Roster Talk: Nearing the 20 game mark

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You're not being serious are you? Brown makes Lucic look like Wayne Gretzky.

i was just looking at the numbers for this season, and brown is good there - no, he is amazing. while lucic, well, he's is just another guy in that department. but i understand it's cap issue.

i love lucic, he belongs to the team, and i wish he will stay, but not for the sake of brown. if i understand the stats correctly, we're doomed without brown.
 
i was just looking at the numbers for this season, and brown is good there - no, he is amazing. while lucic, well, he's is just another guy in that department. but i understand it's cap issue.

i love lucic, he belongs to the team, and i wish he will stay, but not for the sake of brown. if i understand the stats correctly, we're doomed without brown.

What stats are you talking about ?

Because I guarantee its not any of the one's that have to do with Production, or possession, the metrics of winning hockey battles on the ice, and games, in the longer trend.
 
i was just looking at the numbers for this season, and brown is good there - no, he is amazing. while lucic, well, he's is just another guy in that department. but i understand it's cap issue.

i love lucic, he belongs to the team, and i wish he will stay, but not for the sake of brown. if i understand the stats correctly, we're doomed without brown.

You're looking at numbers that are meaningless though. Those shots Dustin Brown generates are harmless. That's why I don't put much weight into some of these numbers. As a team stat it could be useful, but individually, it just shows to me that Dustin Brown has never seen a bad shot. As a performer, his play has reduced him to dead weight.
 
You're looking at numbers that are meaningless though. Those shots Dustin Brown generates are harmless. That's why I don't put much weight into some of these numbers. As a team stat it could be useful, but individually, it just shows to me that Dustin Brown has never seen a bad shot. As a performer, his play has reduced him to dead weight.

Also there are anomaly with those (SAT) stats. Look at Lewis/Kopitar.

Kopitar still remains a possession beast and CF 60% player with low shot generation.

Lewis remains high with Both, would anyone categorize Lewis as a driver of offense, or Driving a line ? Lewis is a fine possession player, but he doesn't drive anything other than that and GA/60(good defense).

There are some stretches where Lewis has higher Shots generated,CF %, than Patrick Kane, would anyone really believe Lewis is better than Patrick Kane ?
 
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Rule of thumb with all Advanced Stats.

They must be applied with context in mind. That is why SV% is a crap stat to judge how good a goalie is without context applied.

It's why +- stat is garbage as well. 9 times of 10, +- gets used without context applied.

Quick's career average SV% is .915, below what some people deem league average of .918/.920. Never mind the fact, that when Quick faces 23+ shots in a game, on average his SV% is around damn near .925 for his career. That is borderline Elite. Last season Quick had 28 games I believe where he faced 25+ shots, his SV% was .932....Yeah.

Context.
 
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What stats are you talking about ?

Because I guarantee its not any of the one's that have to do with Production, or possession, the metrics of winning hockey battles on the ice, and games, in the longer trend.

if you have a better source pls let me know.

for wowy i use: http://hockeyviz.com

for dcorsi: http://www.nullhypothesishockey.com/great-expectations-dcorsi/

brown: yes, it's tricky to interpret it, we had some debate with brad about it and i believe in his arguments that it's mostly about bad luck not transforming into points, and also that it should show soon.

lucic: i'll be glad if someone with more experience explains his stats for wowy and dcorsi. i don't have a definite opinion about it, but also i can't see a big surplus here.
 
it sounds like lewis is in montreal.

also here are lombardi's intelligent and measured comments on rookies making the shift from ahl to nhl in response to a question about mersch. these thoughts are good to take into account when declaring new players or rookies fit or unfit to play in the nhl unilaterally.

ORI: What have you thought of Mersch’s play since the call-up?

DL: People have got to understand, as we’ve seen with all our players, there’s about 12 of them up there that have Stanley Cup rings who came through our system. The process, the learning curve never goes straight up, right? It’s always going to have little peaks. The key is to have it on a steady incline like this [Lombardi indicates an incline with his hands]. And so that’s the next step for him. It’s a huge adjustment, whether it’s Pearson, Toffoli, they all went through it. So the important thing that I think you see is to say, OK, you saw parts of his game that are going to make him an NHL player but … until the game you see here (in Ontario) gets there, it’s a process. So all you’re really looking for, you don’t sit there and go, ‘well, you’ve got to light it up.’ No, no, no. You’re just looking for little signs that what I see here and all the games I watched of him, show me a little and then keep on bringing it along. But if you look at all those kids that came up, it always went like this but there was downs, and if they don’t stay then when they go down they get specific instructions. What happens with a kid now, when he’s up there, you can talk about it, you can watch it on TV and everything else but until that player gets there and really gets a feel like, ‘holy smokes, there’s Sidney Crosby, there’s Malkin.’ That’s an incredible experience. And what will happen for the right ones is, ‘wow, OK. I’m out here with them. I think I can play here but I’ve got some work to do to get to that level.’ It’s kind of the way you’ve got to look at it. So to say ‘this guy’s an NHL player right now,’ you sign your own death warrant. Take it day-to-day. The key is to get them better every day. To start making projections is a waste of time.
 
