Roster Speculation 2017-18 Part 3

[brian_griffin]

I don't think a return to form is even good enough. He was a "hope he can put it together one day" guy when we got him. He went the other way. If I get back to square one I still have an overpaid D that I don't want on the ice in big minutes.

Sabres have an opportunity to possibly shed Ennis or Moulson. Losing Bogosian instead is not a better option.

Losing Bogo, then having to replace or upgrade him, while still retaining $4M of Tyler Ennis averaging 12-13 min TOI and $5M of Matt Moulson averaging 11-12 min TOI doesn't seem like the best possible expansion outcome.

A different coach and system will help Bogosian far more than it will help Moulson or Ennis.

Currently, Bogosian slots as the 2nd or 3rd RHD, or maybe moves to left side.

Bogosian played in 56 of 82 games last season, and 22 of the Sabres 33 wins; identical percentages. He averaged about 20:45 TOI in the 53 games he played at least 15 min. Sabres won 11 of the 22 games he played >21:20. I know that's pretty meaningless without usage breakdown (PP, SH, ES, etc.).

Upgrading Bogosian is fine. And Not wanting to pay big money to a bottom-4 d-man is fine. How much cheaper will an upgrade to Bogo be in cap space? $2-2.5M? What teams are making players like that available?

Antipin is on an ELC as a 25-year old with 6 years pro experience. Most here are bullish his transition to smaller ice will be fine and his level of play will be good value. So maybe that takes away Bogo's cap sting...

Serious question: What are the options to solve the second half of the shed-Bogo-then-upgrade problem, i.e., replacing him?

If Bogo is exposed, a handshake deal to re-sign Franson on 7/1 better be in place. Cap savings likely $1.5-$2M. Still will need another depth RHD NHL/AHL tweener, however, and as I said, losing Bogo would be worse than losing Ennis or Moulson.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Tanev's injury history is a big turn off for me and the price that Vancouver wants for a defensive D with a injury history. We would get on average 50 games from him a season, I am sure there are other ways to get a lesser defensive D that can actually play 70 to 82 games for us a season and keep the puck out who will come much cheaper.

 

[DJN21]

Wouldn't we have to expose either Brodin or Tanev in that case?

As I said in the post you quoted one trade would have to happen post expansion...obviously the tanev one as brodin being traded is a choice has the possibility of helping minny. The Canucks aren't really in expansion hell so deal with them after. Expose bogosian and hope he's taken to free that money up.

 

[Jim Bob]

As I said in the post you quoted one trade would have to happen post expansion...obviously the tanev one as brodin being traded is a choice has the possibility of helping minny. The Canucks aren't really in expansion hell so deal with them after. Expose bogosian and hope he's taken to free that money up.

I think Botts would have to trade 8OV to Vegas for them to take Bogosian.

 

[Jame]

Several Minny fans have accepted that trade on the main board. Reinhart foe brodin and tuch that is.

Brodin was absolutely terrible in the post season.

Buffalo fans have grown to overrate him significantly. Between his age/contract and potential availability due to expansion... it make sense, i get it but.... Reinhart for Brodin is insanely poor asset management.

 

[DJN21]

Sabres have an opportunity to possibly shed Ennis or Moulson. Losing Bogosian instead is not a better option.

Losing Bogo, then having to replace or upgrade him, while still retaining $4M of Tyler Ennis averaging 12-13 min TOI and $5M of Matt Moulson averaging 11-12 min TOI doesn't seem like the best possible expansion outcome.

A different coach and system will help Bogosian far more than it will help Moulson or Ennis.

Currently, Bogosian slots as the 2nd or 3rd RHD, or maybe moves to left side.

Bogosian played in 56 of 82 games last season, and 22 of the Sabres 33 wins; identical percentages. He averaged about 20:45 TOI in the 53 games he played at least 15 min. Sabres won 11 of the 22 games he played >21:20. I know that's pretty meaningless without usage breakdown (PP, SH, ES, etc.).

Upgrading Bogosian is fine. And Not wanting to pay big money to a bottom-4 d-man is fine. How much cheaper will an upgrade to Bogo be in cap space? $2-2.5M? What teams are making players like that available?

Antipin is on an ELC as a 25-year old with 6 years pro experience. Most here are bullish his transition to smaller ice will be fine and his level of play will be good value. So maybe that takes away Bogo's cap sting...

