Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[leeroggy]

Sad!

Come on Bones! Stop with the burner accounts!

 

[Osakahaus]

If you're the Hawks, do you call about Bailey?

 

[periferal]

Come on Bones! Stop with the burner accounts!

Ironically I think it's Lou with the "burner" account.

 

[DerekKingSnipes]

If you're the Hawks, do you call about Bailey?

Isles are probably going to have to buy him out, I doubt anyone is trading for him outright. I do wonder if chance isles could trade him and retain a mill or two which would save them more cap then buying out and also prevent 2nd year of cap penalty.

 

[periferal]

If you're the Hawks, do you call about Bailey?

Of course they should (but no one is taking Bailey unless a nice asset, like a 2nd round pick, is coming with him). They currently have the worst roster I've seen going into an upcoming season that I can remember, but....$37,000,000 in cap space. They should take on as many short-term cap dumps as possible for picks. That is how you approach a rebuild.

 

[Lights911]

Not to mention, if they waive Johnston they lose control over where he goes if he's claimed. Lou is old school enough that he'd probably rather not send him within the division or even conference. If they do deal him, I wonder if CHI would have any interest as protection for Bedard (no, not same line!)?

Who cares where he goes, he’s a nothing 4th liner that can fight. These players haven’t been much in the last 10 years outside of the short resurgence during the Panarin-Wilson situation.

 

[crasherino]

It's a terrible deal. Paying him a million just to sit in the press box. I know it's not a lot of money in terms of the cap, but it's unnecessary. Good for him as he gets security, but I'll never understand why he had to be signed for a four year deal.

The deal isn't bad, per se. Its just that its his deal and Martins deal and Cal's deal and Fasching's deal and Palmieri's deal and Casey's deal and Parise's inevitable deal....etc. (And that's not even factoring in Bailey's deal which will go away one way or another).

Its simply too many contracts for guys that are old or not top 6 players. There is no roster flexibility because we have too many mules on this team. I like all those guys in a vacuum but to have them all on the same team prevents you from adding guys that would make this team better. There is simply no flexibility to go out and sign a forward that will improve this team - there's no roster spot for it.

The only potential improvement we can hope for (but not expect) is to get a RHD that improves on Mayfield. If we sign Orlov or Dumba, this team will be better - at least for next year. Of course, most teams want those guys and can pay more than we can. So its a long shot for sure.

 

[doublechili]

Who cares where he goes, he’s a nothing 4th liner that can fight. These players haven’t been much in the last 10 years outside of the short resurgence during the Panarin-Wilson situation.

As I said, I think Lou may care. That's all that matters, right? If Johnston is waived, he could be on Philly, the NYR, etc.. My guess is Lou wouldn't want that, so he may hesitate to send him through waivers unless he's sure he'd clear.

 

[doublechili]

Isles are probably going to have to buy him out, I doubt anyone is trading for him outright. I do wonder if chance isles could trade him and retain a mill or two which would save them more cap then buying out and also prevent 2nd year of cap penalty.

Of course they should (but no one is taking Bailey unless a nice asset, like a 2nd round pick, is coming with him). They currently have the worst roster I've seen going into an upcoming season that I can remember, but....$37,000,000 in cap space. They should take on as many short-term cap dumps as possible for picks. That is how you approach a rebuild.

I do think there may be a couple of other options besides the first two you mention in your posts:

1. buy Bailey out;
2. pay an asset for a team to take him;
3. trade Bailey for another team's problem contract that fills a NYI need;
4. include Bailey as part of a larger deal to make the cap work.

And there could be a situation where it's a hybrid of #3 and #4. Also, not sure if sending Bailey to the AHL does anything for the cap hit, but I'm thinking Lou wouldn't do that anyway.

 

[MJF]

Sad!

No NHL team is interested in Josh Bailey

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

Presumably it's because he's been a useful enough player to keep in the 23 man roster that it's been worth the 350k worth of caphit over a league min player in that spot, and the caphit hasn't really been a hindrance. If it became a hindrance or he ceased to be more useful than a league min player, they would send him down.

In other words, if it ain't him, it's some other bozo making 900k.

