Roster Speculation 2015-16 Pt. III

[zenthusiast]

I misread the hypothetical~

 

[Jame]

My guess is that each team gets X # of balls based on their placement

Whoever wins 1st pick, that teams balls are removed and they pick #2.

Then those teams balls are removed, they pick #3.

So, if you do it the simpliest way, Last place gets 14 balls, 2nd to last gets 13, team in 14th gets 1.

So, 95 balls in total.

So, for example, if the 2nd overall team won the lottery and Buffalo was 5th overall in the draft order

So, 2nd overall has 13 balls in the mix.

For 1st overall, Buffalo would have a 10/95 chance
For 2nd overall, Buffalo would have 10/82 chance

etc

Thats my ASSUMPTION in how it will be done, but, I guess there might be better ways to do it.

They could simply use the number combos they used last lotto over again, and if a team gets drawn twice you simply draw another number.

I would assume the odds don't change at all
Balls aren't removed.
And if the team that won #1, follow that by winning combination for #2... they would just re-draw.

(i was assuming they used the same format of a combination of balls.)

 

[TehDoak]

I would assume the odds don't change at all
Balls aren't removed.
And if the team that won #1, follow that by winning combination for #2... they would just re-draw.

(i was assuming they used the same format of a combination of balls.)

Yup, that's certainly a possibility. I think the lotto ball removal with the team logos on it is a bit more TV friendly, but, I could certainly see them doing that.

 

[hizzoner]

TM should not worry about how other teams might react to offer sheets. Those teams are not about to renounce their right to make such offers on Sabres players if it suits them...A GM has to consider not only his team but his continuing in his job. A risk of an offer sheet 3 or 4 years from now means nothing to a GM trying to hang on to his job. That is NOT where TM is but it might be where a few GMs are in 3 years or so. Still we should make those offers only to players we know are better than what we have and that we have room for them. A young natural goal scorer guaranteed to play top 6? Check. A young top 4 LD? Check. etc...

 

[dotcommunism]

Yup, that's certainly a possibility. I think the lotto ball removal with the team logos on it is a bit more TV friendly, but, I could certainly see them doing that.

It's also not remotely practical. Doing that would require 200 balls at the minimum, given the lottery odds. Also the "balls with the team logo" system would be far easier to manipulate than how it actually works.

There are 14 numbered balls, 4 are drawn (order does not matter) giving 1001 possible drawings. One of those 1001 is an automatic redraw.

With the new system where they draw three picks, they simply do the drawing three times. In the case where one team's combinations are chosen more than once, the second time results in a redraw. In essence, all of a chosen team's combinations are thrown out. Their odds are redistributed, proportionally, amongst the other teams.

The system you propose with last place getting 14 balls, second to last 13 and so on would involve 105 balls, not 95 and would also give the last place team a 13.33...% chance of winning the lottery

 

[SabresGuy*]

Here is how the forward lines might shape up...

Kane Girg Gionta - These guys get to do lots of heavy lifting.
Larsson Grigo Foligno - Grigo and Larsson have shown some chemistry in Roch.
Moulson Eichel Ennis - Lot's of ozone starts for these three.
DeL Shaller McCormick - What's left.

Hodgson is bought out.

Just got my tickets for the NHL Draft - can't wait!

 

[mikemcburn]

Here is how the forward lines might shape up...

Kane Girg Gionta - These guys get to do lots of heavy lifting.
Larsson Grigo Foligno - Grigo and Larsson have shown some chemistry in Roch.
Moulson Eichel Ennis - Lot's of ozone starts for these three.
DeL Shaller McCormick - What's left.

Hodgson is bought out.

Just got my tickets for the NHL Draft - can't wait!

There is so much I'd balk at in this line up... Not the least of which is Gionta anywhere in the top 6 ahead of Ennis or even Moulson (despite that he's got the exact same weaknesses that you'd see Hodgson bought out for, and none of Hodgson's upside).

