Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[WangMustGo]

The isles don’t have enough speed to hide Lee, it might be wise to move on from him. Vancouver could use him as a net front presence.

Unfortunately noone will take Lee. His contract is awful. Best we can hope is he somehow salvages another 20 goal year, but I think those days may be a thing of the past now that he isnt on PP1.

 

[duster19]

I think the Islanders are badly missing a third line. For Pageau's entire tenure here besides the first season he is always stuck with the underperforming player or new guy. Having to play with Holmstrom, Gauthier, Lee, Wahlstrom, etc has been brutal on him. The best line he likely played with was actually Palmieri and Zajac when they had them.

I am not fully ready to throw Lee on that list because I think he has a lot more to offer but as an organization we need to view Lee as a 20-25 goal scorer instead of a 25-30 goal scorer.

I think Pageau played a lot with Parise over the last couple seasons. Going to be a tough for him now having to carry Lee in place of Parise.

 

[MJF]

No Mayfield at practice again this morning as per Gross.

I'm starting to think that his lower body injury is a fracture.

 

[Throttle]

Life without Mayfield…let’s see how this goes.

 

[Osakahaus]

Because they're apparently on the market.

Well yes but also look at the third and first line. You kinda need someone to help give balance to the lineup. Garland is the perfect guy.

No Mayfield at practice again this morning as per Gross.

I'm starting to think that his lower body injury is a fracture.

Rasmus Dahlin really ended the season....

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Unfortunately noone will take Lee. His contract is awful. Best we can hope is he somehow salvages another 20 goal year, but I think those days may be a thing of the past now that he isnt on PP1.

Re: Lee
That's right. There's no market for that contract.

And surely the organization has no interest in trading him even if it did have marketability.

He signed to stick it out here over the long run. And yes, he'll likely be basically a 4th line topic by the final years of that contract.

I wouldn't call it awful though. That he's still here is actually quite a fine story for this team - and a testimony to his loyalty to and patience with this franchise (even if likely discussed in advance with Lou 'n co.). Let's not forget that he became a UFA the summer after Tavares walked. The team could ill afford to have two straight captains walk away. Simply too much image damage would take place. Not to mention, after him and Panarin, the LW market was pretty barren that summer.

And yet, his contract issues were put on hold until the team knew if it would be able to, in essence, upgrade him by signing Panarin. First once Panarin signed with the Rangers did he then slide back into the spotlight and signed a very good contract. An overly good contract. It was a contract that we ALL knew wouldn't age well. That was the price we paid to have him wait it out and not go explore his options on the UFA market. That was the price we had to pay for retaining a captain who was a 6th rounder who overachieved his way into being an impact NHL player.

But the contract was not an overpayment. He was going to get that money or more that summer on the free market. No doubt about that.

 

[MJF]

Re: Lee
That's right. There's no market for that contract.

And surely the organization has no interest in trading him even if it did have marketability.

He signed to stick it out here over the long run. And yes, he'll likely be basically a 4th line topic by the final years of that contract.

I wouldn't call it awful though. That he's still here is actually quite a fine story for this team - and a testimony to his loyalty to and patience with this franchise (even if likely discussed in advance with Lou 'n co.). Let's not forget that he became a UFA the summer after Tavares walked. The team could ill afford to have two straight captains walk away. Simply too much image damage would take place. Not to mention, after him and Panarin, the LW market was pretty barren that summer.

And yet, his contract issues were put on hold until the team knew if it would be able to, in essence, upgrade him by signing Panarin. First once Panarin signed with the Rangers did he then slide back into the spotlight and signed a very good contract. An overly good contract. It was a contract that we ALL knew wouldn't age well. That was the price we paid to have him wait it out and not go explore his options on the UFA market. That was the price we had to pay for retaining a captain who was a 6th rounder who overachieved his way into being an impact NHL player.

But the contract was not an overpayment. He was going to get that money or more that summer on the free market. No doubt about that.

As has been said in this forum in the past. One contract like Lee's isn't a problem. It's when you have 5 or 6 contracts that are $1M overpays and a few years too much term that it's a problem. That's why people groused about Lee at the time he signed but were generally okay with the contract.

Since then Lee's contract was joined by Martin, Cizikas, Clutterbuck, Pageau, Pulock, Palmieri, Barzal, Engvall, Mayfield.