You're looking at numbers that are meaningless though. Those shots Dustin Brown generates are harmless. That's why I don't put much weight into some of these numbers. As a team stat it could be useful, but individually, it just shows to me that Dustin Brown has never seen a bad shot. As a performer, his play has reduced him to dead weight.

my hockey eye tells me the same, but the stats (wowy!) are saying that his linemates are making a big profit from those shots. i guess it's a part of the system and dustin brown is just leading it, like a playmaker in the broadest sense of the word.
 
if you have a better source pls let me know.

for wowy i use: http://hockeyviz.com

for dcorsi: http://www.nullhypothesishockey.com/great-expectations-dcorsi/

brown: yes, it's tricky to interpret it, we had some debate with brad about it and i believe in his arguments that it's mostly about bad luck not transforming into points, and also that it should show soon.

lucic: i'll be glad if someone with more experience explains his stats for wowy and dcorsi. i don't have a definite opinion about it, but also i can't see a big surplus here.

Using your own sites.

Look at the 5v5 Goals/ShotsA category for Brown, he is on the wrong side of that metric.

Also lately on the wrong side of, 5v5 Shots per/60, basically Brown is being propped up by Shore lately.

Context must be applied here, Shore is driving the Third line in all Metrics, HE IS THAT GOOD.

Brown started the year good, then slowly over the last 15 or so games, Shore has been driving the Third line, especially so, since Lewis went down.
 
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Once Trevor Lewis went down the Bottom six starting bleeding GA/60. That is for a reason.

Lewis is kind of good at Defense.

Brown is still a useful Hockey player, but at this point, he is not driving any line, and is simply an expensive passenger. That can change though.
 
Using your own sites.

Look at the 5v5 Goals/ShotsA category for Brown, he is on the wrong side of that metric.

Also lately on the wrong side 5v5 Shots per/60, basically Brown is being propped up by Shore lately.

Context must be applied here, Shore is driving the Third line in all Metrics, HE IS THAT GOOD.

thx, i'l check those stats. but anyway i had shore in the same league as brown about it, they had a strong click and they are both making the 4th liners a lot better. that's basically my argument for brown: he is very useful in the 3rd line right now, with youngsters coming up or trying to survive. right now brown & shore seem like the only pair that can't be shuffled.
 
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Dwight King has resumed Skating. Will need contact and practices before rejoining lineup.

A conditioning stint with Ontario might serve him well, and hopefully he can do that at a time where they have a busy schedule because he needs to be game tested before they insert him back into the lineup, presumably with Shore and Brown.
 
I think Bozak would be the perfect #3, but I do not see Toronto taking on Brown's deal. Then you toss in Dion on top of that!! I do not see how LA would sweeten the pot enough for Toronto.
Brown's contract maybe the worse in the league other than Clarksons.
AS for the other,
J Stall still has value, Bolland I got yelled at for suggesting (though no one said why other than him being an d-bag), you're dreaming if you think Dl can turn Brown into Kessler...and I hate kessler but he is obviously the better current player, you admit Thornton is a no go. Not even going to touch Getz.

Ok... I'll admit it... Kesler/Getz was just checking for Ducks fans. :naughty:

Brown is owed 21 million dollars of REAL money in the next three seasons.

Think about that folks, 21 MILLION DOLLARS. That has to come out of someones pocket. It's why Richards was so toxic, Richards was due about 16 Million over the next three seasons. The Arizona Coyotes total operating losses last season was around 20 million. THAT is a lot of money.

It is going to take a quite lucrative deal to move Brown in any capacity over the next two seasons.

By Lucrative, I mean for the other teams benefit, not the Kings.

J. Staal is signed for 7 years at 6M per year... checking nhlnumbers/generalfanager it looks like the AAV and actual money are both 6M. So that contract is 18 Million over the next 3 years. 1M per year difference the first 3 years. The thought here was what serviceable players on bad contracts are out there that Brown can be swapped for. Kinda like the Scuderi trade.

thx, i'l check those stats. but anyway i had shore in the same league as brown about it, they had a strong click and they are both making the 4th liners a lot better. that's basically my argument for brown: he is very useful in the 3rd line right now, with youngsters coming up or trying to survive. right now brown & shore seem like the only pair that can't be shuffled.

The problem with Brown is that he hurts offensive production when in the top 6 and so is relegated to the 3rd line. Lucic doesn't totally destroy his line-mates ability to score goals. Ok, I was a little shocked to see Brown with 8-9 assists. Brown has been playing well despite not producing. Having said that Brown can be replaced by any number of wingers the Kings have, all of them cheaper. If his salary could be used for say a center or defender in stead the team is probably better off.