And Foligno, really? Ahead of a kid like Ennis who actually has some reliable offense to give? Neither are sound defensive players, in fact both pretty much suck defensively, but at least Ennis has real and steady and reliable offense. Emphasis on reliable.

And entirely unproven Grigorenko as the 2C anchor over Larsson? Obviously while neither have proven a thing to get gift-wrapped top 6, it'd be great to see both given solid opportunity to earn in, but even with that the hope in my bones, I'm not seeing Grigorenko getting that 2C spot over Larsson right now.

And you'd shackle Kane to Girgensens as his pivot? Really? I love demi-god myself, but he's not a 1C play maker. 1st ling power winger sure, but he's just not got the play making to be feeding Kane and the two of them combined on the same line are wasted in my (not so) humble opinion. Both are defensively sound, both are power, why not split them up.

And you'd stick poor Eitchel with the obligation to serve his rookie year trying to compensate for the weak defense of Ennis and the terribly incomplete Moulson? So Eitchel is to spend his rookie year doing all the d zone work and then either watching Ennis rush solo into the ozone or Moulson stand around aimlessly, chewing his mouth guard while both Ennis and rookie Eitchel are bounced around....

Obviously you've dumped/bought out proven top 6 producer Hodgson (who, while his defense and physical game is no better than Moulson's, at least has the wicked shot and soft hands that Moulson doesn't have + bonus, he's got 4+ years of youth on Moulson) to make room for guys like Gionta and Folingo in the top 6 - but where's Reinhart in all of this?

And that 4th line that you call "what's left" - Sabres have waaaaay too much depth to be just throwing guys on the 4th as left over thoughts. Better to actually build a real 4 line team than do left overs on the 4th as though it's remotely possible to roll into contention on 3 lines + left overs.

That's only my opinion though. And hey, maybe you'd number the lines differently than is inferred. Regardless though - if the Sabres are giving as much ice time to a guy like Gionta as Kane gets, there's a big problem.

Really, I guess I'm just not seeing how these lines work.

 

[Heraldic]

Back to the offersheets... If Bogosian is able to play efficiently on the left side, would you consider offersheeting Dougie Hamilton with 7 years and 6,7 million? It would cost 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounders.

Bogosian - Hamilton
Zadorov - Risto

Looks pretty good, huh?

 

[BananaSquad]

Dont offer sheet anyone, let these kids grow together. You know eventually we have to pay Eichel, Reinhart, Girgensons, Risto, Kane and Zads lol.

 

[dkollidas]

Grigo. Zadorov, 21st, 2016 1st, hodgson,
For
OEL

This is the type of deal I see Murray doing. Maybe not this exactly, but something to this effect, for a LHD. Goalies can be acquired in FA, trade, etc. quite easily. So many people are worried about the RW, but instead of trying to trade/sign for guys, get a short-term answer (Justin Williams might not be likely, but it'd be nice) to hold down a spot for two seasons, and wait for Baptiste, Bailey, Fashing, and Compher to develop, all of whom are right-handed shots, one of whom will likely pan out as a top-6 forward, and the others can be slotted accordingly.

Zadorov is a fun guy to have, but if you move him for something established it doesn't hurt.
Grigorenko is probably the 5th best center in the organization (Girgensons, Eichel, Reinhart, Larsson).
We've had 16, I mean... SIXTEEN 1st and 2nd round picks in the past four seasons, including this year, so trading some of that depth for elite talent isn't just smart... it's necessary.

Now I know everyone on HF says "no quantity for quality, if you want OEL, start with Reinhart, etc. etc." but in reality when elite players are dealt, it's usually for a big package. And there are a lot of teams without quality depth in their organization that would love to have a chance at all that prospective talent.

