Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

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And this should not be acceptable to anyone yet it’s okay for several people here. Why? Because it’s an either/or proposition. Just get in the playoffs and then we go to town because we’re playoff built, or it’s back to the Sim, Sutton, Konopka days of missing the dance.
There’s no in between.
As someone solidly in the "in between" category, I'm not sure what you're saying here. I'm not aware of many (any?) chest-thumping "we're winning the Cup baby!" types here, and at the other extreme is "tear it down and rebuild", right?
 
Isn’t that what Lou has been doing here with the Islanders? Builds “a team made for the playoffs”, provided they can get out of the regular season?
Seems like it. I’m not saying I agree with how the team is structured or performed though. I have my dissenting opinions on various players that Lou - him 100% - invested in.
 
As someone solidly in the "in between" category, I'm not sure what you're saying here. I'm not aware of many (any?) chest-thumping "we're winning the Cup baby!" types here, and at the other extreme is "tear it down and rebuild", right?
Not chest thumping about making the playoffs. The “I don’t care what spot we get as long as we get in” troop.
 
As someone solidly in the "in between" category, I'm not sure what you're saying here. I'm not aware of many (any?) chest-thumping "we're winning the Cup baby!" types here, and at the other extreme is "tear it down and rebuild", right?
I prefer the Komarov days when he was blamed for everything, yet since he was removed from the team, the team performed worse…
 
To be fair even before the Islanders acquired Bo I was reading posts stating that they couldn't fit in a player of his caliber. All of a sudden a prospect value pops like Raty and bam they pull off a trade.

I do not see why it is so crazy that one of Dufour, Maggio, Durandeau, Bolduc, or Wahlstrom pop. I'm not saying all of these guys will but I do believe we see one of them at the very least.
They could but. I doubt it happens this year. I think we ride or die with a mix and match of Martin, Clutterbuck, Cizikas, Holmstrom, Fasching, Gauthier, Pageau, Johnston. This isn’t a group you can roll 4 lines with all game long.
 
Not chest thumping about making the playoffs. The “I don’t care what spot we get as long as we get in” troop.
I think you seriously underestimate how difficult it is to make the playoffs in todays NHL - 16 teams only make it out of 32! The 13-16 seeds are not shit like in the NBA - the margins are so slim.

Look at Florida - they were the f***ing 8th seed and rode a hot goalie and some serious momentum - and Matthew Tkachuk put that team on his back! They were a complete shit show in the regular season and at one point being called out by Keith Tkachuk 2 weeks before the season ended as the softest team in the league.

Their playoff performance has changed everything about that team moving forward.
 
I think you seriously underestimate how difficult it is to make the playoffs in todays NHL - 16 teams only make it out of 32! The 13-16 seeds are not shit like in the NBA - the margins are so slim.

Look at Florida - they were the f***ing 8th seed and rode a hot goalie and some serious momentum - and Matthew Tkachuk put that team on his back! They were a complete shit show in the regular season and at one point being called out by Keith Tkachuk 2 weeks before the season ended as the softest team in the league.

Their playoff performance has changed everything about that team moving forward.
Half the league makes the playoffs. It’s not a big deal.
 
Here's how I see things shaping out:

The bottom 6 isn't great. Clutter is done. Martin and Cizikas aren't far behind him. Fasching needs to be a starter.
Pageau is what he is. And his linemates are still TBD. Not great. If none of the young guys can hold down a spot and provide some secondary scoring next to Pageau, we're in trouble.

I can see special teams being a big problem for us again too, imo.

The top 6 is much improved, which is nice. A full season of Horvat and Engvall will make up for a lot.

The defense should be a bit better too with another year of experience under their belts. And they're healthy.

Goaltending should continue to be a strength, along with the teams ability to play well 5v5.

In a tight division, a weak bottom 6 and poor special teams could be enough to sink us...but I think they'll be ok and have enough to at least grab a wildcard spot. Fingers crossed.
 
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Here's how I see things shaping out:

The bottom 6 isn't great. Clutter is done. Martin and Cizikas aren't far behind him. Fasching needs to be a starter.
Pageau is what he is. And his linemates are still TBD. Not great. If none of the young guys can hold down a spot and provide some secondary scoring next to Pageau, we're in trouble.

I can see special teams being a big problem for us again too, imo.

The top 6 is much improved, which is nice. A full season of Horvat and Engvall will make up for a lot.

The defense should be a bit better too with another year of experience under their belts. And they're healthy.

Goaltending should continue to be a strength, along with the teams ability to play well 5v5.

In a tight division, a weak bottom 6 and poor special teams could be enough to sink us...but I think they'll be ok and have enough to at least grab a wildcard spot. Fingers crossed.
Their PK is top 10 in the league.