In fact, the only value contract we have on this roster is Brock Nelson's, imho.

 

[Throttle]

As has been said in this forum in the past. One contract like Lee's isn't a problem. It's when you have 5 or 6 contracts that are $1M overpays and a few years too much term that it's a problem. That's why people groused about Lee at the time he signed but were generally okay with the contract.

Since then Lee's contract was joined by Martin, Cizikas, Clutterbuck, Pageau, Pulock, Palmieri, Barzal, Engvall, Mayfield.

In fact, the only value contract we have on this roster is Brock Nelson's, imho.

Nelson is the only value player on the roster.

 

[Osakahaus]

So we have to trust Aho and Bolduc against Colorado, who have look downright dominant all season.

yeah this season could take a very nasty turn real quick if we dont get our offense going.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

As has been said in this forum in the past. One contract like Lee's isn't a problem. It's when you have 5 or 6 contracts that are $1M overpays and a few years too much term that it's a problem. That's why people groused about Lee at the time he signed but were generally okay with the contract.

Since then Lee's contract was joined by Martin, Cizikas, Clutterbuck, Pageau, Pulock, Palmieri, Barzal, Engvall, Mayfield.

In fact, the only value contract we have on this roster is Brock Nelson's, imho.

How do you determine what is an "overpay" though? I think plenty of teams would have lined up to sign the players you mentioned above to the same term and money the Isles did.

The one head scratcher for me (which you did not mention) was Varlamov's new deal. $5M for a back-up, when you have one of the top 3 goalies in the world, seems like way too much. Would he have gotten the same deal elsewhere on the market? Maybe/probably? But nowhere would he have such a limited role. I get that it's essentially insurance you're buying in case your #1 goes down, but this contract certainly seems out of line.

I'll take quibbling over an extra $1M here or an extra year of term there. At least we're A) willing to spend and B) players are willing to stay/sign here.

 

[MJF]

How do you determine what is an "overpay" though? I think plenty of teams would have lined up to sign the players you mentioned above to the same term and money the Isles did.

The one head scratcher for me (which you did not mention) was Varlamov's new deal. $5M for a back-up, when you have one of the top 3 goalies in the world, seems like way too much. Would he have gotten the same deal elsewhere on the market? Maybe/probably? But nowhere would he have such a limited role. I get that it's essentially insurance you're buying in case your #1 goes down, but this contract certainly seems out of line.

I'll take quibbling over an extra $1M here or an extra year of term there. At least we're A) willing to spend and B) players are willing to stay/sign here.

I forgot Varlamov. Add that to the list.

As to what’s an overpay, when you look at what the player has done over the career,you are paying him for past performance in the hopes he will produce above that. At the time Lee signed his contract the hope was he would routinely score in the 35 goal range. Given his style of play, I saw him as a Tim Kerr comparable, I thought it was possible so I didn’t complain at the time of his signing. But I think Anders fell short of that mark.

Then take the Palmieri and Pageau contracts for example. They are being paid like a 25-30 goal scorer. While that’s on target for Palms, injuries here have held him back. JGP was expected to score more and while I acknowledge that a broken wrist may have hampered his trajectory, he just never took that next step so many of us expected.

I don’t think scoring 20 goals in the NHL is a tough ask for most forwards. Especially when it is supposed to be on a team that wanted to roll 4 lines pretty equally.

 

[The Real JT]

Re: Lee
That's right. There's no market for that contract.

And surely the organization has no interest in trading him even if it did have marketability.

He signed to stick it out here over the long run. And yes, he'll likely be basically a 4th line topic by the final years of that contract.

I wouldn't call it awful though. That he's still here is actually quite a fine story for this team - and a testimony to his loyalty to and patience with this franchise (even if likely discussed in advance with Lou 'n co.). Let's not forget that he became a UFA the summer after Tavares walked. The team could ill afford to have two straight captains walk away. Simply too much image damage would take place. Not to mention, after him and Panarin, the LW market was pretty barren that summer.