 

[hizzoner]

I do not mind trades for stars--it is exciting. But I hate trading without knowing the value of what I am giving up. When it is 3 players who could be first line players my knees knock. I believe Zads has the potential to be a first pairing LD for 15 years--he can skate, shoot, clear the crease, win on the wall and could have played junior this year. Is that so bad? #21 this year should be a regular in the nhl with any proper drafting. Our number one next year includes 3 bonus draws for number 1, 2, and 3 overall in the draft. Maybe I do not see enough of OEL but I never thought he was Bobby Orr. Some other year when we have properly assessed what we have then this kind of swinging for the fences makes more sense to me. Of course that is why I did what I did as a professional and not something else....

 

[SabresGuy*]

There is so much I'd balk at in this line up... Not the least of which is Gionta anywhere in the top 6 ahead of Ennis or even Moulson (despite that he's got the exact same weaknesses that you'd see Hodgson bought out for, and none of Hodgson's upside).

And Foligno, really? Ahead of a kid like Ennis who actually has some reliable offense to give? Neither are sound defensive players, in fact both pretty much suck defensively, but at least Ennis has real and steady and reliable offense. Emphasis on reliable.

And entirely unproven Grigorenko as the 2C anchor over Larsson? Obviously while neither have proven a thing to get gift-wrapped top 6, it'd be great to see both given solid opportunity to earn in, but even with that the hope in my bones, I'm not seeing Grigorenko getting that 2C spot over Larsson right now.

And you'd shackle Kane to Girgensens as his pivot? Really? I love demi-god myself, but he's not a 1C play maker. 1st ling power winger sure, but he's just not got the play making to be feeding Kane and the two of them combined on the same line are wasted in my (not so) humble opinion. Both are defensively sound, both are power, why not split them up.

And you'd stick poor Eitchel with the obligation to serve his rookie year trying to compensate for the weak defense of Ennis and the terribly incomplete Moulson? So Eitchel is to spend his rookie year doing all the d zone work and then either watching Ennis rush solo into the ozone or Moulson stand around aimlessly, chewing his mouth guard while both Ennis and rookie Eitchel are bounced around....

Obviously you've dumped/bought out proven top 6 producer Hodgson (who, while his defense and physical game is no better than Moulson's, at least has the wicked shot and soft hands that Moulson doesn't have + bonus, he's got 4+ years of youth on Moulson) to make room for guys like Gionta and Folingo in the top 6 - but where's Reinhart in all of this?

And that 4th line that you call "what's left" - Sabres have waaaaay too much depth to be just throwing guys on the 4th as left over thoughts. Better to actually build a real 4 line team than do left overs on the 4th as though it's remotely possible to roll into contention on 3 lines + left overs.

That's only my opinion though. And hey, maybe you'd number the lines differently than is inferred. Regardless though - if the Sabres are giving as much ice time to a guy like Gionta as Kane gets, there's a big problem.

Really, I guess I'm just not seeing how these lines work.

McBurn - Thank you for the feedback. Let me try to respond to a few of your points.

I guess the first thing...I don't necessarily view things as Line 1, Line 2, Line 3 type deal. I want to have three balanced lines (ice time wise, not skill wise). There are some nights where the Eichel line plays 18+ mins if they are "on". The Kane line probably takes critical d zone starts, closes out close games, etc.

On Eichel, I think you have to stick the kid with offensively skilled guys. Ennis fits the bill and Moulson, with all his warts, is capable of finishing down low. You mention a concern about this line getting pushed around. If there is any legit argument against my construct, this is it. My hope is team toughness is high this upcoming year.

The Larsson line - I am not sure on who plays what position. I would gladly shift Larsson to center and Foligno to the left side. But I would give the trio a try. I believe Larsson played a bit of left wing in Roch with Grigo and found success. Why not give it a try up here?

Kane and Girgs need to step up and control play this year if we are going to have any success. I like the idea of forming a line that can dictate play. You mention splitting them up, but why not try putting your eggs into one basket? We need to possess the puck more this year. Also, Girgs is currently our best center. Not sure what's wrong with putting our best center and wing together.

Unless he really shows up in camp, I think its wise to start Rein in Roch. Let him earn a spot. Same with Zadorov.

