Roster Thread (2023-2024 Season)

[Irie]

They are already at 8 d-men for next year:

Dahlin, Power, Byram, Clifton, Samuelsson, Joker, Johnson, Bryson.

My guess is that Joker, a RFA with Arb rights is probably gone, and Bryson is probably non qualified.

That leaves Dahlin, Power, Bryam, Samuelsson, Clifton, and Johnson.

They probably either try to sign Bryson after non tender and or sign a 7th guy. I doubt they are going to add much in terms of actual salary to the blue line.

Clifton will be 31 in two years when his deal is up. I think it would be short-sighted to move on from the younger defensive depth before finding a replacement, knowing you will need at least one in the near future. Especially if you don't absolutely need the cap space this season.

 

[TehDoak]

Some names that matches what Adams said in the presser (4th line center to help with the PK and faceoffs)

Kevin Stenlund. Great faceoffs, some size, plays top unit for Florida's PK, UFA this summer. 27.

Not sure if Florida will let him go but they will be salary crunched this summer between Reinhart and Montour.

Teddy Blueger is also a UFA again. He's even Latvian. Maybe throw #28 on him and hope Terry doesn't notice. Of course if he's friends with Girgensons that might help (or harm!) recruiting.

Sam Carrick - Played top unit PK in Anaheim. Good at faceoffs.

If you pay top of market for this role (2-2.5M-ish), you shouldn't have too much problems recruiting, at least IMHO.

 

[Snippit]

Agreed that the simplest thing to do at this point is just hope Samuelsson figures out the right side.

Byram-Dahlin
Power-Samuelsson
Johnson-Clifton
Bryson

At least this balances the pairings.

I don’t think we’re gonna be committing much more money to defense, especially once Byram gets paid.

Benson-Thompson-Tuch
Peterka-Cozens-Quinn
XXX-XXX-Savoie
Greenway-XXX-XXX

- think Savoie will be ready, Kulich/Rosen haven’t shown much recently.
- I really want to move on from Skinner…probably not happening but I can hope
- At forward someone mentioned Nicolas Roy…that would be great for a 3C position if we can pull it off.
- Krebs can come back as 4C but I’m also okay if we move on from him
- I am also open to upgrading on Peterka

The roster needs to get heavier, faster, and better defensively. The forward core needs to be revamped to reflect that.

We need to be aggressive this summer.

 

[tsujimoto74]

This is hilarious/amazing considering my what the Sabres have been since 2015. Maybe McD feels guilty about the draft lottery

 

[TehDoak]

Clifton will be 31 in two years when his deal is up. I think it would be short-sighted to move on from the younger defensive depth before finding a replacement, knowing you will need at least one in the near future. Especially if you don't absolutely need the cap space this season.

I don't disagree with you, but I doubt they are going to want to sign him long term to a market rate contract, especially with Bryam needing a new deal next year. Clifton is cost certainty for 2 years and they can fill his role when the time comes.

Adams went this route with Reinhart, went this route with Mittelstadt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them go this route with Joker.

If money weren't an issue (not cap space, cash spent), the ideal route would be sign Joker to a mid term deal, retain on Clifton and move on. But cash spending is an issue and they won't do that.

 

[TehDoak]

My realistic expectation for next year, though I might have gone a little too high on the salary. They will probably run UPL/Levi against all logic and just get draft picks for Joker. Probably won't pay Blueger 2M either. Going to be 8-10M under the cap against next year.

 

[Asymmetric Solution]

Marchessault is a UFA next year. Might fit that 2C/3C tweener gap and partner up with Krebs.

He probably asks for way too much to play in Buffalo though.

 

[MOGlLNY]

4th line plan I'd like to see:
-Nic Dowd / William Carrier
-Re-sign Girgs
-Yakov Trenin

As for trading for a more prototypical 3C if Krebs doesn't show much and a top 6 two way winger, I'll have to think more on that who would realistically be available and willing to come.

 

[Asymmetric Solution]

Benson-TT-Tuch
Peterka-Coz-Quinn
Skinner-Marchessault-Krebs
Greenway-Savoie-XXX

Byram-Dahlin
Power-Sammy
RyJo-Joki
Cliffton

UPL-Levi

Miss by 20?

 

[Dubi Doo]

Sammy is super under-rated playing the right side. His first year he played almost exclusively on the right, and he was great. When he is paired with Dahlin last year, those two were never just on one side, Sammy probably played 30-40% of the time on the right when they would switch on the fly midshift.

I think Power at LHD and Sammy on the right should be something they experiment with, and as others have posted, the metrics from those two playing together has been very promising, albeit a small sample size.