 

[SI]

I do think there may be a couple of other options besides the first two you mention in your posts:

1. buy Bailey out;
2. pay an asset for a team to take him;
3. trade Bailey for another team's problem contract that fills a NYI need;
4. include Bailey as part of a larger deal to make the cap work.

And there could be a situation where it's a hybrid of #3 and #4. Also, not sure if sending Bailey to the AHL does anything for the cap hit, but I'm thinking Lou wouldn't do that anyway.

My last hope is a Bailey for Mrazek deal. Maybe Chicago doesn't need a sweetener.

Of course, Chicago doesn't need to move Mrazek unless they want a stronger goalie in the pipes than Mrazek or does Toronto try to pawn Murray off to them with an asset at that point they could move Mrazek to the Isles for Bailey.

Mrazek cap hit is 3.8 AAV, but is owed 4.4 in actual dollars.
Bailey's cap hit is 5 AAV, but is owed 3.5 in actual dollars.

And possibly Bailey could be traded - if he rebounds - at the TDL w/ 50% retained.

Mrazek could be bought out and the cap hit is .867 K (in 23-24) and 1.467 (in 24-25) total $ owed is 2.95m

Bailey could be bought out at the cap hit is 2.67K (in 23-24) and 1.467 (in 24-25) total $ owed is 2.33 m

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

The deal isn't bad, per se. Its just that its his deal and Martins deal and Cal's deal and Fasching's deal and Palmieri's deal and Casey's deal and Parise's inevitable deal....etc. (And that's not even factoring in Bailey's deal which will go away one way or another).

Its simply too many contracts for guys that are old or not top 6 players. There is no roster flexibility because we have too many mules on this team. I like all those guys in a vacuum but to have them all on the same team prevents you from adding guys that would make this team better. There is simply no flexibility to go out and sign a forward that will improve this team - there's no roster spot for it.

They're filling the team with the best players they have access to. I'm sure if a player who represents an upgrade in the GM's eyes is available, he'll find the means to move contracts. Every GM in the league does the same thing.

 

[periferal]

I do think there may be a couple of other options besides the first two you mention in your posts:

1. buy Bailey out;
2. pay an asset for a team to take him;
3. trade Bailey for another team's problem contract that fills a NYI need;
4. include Bailey as part of a larger deal to make the cap work.

And there could be a situation where it's a hybrid of #3 and #4. Also, not sure if sending Bailey to the AHL does anything for the cap hit, but I'm thinking Lou wouldn't do that anyway.

The Josh Bailey buyout numbers are below. I would much rather buy Bailey out, gain 2.66M this year, and take on 1.6M in 2024-2025...Than give up anything more than a 5th rounder to get an extra 2.33M in cap space this year.

Heck I'd rather trade Pageau and open up 5M that way (along with gaining an asset, move Nelson down to 3rd line center and have Bailey play his wing before wanting to give up an asset to dump a guy who, despite all his flaws and being benched, was still the 9th highest scoring player on the team last year.

​

Josh Bailey - Cap Hit Calculations​

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]SEASON[/TD]
[TD]INITIAL BASE SALARY[/TD]
[TD]INITIAL CAP HIT[/TD]
[TD]SIGNING BONUS[/TD]
[TD]BUYOUT COST[/TD]
[TD]POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS[/TD]
[TD]SAVINGS[/TD]
[TD]CAP HIT (NYI)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2023-24[/TD]
[TD]$3,500,000[/TD]
[TD]$5,000,000[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$1,166,667[/TD]
[TD]$1,166,667[/TD]
[TD]$2,333,333[/TD]
[TD]$2,666,667[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2024-25[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$1,166,667[/TD]
[TD]$1,166,667[/TD]
[TD]-$1,166,667[/TD]
[TD]$1,166,667[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]$3,500,000[/TD]
[TD]$5,000,000[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$2,333,333[/TD]
[TD]$2,333,333[/TD]
[TD]$1,166,667[/TD]
[TD]$3,833,334[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[SI]

Another way around this Bailey thing would be to acquire talent and try unload Bailey in that package, so for example...
Travis Konecny for Top assets and then attach Bailey as a cap dump to make it happen.
If the Flyers get the pieces they want in a deal, but for the deal to happen they need to take on 5m for 1 year. I think they do it.
call it the Car salesman approach, where they'll take your lemon to make a deal happen.