Hodgson is a buyout candidate for me. I don't think he fits the mold of the team we should be trying to build. I like players that can dictate play. IF he can put it together, Hodgson is more of a complementary piece on a scoring line. I haven't given up hope on him as a productive NHL'er, but even if things work out for him, he isn't the type of guy I want around.

Given the nature of our roster, this is still very much a puzzle. You mention that Zemgus isnt a "1 C play maker" - well of course not. Our roster currently doesn't have that player. We hope / think Eichel is that guy, but even the most optimistic fan should realize it will take a few years for him. Same with Grigo (if you are on that train) or Rein.

The truth is WE DON'T HAVE DEPTH. We are the worst team in hockey. We have a collection of guys we think can play, with only a few proven guys. It's hard to argue otherwise. History tells us that these guys are more likely to bust or become plug NHLer's. But I agree, when the dust settles in a few years, I like the idea of having a fourth line that can play.

My hope for this year is that a few more players show they are capable NHL players, similar to what Larsson did at the end of the season or Risto. We still have plenty of prospects / suspects. Some will bust, some will excel. We will identify more keepers this year. Hopefully guys like Zadorov, Grigo step up. I am not even assuming Rein has a meaningful impact. He will get half the season in the show, but he isnt going to light the world on fire this year.

I am interested to hear your lines. Thanks.

 

[Jame]

Sabres and Kaleta opening extension talks.

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/...lks-between-sabres-kaleta-expected-this-week/

 

[Beerz]

Good for Patty.

 

[TehDoak]

Sabres and Kaleta opening extension talks.

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/...lks-between-sabres-kaleta-expected-this-week/

Nothing more than a 1 year deal plz. Not much tread left on that tire.

 

[Moskau]

Give him 3 shifts on the penalty kill before he blocks a shot with his neck for some reason and misses 70 games.

 

[joshjull]

Nothing more than a 1 year deal plz. Not much tread left on that tire.

Why would it matter if it was 1, 2 or 3 years? He won't make much above league minimum and certainly not more than the cap cut off of 925K . So if he is waived and sent to the minors at any point. he won't count against the cap.

 

[Zman5778]

Why would it matter if it was 1, 2 or 3 years? He won't make much above league minimum and certainly not more than the cap cut off of 925K . So if he is waived and sent to the minors at any point. he won't count against the cap.

I dunno. I could see him getting $2.5 million over 2 years for a $1.25m AAV.

 

[joshjull]

I dunno. I could see him getting $2.5 million over 2 years for a $1.25m AAV.

I was thinking he has no leverage thus the sub 1mil salary. But you may be right he could get that. So then it would be peanuts on the cap (325k) if he is sent down. Still not really an issue going forward. (not that you were saying it was).

 

[sabrebuild]

McBurn - Thank you for the feedback. Let me try to respond to a few of your points.

I guess the first thing...I don't necessarily view things as Line 1, Line 2, Line 3 type deal. I want to have three balanced lines (ice time wise, not skill wise). There are some nights where the Eichel line plays 18+ mins if they are "on". The Kane line probably takes critical d zone starts, closes out close games, etc.

On Eichel, I think you have to stick the kid with offensively skilled guys. Ennis fits the bill and Moulson, with all his warts, is capable of finishing down low. You mention a concern about this line getting pushed around. If there is any legit argument against my construct, this is it. My hope is team toughness is high this upcoming year.

The Larsson line - I am not sure on who plays what position. I would gladly shift Larsson to center and Foligno to the left side. But I would give the trio a try. I believe Larsson played a bit of left wing in Roch with Grigo and found success. Why not give it a try up here?

Kane and Girgs need to step up and control play this year if we are going to have any success. I like the idea of forming a line that can dictate play. You mention splitting them up, but why not try putting your eggs into one basket? We need to possess the puck more this year. Also, Girgs is currently our best center. Not sure what's wrong with putting our best center and wing together.