Sammy is the kind of defender we've wanted to pair with Power, but man- I'd be lying if I said Im not slightly concerned that 2/4 of our top-4 had had some serious injury concerns over the years. If Sammy and Byram can be mostly healthy for the year, then the defense is incredibly enticing.

 

[Irie]

I don't disagree with you, but I doubt they are going to want to sign him long term to a market rate contract, especially with Bryam needing a new deal next year. Clifton is cost certainty for 2 years and they can fill his role when the time comes.

Adams went this route with Reinhart, went this route with Mittelstadt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them go this route with Joker.

If money weren't an issue (not cap space, cash spent), the ideal route would be sign Joker to a mid term deal, retain on Clifton and move on. But cash spending is an issue and they won't do that.

Reinhart wasn't going to re-sign. Yes, Adams put himself in that position due to not extending Sam earlier, but if Sam was willing to re-up, he'd likely still be a sabre.

Mitts was moved for a likely more valuable piece. Why Adams was reluctant to extend Casey sooner is a mystery, but he was at least parlayed into positive value that is helping the team now.

Moving Joker makes zero sense unless there is a Pegula imposed internal cap or he is moved to address other roster holes.

I am not saying there absolutely isn't an internal cap, because there has been one recently, but the signs are all pointing to that being a thing of the past.

All three of these situations are vastly different (unless some team offers a good young center for Joker, then it would be similar to the Mitts situation - but that is not realistically going to happen)

 

[TehDoak]

Reinhart wasn't going to re-sign. Yes, Adams put himself in that position due to not extending Sam earlier, but if Sam was willing to re-up, he'd likely still be a sabre.

Mitts was moved for a likely more valuable piece. Why Adams was reluctant to extend Casey sooner is a mystery, but he was at least parlayed into positive value that is helping the team now.

Moving Joker makes zero sense unless there is a Pegula imposed internal cap or he is moved to address other roster holes.

I am not saying there absolutely isn't an internal cap, because there has been one recently, but the signs are all pointing to that being a thing of the past.

All three of these situations are vastly different (unless some team offers a good young center for Joker, then it would be similar to the Mitts situation - but that is not realistically going to happen)

Mittelstadt was 100% moved for budget reasons. Yes they have Peterka/Quinn as RFAs in a year as well, but that was manageable with a rising cap.

Adding a vet D-man and re-signing Mittelstadt puts them at the cap next year. Flippling Mittelstadt for a D-man and promoting from within does not. I know chad isn't a reliable source, but you aren't going to give Joker a long term deal (they aren't with Dahlin/Power already signed and Byram needing a contract next year) means they are going to move them. I don't believe Adams has let a single player go to Arbitration yet (Someone correct me if i am wrong), but it seems that its either give them a massive term deal as well before they hit RFA or send them packing when they have Arb rights. Only one I can think of is Olofsson who they signed for them to go to UFA.

 

[MOGlLNY]

I'd love to keep Henri but it really doesn't make sense to be paying 35-36 million dollars to your defense core when you have Johnson who is clearly very nearly ready. Joki also up for a raise which would put it even above that.

I'd much rather be getting rid of Clifton but I don't think that's going to happen unfortunately.

 

[HaNotsri]

I'd love to keep Henri but it really doesn't make sense to be paying 35-36 million dollars to your defense core when you have Johnson who is clearly very nearly ready. Joki also up for a raise which would put it even above that.

I'd much rather be getting rid of Clifton but I don't think that's going to happen unfortunately.

Samuelsson will not play that many games unless we bring down his minutes. He's essentially cannon fodder deluxe and will always get hurt. We need Jokiharju.

I think we should keep the defense we have or upgrade - not downgrade.

Clifton can be bought out in a crunch.

Adams will likely go with Levi anyway as backup so we won't be spending much on goalies.

 

[Irie]

Mittelstadt was 100% moved for budget reasons. Yes they have Peterka/Quinn as RFAs in a year as well, but that was manageable with a rising cap.

Adding a vet D-man and re-signing Mittelstadt puts them at the cap next year. Flippling Mittelstadt for a D-man and promoting from within does not. I know chad isn't a reliable source, but you aren't going to give Joker a long term deal (they aren't with Dahlin/Power already signed and Byram needing a contract next year) means they are going to move them. I don't believe Adams has let a single player go to Arbitration yet (Someone correct me if i am wrong), but it seems that its either give them a massive term deal as well before they hit RFA or send them packing when they have Arb rights. Only one I can think of is Olofsson who they signed for them to go to UFA.

