

Speaking of Buffalo, how aggressive does this team get now that things are finally turning around for the Sabres? This team has to look at players who can help now and in the future, which Chychrun accomplishes. But where does he actually fit in the lineup? Mattias Samuelsson and Owen Power round out the left side of the top four. Would Chychrun slot to the right bump Henri Jokiharju to the third pair? And what about the power play? Rasmus Dahlin is the rightful PP1 quarterback, with Power on the second. Ideally, Chychrun has some time on the advantage which then would require knocking a forward off PP2 and rolling with three forwards. Going for a Timo Meier-like option makes a lot more sense for Buffalo, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them assess all of their options, either.

16 Stats: Buffalo's playoff push, Jakob Chychrun's value, Zach Hyman's hot streak

Just as William Nylander has found the ability to produce offense with Auston Matthews, Zach Hyman has found the same with Connor McDavid.

theathletic.com

There’s roughly 32-to-36 games left in the season and the playoff race is really starting to heat up. Hotter than usual.

One surprising name in the thick of the race is the Buffalo Sabres who currently sit eighth in the East by points percentage and have a plus-20 goal differential, the 11th-best mark in the league.

That seems like a team that should have a decent shot at the playoffs and yet they currently sit at 10 percent per our model. Shouldn’t they be much higher? The Sabres are one point up on the Florida Panthers with three games in hand, a team whose playoff chances sit at 58 percent. Shouldn’t they be much lower?

The biggest reason they aren’t is priors. Everything we knew about every player and every team before this season can’t simply be thrown out the window. Though Buffalo has played well, the model needs more than 47 games to be convinced. Though the Panthers have struggled, that’s still a team that won the Presidents’ Trophy last season.

Right now the Sabres are scoring more goals and allowing fewer than the Panthers, but that’s a trend that should reverse based on the talent of both teams. The offensive weapons on Florida have a longer track record of success and while the Panthers’ defense is sketchy, the Sabres’ has a history of being much worse. The model currently expects Florida to be the league’s third-best offensive team going forward and 20th-best defensive team. Buffalo, in contrast, is 12th and 29th.

That’s not just based on priors either. This season’s results so far probably aren’t a proper reflection of either team’s ability. The Panthers are a better team than their results indicate while Buffalo, as fun as the Sabres have been, look like a team that’s overachieving. At five-on-five the Panthers remain a stronger team at both ends of the ice and their expected goal rates on special teams suggest they should have better results there than the Sabres down the stretch. Should.

Right now it looks like a very interesting race between the two teams that aren’t playing as expected, for better or worse. But there’s another reason beyond “prior expectations” for why the Panthers are expected to finish the season with 94 points, seven more than Buffalo: schedule strength.

Schedule strength doesn’t matter as much over a full season, but it can be a big deal over smaller stretches of games. With 32-to-36 games left, it can be a difference-maker and it has real potential to be with this race in particular.

The Sabres have games in hand, yes, but they also have the league’s second-toughest schedule going forward. On average, the teams they’ll be facing are expected to finish the season with 95 points on average. In contrast, the Panthers have it easier with a middle-of-the-pack schedule and an average opponent’s strength of 91.5 points.

An even bigger plus for the Panthers though is how many of their remaining games are at home. Florida has 32 games left, but 20 of those will be played in Sunrise. Buffalo, on the other hand, will play 19 of its remaining 35 games on the road.

Anything can happen down the stretch and the Sabres have played well enough to warrant serious consideration for a playoff spot this season. But there’s a reason it’s still much more likely that they’ll be on the outside looking in once again this season.

16 Stats​

1. Calling Buffalo one of the league’s worst defensive teams isn’t much of a stretch. The Sabres are a young team with questionable goaltending that plays a chaotic brand of hockey. They allow a lot of controlled entries, chances off of those entries and struggle to get the puck out safely.

But offensively? There’s a middle ground between the conservative caution of calling Buffalo the “12th-best offensive team” and the outlandish optimism of expecting the Sabres to continue to score more goals than anybody. With the puck on their sticks, this team does look for real.

According to data tracked by Corey Sznajder only four teams generate more high danger passes per 60 than Buffalo’s 0.95: New Jersey, Pittsburgh, Vegas and Florida. Only one team creates more shots off the rush than Buffalo’s 10.1: New Jersey. No team opts to carry the puck in over dumping it more than Buffalo, which does it 58 percent of the time.

All three of those facts are conducive to a team that can not only create more chances, but finish on a higher percentage of them. Buffalo is currently 10th in expected goal rate at five-on-five and second in shooting percentage. And while the latter number may regress, the Sabres earn enough chances to make up for it.

Once this team figures out how to play without the puck they’re going to be a really scary group. They already are.