Unless he really shows up in camp, I think its wise to start Rein in Roch. Let him earn a spot. Same with Zadorov.

Hodgson is a buyout candidate for me. I don't think he fits the mold of the team we should be trying to build. I like players that can dictate play. IF he can put it together, Hodgson is more of a complementary piece on a scoring line. I haven't given up hope on him as a productive NHL'er, but even if things work out for him, he isn't the type of guy I want around.

Given the nature of our roster, this is still very much a puzzle. You mention that Zemgus isnt a "1 C play maker" - well of course not. Our roster currently doesn't have that player. We hope / think Eichel is that guy, but even the most optimistic fan should realize it will take a few years for him. Same with Grigo (if you are on that train) or Rein.

The truth is WE DON'T HAVE DEPTH. We are the worst team in hockey. We have a collection of guys we think can play, with only a few proven guys. It's hard to argue otherwise. History tells us that these guys are more likely to bust or become plug NHLer's. But I agree, when the dust settles in a few years, I like the idea of having a fourth line that can play.

My hope for this year is that a few more players show they are capable NHL players, similar to what Larsson did at the end of the season or Risto. We still have plenty of prospects / suspects. Some will bust, some will excel. We will identify more keepers this year. Hopefully guys like Zadorov, Grigo step up. I am not even assuming Rein has a meaningful impact. He will get half the season in the show, but he isnt going to light the world on fire this year.

I am interested to hear your lines. Thanks.

In regard only to the Eichel development. I think it's extremely pessimistic to think it will take a few years for Eichel to be a 1c, however you label it. I think it's more likely he is a Top thirty center in the league by Xmas time than it takes him a few years.

 

[Zman5778]

I was thinking he has no leverage thus the sub 1mil salary. But you may be right he could get that. So then it would be peanuts on the cap (325k) if he is sent down. Still not really an issue going forward. (not that you were saying it was).

I could see Murray/Black/Pegula being like "You're a good soldier, we have the cap room -- have a little extra money for being a good solider....but be prepared to be in Rochester"

 

[joshjull]

I could see Murray/Black/Pegula being like "You're a good soldier, we have the cap room -- have a little extra money for being a good solider....but be prepared to be in Rochester"

Are you talking for next season or beyond? Because if he is brought back, I doubt they are giving him 1.25mil to go to Rochester, good soldier or not.

 

[Zman5778]

Are you talking for next season or beyond? Because if he is brought back, I doubt they are giving him 1.25mil to go to Rochester, good soldier or not.

Beyond, most likely. If we re-sign him, he's probably in Buffalo all this year.

 

[joshjull]

McBurn - Thank you for the feedback. Let me try to respond to a few of your points.

I guess the first thing...I don't necessarily view things as Line 1, Line 2, Line 3 type deal. I want to have three balanced lines (ice time wise, not skill wise). There are some nights where the Eichel line plays 18+ mins if they are "on". The Kane line probably takes critical d zone starts, closes out close games, etc.

I like your thinking on this in terms of rolling 3 roughly equal lines. I also agree a combo a Kane/Girgs could do the heavy lifting defensively.

On Eichel, I think you have to stick the kid with offensively skilled guys. Ennis fits the bill and Moulson, with all his warts, is capable of finishing down low. You mention a concern about this line getting pushed around. If there is any legit argument against my construct, this is it. My hope is team toughness is high this upcoming year.

Like this idea as well. I've been imagining Eichel between Moulson/Ennis myself.

The Larsson line - I am not sure on who plays what position. I would gladly shift Larsson to center and Foligno to the left side. But I would give the trio a try. I believe Larsson played a bit of left wing in Roch with Grigo and found success. Why not give it a try up here?

A few issues with this line. FIrst larsson should be the center because he is the better option. My other issue is the lack of speed on this line.