Mitts was a cap casualty, not a budget casualty. Next year this team likely needs a fair amount of free cap to re-sign Peterka, Quinn, and Levi. UPL has played himself into a hefty raise this season, and bottom six help will never be cheap.

Giving Mitts a 6+ million dollar multi-year contract was always going to cause a major cap headache after Adams unexplainably gave Power 8+ million.

I agree that Joker is the likely odd man out eventually, but I believe he has two more RFA years remaining, so no rush to make a decision on him this off-season unless something comes up forcing Adams to require his cap space elsewhere.

It would not surprise me a bit if he is moved at the next TDL or in the 2025 off-season, but I believe he is still here when training camp opens this Fall.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Samuelsson will not play that many games unless we bring down his minutes. He's essentially cannon fodder deluxe and will always get hurt. We need Jokiharju.

I think we should keep the defense we have or upgrade - not downgrade.

Clifton can be bought out in a crunch.

Adams will likely go with Levi anyway as backup so we won't be spending much on goalies.

I have to think Power, Dahlin, and Byram will all play the bigger minutes. Sammy will be the clear #4 who also gets PK time, but I can see Granato relying heavily on Byram, Dahlin, and Power when it's crunch time. One of the best things about obtaining Byram is he can be another 20 min defenseman if need be (assuming he continues to progress into Dahlin's partner going forward)

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

I feel Canucks will extend Blueger if they do well in playoffs.

 

[HaNotsri]

I have to think Power, Dahlin, and Byram will all play the bigger minutes. Sammy will be the clear #4 who also gets PK time, but I can see Granato relying heavily on Byram, Dahlin, and Power when it's crunch time. One of the best things about obtaining Byram is he can be another 20 min defenseman if need be (assuming he continues to progress into Dahlin's partner going forward)

Yeah I still want Jokiharju as insurance until Johnson takes another stride or two. We finally have both top end talent and depth at a position. We need some kind of strebgth to make the playoffs.

My big headache right now is that Peterka, Skinner and Benson means having some issues on all lines. I love Benson but it's too early for the top line and both Skinner and Peterka are best suited for a complimentary run and gun line.
I would be really sad to see Peterka go but I think it's the right move if we can package him for a good center.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Yeah I still want Jokiharju as insurance until Johnson takes another stride or two. We finally have both top end talent and depth at a position. We need some kind of strebgth to make the playoffs.

My big headache right now is that Peterka, Skinner and Benson means having some issues on all lines. I love Benson but it's too early for the top line and both Skinner and Peterka are best suited for a complimentary run and gun line.
I would be really sad to see Peterka go but I think it's the right move if we can package him for a good center.

I think Peterka is becoming everyone's big trade chip, and that's not really a shot at him. He can become a 40G scorer. His skills are enticing as hell, but Buffalo needs a different skillset in the top-6.

 

[TehDoak]

Mitts was a cap casualty, not a budget casualty. Next year this team likely needs a fair amount of free cap to re-sign Peterka, Quinn, and Levi. UPL has played himself into a hefty raise this season, and bottom six help will never be cheap.

That is a 2025 issue, not a 2024 issue. Quinn has been oft injured. Peterka could struggle next year. Levi could spend all of next year in the AHL. We only have cap problems if every player needs demands big money. So far, the only one that can make a compelling case is Peterka. Quinn needs to stay healthy and productive next year.. Good teams sign their good players and deal with the consequences later. And knowing the cap will be 90M+ in that year, it's likely not nearly as big of an issue as you'd think.

Giving Mitts a 6+ million dollar multi-year contract was always going to cause a major cap headache after Adams unexplainably gave Power 8+ million.

Good teams have cap headaches every year, sometimes self inflicted, sometimes just based on the volume of talent. This would have been mostly self inflicted because of the Power contract.

I agree that Joker is the likely odd man out eventually, but I believe he has two more RFA years remaining, so no rush to make a decision on him this off-season unless something comes up forcing Adams to require his cap space elsewhere.

It would not surprise me a bit if he is moved at the next TDL or in the 2025 off-season, but I believe he is still here when training camp opens this Fall.

I guess we'll see where the team lines up next year. Given the Mittelstadt move and Lance's (and Adams) comments, I don't think i'm out of line in assuming it's another year where we are spending 8-10M under the cap. Sounds like they are going to fill Mittelstadts spot with a cheap bridge deal (Krebs) or a ELC (Savoie/Ostlund/Kulich). I dont think they are going to want to spend the dollars to give Joker the kind of market level deal he'd demand.

We will see this summer, maybe I'm wrong and the Sabres will try to be movers and shakers and spend to the cap. But....I doubt it very much. Mittelstadt for Byram will be Adams's big move and everything else will be moving around deck chairs.

