Roster thread: Get To Work (2022-2023 Season)

[Dirty Dog]

So it's great that they're off to a flying start and all, but a lot of this is on the back of hot shooting and stellar goaltending. If you don't me before the season that Comrie was going to come in and put up Vezina stats, I probably wouldn't believe you. if you told me Anderson was also going to do so I'd probably block you.

8 GSAA is not sustainable. Which I guess is fine, it's a young team, at some point they'll cool down.

But it’s not like we are winning games by single goal. We could have afforded worse goaltending in most of our wins

As in, we can afford to have goaltending come back down to earth

 

[Ace]

So it's great that they're off to a flying start and all, but a lot of this is on the back of hot shooting and stellar goaltending. If you don't me before the season that Comrie was going to come in and put up Vezina stats, I probably wouldn't believe you. if you told me Anderson was also going to do so I'd probably block you.

8 GSAA is not sustainable. Which I guess is fine, it's a young team, at some point they'll cool down.

If you told me Comrie did it I’d say well…his sample size last year suggested it was possible he was actually really good and in need of starts. His high danger saves actually say there’s a chance he’s a good goalie hitting his prime whose flaw was lack of usage.

and on the shooting thing…

yeah Dahlin isn’t going to score every game and shoot 25 percent.

They also have one total goal from two players who combined for SEVENTY ONE goals last year on the top line. I suspect Skinner won’t shoot 0 percent all year and Tage will get more than 2 shots on goal per game when the dust settles.

They also are unlikely to get total inflated shooting percentages by scoring an average of one empty net goal per game over 82 games. But those goals haven’t been…you know…actually necessary

 

[elchud]

I feel basically the same about the roster as I did three months ago.

One of Peterka/Quinn/Krebs should stay in Rochester. Looking like Quinn. Would rather Murray or Biro be the 14th forward than Quinn.

The 4C should be a...4C. Girgensons or Sheahan.

Hino as 13th forward but he has shown that he is crucial and that 3rd line is magic.

If Krebs stays up he needs to play. If they absolutely have to play him at C, having two veteran and defensively responsible wings is the way to go.

Skinner - TT - Tuch
Asplund - Mitts - Olofsson
Peterka - Cozens - Hinostroza
Girgensons - Krebs - Okposo
Sheahan/Murray

Quinn being in Rochester for most/all of the year is akin to Savoie being in WHL most/all of the year. It is what it is.

I'd rather Sheahan play 4C and Krebs park in Rochester but the organization doesn't want that and that is a remarkably offensive idea to many people so whatevs.

Optimistic for playoffs. We have the depth to overcome injuries. If Mittelstadt and Cozens maintain their level of play, and the goalie tandem can hold it down (.910 minimum) we are a playoff caliber team.

Don't like to see defense cracks this early, they need to take their time with Sammy and Joker, be as cautious as possible and do not rush them back.

It's really early, but curious about the long term staying power of a few forwards. Mitts/Olofsson/Hino are the obvious ones. Mitts has been one of our three best forwards 4 out of the 5 games so far this year. Olofsson moves out, Quinn moves in. Hino moves out and Savoie moves in? Unless Savoie does *another* season in Winnipeg. If we are a playoff team this year, that may be the way to go. *IF SAVOIE WAS BORN ONE DAY EARLIER* he could be in Rochester next season. Awful planning from his parents.

Forward depth, it's an amazing thing.

 

[Beerz]

a TON of Sabres talk on the PDOcast that just dropped. I’m half an hour in and it’s been all Sabres talk with love for Tage and Tuch and Peterka and Dahlin (and burying Ralph).

They’re just getting into how to fix their power play and how it doesn’t make sense that their 5 on 5 success is all off the rush and they’re great at it and they don’t even try when it’s easier with one less man to generate offense on the rush on the power play when they should be dominant at it.

Stop with the dumb ass drop pass on the PP!

 

[Jim Bob]

I feel basically the same about the roster as I did three months ago.

One of Peterka/Quinn/Krebs should stay in Rochester. Looking like Quinn. Would rather Murray or Biro be the 14th forward than Quinn.

The 4C should be a...4C. Girgensons or Sheahan.

Hino as 13th forward but he has shown that he is crucial and that 3rd line is magic.

If Krebs stays up he needs to play. If they absolutely have to play him at C, having two veteran and defensively responsible wings is the way to go.

Skinner - TT - Tuch
Asplund - Mitts - Olofsson
Peterka - Cozens - Hinostroza
Girgensons - Krebs - Okposo
Sheahan/Murray

Quinn being in Rochester for most/all of the year is akin to Savoie being in WHL most/all of the year. It is what it is.

