I think the BPA philosophy is part of the problem, especially with the volume of picks.
Imagine if you had a an expiring gift certificate to a clothing store and you want to make the most of it, you say "I'm going to do analysis and find the best value for this gift certificate", and you have a bunch of proven ways to show what is best and after an extensive search, you find the best made shirt there is a red polo shirt. The problem is, you already have 10 well made red polo shirts at home.
Are your calculations flawed? Not necessarily...but they don't take into consideration that you need more than a red polo shirt to make a wardrobe
When your BPA calculator keeps spitting out forward, forward, forward, it might be time to recalibrate how you are doing those calculations.