2. Buffalo’s offence is led by Tage Thompson and he’s been an absolute beast this year, obviously. Sznajder’s data really helps highlight one reason why that is, specifically with Thompson’s play off the rush. On average 32 percent of zone entries lead to scoring chances. Thompson earns one on 58 percent of his zone entries.

That’s not the highest mark in the league (Matthew Tkachuk is at 69 percent), but Thompson does it at volume with nearly 14 controlled entries per 60 which is four more than Tkachuk and among the highest marks in the league. That leads to 8.1 scoring chances per 60, leading all players.

Thompson’s ability to turn expected goals into goals at such a high rate would generally be deemed “unsustainable” for most players. But his ability to generate so much off the rush makes his finishing impact much more plausible. Doing that at his size is a big part of what makes him such a unique player. He’s also one of the league leaders in high-danger shot contributions.

12. One of the primary reasons the Arizona Coyotes were so awful last year was the sudden decline of Jakob Chychrun. He looked like a burgeoning stud in 2021 with his ability to put up big points while driving play in some of the league’s most difficult minutes. He played at a two-win pace; legit No. 1 defenseman numbers. In 2021-22 he struggled to do either and the end result was a sub-replacement-level season.

Which one was the real Chychrun? It’s looking like the 2021 version and that’s good news for prospective buyers who were worried about his play last season. Chychrun is back up to a 63-point pace while leading the Coyotes’ blue line in expected goals percentage (46.6 percent) and actual goals percentage (54.4 percent). The fact that the Coyotes are able to outscore anyone with Chychrun on the ice feels like a miracle and a testament to his impact at both ends of the ice. He’s doing all that in tough minutes too, and the end result is a 2.9-win pace.

I’m not sure if Chychrun is worth the exorbitant price the Coyotes are asking for — last year’s play is still of some worry — but he looks much closer after a bounce-back year. He’s a serious difference-maker.

Those two things would seem to go hand in hand. And it is nice to see the Sabres speed and youth translating to on-ice results.

 

[Panthaz89]

Bryson and Boosh have been together in the 3rd pairing role for 14 of the past 15 games. While they're still prone to a big hiccup now and then, the underlying metrics have been very good:

View attachment 641481

The problem has been that those hiccups often wind up in the net. They're starting to sort that out more recently, so hopefully the trend continues. But I've seen more solid than bad play out of them the more they play with each other.

Bryson and Olofsson were huge whipping boys early on, but they both have improved their play recently and don't deserve the hate lately.

I really don't like Bryson a lot of those "hiccups" are him getting outmuscled so easily in our zone and giving an incredibly dangerous chance up that's why they easily end up in the back of the net. Not all chances are equal even high danger chances.

 

[old kummelweck]

I really don't like Bryson a lot of those "hiccups" are him getting outmuscled so easily in our zone and giving an incredibly dangerous chance up that's why they easily end up in the back of the net. Not all chances are equal even high danger chances.

I think we are spoiled since Bryson faces the same situations as Power and Dahlin do, but those guys get themselves out of trouble because they have super-human ability.

I see Bryson getting into trouble when he tries to use his skill and skating to escape the pressure because he has no support. The reason I think he does this is because he knows that if he gets trapped on the boards in the dzone, that he will get out muscled.

 

[Dingo44]

I think we are spoiled since Bryson faces the same situations as Power and Dahlin do, but those guys get themselves out of trouble because they have super-human ability.

I see Bryson getting into trouble when he tries to use his skill and skating to escape the pressure because he has no support. The reason I think he does this is because he knows that if he gets trapped on the boards in the dzone, that he will get out muscled.

Good point. Any defenseman is going to look worse in comparison to Dahlin and Power. No matter who they are it's going to be a big drop just because Dahlin and Power are that good.

 

[Bendium]

I like Chychrun as a player, but the situation is not right for me. The price is to high for where he is at in his contract. You cannot extend him if you trade him, and this summer his no trade clause kicks in making it hard to trade him to recoup assets later if he either won't resign or ends up not fitting the team well. Good player, just wrong price and time in his contract.

If Timo Meier is really available (with and extension), I would rather spend the assets there than Chychrun.

I would also go get Ekholm as he fits the actual need better, would cost less, and has a better contract term.

To pay for it I am likely trading Olofsson to gather asset value for the trade. If they take Quinn in the Meier trade then Olofsson likely stays till the offseason.

Skinner - Thompson - Tuch
Mitts/Meier - Cozens - Mitts/Meier
Quinn - Jost - JJP
Girgs - Krebs - Okposo

Sammy - Dahlin'
Power - Ekholm
XXX - Joker
XXX= Bryson/Boosh/Clague possibly Johnson

Still some work to do but its a good start.