Roster Speculation 2015-16 Pt. III

[Sabretip]

The general concept of signing someone to an offer sheet in hopes of acquiring a young, proven NHLer in exchange for draft picks that may or may not develop into varying levels of NHL players is great. However in reality we are going to have a number of RFAs over the next few years and if one or two of them delay signing an extension then we may regret opening Pandora's Box by offer-sheeting someone this off-season.

That's how Regier thought - more afraid of the possible repercussions around the league of his actions rather than confident of the benefits to his own roster. I love that Murray is ignoring who gets annoyed or what other GMs think of his actions.

 

[Zip15]

People seem to overlook Silfverberg, a player Tim Murray drafted in Ottawa and who has shown with his playoff surge that he has the two-way, "heavy" game Murray likes. His size, age and skill should make him just as appealing as those other options listed.

Just imagine the irony if:

- Tim Murray signs one of Bob Murray's players (Silfverberg) to an offer sheet
- Tim Murray trades for one of Bryan Murray's players (Lehner)
- Tim Murray hires Terry Murray to coach Rochester or sees him get hired as one of Bylsma's assistants.

Silfverberg is overlooked because it would take 1st and 3rd round compensation to have a chance at him, and I don't see Tim risking that on a nice, but not great player like Silf. Further, Anaheim likely matches anything within relative reason. They have no cap issues going into next season, and they're not going to let an important player walk for futures when they should be a Cup contender next season.

 

[Zip15]

Under no circumstances am I moving the 2016 1st be it a trade or an offer sheet.Even in a deal for a Tarasenko or OEL caliber player.

Not only is the draft in Buffalo but there are prospects available who have ceilings as high or even higher then whoever we acquire.And even if we do acquire another 1st it would almost assuredly be a later one and not worth moving ours when the draft is in our building.But the most important reason is the most obvious....we just had back to back last place finishes and picked 2nd overall twice in a row.Even with a top 3 lottery in place we could very well pick 4th or higher if the season doesn't go our way.We cannot take the chance of moving our 2016 1st and have it ending up to be Auston Matthews.Thats a Tyler Seguin Toronto situation waiting to happen.You don't think Leaf Fans are still visibly sick knowing that instead of Kessel they could have Seguin and Hamilton?Hell,I think Hamilton alone is worth more then Kessel let alone Seguin who is already a proven ppg franchise player at the ripe age of 23.

Toronto got a one-way goal-scoring winger. Getting OEL is getting one of the best defensemen in the NHL. For a guy who so slavishly adheres to counting numbers, I would've thought you'd be gaga for OEL's 23 goals--hell, OEL's got 38 goals the last two seasons; Ennis has 41! If the Sabres got OEL, Murray would push it more in UFA and turn this into a team that should be close to the playoffs next year.

You're criminally underrating OEL.

 

[RocSabres]

I'd much rather hang on to our 2016 1st. My hope and realistic scenario for next season is that the Sabres improve but most likely still fall a good amount short of the playoffs. With the new lottery system in place the Sabres have decent odds of getting a top 3 pick and with that comes the possibility of drafting Jakob Chychrun. Boom #1 LHD is solved. We get a bonafided prospect who has the potential to be a top Dman in the league in a few years. Just imagine a Chychrun - Risto pairing that's an elite top d pairing in this league.

 

[Husko]

The list of players I'd trade our 2016 pick for is short.

OEL is unquestionably on that list.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Toronto got a one-way goal-scoring winger. Getting OEL is getting one of the best defensemen in the NHL. For a guy who so slavishly adheres to counting numbers, I would've thought you'd be gaga for OEL's 23 goals--hell, OEL's got 38 goals the last two seasons; Ennis has 41! If the Sabres got OEL, Murray would push it more in UFA and turn this into a team that should be close to the playoffs next year.

You're criminally underrating OEL.

Will Arizona trade OEL straight up for our 2016 1st?No?That's all I need to hear.You could try a lot harder then try and resort to such a petty generalization that all I care about is goals.And at the time, Toronto got a player who just scored 36 goals as a 21 year old who also put up a PPG in the post season.Yes yes we all know Kessel is a favorite on HF as a whipping boy but at the time he was as much heralded as OEL is.And while Toronto was coming off a season where they picked 7th, they definitely thought they would trend upwards not backwards.They were thinking the firsts they gave up would be in the 8-12 range in 2010 and in the early-mid teens in 2011, and not #2 and then #9 overall.