 

[Irie]

That is a 2025 issue, not a 2024 issue. Quinn has been oft injured. Peterka could struggle next year. Levi could spend all of next year in the AHL. We only have cap problems if every player needs demands big money. So far, the only one that can make a compelling case is Peterka. Quinn needs to stay healthy and productive next year.. Good teams sign their good players and deal with the consequences later. And knowing the cap will be 90M+ in that year, it's likely not nearly as big of an issue as you'd think.

Adding Casey at possibly 6-7M and giving UPL his raise and needing to sign 7 more guys is a huge cap problem that requires some forethought. The argument that "good teams don't make cap plans and just sign their players" is a dumb false narrative. Plenty of bad GMs do that and their teams struggle because of cap constraints. Successful teams make preemptive cap moves and plan their future cap roadmap.

Good teams have cap headaches every year, sometimes self inflicted, sometimes just based on the volume of talent. This would have been mostly self inflicted because of the Power contract.

The cap is the great equalizer. Teams with great talent will eventually be unable to afford all that talent under the cap, it doesn't directly correlate in the other direction. Great teams don't have to have cap headaches to be great.

I guess we'll see where the team lines up next year. Given the Mittelstadt move and Lance's (and Adams) comments, I don't think i'm out of line in assuming it's another year where we are spending 8-10M under the cap. Sounds like they are going to fill Mittelstadts spot with a cheap bridge deal (Krebs) or a ELC (Savoie/Ostlund/Kulich).

We will see this summer, maybe I'm wrong and the Sabres will try to be movers and shakers and spend to the cap. But....I doubt it very much. Mittelstadt for Byram will be Adams's big move and everything else will be moving around deck chairs.

I don't think 10M under the cap is even possible unless they move on from all their RFAs (aint happening), and sign only sub million dollar players or fill the roster out with ELCs.

This is just more doom and gloom forecasting without evidence.

If they move out Joker, Krebs or UPL to replace them with cheaper solutions, then I will admit that you were right, and that all of Adams' moves were likely just about saving money for Pegula. But if they re-sign the RFAs, then I think it shows that they are spending money that they could easily avoid this season and the recent moves are more about planning for the cap constraints of 25'.

 

[TehDoak]

Adding Casey at possibly 6-7M and giving UPL his raise and needing to sign 10 more guys is a huge cap problem that requires some forethought. The argument that "good teams don't make cap plans and just sign their players" is a dumb false narrative. Plenty of bad GMs do that and their teams struggle because of cap constraints. Successful teams make preemptive cap moves and plan their future cap roadmap.

It's a trivial excercise to the math on this. If they wanted to improve the blueline and keep Casey, yes, it could have had a cap issue, depending on the cost of the the D improvement. But its very do-able at a 87.5M cap.

The cap is the great equalizer. Teams with great talent will eventually be unable to afford all that talent under the cap, it doesn't directly correlate in the other direction. Great teams don't have to have cap headaches to be great.



I don't think 10M under the cap is even possible unless they move on from all their RFAs (aint happening), and sign only sub million dollar players or fill the roster out with ELCs.

They can easily to get to 10M under the cap. Don't spend on a backup goaile, don't qualify Bryson, Ship out Joker, and fill in your 4th line with cheaper players. I did a cap friendly exercise and was 7.5M+ under the cap with a 2M backup goalie and 2M 4th line center (Blueger)

This is just more doom and gloom forecasting without evidence.

If they move out Joker, Krebs or UPL to replace them with cheaper solutions, then I will admit that you were right, and that all of Adams' moves were likely just about saving money for Pegula. But if they re-sign the RFAs, then I think it shows that they are spending money that they could easily avoid this season and the recent moves are more about planning for the cap constraints of next year.

The evidence of the budget is plain in day in their spending, in their unwillingness to do cap retentions for higher draft picks. Good teams spend over the cap and find loopholes to make it work.

 

[Gabrielor]

1) I think right now that Savioe and even probably Rosen are better hockey players than Kulich, but I still really like Kulich's upside the most. @Chainshot mentioned Palat as a comparable (I know, we loathe comparables), but I kind of think if he develops in the right way that he could be similar to Guentzel. I'm just not sure what Savioe and Rosen become at the NHL level.

2) Honestly, I'm never one to trade top 10-15OA 1st rounders. If there's a deal out there and that's what it takes, then sure, I'm not against it. Just seems like those types of deals are so few and far between.

3) In the post-covid year (2020-21), once Krueger got fired, Casey got put in a top 6 role and flashed down the stretch, scoring 16 points over the last 21 games. That was his age 22yo season (D+4).

