Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[JKP]

No NHL team is interested in Josh Bailey

I still think Arizona will make sense if they get into a cash crunch, which, lord knows, they likely will. $5M cap hit, $3.5M dollars. Someone will Garth Snow that contract.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

If it's a winger why not just move Nelson to wing.

This is being speculated upon because "why not just move Barzal to wing" is apparently untenable.

 

[OTC]

If you're the Hawks, do you call about Bailey?

Yes and NYI adds Dufour or a future 2nd.

 

[MJF]

Funny how trading Brock Nelson isn't so far fetched anymore.

For a team that needs goals, trading Nelson makes little sense. JGP is cheaper than Karlsson (and I’ve advocated for acquiring him, but Vegas wants to keep him) as a 3C.

Really, the odd guy out is the one everyone keeps trying to solve for. If anything, trade him for a winger and/or D-man to rebalance the roster and everything will settle down on the ice too.

Heresy. Think of all those Barzal jerseys that will end up in the back of everyone's closets.

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

Funny how trading Brock Nelson isn't so far fetched anymore.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

Funny how trading Brock Nelson isn't so far fetched anymore.

I think it's far fetched, but in context, it makes more sense than trading Pageau and putting Nelson at 3c.

 

[SRBisles]

Lindholm and Hanifin not signing in CGY. Their player retention has been…questionable to say the least. I feel for their fans.

 

[MJF]

Taking the long view of this team isn’t the strong suit of too many posters around here.

 

[MJF]

Sad!

Allegedly now the Ducks aren’t interested in Bailey either.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

I dont think the Islanders can afford to simply buyout Bailey. With the cap only going to $83.5 million, they have very limited cap space to work with as it is. They desperately need that 5 million.

According to Cap Friendly, they will be sitting at 22 players and right at $80 million assuming they can get Wahlstrom signed at a cool million- leaving 3.5 million in cap space.

Of course, that is with only 1 goalie, 15 forwards (MaClean, Johnston and Holmstrom included) and only 6 blueliners (recently signed Bolduc and Aho, leaving no #3 RD).

Let's assume for a minute that Parise comes back for peanuts, and lets be honest we need that to happen; and you "predict" your roster with the following "best case scenario":

Forwards: (12)
Barzal 9.15 million
Horvat 8.5
Lee 7
Nelson 6
Palmeiri 5
JGP 5
Cizikas 2.5
Clutterbuck 1.75
Martin 1.5
Wahlstrom 1.0
Parise .8
Fasching or Holmstrom (13th forward) .8

Defenseman: (6)
Pulock 6.15 million
Pelech 5.75
Dobson 4.0
Romanov 2.5
Aho or Bolduc .8
Bolduc or Aho (7th blueliner) .8

Goalie: (1)
Sorokin 4.0

That is an "ideal" start to building your roster, although one could easily argue for a veteran D as your #7 and not penciling in both Samuel and Sebastian as among them, but it is going to have to be on the real cheap end, which means (>$million) so not much change there anyway...

So now we need minimum another forward (preferably for the top 6), a RD (Mayfield or other) and a backup for Sorokin.

The 19 players above cost us 73 million against our cap, leaving only 10.5 million to get those three players. That of course is by ridding the 5 million of Bailey all together. That seems doable when the 3 players you could just re-sign (Engvall, Mayfield and Varlamov) likely will command close to that 10-11 million number combined. Close, anyway.

Another puck moving defenseman is also supposed to be goal, which in itself will be hard.

Buying out Bailey gives you less than 8 million in cap and makes it nearly impossible.

And subtracting anyone else making any substantial money on the roster (JGP, Palms, top 4 defenseman, etc) just means you need to replace them...

Time we swallow what that cost is going to be (2nd rounder perhaps, my hope is a prospect and 3rd or 4th rounder) to ship Josh, because we have to....

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

Taking the long view of this team isn’t the strong suit of too many posters around here.

Hey, a year ago I was extremely opposed to it and argued with you about it.

But, it's clear the team needs a change and as we assess what assets this team has, Brock Nelson is (unfortunately) the most valuable. The benefit to the Islanders organization, is that their highest valued asset is coming from a position of strength considering they have 4 other Centers - Horvat, Barzal, JGP and Cizikas.

It sucks to admit, but he might have to be traded to successfully "shake-up" the team for the better.

 

[periferal]

The proposal is to put a back-to-back 35 goal scorer making $6M playing 3rd line center? He’s essentially the best forward on the team and most cost efficient in cap/production, but gets buried on the 3rd line? Wow.

That was NOT the proposal. Try to take a breath, read all the words, and take a moment to digest the point before you reply.

 

[Tahoeblue]

IF, the Isles struggle out of the gate, maybe Lou listens to offers for Nelson at the TDL. I believe Nelson still has 2 years left on his deal. I personally love what JGP brings but maybe Lou fields offers to move him sooner rather than later. I believe it would be dealing from a position of strength and maybe Horvat and CC could help more with face offs and PK and addressing a need via a trade.

Bailey has to go and we have too many contracts and cap tied up for bottom 6 players. As many have pointed out there will probably be an add to move Bailey which hurts. My ideal 4th line is
Parise CC Fasching

Just my 2 cents

 

[Osakahaus]

Allegedly now the Ducks aren’t interested in Bailey either.

Then that leaves Chicago or Nashville

Damn the salary cap sucks

 

[Tres Peleches]

Then that leaves Chicago or Nashville

Damn the salary cap sucks

Looks like it might be time for Lou to bust out any and all dirt he collected on Trotz while he was on the Island

Maybe he has pics of him not actually being bald?

 

[Osakahaus]

The real issue to me is that Pageau is being thrown as a trade option, when in reality he's one of the most important players on this team. We whined about not having a 3C for so long, that now we see him as tradable?

