Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[eoin92]

Are you expecting another pandemic/flat cap situation coming up?



I don't want him at all.

1) It took him years to realize the fancy stats aren't going to win by themselves.
2) He signed Tavares for huge money when it didn't fill a need at all, causing them to lose a much more affordable Kadri.
3) Has a very bad track record with negotiations. All of his star players received top dollar and the best terms available.
4) Tried to pull one over on Shanahan, overvaluing his position, and was subsequently kicked to the curb.

What does anyone like about him other than his love for fancy stats and the "new" style of play? Other GMs do the same thing and are way more successful.

Not to mention, all those huge deals he gave out are buyout proof. Base salaries of $700k, then all bonus money.

 

[SI]

Why?

It’s just a hunch.

Ottawa gave up a high pick - 7OA pick 2022 plus other picks.

The 2023 draft is way stronger one than 2024.

The Red Wings could send the 9 OA pick straight up for DeBrincat and I think Ottawa would blink. Wings have another pick in ‘23 - the Isles pick. A pick up like DeBrincat could propel Detroit into the mix.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

I was a proponent of flipping Pulock before he signed his new deal but now? I don’t see it or get it.

One or two years ago there was a reasonable hope that Dobson would ascend to a #1RHD slot. While it’s still possible it’s now more of a long shot than a likely outcome.

With Mayfield likely gone, no in house certainties for the #3RHD slot and an expected minimal bump to the cap, how exactly does losing our #1RHD help?

This team is built on defense and goaltending. Losing Pulock and presumably Mayfield leaves us 2 holes on the RHD side with no certainty that Dobson will be anything more than a #2Dman. Regardless of the assets returned that makes the overall team worse.

Ya, I dont see them moving one of their 4 defenseman when we are needing a couple ourselves...

I understand peeps want an upgrade with the forward group, but that will likely have to come from moving Bailey and JGP and using the cap space or getting creative WITHOUT moving one of Pulock, Pelech, Dobson or Romanov...

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

It’s just a hunch.

Oh. My hunch is that they want to compete next season.

Are you expecting another pandemic/flat cap situation coming up?



I don't want him at all.

1) It took him years to realize the fancy stats aren't going to win by themselves.
2) He signed Tavares for huge money when it didn't fill a need at all, causing them to lose a much more affordable Kadri.
3) Has a very bad track record with negotiations. All of his star players received top dollar and the best terms available.
4) Tried to pull one over on Shanahan, overvaluing his position, and was subsequently kicked to the curb.

What does anyone like about him other than his love for fancy stats and the "new" style of play? Other GMs do the same thing and are way more successful.

If he were to come here on a secondary role, 2-4 become non-factors. The first one would actually be a positive.

 

[The Wahligator]

I’m actually coming around to the idea of Dubas as GM with Lou remaining as President. A lot of Dubas’ shortcomings are Lou’s strengths and vice versa.

 

[WangMustGo]

I was a proponent of flipping Pulock before he signed his new deal but now? I don’t see it or get it.

One or two years ago there was a reasonable hope that Dobson would ascend to a #1RHD slot. While it’s still possible it’s now more of a long shot than a likely outcome.

With Mayfield likely gone, no in house certainties for the #3RHD slot and an expected minimal bump to the cap, how exactly does losing our #1RHD help?

This team is built on defense and goaltending. Losing Pulock and presumably Mayfield leaves us 2 holes on the RHD side with no certainty that Dobson will be anything more than a #2Dman. Regardless of the assets returned that makes the overall team worse.

It makes sense if the asset cominf back is Marner. Lou would still need to find capspace to sign a good UFA defenseman (Severson?)

 

[PK Cronin]

If he were to come here on a secondary role, 2-4 become non-factors. The first one would actually be a positive.

The question is, has he learned enough from the Toronto experience to not repeat the same mistakes? That true of all second job GMs. This Shanahan thing really irks me though and makes me think he hasn't.

In a smaller market where he isn't given the opportunity to sign big stars for massive contracts he might do better.

 

[MJF]

The question is, has he learned enough from the Toronto experience to not repeat the same mistakes? That true of all second job GMs. This Shanahan thing really irks me though and makes me think he hasn't.

In a smaller market where he isn't given the opportunity to sign big stars for massive contracts he might do better.

The only life preserver I'll throw Dubas is, I wonder how much he was dictated to from above to sign Tavares. That signing alone destroyed the salary structure for what was a good up and coming team. The moves he made after killing the Leafs' cap were practically reactionary (letting go of Andersen, going after aging vets for grit, etc).

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

As Islander fans we need to accept the reality of Lou, now that it has all but been confirmed he is coming back. He really isn't that difficult of a GM to figure out.

Sure, we can make a trade or two but more than likely they won't include one of our 4 blueliners when the real focus (IMO) is going to be on the back end already and finding a backup goalie.