PP will be better next year - full season of Horvat and Engvall will make an impact.
 
What difference does it make in regards to what spot you make the playoffs? Who gives a shit.

I think it is something that makes fans feel better throughout the course of the season. Before the playoffs I would've said that the Islanders are great at home so getting home ice is crucial. Then in round one they lost games 4 and 6 at home.

2012 Kings won four rounds as the lower seed
2014 Kings three rounds
2015 Blackhawks three rounds
2018 Capitals two rounds
2019 Blues three rounds
2021 Lightning two rounds

The one thing that recent trends support though is teams going into the playoffs above .500 the last ten games they play of the regular season.
 
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I think it is something that makes fans feel better throughout the course of the season. Before the playoffs I would've said that the Islanders are great at home so getting home ice is crucial. Then in round one they lost games 4 and 6 at home.

2012 Kings won four rounds as the lower seed
2014 Kings three rounds
2015 Blackhawks three rounds
2018 Capitals two rounds
2019 Blues three rounds
2021 Lightning two rounds

The one thing that recent trends support though is teams going into the playoffs above .500 the last ten games they play of the regular season.
Momentum seems more important vs place in standings, but agree with your initial point. The place in the standings gives fans more hope and belief and the media talks more flattering of teams at the top of the standings vs. those just getting in.
 
Sure, best player of bad contracts type of move. Why not? But, was PITs issue offense, let alone offense from defense? Nope.

So, Dumbo got the unnecessary best player and locked himself into inflexibility with weak depth, weak d depth, suspect goaltending, and overall erratic play - Karlsson doesn’t help the erratic play.
This move is not without risks. However, EK's contract and San Jose's unwillingness to eat much of the contract limited the number of teams he could've been dealt to. The Pens got rid of a lot of bad contracts in the move. Granlund would have been a buyout or cost a 2nd rounder to dump. Petry would have required a sweetener as well. He turned negative assets and cap space into the 22-23 Norris winner. That's not to say it's a risk free move. I agree that EK is not an ideal defenseman. He is quite bad defensively.

But this is what was available for them now. It's an aging core with a closing window. They got the best player on the market. This contract will likely not look good in two years. But does it matter? They were up against the cap and save money for this year while acquiring a 100 point defenseman.

He has also revamped the entire bottom 6 depth, which was the Pens main issue. Right or wrong, I love a GM who is able to identify problem areas and try to fix them. We are still waiting for a scoring winger and a true puck moving defenseman/PP QB. One day, perhaps.

I prefer the Komarov days when he was blamed for everything, yet since he was removed from the team, the team performed worse…
This is the most blatant case of not understanding causation vs correlation.
 
To be fair even before the Islanders acquired Bo I was reading posts stating that they couldn't fit in a player of his caliber. All of a sudden a prospect value pops like Raty and bam they pull off a trade.

I do not see why it is so crazy that one of Dufour, Maggio, Durandeau, Bolduc, or Wahlstrom pop. I'm not saying all of these guys will but I do believe we see one of them at the very least.
Raty didn't even pop. He was fine, and the Isles I believe sold high. Good organizations have a knack of selling high on players/assets. While Bo Horvat is an obvious upgrade over what we had, at his current contract, just as many of the Islanders, he is overrated. He is a bottom tier 1st line center who had a high shooting percentage. I prefer the Isles start spending futures on guys who haven't popped yet. Romanov is a good example of such a swing. I don't particularly like the player, but because we have so many bloated contracts, the way to maximize the window is to take swings on players who you think are undervalued and cost-controlled. Trading for a player who is at his absolute peak (Horvat) is usually bad asset management. We got him for fairly cheap, but the re-sign cost will hurt.
 
If your life depended on picking the Stanley Cup winner going into a season and you were allowed to select a pool of 8 teams, would you be comfortable with that? I wouldn't be.
 
We're just looking at things on paper and I'd be surprised to see if you thought this team was in a worse position on paper this fall than last. I think this team will "struggle" to make the playoffs again (meaning they'll be a team battling for the Wild Card spots) but that's the position they've always had during Lamoriello's tenure here.

The way I see it is...Last fall, this fall - It doesn't matter. They aren't good enough to win a Cup (again hope I'm wrong, but I'm also including coaching in that assessment).


I don't care about the Penguins either but if you don't think they can win the cup even with Karlsson, how is that the right move? Objectively they should be re-building but they won't because they won't part with their core players and want them all to retire Penguins.

Oh I think the Penguins should've started rebuilding a few seasons ago, but if you're not going to and keep Crosby, Malkin, Letang, etc together then going for an elite talent liker Karlsson is what they should be doing.

They shouldn't be bringing back just the same team from last year since that team wasn't good enough. Sound familiar?