But that's exactly my point, Toronto picked 5th and 7th the two years before signing the OS and then picked 2nd and 9th.Where will the Sabres likely pick in 2016 and 2017 after picking #2 the last two years to go with back to back 30th place finishes?Even with adding OEL,Jack Eichel,Evander Kane and Sam Reinhart this year and next they could still be picking bottom 5 even with the new top 3 lottery.Sure, unless our 1st became top 3 then of course it's worth trading that pick for OEL.But Arizona would demand far more then that.And I am not moving a Reinhart and Zadorov along with that first to add OEL.

Arizona would have no incentive to trade OEL to us if the centerpiece of the deal is the 2016 1st unless they were almost sure that it would end up a top 5 pick.And if it did then why would that be a trade worth doing?If that pick does end up top 3 then that's a trade that would be regrettable, even with a young elite dman coming back.

An 18 year old Matthews,Puljujarvi or Chychrun on an ELC along with Reinhart or Zadorov and the other pieces of the hypothetical trade will be worth more then an OEL on a mega deal.You know very well that if our players develop to what we think they will then you know as we are competing for cups our cap space will be very important along with the necessity for a cup contender having top level production coming from young players on an ELC.In fact you were the very poster who explained why having a cup contender with players on an ELC is essential.

I have no idea if you are just assuming that I don't think OEL is a top player (he is and right now is a top 10 dman) but for the price it would take and the risk that our 2016 first is a top 3 pick in a draft that has 3 superstar prospects in it is too much of a risk for me.I'd much rather add an 18 year old Cychrun making peanuts and having his rights for a guaranteed seven years along with keeping the other pieces we would need to make that trade then add OEL at 24 who makes $5.5 mil with 4 years left on his deal, especially since for half of the remaining time on his contract we will still be a bottom 10 team.By the time we are contending will be the time OEL deal runs out and then you will have to be prepared to pay $8+ mil a season.Nah.

 

[Heraldic]

About the offersheet...

If TM wants to be a total *********, he would give two offersheets simultaneously. First he would offersheet Saad with 2 years deal with cap hit of 5,5 (the amount that compensation is 1st and 3rd) and the last year would be over 6 million in salary (maximizing the QO for Saad).

After that he should give 2,5 million caphit, 3 three years deal to Kruger. Chicago would not match both of them, and the price would be reasonable (1st, 2nd and 3rd).

 

[Reddawg]

About the offersheet...

If TM wants to be a total *********, he would give two offersheets simultaneously. First he would offersheet Saad with 2 years deal with cap hit of 5,5 (the amount that compensation is 1st and 3rd) and the last year would be over 6 million in salary (maximizing the QO for Saad).

After that he should give 2,5 million caphit, 3 three years deal to Kruger. Chicago would not match both of them, and the price would be reasonable (1st, 2nd and 3rd).

I'm pretty sure you can't do that...if Chicago declined to match both offer sheets then we'd be on the hook for our 2016 picks twice.

 

[Heraldic]

I'm pretty sure you can't do that...if Chicago declined to match both offer sheets then we'd be on the hook for our 2016 picks twice.

How so?

Saad's offersheet takes 1st and 3rd and the Kruger's 2nd.

 

[Reddawg]

How so?

Saad's offersheet takes 1st and 3rd and the Kruger's 2nd.

Sorry, I misread your post...the way I read it the compensation for Kruger would involve the 1st and 3rd picks as well, but obviously that doesn't make any sense. That's what I get for trying to work and chat at the same time.

 

[Kublakhan]

you never know GMTM just said today pissing people off in the consideration of offer-sheets does not even enter in his decision at all..

 

[gallagt01]

I have a feeling Murray won't seriously entertain the idea of tendering an offersheet until after next season.

 

[Bps21*]

If we I prove an incredible 30 points next season we'd still be drafting top 7 or so with 3 lottery spots. It's just not worth doing. We had our bottom out years. Next year is the beginning of the turnaround. They give you a really high pick after that season too. Play the kids properly and don't worry about the results next year. But down the line when you get another stud D or wing for Eichel or Reinhart for the next decade handed to you...you just smile and continue to improve. Wins come when they come. The top picks they just give to you.

With Sidney Crosby Pitt drafted high again. With Stamkos so did Tampa. And neither of those teams was as far down as we are starting our climb from. Intentional or not.

 

[Reddawg]

If we I prove an incredible 30 points next season we'd still be drafting top 7 or so with 3 lottery spots. It's just not worth doing. We had our bottom out years. Next year is the beginning of the turnaround. They give you a really high pick after that season too. Play the kids properly and don't worry about the results next year. But down the line when you get another stud D or wing for Eichel or Reinhart for the next decade handed to you...you just smile and continue to improve. Wins come when they come. The top picks they just give to you.