It's probably easier to find a serviceable 3C with a bad contract then a guy on an ELC playoff ready at center.

Now what do we have to add to Brown to get J.Staal....
 
Carolina is rebuilding, they are going to want young/cheap assests for Staal(which they can get). One BIG reason you rebuild, is you unscrew your Cap situation, not add to it's dysfunction.

Carolina is not going to swap Staal (a useful Center) for another bad contract.

In Herby's own Words "No one wants the Kings Trash".
 
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about lucic, some with-or-without-you "advanced" stats (to tell you the truth, it's a very simple output chart, just try to understand the triangles that a player is making).

looch is good! he's doing well with the team, chemistry all around, but on the strange side, carter is underperforming without milan, looch seems like a infusion of fresh blood for carter.

i guess top6 six is fixed with this chart, if it will not change dramatically will see this combo for a long time, lucic & carter together.

source: http://hockeyviz.com/img/player/wowy/1516/L.A/wowy-1516-L.A-lucicmi88-shots.png
 
the abstract of my stats research tonight (thx damacles, it was useful to check those): we have 2 fixed pairs:
- carter & lucic
- brown & shore

those are fixed, for now. otherwise experiment as you wish... it's still a very long season ahead, i hope we'll meet in june.
 
...I was looking at the cap for next year and how to get the upgrades the team needs to work with the cap. Pretty much the choice is between one of Lucic or Brown, then picking up a vet 3C and a D. Lucic is better then Brown, and it isn't even close. The team needs to transfer Brown's salary to the center position. So would could the Kings actually get with Brown? Lets face it there are a lot of replacement options for a 3rd line winger that doesn't score and isn't great at defense...

i'm taking it back. lucic = brown. still not cap related, but the truth is lak needs both. another grey hair on lombardi's head.
 
i'm taking it back. lucic = brown. still not cap related, but the truth is lak needs both. another grey hair on lombardi's head.

If Brown played like Lucic then Lombardi wouldn't have needed to trade for a top 6 forward.

If Brown really is untraceable it's time to think about shipping him to Ontario until the buyout.

Edit: CAR may need to hit the cap floor after trading some of their guys... and a vet cup winning guy could help get the rebuild going in the right direction.
 
I think Bozak would be the perfect #3, but I do not see Toronto taking on Brown's deal. Then you toss in Dion on top of that!! I do not see how LA would sweeten the pot enough for Toronto.
Brown's contract maybe the worse in the league other than Clarksons.
AS for the other,
J Stall still has value, Bolland I got yelled at for suggesting (though no one said why other than him being an d-bag), you're dreaming if you think Dl can turn Brown into Kessler...and I hate kessler but he is obviously the better current player, you admit Thornton is a no go. Not even going to touch Getz.

Yes, obviously he is. Kesler has 11 whole points and a -12. Brown has only 9 points and -4. That 1 more goal and 1 more assist are really huge though.
 
I'd trade Brown 100/100 to keep Lucic. The fact is Brown is now MASSIVELY overpaid for what he produces.
 
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Rule of thumb with all Advanced Stats.

They must be applied with context in mind. That is why SV% is a crap stat to judge how good a goalie is without context applied.

It's why +- stat is garbage as well. 9 times of 10, +- gets used without context applied.

Quick's career average SV% is .915, below what some people deem league average of .918/.920. Never mind the fact, that when Quick faces 23+ shots in a game, on average his SV% is around damn near .925 for his career. That is borderline Elite. Last season Quick had 28 games I believe where he faced 25+ shots, his SV% was .932....Yeah.

Context.

Stats in context... what kind of sorcery is this...
 
If Brown played like Lucic then Lombardi wouldn't have needed to trade for a top 6 forward.

If Brown really is untraceable it's time to think about shipping him to Ontario until the buyout.

Edit: CAR may need to hit the cap floor after trading some of their guys... and a vet cup winning guy could help get the rebuild going in the right direction.

No team in the cap Era has had trouble reaching the floor, there is always UFA you can sign to high dollar, low Year contracts like Florida/EDM did to reach the floor. With the Cap remaining stagnant like it probably will the next two years, the floor is not a problem for any team. Carolina also has to sign guys coming off ELC these next two years.

There is no need to saddle your team with players that have contracts you can't get rid of, to reach a salary floor.

Again, in the words of our great board member Herby, "No one wants the Kings Trash".
 
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I.E. the 3C situation. I've always thought Patrick Berglund on St. Louis had the size and skill to play in that position, but couldn't put it together for some reason. That's one guy that could probably be had for a reasonable price, now that Lehtera has emerged. I dunno, this is what happens when I drink. I start thinking about unorthodox ways to improve the team.
 
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