I'd rather Sheahan play 4C and Krebs park in Rochester but the organization doesn't want that and that is a remarkably offensive idea to many people so whatevs.

Optimistic for playoffs. We have the depth to overcome injuries. If Mittelstadt and Cozens maintain their level of play, and the goalie tandem can hold it down (.910 minimum) we are a playoff caliber team.

Don't like to see defense cracks this early, they need to take their time with Sammy and Joker, be as cautious as possible and do not rush them back.

It's really early, but curious about the long term staying power of a few forwards. Mitts/Olofsson/Hino are the obvious ones. Mitts has been one of our three best forwards 4 out of the 5 games so far this year. Olofsson moves out, Quinn moves in. Hino moves out and Savoie moves in? Unless Savoie does *another* season in Winnipeg. If we are a playoff team this year, that may be the way to go. *IF SAVOIE WAS BORN ONE DAY EARLIER* he could be in Rochester next season. Awful planning from his parents.

Forward depth, it's an amazing thing.

I doubt the forwards all stay healthy for the bulk of the season. The forward depth will get tested and these forward depth "problems" will be a thing of the past.

 

[elchud]

I doubt the forwards all stay healthy for the bulk of the season. The forward depth will get tested and these forward depth "problems" will be a thing of the past.

I agree which is why sending Quinn to Rochester for a spell (and even Krebs holy be his name) is hardly problematic. Do it now while we can let them play some big minutes and get some goals scored and come back guns blazing.

 

[Chainshot]

a TON of Sabres talk on the PDOcast that just dropped. I’m half an hour in and it’s been all Sabres talk with love for Tage and Tuch and Peterka and Dahlin (and burying Ralph).

They’re just getting into how to fix their power play and how it doesn’t make sense that their 5 on 5 success is all off the rush and they’re great at it and they don’t even try when it’s easier with one less man to generate offense on the rush on the power play when they should be dominant at it.

They are doing a team per week on Mondays. I found it interesting that their own tracking did not match up with what they are getting from the league, how they talked at length about Tage being an absolute force at creating high danger chances and yet by the way the league is tracking things (and thus the info used by NaturalStatTrick), he's only got 5.

 

[BFLO]

What do you mean other than sitting your captain and making him a healthy scratch? That’s the only reason you need!

But I agree. I don’t think either need to be sat right now. But we are not scratching the captain

I could see them sitting Okposo and him being a good soldier about it. Continuing to lead by example and show the kids there’s nothing wrong with being sat a game or two on rotation. Captain Good Vibes and all.

Maybe it will even do some good for Okposo. He hasn’t looked like his revitalized self from last season yet.

 

[jc17]

a TON of Sabres talk on the PDOcast that just dropped. I’m half an hour in and it’s been all Sabres talk with love for Tage and Tuch and Peterka and Dahlin (and burying Ralph).

They’re just getting into how to fix their power play and how it doesn’t make sense that their 5 on 5 success is all off the rush and they’re great at it and they don’t even try when it’s easier with one less man to generate offense on the rush on the power play when they should be dominant at it.

I'm no tactician, but wouldn't some of this being that defenses are more likely to let their guard down and getting caught up ice at 5v5, than knowing they have to shut it down on the pp. Even a man up, 5v4 doesn't have the space of a 3v2 or 2v1.

I imagine the success of VO and tage is a reason they're looking to just get in and get set up

 

[Jim Bob]

I could see them sitting Okposo and him being a good soldier about it. Continuing to lead by example and show the kids there’s nothing wrong with being sat a game or two on rotation. Captain Good Vibes and all.

Maybe it will even do some good for Okposo. He hasn’t looked like his revitalized self from last season yet.

I think Okposo looks like a guy that is being deployed on a 4th line. He looked revitalized last season when he was deployed up the lineup.

 

[Jim Bob]

I'm no tactician, but wouldn't some of this being that defenses are more likely to let their guard down and getting caught up ice at 5v5, than knowing they have to shut it down on the pp. Even a man up, 5v4 doesn't have the space of a 3v2 or 2v1.

I imagine the success of VO and tage is a reason they're looking to just get in and get set up

Yeah, I am not sure that there are a lot of examples of a team doing well on the PP off the rush.

I think one of the challenges that the PP has had early this season is getting controlled zone entries.

The other thing that is interesting is that the PP so far this season is better when it comes to Power Play Goal Differential Per Games Played compared to the totality of the 21-22 season.

