Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

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Nassau Revisited

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Jun 16, 2017
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These contracts like Lee and Pageau are buyout opportunties also, isles paid them up front so cash owed to them is less. It’s factor in trading these guys and also buying them out. Lee at 4 or 5 million would fit on a contender. He can still play on PP and is good in front of net and on a team who wants to play heavy game like Kings or Vegas out west. I’d suspect isles could move him a lot easier than people believe especially if you’re looking at it as a cap space creator only and not expecting much back in return.
I don’t think anyone is expecting anything back in return. It’s what draft pick will need to be dealt and how much money will be retained to move them. We are likely better off buying them out than trading them
 

CupHolders

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I don’t think anyone is expecting anything back in return. It’s what draft pick will need to be dealt and how much money will be retained to move them. We are likely better off buying them out than trading them

Absolutely not. Withholding cap hit (except in rare circumstances the player is under 26) is always more worthwhile than a buyout.

Pageau at 2.5M even for two more years is an absolute no-brainer for any serious contender.
 

Nassau Revisited

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Absolutely not. Withholding cap hit (except in rare circumstances the player is under 26) is always more worthwhile than a buyout.

Pageau at 2.5M even for two more years is an absolute no-brainer for any serious contender.
I would be happy to get rid of JGP and retain if we can get some value
 

CupHolders

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I would be happy to get rid of JGP and retain if we can get some value
Just consider his face-off percentage throughout his career... then look at the third line salaries throughout the NHL. Pageau at 2.5M is a steal for that alone.

Personally, I think Pageau is grossly under-appreciated. But I get it... if you can lose with him, you can lose without him. So I am playing along with the notion of... what to do if you rebuild.

But under no scenario can I see having to buy-out Pageau. Either hold cap and get an asset. Or, keep him and let him acclimate the first round picks everyone is looking to acquire.
 

Throttle

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Sep 22, 2020
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Honestly I think there are contenders that would want Lee, isles would need to retain a few million probably but there are playoff teams I believe he’d fit into, Kings are one that come to mind. I think even Vegas as well especially with how banged up they are getting. Would Lou trade the captain in season is a big question.
Lee has value - transfer value in swapping players to make the cap hits work. Put Lee on PHI, DAL, Vegas and he’s a 25G scorer. He’s slower, the game is faster, but the Isles play waaaay to much perimeter play for him to do his job effectively.

Yes, Lou should trade Lee, if he can. Make a statement now, turn this team over to Horvat. You sunset Clutter, another ‘leader’ out. That’s a C and A in one swoop.
 

The Real JT

The percentage you’re paying is too high priced
Jul 2, 2018
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Just consider his face-off percentage throughout his career... then look at the third line salaries throughout the NHL. Pageau at 2.5M is a steal for that alone.

Personally, I think Pageau is grossly under-appreciated. But I get it... if you can lose with him, you can lose without him. So I am playing along with the notion of... what to do if you rebuild.

But under no scenario can I see having to buy-out Pageau. Either hold cap and get an asset. Or, keep him and let him acclimate the first round picks everyone is looking to acquire.

I agree that Pageau has value, but I think we can all say he still overpaid. I also agree there is no way he would be bought out.

Assuming Nelson is dealt either at this year‘s TDL or in the off-season, that’s yet another reason why Pageau will be going nowhere. The isles have no center depth in their pipeline and unless they get an NHL ready center in return for a trade, one or both of Nelson and Pageau will be staying. The same goes for Cizikas who has NHL value, but is not exactly a bargain based on his term and AAV.
 

Glorydays22

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Nov 21, 2011
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Lee has negative value. If he only had one more year on his deal after this season I think we could move him, but I doubt he's going to be moved. A buy out seems like the only option. We had to attached a 2nd round to get rid of Bailey and he had 1 less year left, had $2million lower hit, and less in actual salary to boot than Lee.