 

[seafoam]

Then that leaves Chicago or Nashville

Damn the salary cap sucks

Buffalo could in theory be an option.

I wouldn’t be surprised if they had interest in Mayfield as well.

Maybe Mayfield’s right (with the intent for them to sign him) + Bailey for Olofsson + Jokiharju.

Or maybe NYI is just paying BUF to take Bailey without a contract coming back their way.

 

[seafoam]

The real issue to me is that Pageau is being thrown as a trade option, when in reality he's one of the most important players on this team. We whined about not having a 3C for so long, that now we see him as tradable?

At the time that Pageau was acquired, Nelson was more of a “middle-of-the-pack” 55 point 2C and Pageau was looking like a “high-end” 20 goal 3C.

Since the acquisition, Pageau’s offense fell off (defense is still strong but 5M per strong?) and Nelson grew into a 1C.

If Pageau was putting up the numbers he has been while garnering legit Selke votes, I’d be okay with him at 5M per. The problem is he’s not a Selke caliber forward and his offense is comparable to his role.

 

[Osakahaus]

At the time that Pageau was acquired, Nelson was more of a “middle-of-the-pack” 55 point 2C and Pageau was looking like a “high-end” 20 goal 3C.

Since the acquisition, Pageau’s offense fell off (defense is still strong but 5M per strong?) and Nelson grew into a 1C.

If Pageau was putting up the numbers he has been while garnering legit Selke votes, I’d be okay with him at 5M per. The problem is he’s not a Selke caliber forward and his offense is comparable to his role.

Pageau was almost near his career high with 12 games missed. I don't think you let go of such a player, especially when you still can compete

 

[MJF]

Hey, a year ago I was extremely opposed to it and argued with you about it.

But, it's clear the team needs a change and as we assess what assets this team has, Brock Nelson is (unfortunately) the most valuable. The benefit to the Islanders organization, is that their highest valued asset is coming from a position of strength considering they have 4 other Centers - Horvat, Barzal, JGP and Cizikas.

It sucks to admit, but he might have to be traded to successfully "shake-up" the team for the better.

We have to judge when our best assets are going to "time out" of being productive or being able to net a top return, and act on that before they die on the vine.

Being optimistic and hopeful for another shot at the Cup is great and all, but you have to balance it with realism.

The time for Lou to have made gradual adjustments to the roster was in the 2021-22 season. He decided to give that roster another shot at the Finals, which was fair for him to do. Unfortunately COVID scuttled that. At that point, the 2022 TDL Lou needed to become a seller. Instead he doubled down on his core only being able to add Zdeno Chara at the last minute. All the while, the rest of the NHL wasn't waiting for the Islanders to get a Lou do-over on the COVID year that decimated our season. Teams improved and the NHL continued to evolve. Lou held firm.

Now Lou's core players are showing more signs of dying on the vine.

 

[doublechili]

If you're adamant about using Barzal at center, you might as well keep Pageau for defensive and penalty killing duties, and trade Nelson. Not only would you get a much better return, you'd have a more natural hierarchy at center.

I don't disagree with that if they feel Barzal is a C. Going with Barzal, Horvat and JGP would be a more traditional distribution. And as you said, trading Nelson would bring a good return and fill a hole on D (Toews or Hanifin?) or the wing. Also, a decision is going to need to be made on Nelson in a year anyway - to extend or trade him. If they extend him he'll be 33 at the start of the new term. I don't see Brock as a guy who's gotten beaten up or who relies on speed, so he could contribute into his latter 30s. But still, term and $$ will be a question.

 

[leeroggy]

The real issue to me is that Pageau is being thrown as a trade option, when in reality he's one of the most important players on this team. We whined about not having a 3C for so long, that now we see him as tradable?

Not anymore he isn't, the injuries have taken a toll on him. Plus Horvat gives us all of Peageau's pluses anyhow with faceoffs, PK, etc. Pageau had the SAME basic offensive production as Beau did over the full season.

Something creative, assuming Mayfield is too costly, is to buy a year of salary cap by sending Pageau and Bailey and the rights to Mayfield to Vancouver for Myers. Vancouver has been talking about finding a 3C, so take advantage of that. Behind Petterson and Miller, the Canucks have Sheldon Dries and Nils Aman on their depth chart at C; this is a NO-BRAINER trading partner.

We overspend on Myers for the one year to play 3rd RHD for Mayfield and save $4 million in cap to reallocate to Varly or a similar, plus potentially look for a scoring upgrade.

Pageau has a LOT of mileage on him, he's not going to be the Pageau of 2019-20 ever again.

 

[Throttle]

Allegedly now the Ducks aren’t interested in Bailey either.

This is a clickbait nonsense. Kinda like all that nonsense on Varly and Bailey last time around…that was all falsehoods to drive clicks.

It would be great if a player sued one of these false rumors clickbait pieces for defamation.

 

[doublechili]

For a team that needs goals, trading Nelson makes little sense. JGP is cheaper than Karlsson (and I’ve advocated for acquiring him, but Vegas wants to keep him) as a 3C.

Really, the odd guy out is the one everyone keeps trying to solve for. If anything, trade him for a winger and/or D-man to rebalance the roster and everything will settle down on the ice too.

I get the frustration with Barzal, but for all his issues he's young, he's a great/fast skater, and he's got a lot of skill (especially at transporting the puck and entering the zone). Some concerns with the Isles are that we're getting older, we're slow, we lack skill, and we're not great at moving the puck and zone entries. So I'd be wary about trading him.

 

[Throttle]

That was NOT the proposal. Try to take a breath, read all the words, and take a moment to digest the point before you reply.

Nah, that’s what you wrote.