And yet, his contract issues were put on hold until the team knew if it would be able to, in essence, upgrade him by signing Panarin. First once Panarin signed with the Rangers did he then slide back into the spotlight and signed a very good contract. An overly good contract. It was a contract that we ALL knew wouldn't age well. That was the price we paid to have him wait it out and not go explore his options on the UFA market. That was the price we had to pay for retaining a captain who was a 6th rounder who overachieved his way into being an impact NHL player.

But the contract was not an overpayment. He was going to get that money or more that summer on the free market. No doubt about that.

I’ll both agree and disagree with your take.

The Isles were in an unenviable position as you well stated. They couldn’t afford to lose Lee for all the reasons you wrote about. In the end, I was in favor of resigning him though I certainly wasn’t enthusiastic about it. With that being said, I’m not shocked to see how his deal had aged.

In retrospect, if we hadn’t signed him we would’ve been worse off in the short term. That means probably missing the playoffs and landing in the lottery. Since Lou doesn’t rebuild we know that pick wouldn’t have been ours anyway.

Lee gave us value for a few years and still does but to a lesser degree. I share everyone’s concern that it potentially might look far worse in a year or two.

At the end of the day, it was a deal we had to make.

 

[Throttle]

How do you determine what is an "overpay" though? I think plenty of teams would have lined up to sign the players you mentioned above to the same term and money the Isles did.

The one head scratcher for me (which you did not mention) was Varlamov's new deal. $5M for a back-up, when you have one of the top 3 goalies in the world, seems like way too much. Would he have gotten the same deal elsewhere on the market? Maybe/probably? But nowhere would he have such a limited role. I get that it's essentially insurance you're buying in case your #1 goes down, but this contract certainly seems out of line.

I'll take quibbling over an extra $1M here or an extra year of term there. At least we're A) willing to spend and B) players are willing to stay/sign here.

We don’t know, that seems like a security blanket contract for Sorokin vs some random scrub playing with him for $1M.

I’ll both agree and disagree with your take.

The Isles were in an unenviable position as you well stated. They couldn’t afford to lose Lee for all the reasons you wrote about. In the end, I was in favor of resigning him though I certainly wasn’t enthusiastic about it. With that being said, I’m not shocked to see how his deal had aged.

In retrospect, if we hadn’t signed him we would’ve been worse off in the short term. That means probably missing the playoffs and landing in the lottery. Since Lou doesn’t rebuild we know that pick wouldn’t have been ours anyway.

Lee gave us value for a few years and still does but to a lesser degree. I share everyone’s concern that it potentially might look far worse in a year or two.

At the end of the day, it was a deal we had to make.

And the lottery had provided the Isles Barzal, Beau, Dobson, and Wally - not really a crop that had paid back the lotto positions and years of crud. And for those that love lotto land, this team is floundering because of these players being way less than advertised.

 

[Throttle]

If one shoots the puck at the net with Lee standing there, he’s gonna net 20-30Gs. However, the PP is some poorly executed Paul Coffey zone entry and a bunch of guys that don’t want to shoot.

While Lee might be slow in comparison to today’s speed, the team is not using him correctly and the players that are being asked to do it, well, don’t.

 

[MJF]

I’ll both agree and disagree with your take.

The Isles were in an unenviable position as you well stated. They couldn’t afford to lose Lee for all the reasons you wrote about. In the end, I was in favor of resigning him though I certainly wasn’t enthusiastic about it. With that being said, I’m not shocked to see how his deal had aged.

In retrospect, if we hadn’t signed him we would’ve been worse off in the short term. That means probably missing the playoffs and landing in the lottery. Since Lou doesn’t rebuild we know that pick wouldn’t have been ours anyway.

Lee gave us value for a few years and still does but to a lesser degree. I share everyone’s concern that it potentially might look far worse in a year or two.

At the end of the day, it was a deal we had to make.

I forgot to throw in that in Lee's case (and Thomas Hickey's case) there were extenuating circumstances.

 

[Osakahaus]

We have to also play Gauthier and Holmstrom with Pageau. Make the 3rd line pressure more, and start rotating out Martin and Clutterbuck. Yesterday is a perfect example to show why we cannot throw the 4th line out in key moments. It just has become a detriment to this team.

I guess that Lambert heard me. Good. He got 1 of them down. wahlstrom ain't bad either. I just wish Lee didn't get clipped by Zacha in 2021. That injury might've killed his career and sent him to the horrors of Andrew Ladd tier legacy.