Realistically the only player that would have trade value for us that we might move is Nelson.
I agree, but I just don't see (although it's the right move clearly) Lou moving Nelson. Not unless he starts getting some directive from the owners.
 

PK Cronin

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Feb 11, 2013
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I kinda thought the same thing when they signed Giroux, maybe they're still looking for more veterans to surround their youth movement? Not like Brock's production has fallen off recently either.

I think Giroux made sense because he's a veteran and he wanted to play for his hometown team (I think). Nelson would leave the moment he was able to I'd assume. Too much of a risk for Ottawa at this point.

Just consider his face-off percentage throughout his career... then look at the third line salaries throughout the NHL. Pageau at 2.5M is a steal for that alone.

Personally, I think Pageau is grossly under-appreciated. But I get it... if you can lose with him, you can lose without him. So I am playing along with the notion of... what to do if you rebuild.

But under no scenario can I see having to buy-out Pageau. Either hold cap and get an asset. Or, keep him and let him acclimate the first round picks everyone is looking to acquire.

I agree with most of your assessment.

His contract was right before the cap freeze, he was having a career year, and he hasn't lived up to his billing. I think some of that is because he's been forced to play with guys like Wahlstrom and part of it is his own doing. Bad timing is mostly to blame for that deal. He's still an NHLer and slots into that third line center role pretty nicely for most teams around the league who are looking for one.

Eating half his salary, or Lee, or someone else, is probably the only path forward to see any significant change on the roster.
 
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The Real JT

The percentage you’re paying is too high priced
Jul 2, 2018
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I don’t think there’s anyone left in the camp that says “go on a run, sneak in the playoffs and then see what happens” but just in case, here’s this.

The Isles are ahead of only 4 teams in the Eastern Conference in points percentage per game (Buffalo, Montreal, Ottawa and Columbus).
 

WangMustGo

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Mar 31, 2008
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I don’t think there’s anyone left in the camp that says “go on a run, sneak in the playoffs and then see what happens” but just in case, here’s this.

The Isles are ahead of only 4 teams in the Eastern Conference in points percentage per game (Buffalo, Montreal, Ottawa and Columbus).

I hate to say it, but this team is toast. I just hope Lou sees that as well and doesn’t mortgage anymore of our future. See the UFAs and Nelson. Go into the offseason and reevaluate.
 

PK Cronin

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Feb 11, 2013
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I don’t think there’s anyone left in the camp that says “go on a run, sneak in the playoffs and then see what happens” but just in case, here’s this.

The Isles are ahead of only 4 teams in the Eastern Conference in points percentage per game (Buffalo, Montreal, Ottawa and Columbus).

I'm hopeful that they'll put it together and go on a run, it's certainly possible given the players the team has, but I don't think it'll actually happen. They've shown us all season that they're a team that can't close out games and I don't expect that to change.

I don't want Lamoriello adding to the roster unless it's something similar to the Horvat or Romanov deal where it's adding a younger player with skill to the lineup who will be here long term. Rentals or veterans are out of the equation for me.

Reasons to be optimistic moving forward (next season) is that the Islanders are still among the top tier teams when it comes to minutes trailing. That's at least somewhat of an indication that the team has the talent necessary to get leads. Having more time with Roy and implementing a cohesive system/structure in the off-season might help the team fix the penalty kill and with closing out games. They lead the league in OT games, so they're in almost every game until the end.

We all know the negatives, lack of top end skill, older players on long contracts, and a pretty barren prospect pool.

The Eastern Conference is so tightly packed that they could be above three more teams in points percentage with two or three wins.
 

Throttle

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Sep 22, 2020
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I don’t think there’s anyone left in the camp that says “go on a run, sneak in the playoffs and then see what happens” but just in case, here’s this.

The Isles are ahead of only 4 teams in the Eastern Conference in points percentage per game (Buffalo, Montreal, Ottawa and Columbus).
Perennial rebuilds love company.
 

The Real JT

The percentage you’re paying is too high priced
Jul 2, 2018
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Connecticut
I don’t think there’s anyone left in the camp that says “go on a run, sneak in the playoffs and then see what happens” but just in case, here’s this.