 

[Seph]

In other words, if it ain't him, it's some other bozo making 900k.

Precisely. To save more than few hundred thousand, they'd have to run a 22 man or fewer roster, which has its own downsides/risks, and GMs are unlikely to do unless necessary. At the end of the day, the cap hit difference is pretty negligible, and I'm guessing the intangibles he brings to the locker room as well as being a pretty decent 13-14th forward is deemed worth that tiny amount of extra cap hit.

 

[YearlyLottery]

Another way around this Bailey thing would be to acquire talent and try unload Bailey in that package, so for example...
Travis Konecny for Top assets and then attach Bailey as a cap dump to make it happen.
If the Flyers get the pieces they want in a deal, but for the deal to happen they need to take on 5m for 1 year. I think they do it.
call it the Car salesman approach, where they'll take your lemon to make a deal happen.

We would need to assume that one of the other 30 teams are not giving a similar package without cap package though.

 

[Throttle]

The Josh Bailey buyout numbers are below. I would much rather buy Bailey out, gain 2.66M this year, and take on 1.6M in 2024-2025...Than give up anything more than a 5th rounder to get an extra 2.33M in cap space this year.

Heck I'd rather trade Pageau and open up 5M that way (along with gaining an asset, move Nelson down to 3rd line center and have Bailey play his wing before wanting to give up an asset to dump a guy who, despite all his flaws and being benched, was still the 9th highest scoring player on the team last year.

​

Josh Bailey - Cap Hit Calculations​

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]SEASON[/TD]
[TD]INITIAL BASE SALARY[/TD]
[TD]INITIAL CAP HIT[/TD]
[TD]SIGNING BONUS[/TD]
[TD]BUYOUT COST[/TD]
[TD]POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS[/TD]
[TD]SAVINGS[/TD]
[TD]CAP HIT (NYI)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2023-24[/TD]
[TD]$3,500,000[/TD]
[TD]$5,000,000[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$1,166,667[/TD]
[TD]$1,166,667[/TD]
[TD]$2,333,333[/TD]
[TD]$2,666,667[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2024-25[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$1,166,667[/TD]
[TD]$1,166,667[/TD]
[TD]-$1,166,667[/TD]
[TD]$1,166,667[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]$3,500,000[/TD]
[TD]$5,000,000[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$2,333,333[/TD]
[TD]$2,333,333[/TD]
[TD]$1,166,667[/TD]
[TD]$3,833,334[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

The proposal is to put a back-to-back 35 goal scorer making $6M playing 3rd line center? He’s essentially the best forward on the team and most cost efficient in cap/production, but gets buried on the 3rd line? Wow.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

The proposal is to put a back-to-back 35 goal scorer making $6M playing 3rd line center? He’s essentially the best forward on the team and most cost efficient in cap/production, but gets buried on the 3rd line? Wow.

Gotta save those 5th round picks.

 

[SI]

We would need to assume that one of the other 30 teams are not giving a similar package without cap package though.

Of course, but with most of the league strangled by the cap- bad contracts may need to be taken back to facilitate a deal.

The media is whipping up that this will be a crazy off-season, I just don't see it... many teams will have to simply stand pat or buy out bad contracts, they certainly won't be able to add.

 

[doublechili]

The proposal is to put a back-to-back 35 goal scorer making $6M playing 3rd line center? He’s essentially the best forward on the team and most cost efficient in cap/production, but gets buried on the 3rd line? Wow.

If they dealt JGP and kept Barzal and Nelson at C, then I think the idea would be to roll 3 equal lines with Barzal, Horvat and Nelson at C, so no one would really be a 3C. VGK went with Eichel, Stephenson and Karlsson at C this year and they were all under 20 minutes per game average ice time. But they killed teams with depth in the playoffs and maybe those guys were a little fresher at the end. Someone's also going to be getting time against the 3rd D pair and weaker forwards. IDK - it's unconventional but maybe not totally crazy. Especially when we lack elite talent on the wings.