The next season he looked like he was ready to break out during the preseason, then his injury derailed his season. Since then, he's been our best passer and most consistent performer (when not having to carry Olofsson's carcass around the ice).

Krebs is currently in his 23yo season (D+5) and I'm not sure he's ever flashed the way Casey did in his D+4 season. He'll get plenty of runway from me, but will he get it from the team?

1. I like all of our prospects, and the order has shifted probably 30 times over the last two years. I've solidified after all this time though that Savoie is the one I see with the highest upside, and personally the most enjoyable to watch. He's the most overused comp since Toews, but I really do see Brayden Point.

2. I've really started on this draft...and I'm not a fan. If there's any year in recent times I'd do it, it's this one. Of course, it has to be for the right target. Ideally a forward who's ready now, ideally in the Cozens-Krebs-Byram age group.

3. I have no charts, no stats, just a belief. Similar to Sam Bennett. He was a joke, bordering on a bust, until he wasn't. I see a lot of Bennett in Krebs.

 

[Irie]

It's a trivial excercise to the math on this. If they wanted to improve the blueline and keep Casey, yes, it could have had a cap issue, depending on the cost of the the D improvement. But its very do-able at a 87.5M cap.

Please list me the 4th line centers that are serviceable that will sign in Buffalo for such a discount.

Unless your model is totally unrealistic, getting this payroll at 10M under the cap is really, really difficult. Adams has to know that if he doesn't try to ice a competitive roster, he will more than likely lose his job and his future will likely entail hanging out on park benches with Tim Murray contemplating where it all went wrong.

The evidence of the budget is plain in day in their spending, in their unwillingness to do cap retentions for higher draft picks. Good teams spend over the cap and find loopholes to make it work.

The compensation for third party retention is at an all time low, so retaining money for late round picks when this team has more prospects than they have spaces for makes no sense.

So Far, Adams has not moved any core players out to avoid paying them. The guys he has moved didn't want to be here. They did move lesser players for cash savings, true, but they have not lost great young players to avoid paying them like Ottawa did for years to fit their internal budget.

Mitts is the only one that you could argue might have been moved for financial reasons, but it was a hockey trade where a more valuable asset was returned, and I strongly believe that it was more future cap related than current financial restrictions.

If Adams was not able to spend money, there is no way he gives Power 8+M. There is no way he rewards Gus and Okposo for being good soldiers with those one year over-pays.

It's true, there was an obvious strategy in place for several years to save Pegula money, but that ended last season.

Think about it. Your position doesn't add up. We will all find out this offseason. If he moves out depth in cost cutting moves, you are right, if he keeps the depth and signs them to short term contracts, it is strategic cap planning (which is what I believe we will see).

 

[TehDoak]

Please list me the 4th line centers that are serviceable that will sign in Buffalo for such a discount.

Unless your model is totally unrealistic, getting this payroll at 10M under the cap is really, really difficult. Adams has to know that if he doesn't try to ice a competitive roster, he will more than likely lose his job and his future will likely entail hanging out on park benches with Tim Murray contemplating where it all went wrong.

This is 7.5M under the cap:

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4983709

Swap Vladar for Levi (saves 1.2M), Replace Girgensons with a ELC player or someone at 1M (saves 500k), and replace Blueger with Savoie (saves 1M)

The only real issue is only carrying 6 D-men, so lets say 9M under the cap is certainly possible. It's not pretty, but do-able.

The compensation for third party retention is at an all time low, so retaining money for late round picks when this team has more prospects than they have spaces for makes no sense.

So Far, Adams has not moved any core players out to avoid paying them. The guys he has moved didn't want to be here. They did move lesser players for cash savings, true, but they have not lost great young players to avoid paying them like Ottawa did for years to fit their internal budget.

Mitts is the only one that you could argue might have been moved for financial reasons, but it was a hockey trade where a more valuable asset was returned, and I strongly believe that it was more future cap related than current financial restrictions.

If Adams was not able to spend money, there is no way he gives Power 8+M. There is no way he rewards Gus and Okposo for being good soldiers with those one year over-pays.

It's true, there was an obvious strategy in place for several years to save Pegula money, but that ended last season.

Think about it. Your position doesn't add up. We will all find out this offseason. If he moves out depth in cost cutting moves, you are right, if he keeps the depth and signs them to short term contracts, it is strategic cap planning (which is what I believe we will see).

I mean, you are correct, this summer is the proof in the pudding. I think we'll see marginal spending and Joker moved out. But, I'd love to be wrong and see ownership re-invest and us be a cap team again.