The Isles are ahead of only 4 teams in the Eastern Conference in points percentage per game (Buffalo, Montreal, Ottawa and Columbus).

Perennial rebuilds love company.

So they’re the best of the worst? Got it.
 

Chapin Landvogt

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I think you’d have to attach at least a 1st for any team to even consider taking Lee. He is a boat anchor. At this point I think the best thing the isles can do is move Nelson at the deadline, along with any of the ufas that have any value.

Go into the offseason with at least 2 first round picks, and hopefully a few extra midround picks. See what becomes available in the offseason.

There could be something there for a team like Chicago without having to add anything.

Say, Lee and Mayfield for Seth Jones?

In such a case, Chicago would be taking on an extra million for the remaining two years of Lee's contract.

But those are two players who can help on the ice, in the locker room, and theoretically in the toughness department for a team that will be needing to protect Bedard considerably in the coming years while just plain deepening the quality of players they're surrounding Bedard with. That's a team I can see Lee getting some dirty PP goals for as well.

I can also see Lee having Chicago on the 15-team list. Much closer to home and right around the corner from his alma mater.

We wouldn't free up any cap space, but we'd free up a LW spot for a better skater and we'd upgrade CONSIDERABLY on defense.

You don't ideally want that money wrapped up in one blueline, or even one side of the blueline, but it's something to think about. And if things work out, maybe there are options to move Pulock when Dobson's payday sets in.

For those not in the know, Jones can be a beast. The hockey world has simply come to know that he can't bare the burden of entire blueline squad the way a Chicago would need him to, despite what he's being paid. But you get him on a team like this and you've got another Pulock with 40-50% more production offensively.
 
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Chapin Landvogt

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Lee has value - transfer value in swapping players to make the cap hits work. Put Lee on PHI, DAL, Vegas and he’s a 25G scorer. He’s slower, the game is faster, but the Isles play waaaay to much perimeter play for him to do his job effectively.

Yes, Lou should trade Lee, if he can. Make a statement now, turn this team over to Horvat. You sunset Clutter, another ‘leader’ out. That’s a C and A in one swoop.

Just, the M-NTC with the 15-team clause doesn't set in until next season.

Lee is unmovable right now - unless he'd drop the NTC entirely for some reason.

I think we're all assuming that Cal and Matty will be walking this summer. I can see Matty retiring.

Theoretically, if Lou would decide to be very savvy and recognize this season and this team's weaknesses for what they are, there are some potentially very nice options out there for particularly Nelson, but also Pageau.

And then you've got some work to do in the summer, but an opportunity to really make some headway at weeding out what's in there.

PS) I continue to think that Beauvillier can be had for 1 to 1.5 MM this summer. Bring him back for a lower line role?

PPS) I have no problem seeing Engvall continuing on with this team for several reasons. Sure, I don't think he's a top 6 winger. We've come to see that. I do think he can do plenty for a third line as a puck-possession and play driving player.
 
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SI

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Feb 16, 2013
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Just, the M-NTC with the 15-team clause doesn't set in until next season.

Lee is unmovable right now - unless he'd drop the NTC entirely for some reason.

I think we're all assuming that Cal and Matty will be walking this summer. I can see Matty retiring.

Theoretically, if Lou would decide to be very savvy and recognize this season and this team's weaknesses for what they are, there are some potentially very nice options out there for particularly Nelson, but also Pageau.

And then you've got some work to do in the summer, but an opportunity to really make some headway at weeding out what's in there.

PS) I continue to think that Beauvillier can be had for 1 to 1.5 MM this summer. Bring him back for a lower line role?

PPS) I have no problem seeing Engvall continuing on with this team for several reasons. Sure, I don't think he's a top 6 winger. We've come to see that. I do think he can do plenty for a third line as a puck-possession and play driving player.
Agreed, I would love to have Beau back, especially at that # - need strong and pesky forecheckers like Beau. There also maybe more players like Beau who could be had for cheap.