 

[MJF]

We don’t know, that seems like a security blanket contract for Sorokin vs some random scrub playing with him for $1M.


And the lottery had provided the Isles Barzal, Beau, Dobson, and Wally - not really a crop that had paid back the lotto positions and years of crud. And for those that love lotto land, this team is floundering because of these players being way less than advertised.

To give Varlamov a fair shake, that was quite a performance he gave in Buffalo. But for him we would have lost 6-1. He kept the Isles close on the scoreboard.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

Garland is the perfect guy.

Well, obviously, right.

 

[The Real JT]

To give Varlamov a fair shake, that was quite a performance he gave in Buffalo. But for him we would have lost 6-1. He kept the Isles close on the scoreboard.

Varly will have some quality starts but I’ll bet he’s a sub .500 W-L goalie this year when it’s all said and done.

For me, he’s a luxury we can’t afford. We’re riding this train on the back of Sorokin and the presence of Varly doesn’t move the needle much for me.

As you stated before it’s not one contract that has this team’s cap structure in trouble. It’s the collective sum of many ill-advised contracts. His deal is on that list.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

I forgot Varlamov. Add that to the list.

As to what’s an overpay, when you look at what the player has done over the career,you are paying him for past performance in the hopes he will produce above that. At the time Lee signed his contract the hope was he would routinely score in the 35 goal range. Given his style of play, I saw him as a Tim Kerr comparable, I thought it was possible so I didn’t complain at the time of his signing. But I think Anders fell short of that mark.

Then take the Palmieri and Pageau contracts for example. They are being paid like a 25-30 goal scorer. While that’s on target for Palms, injuries here have held him back. JGP was expected to score more and while I acknowledge that a broken wrist may have hampered his trajectory, he just never took that next step so many of us expected.

I don’t think scoring 20 goals in the NHL is a tough ask for most forwards. Especially when it is supposed to be on a team that wanted to roll 4 lines pretty equally.

I disagree with the bolded. In pro sports leagues with restricted free agency, you are paying for past performance. It just is what it is. Young players who have strong seasons early on are looking to cash in after being "underpaid" in their first few years. There will always be teams justifying signing a player past his prime. And that is what sets the market.

Hindsight is always 20/20. While your arguments may be valid now, tough to say at the time those contracts were signed that they were overpays.

Edit: I was wrong above. Varly is making 2.75 AAV, not 5. Still a lot for a back up...

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

Just making up expectations, then being upset that they're not met. Seems fine.

 

[MJF]

I disagree with the bolded. In pro sports leagues with restricted free agency, you are paying for past performance. It just is what it is. Young players who have strong seasons early on are looking to cash in after being "underpaid" in their first few years. There will always be teams justifying signing a player past his prime. And that is what sets the market.

Hindsight is always 20/20. While your arguments may be valid now, tough to say at the time those contracts were signed that they were overpays.

Edit: I was wrong above. Varly is making 2.75 AAV, not 5. Still a lot for a back up...

For Varlamov it was the 4 years at that amount for a 35 year old backup. You just don’t do that in a salary cap world. I stand by my comment that it’s a bad contract.

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

Let's not forget that Tavares left after two straight seasons missing the playoffs. Plus the overall feeling that could never get him a sidekick all the while bouncing around from one old crappy building to the other non-hockey arena.

Lee re-signed after a 103 point season and a playoff series win with a brand new building on the horizon.

 

[YearlyLottery]

Pageau and Lee haven't played together very much historically. Give them some time to gel and figure each other out and I think they'll be better.

I agree with this and think a third line with Pageau and Lee has some potential. Lee has not lost his strength with the puck or along the boards. I would like to see them with a reliable third line winger though.

 

[YearlyLottery]

Let's not forget that Tavares left after two straight seasons missing the playoffs. Plus the overall feeling that could never get him a sidekick all the while bouncing around from one old crappy building to the other non-hockey arena.

Lee re-signed after a 103 point season and a playoff series win with a brand new building on the horizon.

Nah. Tavares left after the organization hired Trotz and Lou. Tavares leaving was never the problem it was the idiotic move by him to openly act like he wanted to say. Tavares was NEVER staying the moment he and his wife decided they wanted to return to Canada. Which is fine but just say something.