Last season they had a +41 PPGD and a .5 PPGD/GP.

This season they are a +3 PPGD and a .6 PPGD/GP.

Their PP% is down (21.2% in 21-22 to 16.7% in 22-23). But, they are getting more PP chances and more PP Time per game (2.71 PP Opp/GP in 21-22 to 3.6 this season and 4:40 PP TOI/GP in 21-22 to 5:50 this season).

 

[elchud]

Yeah, I am not sure that there are a lot of examples of a team doing well on the PP off the rush.

I think one of the challenges that the PP has had early this season is getting controlled zone entries.

The other thing that is interesting is that the PP so far this season is better when it comes to Power Play Goal Differential Per Games Played compared to the totality of the 21-22 season.

Last season they had a +41 PPGD and a .5 PPGD/GP.

This season they are a +3 PPGD and a .6 PPGD/GP.

Their PP% is down (21.2% in 21-22 to 16.7% in 22-23). But, they are getting more PP chances and more PP Time per game (2.71 PP Opp/GP in 21-22 to 3.6 this season and 4:40 PP TOI/GP in 21-22 to 5:50 this season).

One inherent problem with PP TOI is the worse your PP is (and better your PK) the more time those units will be on the ice because the entire penalty time is spent.

 

[Jim Bob]

One inherent problem with PP TOI is the worse your PP is (and better your PK) the more time those units will be on the ice because the entire penalty time is spent.

Even at 16%, the fact that the PP is +3 is probably better than all 5 on 5 situations.

Plus, it is way harder to PK than to play on the PP. So, the added PP time helps wear down the opposing team.

 

[Fezzy126]

So it's great that they're off to a flying start and all, but a lot of this is on the back of hot shooting and stellar goaltending. If you don't me before the season that Comrie was going to come in and put up Vezina stats, I probably wouldn't believe you. if you told me Anderson was also going to do so I'd probably block you.

8 GSAA is not sustainable. Which I guess is fine, it's a young team, at some point they'll cool down.

The overall team shooting percentage is a bit inflated because they have 5 ENG, which leads the league by far. If you take a look at their 5v5 SH%, it is high but not nearly as out of whack (they're currently 2nd in the league).

As their 5v5 SH% regresses back to the mean, the power play has the potential to make up the difference. There's also the potential to improve shot generation, which is still pretty low compared to the rest of the league.

Not saying it will happen, but improve in those both of those areas and the team has the potential to keep their goal scoring up while their shooting percentage regresses a bit.

 

[Chainshot]

Yeah, I am not sure that there are a lot of examples of a team doing well on the PP off the rush.

I think one of the challenges that the PP has had early this season is getting controlled zone entries.

The other thing that is interesting is that the PP so far this season is better when it comes to Power Play Goal Differential Per Games Played compared to the totality of the 21-22 season.

Last season they had a +41 PPGD and a .5 PPGD/GP.

This season they are a +3 PPGD and a .6 PPGD/GP.

Their PP% is down (21.2% in 21-22 to 16.7% in 22-23). But, they are getting more PP chances and more PP Time per game (2.71 PP Opp/GP in 21-22 to 3.6 this season and 4:40 PP TOI/GP in 21-22 to 5:50 this season).

More PP's due to being better at attacking with speed, at least thus far. (If they can clean up some stick discipline in the offensive zone, it should also cut down on the PKing too.) They're also substantially better at exits with the spread of d-zone exit guys across three pairings which means they could spend less time defending against teams that can't neutralize their speed on those exits. The Oilers gave them some fits when the forwards were chasing the play in the d-zone.

They seemed to make an adjustment in Calgary that worked in the Vancouver game - having Tuch handle the entry with speed rather than it being Dahlin on the entry. They aren't a good retrieval team right now, so shoot-ins don't really amount to much.

 

[Chainshot]

The overall team shooting percentage is a bit inflated because they have 5 ENG, which leads the league by far. If you take a look at their 5v5 SH%, it is high but not nearly as out of whack (they're currently 2nd in the league).

As their 5v5 SH% regresses back to the mean, the power play has the potential to make up the difference. There's also the potential to improve shot generation, which is still pretty low compared to the rest of the league.

Not saying it will happen, but improve in those both of those areas and the team has the potential to keep their goal scoring up while their shooting percentage regresses a bit.

I don't recall them having the sort of metal-friendly stretch as they have on this trip. All of their big guns are chunking posts and crossbars, as well as some of the support guys. Those pipe ringers don't even factor into shot totals, though the "at net" stats do reflect 'em. If they dial in a bit more, we should see an improvement in shot totals. Right now, I'm hoping they don't shuffle back out of what we see working up front until such time as it not only stops working but stops generating high danger chances.