Kane and Girgs need to step up and control play this year if we are going to have any success. I like the idea of forming a line that can dictate play. You mention splitting them up, but why not try putting your eggs into one basket? We need to possess the puck more this year. Also, Girgs is currently our best center. Not sure what's wrong with putting our best center and wing together.

I like the idea of them together because Kane spends a lot of his time with the puck on his stick. Having a line mate like that is something Girgs got used to last season with Ennis. He not only got used to it but learned to play well off of a line mate like that. They (Kane/Girgs) both also have great speed and play a hard 200ft game.

Unless he really shows up in camp, I think its wise to start Rein in Roch. Let him earn a spot. Same with Zadorov.

I'm curious why you don't have Grigs with these two trying to prove he belongs on the roster. He has yet to do enough to warrant being a lock on the roster let alone centering one of the top 3 lines.

Hodgson is a buyout candidate for me. I don't think he fits the mold of the team we should be trying to build. I like players that can dictate play. IF he can put it together, Hodgson is more of a complementary piece on a scoring line. I haven't given up hope on him as a productive NHL'er, but even if things work out for him, he isn't the type of guy I want around.

Not sure what makes the most sense with Hodgson and I agree he may not fit the overall mold of the team Murray is building. But I'm not a fan of wasting cap space for 8 years just to get rid of him with a buyout. I'd rather see an attempt to rehabilitate him or trade him.

Given the nature of our roster, this is still very much a puzzle. You mention that Zemgus isnt a "1 C play maker" - well of course not. Our roster currently doesn't have that player. We hope / think Eichel is that guy, but even the most optimistic fan should realize it will take a few years for him. Same with Grigo (if you are on that train) or Rein.

Eichel will be that guy. But I agree that it likely won't happen this year. Not really sure how Grigs got lumped into this group (Eichel/Reinhart). His upside is not on the same level of those two.

The truth is WE DON'T HAVE DEPTH. We are the worst team in hockey. We have a collection of guys we think can play, with only a few proven guys. It's hard to argue otherwise. History tells us that these guys are more likely to bust or become plug NHLer's. But I agree, when the dust settles in a few years, I like the idea of having a fourth line that can play.

The truth is WE DO HAVE DEPTH or more will likely be added. Its just mostly unproven depth as opposed to last year when it was proven non-NHL depth. We are also NOT the worst team in hockey any more. That team stopped existing at the end of last season. Not sure where we are in the league until the roster is rounded out.

My hope for this year is that a few more players show they are capable NHL players, similar to what Larsson did at the end of the season or Risto. We still have plenty of prospects / suspects. Some will bust, some will excel. We will identify more keepers this year. Hopefully guys like Zadorov, Grigo step up. I am not even assuming Rein has a meaningful impact. He will get half the season in the show, but he isnt going to light the world on fire this year.

I am interested to hear your lines. Thanks.

I know you asked McBurn but I will give you my lines to the point I have them. I don't really have set lines in my mind yet but combos I'd like together Such as………..


Kane/Girgs/AAA
Mouslon/BBB/Ennis
Foligno/CCC/Gionta
Des/DDD/Kaleta

In House...
Options for AAA --> Eichel, Larsson, Hodgson
Options for BBB --> Eichel, Larsson
Options for CCC --> Larsson, Reinhart, Grigs and Hodgson
Options for DDD ---> McCormick, Schaller




Obviously options can be found for 1 possibly even 2 of those spots via trade and /or free agency or maybe even an offersheet. The dream add being ROR.


EDIT: sorry for chopping up your post but its easier for me to respond this way.

 

[Zman5778]

Kane/Girgs/AAA
Mouslon/BBB/Ennis
Foligno/CCC/Gionta
Des/DDD/Kaleta

In House

Options for AAA --> Eichel, Larsson

Options for BBB --> Eichel, Larsson

Options for CCC --> Larsson, Reinhart and Grigs

Options for DDD ---> McCormick, Schaller

Personally, I'd have Reinhart as an option for AAA as well. That might end up being one of the best 2-way lines at the end of next year if allowed to grow together.