Lou will go big game hunting and if he does land a big fish, then moving Palmieri (on an expiring contract & a Lee buyout or trade with retention in July can work. Wahlstrom is arbitration-eligible, so a July buyout could be possible.

If Lee stays, then I can also see Pageau being dealt with some retention could land some draft capital.

I am reluctant on Nelson - Lou could hold on and then deal him towards TDL next season. If he is moved for futures then eyes should be on Detroit - Danielson or Axel Sandin-Pellika as a key return.
 

SI

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Feb 16, 2013
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I'm hopeful that they'll put it together and go on a run, it's certainly possible given the players the team has, but I don't think it'll actually happen. They've shown us all season that they're a team that can't close out games and I don't expect that to change.

I don't want Lamoriello adding to the roster unless it's something similar to the Horvat or Romanov deal where it's adding a younger player with skill to the lineup who will be here long term. Rentals or veterans are out of the equation for me.

Reasons to be optimistic moving forward (next season) is that the Islanders are still among the top tier teams when it comes to minutes trailing. That's at least somewhat of an indication that the team has the talent necessary to get leads. Having more time with Roy and implementing a cohesive system/structure in the off-season might help the team fix the penalty kill and with closing out games. They lead the league in OT games, so they're in almost every game until the end.

We all know the negatives, lack of top end skill, older players on long contracts, and a pretty barren prospect pool.

The Eastern Conference is so tightly packed that they could be above three more teams in points percentage with two or three wins.
26 games left - 17-9 record would put the Isles @ 94 points.

7 games against sub 500 teams like - 5-2 record would be great!
  • @San Jose
  • @Anaheim
  • Chicago (H)
  • Ottawa (H)
  • Montreal (H)
  • @Buffalo
  • @Columbus

8 games against teams directly in the playoff race - 6-2 record
  • 2 games against Detroit - need both W
  • 2 games against Devils - need to split
  • 2 games against Tampa - need to W and at least a loser point in the next game
  • @ Flyers - must Win
  • Home - Pens - must Win
3 games against middle-of-the-pack teams - 2-1 record
  • Home - Blues
  • @ Kings
  • Home - Nashville
8 games are against top teams - 4-4 record
  • Home - Boston
  • 3 against Rangers
  • @ Dallas
  • Home - Winnipeg
  • @ Florida
  • Home - Carolina
 
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LeapOnOver

Mackenzie is a hack!
Jan 23, 2011
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Dobson becoming star helps offset that draft. Wahlstrom for a kid who supposedly can score hasn’t scored since junior UsA team days. He didn’t score in his year in college and didn’t in AHL and hasn’t in NHL either. It’s funny cause he is big kid, he has shown some willingness now and then to hit snd fight I’m surprised no veteran in that room has told him to embrace that type of role and reinvent himself somewhat. Maybe he’s resistant to thst also but he will be playing in KHL next year I bet.
When he embraced that role he demolished his knee. I could sit here and psychoanalyze him but I'll just leave it at: Couldn't score at the NHL level, stopped trying; couldn't hit at an NHL level, stopped trying.
 

LeapOnOver

Mackenzie is a hack!
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I hate to say it, but this team is toast. I just hope Lou sees that as well and doesn’t mortgage anymore of our future. See the UFAs and Nelson. Go into the offseason and reevaluate.
He doesn't. He just told Shannon he wouldn't have changed coaches if he didn't believe in this group. He's deep into sunk cost fallacy realm at this point.
 

IslesNorway

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Apr 9, 2007
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Face it, Lou's not gonna do anything with this roster, even in the summer. We can only hope he lands a couple of late rounders at the deadline, but I think even that is unlikely. And Nelson isn't going anywhere. He will get a nice extension in the offseason.

Nothing changes as long as Lou is in charge. The only hope of some fresh faces and a bit of new hope lies in a new GM.
 
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