Skinner has drawn some ire - he's plunked a couple posts, he's had a save of the year pulled out of a hat on him - and has only one game where he piled on the shots (Florida). He's flung rubber wide a number of times as well. That's a vet they should be able to rely on for more moving forward. Similarly, Quinn has yet to hit the net in three games. We know he has historically had some adjustment periods to get up to speed, that's a guy who can and likely will provide a push when he starts generating things since right now there isn't a lot happening on or off his stick.

 

[haseoke39]

So it's great that they're off to a flying start and all, but a lot of this is on the back of hot shooting and stellar goaltending. If you don't me before the season that Comrie was going to come in and put up Vezina stats, I probably wouldn't believe you. if you told me Anderson was also going to do so I'd probably block you.

8 GSAA is not sustainable. Which I guess is fine, it's a young team, at some point they'll cool down.

Some guys will cool down, some guys might heat up. That's the advantage of a roster that's mostly legit breakout candidates.

I agree the goaltending isn't going to get better. But they don't need to go 4-1 all the way either.

 

[BFLO]

I think Okposo looks like a guy that is being deployed on a 4th line. He looked revitalized last season when he was deployed up the lineup.

He had 4th line and PP time last year and looked better doing it than he has so far this year.

He hasn’t been bad, he’s been just kinda ok.

Yeah, I am not sure that there are a lot of examples of a team doing well on the PP off the rush.

I think one of the challenges that the PP has had early this season is getting controlled zone entries.

The other thing that is interesting is that the PP so far this season is better when it comes to Power Play Goal Differential Per Games Played compared to the totality of the 21-22 season.

Last season they had a +41 PPGD and a .5 PPGD/GP.

This season they are a +3 PPGD and a .6 PPGD/GP.

Their PP% is down (21.2% in 21-22 to 16.7% in 22-23). But, they are getting more PP chances and more PP Time per game (2.71 PP Opp/GP in 21-22 to 3.6 this season and 4:40 PP TOI/GP in 21-22 to 5:50 this season).

I think Boston was the #1 pp in the league with a more rush based PP in some recent seasons.

They didn’t waste time setting up a perimeter possession, they would get the puck to the net ASAP and all the forwards would crash the net and try to pot the rebound.

Seemed like every time Boston attacked the zone, our PK would still be trying to set up in their usual box and Boston would already have 3 forwards and the puck in the crease. I don’t know if they did that against every team but it certainly worked against the Sabres.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

a TON of Sabres talk on the PDOcast that just dropped. I’m half an hour in and it’s been all Sabres talk with love for Tage and Tuch and Peterka and Dahlin (and burying Ralph).

They’re just getting into how to fix their power play and how it doesn’t make sense that their 5 on 5 success is all off the rush and they’re great at it and they don’t even try when it’s easier with one less man to generate offense on the rush on the power play when they should be dominant at it.

Must listen for Sabres fans. Highly recommended. Quite analytical, without getting into the weeds of analytics.

Best quote: "Ralph Kruger needs to be in jail for what he did to Rasmus Dahlin."

Credit to @Jim Bob for bringing the PDOcast to our, or at least my, attention initially.

 

[Buffalo Norsemen]

32 Thoughts on Sabres @ 31:00 and #26 @ 43:45
Mods feel free to move this post to a more appropriate thread if applicable

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Ok, which one of you is this guy? Fess up

 

[RecycledEichel]

Trade for a Dman. We have so many assets. Relying on a 19 year old defenseman is a recipe for disaster

 

[Fjordy]

Trade for a Dman. We have so many assets. Relying on a 19 year old defenseman is a recipe for disaster

Agree, but for whom?

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Agree, but for whom?

I wish I knew. I would really like to find a RHD but I have no idea who is a good trade target without paying a ton...or who is really worth a ton.

Pesce...but I assume that's a pipe dream.

 

[Jim Bob]

I wish I knew. I would really like to find a RHD but I have no idea who is a good trade target without paying a ton...or who is really worth a ton.

Pesce...but I assume that's a pipe dream.

There is no chance that Carolina is trading Pesce who is 3rd in TOI/G this season for the Canes.

The challenge with trying to make a move now is that teams are not looking to move D, especially RHD, unless it is a guy that is getting healthy scratched and would only be an upgrade if it was a home run change of scenery move.

Bear & CDH are the two D on the Canes that might be available...