The second question is always the question. What qualifies as proving that they're able to compete for a cup? If they do not win the cup you can always say, "see, they aren't good enough to compete with the true cup contenders." If they do win the cup you'll be happy just like everyone else. It's very hard to quantify.

"Competing for a Cup" means that you're hovering around the Championship. To me losing in the 1st or 2nd round doesn't make you a Cup contender. If the Isles make the semi-finals this year (or any year in the next 3-4) I will be thoroughly impressed.

Again I think too many are looking back 2-3 years and seeing a semi-final appearance and think this team can replicate that because the roster still has so many of the same players on it. That's where I disagree with most because aside from the fact that the roster is older and I think the defense not as good, this team does not have Barry Trotz on it.

And to that point...I don't think the 19-20 and 20-21 teams get to the semi-finals without him. I think the coach was better than the GM and now that the GM is on his own I don't think we're going to see the same success with this group again.
 
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The way I see it is...Last fall, this fall - It doesn't matter. They aren't good enough to win a Cup (again hope I'm wrong, but I'm also including coaching in that assessment).




Oh I think the Penguins should've started rebuilding a few seasons ago, but if you're not going to and keep Crosby, Malkin, Letang, etc together then going for an elite talent liker Karlsson is what they should be doing.

They shouldn't be bringing back just the same team from last year since that team wasn't good enough. Sound familiar?




"Competing for a Cup" means that you're hovering around the Championship. To me losing in the 1st or 2nd round doesn't make you a Cup contender. If the Isles make the semi-finals this year (or any year in the next 3-4) I will be thoroughly impressed.

Again I think too many are looking back 2-3 years and seeing a semi-final appearance and think this team can replicate that because the roster still has so many of the same players on it. That's where I disagree with most because aside from the fact that the roster is older and I think the defense not as good, this team does not have Barry Trotz on it.

And to that point...I don't think the 19-20 and 20-21 teams get to the semi-finals without him. I think the coach was better than the GM and now that the GM is on his own I don't think we're going to see the same success with this group again.
You're absolutely right. There is no Barry Trotz. So where does that leave us?

Lou's 1980's aura of winning? That's long gone.
 
The team he took over had allowed the most goals against in the league, missed the playoffs, and was on the verge of seeing the franchise face walk away for nothing.

I'd ask you how you consider that "playoff-caliber", but I don't really want to hear the answer.



The team made the playoffs 3 straight seasons and got to the CF in two of those three seasons, getting to the second round in all three. That automatically made Lou the most successful Isles GM since Torrey during the Cup years. As in, matter of factly.

And even though I've often critiqued here that I've never seen a team move 4 straight first rounders without being in the midst of winning Cups, which we're obviously not, the farm has not been sold. The verifiable bluechippers may not be there, but there's plenty of NHL material in the system.

And save for Dobson, Romanov, and Nelson (each with 2 more years on the current contract), the absolute key guys on the Island are signed for a good long period of time. The franchise has no need for anyone in the system to usurp Sorokin in goal, Pelech/Pulock/Mayfield on the blueline, or Barzal/Horvat up front. Meaning, key positions are taken care of moving forward and then either the system or free agency can be used to round things out or even bolster them up accordingly.

The situation is not nearly as dire as you're making it out to be.
No, maybe it's not as dire as I make it out to be. But it can be. We'll just have to see how it pans out in the new year. Besides, the board was kinda dead. Just wanted to check if you guys were awake.
 
If your life depended on picking the Stanley Cup winner going into a season and you were allowed to select a pool of 8 teams, would you be comfortable with that? I wouldn't be.
Double down now…and your selections were based on off-season ‘winners’ and ‘losers.’
 
That he thinks a team who needed Vezina finalist level goaltending to make the playoffs was already good enough to make the playoffs without it proves there is no objectivity to his takes.
Wait… are you implying that Lehner was the difference in GAA and not the system Trotz put into place. R E A L L Y??? I can’t believe that some people are now arguing that the Isles success based on one of the leagues lowest GAA was a result of Lou’s choice in goaltenders versus Barry Trotz’s system. And they’re calling me revisionist? The entire system was based upon keeping shots against our goalies along the perimeter and not give any opposing players a “good look”. When you do that of course the goaltenders stats will improve.
 
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Their PK is top 10 in the league.

PP will be better next year - full season of Horvat and Engvall will make an impact.
Agree on the PP though the bar is set low using last season as a comparison. I see Horvat and Barzal finding chemistry and Dobson becoming the PP QB we need.

Now the bad news: Last year the Isles PK was #9 in the NHL but only 1 percentage point from #13. Stalwarts from that unit, Cizikas and Clutter have lost a step. Speed and reflexes are critically important on the PK. I see the unit regressing.
 
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