Roster Thread (2023-2024 Season)

[sabremike]

Plus/Minus is the most awful and useless stat in all of sports yet people still insist on citing it. It's the correlation=causation fallacy in stat form.

 

[StrompTroller]

Jeff Skinner is a -1 this season. He's not outscoring his defensive deficiencies. He's had a positive +/- exactly twice in his career. His rookie season, and last season.

The idea of getting rid of Skinner is more about the culture change of getting rid of the ring-leader of the "forwards who refuse to play a 200ft game", which would allow a coach to establish some accountability.

You can't bench other guys for refusing to play a 200ft game and then give Skinner 1st line and 1st unit PP minutes and expect anyone to take you seriously. It's impossible to establish a winning system and culture with a guy like Skinner getting 20 minutes a night who refuses to play the system.

And we've already seen how he responds to being demoted.

It's sunk cost fallacy to continue on with Skinner. We can flush the next 3 seasons and this entire rebuild down the drain by keeping him around, or we can move on.

edit: Kessel drove offense on the 3rd line for the penguins. Skinner is a passenger, not a driver and he's 1st line or bust.

not even looking for a debate one way or the other here but using your first paragraph response based on plus/minus will and should come with some debate against you.

I'm switzerland here as I agree with most of the rest of what you said.

I also would tend to side on the "if we had an adequate coach" crowd. No coach is gonna turn Skinner into bergeron but maybe with the proper and competent coach we coach unlock a little more in him. Especially considering...ya know..."the vibes" of the room.

 

[BFLO]

Skinner is 3rd on the team in 5v5 goal differential:

View attachment 799565

The 6 short-handed goals he's been on the ice for are responsible for his -1 rating. I'd say take him off the PP but the majority of those short handed goals really weren't his fault, and he also leads the team in PPG by a wide margin.

Do short handed goals against not count towards who wins the game?

Do you think it's a coincidence that Jeff Skinner is tied for most in the league in on-ice PP goals against while he leads our forwards in PP Toi?

 

[chi777]

You could say the same types of things about guys like Phil Kessel and Marian Gaborik. yet they were both acquired as the missing pieces for cup winners.

Getting rid of Skinner wouldn't make us better, we would just score less at even strength. Besides, he's still outscoring his defensive deficiencies, so what's the problem?

View attachment 799509

Ha. That's even worse than I thought. Where can I get these fancy charts? I want to see how Gaborik or Kessel compare. I believe both of those guys were able to produce their own offense on lower lines without having to be gifted the best linemates and the most ice time.

I can assure you that no team in the NHL, now or ever, is going to be trying to land Skinner for their Cup run.

He's not outscoring anything. OV used to outscore his deficiencies. Skinner does not. I suspsect you put Quinn in Skinners spot next season that he produces the same or better than Skinner, while playing a more rounded. The spot then vacated by Quinn can go to one of our high tier prospects or, ideally, a verteran physical two-way player that can play on the 2nd line.

This is a fantasy, mind you. I know full well that Skinner is here for the duration, much to my chagrin. So all the rest is moot.

 

[Chainshot]

Ha. That's even worse than I thought. Where can I get these fancy charts? I want to see how Gaborik or Kessel compare. I believe both of those guys were able to produce their own offense on lower lines without having to be gifted the best linemates and the most ice time.

I can assure you that no team in the NHL, now or ever, is going to be trying to land Skinner for their Cup run.

He's not outscoring anything. OV used to outscore his deficiencies. Skinner does not. I suspsect you put Quinn in Skinners spot next season that he produces the same or better than Skinner, while playing a more rounded. The spot then vacated by Quinn can go to one of our high tier prospects or, ideally, a verteran physical two-way player that can play on the 2nd line.

This is a fantasy, mind you. I know full well that Skinner is here for the duration, much to my chagrin. So all the rest is moot.

Phil in 2017 -

 

[BFLO]

Ha. That's even worse than I thought. Where can I get these fancy charts? I want to see how Gaborik or Kessel compare. I believe both of those guys were able to produce their own offense on lower lines without having to be gifted the best linemates and the most ice time.

I can assure you that no team in the NHL, now or ever, is going to be trying to land Skinner for their Cup run.

He's not outscoring anything. OV used to outscore his deficiencies. Skinner does not. I suspsect you put Quinn in Skinners spot next season that he produces the same or better than Skinner, while playing a more rounded. The spot then vacated by Quinn can go to one of our high tier prospects or, ideally, a verteran physical two-way player that can play on the 2nd line.

This is a fantasy, mind you. I know full well that Skinner is here for the duration, much to my chagrin. So all the rest is moot.

Similar chart to Skinners, until you remember that Kessel was driving even strength offense from the 3rd line. Kessel was also consistently excellent on the PP.

 

[toddkaz]

Its only been a few games but both Levi and UPL have played fantastic since Comrie got waived.

Coincidence? Or is the three goalie carousel a distraction?

Did Adams drop the ball not making a decision last year and carrying it on to the start of the season this year?

 

[Gras]

Its only been a few games but both Levi and UPL have played fantastic since Comrie got waived.

Coincidence? Or is the three goalie carousel a distraction?

Did Adams drop the ball not making a decision last year and carrying it on to the start of the season this year?

They had good games before he was waived so its just coincidence at this point

 

[Ehran]

Its only been a few games but both Levi and UPL have played fantastic since Comrie got waived.

Coincidence? Or is the three goalie carousel a distraction?

Did Adams drop the ball not making a decision last year and carrying it on to the start of the season this year?