Serious question: What are the options to solve the second half of the shed-Bogo-then-upgrade problem, i.e., replacing him?

If Bogo is exposed, a handshake deal to re-sign Franson on 7/1 better be in place. Cap savings likely $1.5-$2M. Still will need another depth RHD NHL/AHL tweener, however, and as I said, losing Bogo would be worse than losing Ennis or Moulson.

Expecting bogo to "bounce back" (not that he has ever been that great or lived up to his draft pedigree) under a new coach is just as big of a crap shoot as saying maybe ennis will bounce back in a new system while being healthier. At least in ennis we knew what we had prior to injuries and terrible coaching.

Plus bogo's contract runs longer so ditching it has value in that regard to. I like bogo better than ennis or Moulson moving forward but still it's not that black and white.

Also let's not discount that moulson still did put up points even if the eye teat of every sabres fan says move on...

 

[Sabre the Win]

Brodin was absolutely terrible in the post season.

Buffalo fans have grown to overrate him significantly. Between his age/contract and potential availability due to expansion... it make sense, i get it but.... Reinhart for Brodin is insanely poor asset management.

Minny fans even know that and thats why they throw in Tuch as well

 

[Jim Bob]

Minny fans even know that and thats why they throw in Tuch as well

Brodin and Tuch is such a great deal for the Wild that almost all their fans can't type SOLD and hit Submit Reply fast enough.

 

[Jame]

Brodin and Tuch is such a great deal for the Wild that almost all their fans can't type SOLD and hit Submit Reply fast enough.

It;s like if some fan base was offering us a sweet deal for Zemgus Girgensons, but was completely unaware of the last 2 years...

 

[Husko]

(Note: I am not advocating that we trade Reinhart, but merely posing a hypothetical.)

Reinhart + 8th overall

for

Tanev + 5th overall

Which team says no?

The Sabres. I love Tanev, but he doesn't have the offensive, point producing, puck moving acumen you'd need to make moving Reinhart worth it.

Kane + 2nd + Bailey/Baptise/Fasching for Tanev?
1st + Bailey/Baptise/Fasching for Tanev?
Nylander + Bailey/Baptise/Fasching for Tanev?

I'd do all of these

 

[Sabre the Win]

Expecting bogo to "bounce back" (not that he has ever been that great or lived up to his draft pedigree) under a new coach is just as big of a crap shoot as saying maybe ennis will bounce back in a new system while being healthier. At least in ennis we knew what we had prior to injuries and terrible coaching.

Plus bogo's contract runs longer so ditching it has value in that regard to. I like bogo better than ennis or Moulson moving forward but still it's not that black and white.

Also let's not discount that moulson still did put up points even if the eye teat of every sabres fan says move on...

Yeah I think Moulson catches a little too much flack around here. I mean his contract is horrible for the production he puts up but he did put up 32 points this season while Ennis and Girgensons put up 29 points combined with more ice time on average than Moulson.

 

[Husko]

Tanev's injury history is a big turn off for me and the price that Vancouver wants for a defensive D with a injury history. We would get on average 50 games from him a season, I am sure there are other ways to get a lesser defensive D that can actually play 70 to 82 games for us a season and keep the puck out who will come much cheaper.

Since the lockout shortened season he's averaged 64 games a season. Not amazing, but not the 50 a season you suggest either.

 

[Husko]

Any chance Vancouver would want Bogosian as part of a Tanev trade?

Kane+Bogosian+pick/prospect?

 

[Sabre the Win]

Since the lockout shortened season he's averaged 64 games a season. Not amazing, but not the 50 a season you suggest either.

my calculation since lockout shortened season he averaged 58.8 games a season so lets say 59 which is 9 off from my estimated quick glance over. Did I miss something?

 

[Husko]

If you want to be technical since lockout shortened season he averaged 58.8 games a season so lets say 59 which is 9 off from my estimated quick glance over.

Maybe my math is off, but 64+70+69+53=256. Divided by 4 gives you 64.

If you want to count the lockout season, we should do it by % of games played, or 256/328 + 38/48 = 294/376, or .792. Which would be 64 games per year.

Before that season, he wasn't an NHL regular.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Maybe my math is off, but 64+70+69+53=256. Divided by 4 gives you 64.

If you want to count the lockout season, we should do it by % of games played, or 256/328 + 38/48 = 294/376, or .792. Which would be 64 games per year.

Before that season, he wasn't an NHL regular.