With Sidney Crosby Pitt drafted high again. With Stamkos so did Tampa. And neither of those teams was as far down as we are starting our climb from. Intentional or not.

Excellent points made. I plan on laughing my ass off when we make every effort to win every game possible and end up winning the lottery for #1 overall unexpectedly.

 

[haseoke39]

The list of players I'd trade our 2016 pick for is short.

OEL is unquestionably on that list.

Ditto, add tarasenko. Not saad.

 

[TehDoak]

Players you pay 2016 1st for:

Lindholm
Hamilton
Ekman-Larsson
Patrick Kane
Jonathan Toews
Landeskog
Johansen
Seguin
McDavid
RNH
Hall
Ekblad
Larkin
Brodin
Weber
Josi
Jones
Price
Subban
Tavares
Karlsson
Giroux
Crosby
Malkin
Tarasenko
Hedman
Stamkos
Backstrom
Ovechkin


I probably missed a few, but its a relative short list.

 

[Zip15]

About the offersheet...

If TM wants to be a total *********, he would give two offersheets simultaneously. First he would offersheet Saad with 2 years deal with cap hit of 5,5 (the amount that compensation is 1st and 3rd) and the last year would be over 6 million in salary (maximizing the QO for Saad).

After that he should give 2,5 million caphit, 3 three years deal to Kruger. Chicago would not match both of them, and the price would be reasonable (1st, 2nd and 3rd).

Travis Yost suggested this a couple months back on WGR. The only difference was that he predicted Murray would do it to LA, and Toffoli and Martin Jones would be the simultaneous targets.

 

[zenthusiast]

iirc there's some restriction against having multiple balls in the air like that if they overlap in potential cost

 

[Djp]

iirc there's some restriction against having multiple balls in the air like that if they overlap in potential cost

but if you do an offersheet where compensation is a 1st and 3rd in one and a 2nd in the other then there is no overlap.

 

[Sabretip]

Silfverberg is overlooked because it would take 1st and 3rd round compensation to have a chance at him, and I don't see Tim risking that on a nice, but not great player like Silf.

Wouldn't that be true for Toffoli or Saad as well? I thought the compensation is tied to the salary amount offered....

 

[joshjull]

With all of the talk about our 2016 first does anyone know how the odds change after the first overall pick is drawn?

 

[Crazy Tasty]

iirc there's some restriction against having multiple balls in the air like that if they overlap in potential cost

Correct.

 

[Zip15]

Wouldn't that be true for Toffoli or Saad as well? I thought the compensation is tied to the salary amount offered....

I think Toffoli and Saad are better players than Silf and would warrant such compensation--assuming Murray plans to be more active in UFA if he landed one of them, thereby pushing the 1st round pick out of the danger zone. More importantly, though, those teams have far more cap difficulties than Anaheim. I don't see the Ducks saying, "shucks, the better value may be to take the picks, let's do that and actively hurt our roster for next season when we're a Cup contender."

But, again, I think the chances that the Kings and Hawks don't match on those two guys is almost nil.

 

[Zip15]

With all of the talk about our 2016 first does anyone know how the odds change after the first overall pick is drawn?

If it's like the NBA--and it sounds like that will be the model--each team has a certain percentage for the #1 overall pick. After that is drawn, the odds change depending on which team won the 1st overall pick. For instance, if Buffalo is the 4th worst team next season and the worst overall team gets the #1 pick, Buffalo's chances at 2 would rise dramatically. On the other hand, if the 14th worst team wins the lottery, Buffalo's odds would improve only marginally with a team having such bad odds being out of the mix at that point.

 

[TehDoak]

With all of the talk about our 2016 first does anyone know how the odds change after the first overall pick is drawn?

My guess is that each team gets X # of balls based on their placement

Whoever wins 1st pick, that teams balls are removed and they pick #2.

Then those teams balls are removed, they pick #3.

So, if you do it the simpliest way, Last place gets 14 balls, 2nd to last gets 13, team in 14th gets 1.

So, 95 balls in total.

So, for example, if the 2nd overall team won the lottery and Buffalo was 5th overall in the draft order

So, 2nd overall has 13 balls in the mix.

For 1st overall, Buffalo would have a 10/95 chance
For 2nd overall, Buffalo would have 10/82 chance

etc

Thats my ASSUMPTION in how it will be done, but, I guess there might be better ways to do it.

They could simply use the number combos they used last lotto over again, and if a team gets drawn twice you simply draw another number.