The return of injured players and some roster adjustments were probably more of a factor.

 

[toddkaz]

They had good games before he was waived so its just coincidence at this point

Back to back games only allowing 1 goal since Comrie sent down happened before? They have player good games but not back to back at least I don't think?

 

[Irie]

edit: Kessel drove offense on the 3rd line for the penguins. Skinner is a passenger, not a driver and he's 1st line or bust.

Kessel's top icetime linemate on the Pens was Malkin for both cup years and all of his PPG years

Kessel has always been able to create offense on his own, but he never "drove" offense in a sense that he made lesser linemates more productive.

As for Skinner, you were watching different games than I was if you saw him not trying under Kreuger on the 4th line. He was crashing the net, whacking at goalies, getting his teeth kicked in trying to create offense by himself every game. Problem was he was playing with Sobotka (who actually had completely given up caring or trying), or other non-driving players like Sheary, Lazar and Johansson.

Skinner is a goal scorer and a pest. To say that a quote about a player like him not scoring goals being a problem.... is that supposed to be some kind of miraculous epiphany?

He is a flawed player, but he is a useful player *if* used correctly. Most cup teams have a player like Skinner potting goals that are weak on D. Chicago had Kane. Washington has Kusnetzov. The Pens had Kessel in their last two cups, and a 75 year old Sykora in their cup 15 years ago. St. Louis had Tarasenko. Kings had Penner. The list goes on and on.

Is Skinner a great player? no, but if used correctly, he can be a positive value. Buying him out would be 6 years of cap penalty. I think you wait at least one more season before contemplating that (2025) when the team will be desperate for cap and Skinner will likely be trending downward more than he currently is.

 

[Djp]

Chicago also picked up Brain Campbell as a UFA and paid him $7.1m aav x 7. An enormous UFA contract in 2008.

The Kings picked up Scuderi and Willie Mitchell as UFAs. #2 and #3 by ice time for the Kings during their 1st cup run. Scuderi wasn't on the team anymore by the 2nd cup run, but Mitchell was still 3rd in ice time.

Tampa traded for McDonagh when he was 28 years old and had 1 full year left on his contract.

Where's our Campbell, McDonagh, or Scuderi/Mitchell?

It's a net savings of $7.3m in real Pegula dollars. Seems like something they'd consider.

Scuderi and Mitchel were signing they made for when they were ready to try to advance in the playoffs. The were 4 yrs and 2 yrs respectively. not long contracts and not that much of a cap hit.

they also had drafted high from 2003-09. they had a bunch of youth.
made playoffs in 009/10, 10/11. for 10/11 they signed those two Dmen you mention.

3 of the 11/12 cup winning teams were young Dmen.


On chicago 1st cup they had 4 internal drafted Dman, signed Campbell and Sopel

their other moves was Hossa , Huet, and some secondary players.

You dont go out and buy cup teams. you may go out and get 1 missing pieces and a few depth players.

getting quality depth in UFA needs to wait till you appear to be a playoff team on the rise.

Campbell salary was expected. He was the clear D front runner.

You guys really think he is going to get 9m or more after this disaster of a season. He or his agent shot themselves in the foot or he just doesn't want to be in Calgary at all and will goto another team cheaper.

maybe some GM does it.

He's a low 1C/high 2C who should only be signed for 4 years with a cap of $8M or less.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Delete

 

[Djp]

Is Skinner a great player? no, but if used correctly, he can be a positive value. Buying him out would be 6 years of cap penalty. I think you wait at least one more season before contemplating that (2025) when the team will be desperate for cap and Skinner will likely be trending downward more than he currently is.

the only time Id think about buying him out is 2026 because his buy out space could be used to resign Tuck. Id prefer he retire in 2026. 2025 you give Peterka and Quinn bridges to 2027 when Skinner would come off.

2025 cap hit 4,6,2,2
2026 5.33, 1.67

 

[Irie]

the only time Id think about buying him out is 2026 because his buy out space could be used to resign Tuck. Id prefer he retire in 2026. 2025 you give Peterka and Quinn bridges to 2027 when Skinner would come off.

2025 cap hit 4,6,2,2
2026 5.33, 1.67

I agree, but I think 2025 could be an option if his play falls off considerably and that extra 5M is needed to not lose an important player to the cap.

 

[Ehran]

I hate myself that I'm still a fan of this team.

 

[debaser66]

I hate myself that I'm still a fan of this team.

Maybe Pegula pays for our group therapy sessions

 

[toddkaz]

I wonder what a Power contract would look like right now? Probably 4m a season.

 

[MOGlLNY]

Im just so checked out on this group. Cant even imagine what the casuals are like.

What a disappointment.

 

[toddkaz]

 

[Beerz]

Greenway’s name came up on todays Athletic hockey show as a name they were told to look out for Vancouver trying to acquire. They want size up front. He was the first name mentioned of a couple names.

Can't wait to get that 4th rounder

 

[SabresFan26]

I wonder what a Power contract would look like right now? Probably 4m a season.

Bridge deal 2 year 4 million.

Just trying to earn what he was given.

 

[TageGod]

What was with the Center swap last night? He was just talking about continuity, they won twice, and he makes a change.

 

[Ace]

What was with the Center swap last night? He was just talking about continuity, they won twice, and he makes a change.

He has no answers. It’s been clear since the first game of the season he has no ideas left.

 

[Beerz]

What was with the Center swap last night? He was just talking about continuity, they won twice, and he makes a change.

It was off from one shift