You're right I counted 2012/13 season where he played for the Chicago Wolves for some of the season.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Brodin was absolutely terrible in the post season.

Buffalo fans have grown to overrate him significantly. Between his age/contract and potential availability due to expansion... it make sense, i get it but.... Reinhart for Brodin is insanely poor asset management.

If we're trading Reinhart for a defenseman (which would be dumb) Brodin and Hanifin's team control make them the only realistic targets. That, or someone much better than the vet names that have been floated.

Trading Reinhart for three years of team control on Tanev would be awful.

 

[DJN21]

If we're trading Reinhart for a defenseman (which would be dumb) Brodin and Hanifin's team control make them the only realistic targets. That, or someone much better than the vet names that have been floated.

Trading Reinhart for three years of team control on Tanev would be awful.

I'm good with hanifan for Reinhart too. No one is suggesting reinhart for tanev.

Ideally you add hanifan and a tanev or brodin...future and present.

I'm a huge tuch fan so his inclusion pushes me the brodin way if hanifan isn't an option.

 

[Jame]

If we're trading Reinhart for a defenseman (which would be dumb) Brodin and Hanifin's team control make them the only realistic targets. That, or someone much better than the vet names that have been floated.

Trading Reinhart for three years of team control on Tanev would be awful.

But Brodin's 4 years is acceptable?

 

[Jame]

I like Brodin. He should definitely be near the top of the list of targets during this expansion shake up.

But no way in hell should we trade Reinhart for him.

 

[Jim Bob]

For me, Tanev makes sense if you can move Bogosian.

The only Reinhart deal that comes close to making sense for me is Reinhart for Hanifin.

Reinhart for Brodin doesn't work for me when you look at how his TOI/G has decreased each of the past two seasons in Minnesota and he was 4th in TOI/G amongst Wild D this season and last season.

In theory, Brodin-Tanev as the DZ start pair would be great. I just don't like the idea of giving up 8OV, Reinhart, and maybe more to get there.

If the trades to get those two were centered around Kane for Tanev and Nylander for Brodin, then sure.

 

[Jame]

For me, Tanev makes sense if you can move Bogosian.

The only Reinhart deal that comes close to making sense for me is Reinhart for Hanifin.

Reinhart for Brodin doesn't work for me when you look at how his TOI/G has decreased each of the past two seasons in Minnesota and he was 4th in TOI/G amongst Wild D this season and last season.

In theory, Brodin-Tanev as the DZ start pair would be great. I just don't like the idea of giving up 8OV, Reinhart, and maybe more to get there.

If the trades to get those two were centered around Kane for Tanev and Nylander for Brodin, then sure.

perfect world.

people will hate this (bogo), but....

Bogo-Risto
Brodin-Tanev
McCabe-Antipin

 

[Jim Bob]

perfect world.

people will hate this (bogo), but....

Bogo-Risto
Brodin-Tanev
McCabe-Antipin

That is better than Gorges-Risto....



If Botts could get there and keep 8OV and Reinhart.

 

[Sabre the Win]

For me, Tanev makes sense if you can move Bogosian.

The only Reinhart deal that comes close to making sense for me is Reinhart for Hanifin.

Reinhart for Brodin doesn't work for me when you look at how his TOI/G has decreased each of the past two seasons in Minnesota and he was 4th in TOI/G amongst Wild D this season and last season.

In theory, Brodin-Tanev as the DZ start pair would be great. I just don't like the idea of giving up 8OV, Reinhart, and maybe more to get there.

If the trades to get those two were centered around Kane for Tanev and Nylander for Brodin, then sure.

Same and yet I would still hate to see Reinhart go but if Reinhart is being traded than it best be for someone close in age and potential like Hanifin.

 

[dkollidas]

I hope there's something to the Kane/Muzzin scenario. Maybe it would have to wait until LA could work out an extension beforehand.

Then I think they throw a 2nd or 3rd to Vegas in order to persuade Vegas to take Ennis instead of Moulson.

Sign a UFA like Del Zotto or Hainsey.

Sign a UFA forward like Parenteau.

Carrier-O'Reilly-Okposo
Girgensons-Eichel-Rodrigues
Parenteau-Reinhart-Baptiste
Foligno-Larsson-Gionta

Muzzin-Ristolainen
McCabe-Antipin
Hainsey/Del Zotto-Bogosian

Lehner
Ullmark