 

[LeapOnOver]

If they dealt JGP and kept Barzal and Nelson at C, then I think the idea would be to roll 3 equal lines with Barzal, Horvat and Nelson at C, so no one would really be a 3C. VGK went with Eichel, Stephenson and Karlsson at C this year and they were all under 20 minutes per game average ice time. But they killed teams with depth in the playoffs and maybe those guys were a little fresher at the end. Someone's also going to be getting time against the 3rd D pair and weaker forwards. IDK - it's unconventional but maybe not totally crazy. Especially when we lack elite talent on the wings.

I have no problem with what you are suggesting. Too many old school hockey fans still throwing around 1st line, 2nd line, blah blah blah. Honestly, rolling those guys at center with three lines and not playing the 4th line as much (they are all aging anyway) seems like a much better formula for winning than the 4 lines that worked for the Isles of yesteryear.

The only issue I see with Pageau is that if LL thought Horvat was used too much at the end of the season, can't imagine him not being used more being the only good faceoff guy left. Honestly, if the Isles ever figure out the PP, Horvat and Pageau's faceoff ability will be integral for that to succeed. My gut tells me that Barzal is just gonna have to learn how to play wing. He hasn't shown to be a center that can elevate those around him and the neverending search for chemistry with him actually does have to have an end. Stick him on wing since that is the position we seem to have a hard time filling.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

If they dealt JGP and kept Barzal and Nelson at C, then I think the idea would be to roll 3 equal lines with Barzal, Horvat and Nelson at C, so no one would really be a 3C. VGK went with Eichel, Stephenson and Karlsson at C this year and they were all under 20 minutes per game average ice time. But they killed teams with depth in the playoffs and maybe those guys were a little fresher at the end. Someone's also going to be getting time against the 3rd D pair and weaker forwards. IDK - it's unconventional but maybe not totally crazy. Especially when we lack elite talent on the wings.

Isles don't have the firepower to do that.

Also, Karlsson is clearly a 3c at this point. Nelson is a 35 goal scorer.

If you're adamant about using Barzal at center, you might as well keep Pageau for defensive and penalty killing duties, and trade Nelson. Not only would you get a much better return, you'd have a more natural hierarchy at center.

 

[Throttle]

Isles don't have the firepower to do that.

Also, Karlsson is clearly a 3c at this point. Nelson is a 35 goal scorer.

If you're adamant about using Barzal at center, you might as well keep Pageau for defensive and penalty killing duties, and trade Nelson. Not only would you get a much better return, you'd have a more natural hierarchy at center.

For a team that needs goals, trading Nelson makes little sense. JGP is cheaper than Karlsson (and I’ve advocated for acquiring him, but Vegas wants to keep him) as a 3C.

Really, the odd guy out is the one everyone keeps trying to solve for. If anything, trade him for a winger and/or D-man to rebalance the roster and everything will settle down on the ice too.

 

[LeapOnOver]

Isles don't have the firepower to do that.

Also, Karlsson is clearly a 3c at this point. Nelson is a 35 goal scorer.

If you're adamant about using Barzal at center, you might as well keep Pageau for defensive and penalty killing duties, and trade Nelson. Not only would you get a much better return, you'd have a more natural hierarchy at center.

I get where you are coming from but don't trades like that usually happen from a team that has a player like Nelson TO a team like the Islanders? I mean, the scenarios seem to me to be something like:
Nelson for player of equal skill and term that plays a different position - If it's a winger why not just move Nelson to wing. If it's a defenseman, we are losing a ton of offense most likely.
Nelson for a 2nd or 3rd line player and prospect - doesn't seem like the win now moves that Lou is making.
Nelson for prospect and pick - see above (unless it's going to result in another swap).

Probably same thing can be said for JGP, but guess you just have to decide who's abilities are more lacking on the roster. Feel like a lot of what JGP brings to the table coexist on the roster, but Isles don't have a 35 goal scorer other than Nelson. Only other one that comes close is Lee and Horvat and Horvat's goal scoring ability should come with tempered expectations.