What we badly need to happen firstly however are these two things:

1) Need the cap to come in greater than just 83.5 million. Some reports have it possibly increasing 3-4 million, which would mean 85.5-86.5, but for the below exercise; I would be happy with 85

2) Need to trade Josh Bailey- period. Yes, I realize it is costing an asset to move him, but the 5 million in cap space (as opposed to less than half that with buying him out) is too great a need. It "shouldn't" cost a 1st round pick (since he is only owed 3.5 million in cash and still capable as a 3rd/4th line guy who will get you 40 points) but I could see a 2nd needing to be added here to get the cap relief

Then you move on to these two things:

3) Re-sign Zach Parise to similar one year deal- He says he wants to continue to play and he is still getting a huge payout from Minny, so we should be able to get him inked. On a team that lack scoring, his capable 20 goals is needed.

4) Sign both RFA's in Oliver Wahlstrom and Samuel Bolduc- We are simply too thin with talent not to bring them both back and we should be able to get both inked for 2-years and in the 900K- 1.1 million range

With a cap of 85 million, trading Bailey AND getting those 3 players inked for <2.75 million we will then see where we are at.

I dont think anyone here has a problem with one of Aho/Bolduc being in the 7th blueliner mix or Fasching/Holmstrom being in the 13th forward mix.....so this is where we would be:

Lee (7)- Horvat (8.5)- Barzal (9.15)
OPEN- Nelson (6)- Palmieri (5) LW/RW
Parise (.8)- JGP (5)- Wahlstrom (1)
Martin (1.5)- Cizikas (2.5)- Clutterbuck (1.75)

Fasching/Holmstrom (.8)

Pelech (5.75)- Dobson (4)
OPEN- Pulock (6.15)
Romanov (2.5)- OPEN

Aho/Bolduc (.85)

Sorokin (4)- OPEN

Cap Hit- $72.2 million

Cap Space- $12.8 million

Islanders will have roughly 13 million and need 4 more key spots on the team and they will have to prioritize them. Trading away any of the above starters will open another spot up....

I would probably prioritize it like this:

1) Puck-moving LD - 5 million
2) Other RD- 3 million
3) Forward for second line- 3 million
4) Backup Goaltender- 2 million

As much as I would like for a more creative scenario to create itself, this is probably the best we can hope for. A full season of Barzal/Horvat; hopefully Dobson, Wahlstrom and another young player taking a big step forward and a huge improvement on the PP....

 

[periferal]

The pipe dreams around here even suggesting it's a possibility for the Isles to acquire any of these name/expensive players shows the level of uninformed denial a good section of this fanbase is in.

 

[The Real JT]

The pipe dreams around here even suggesting it's a possibility for the Isles to acquire any of these name/expensive players shows the level of uninformed denial a good section of this fanbase is in.

That’s a bit harsh but the truth hurts.

No joke but the only way around that is for Lou to throw even more #1 picks or someone like Dufour, Maggio and/or Bolduc into a trade.

I wouldn’t put it past him.

 

[SI]

Oh. My hunch is that they want to compete next season.


If he were to come here on a secondary role, 2-4 become non-factors. The first one would actually be a positive.

He becomes a UFA after this season, so if he lets them know that he plans to go to frees agency then, they will look to move him.

They could make a hockey trade with a comparable player, but they could also look to recoup assets and then use that $ to sign a UFA.

 

[YearlyLottery]

The pipe dreams around here even suggesting it's a possibility for the Isles to acquire any of these name/expensive players shows the level of uninformed denial a good section of this fanbase is in.

Didn't you say the same thing last offseason? They then acquired Horvat and signed him to a long term deal.

 

[periferal]

Didn't you say the same thing last offseason? They then acquired Horvat and signed him to a long term deal.

Horvat made 4.125M/year until the end of last season. That's a far cry from talking about adding an 8-12M/year guy now (with Horvat's new 8.5M deal kicking in next season and significantly less assets due to that Horvat trade).


And when I see Bailey being included in trades as if he has anything but negative value I both laugh at the post and cry for the state of the franchise.

 

[The Real JT]

Didn't you say the same thing last offseason? They then acquired Horvat and signed him to a long term deal.

Now would not be the time to speak of that deal in a complimentary manner. One day perhaps. We can hope.

 

[Lek]

Are you expecting another pandemic/flat cap situation coming up?



I don't want him at all.

1) It took him years to realize the fancy stats aren't going to win by themselves.
2) He signed Tavares for huge money when it didn't fill a need at all, causing them to lose a much more affordable Kadri.
3) Has a very bad track record with negotiations. All of his star players received top dollar and the best terms available.
4) Tried to pull one over on Shanahan, overvaluing his position, and was subsequently kicked to the curb.

What does anyone like about him other than his love for fancy stats and the "new" style of play? Other GMs do the same thing and are way more successful.

Thank You.

 

[SI]

The pipe dreams around here even suggesting it's a possibility for the Isles to acquire any of these name/expensive players shows the level of uninformed denial a good section of this fanbase is in.

You are so severe, dude.

Let me break this down for you -

This is a message board - where fans come to discuss, play GM, and pitch up ideas. Some of those ideas (or most) are in the hypothetical. And it’s fun to hypothesize and discuss.

You on the other hand come with an assault rifle to a food fight.


No one is pitching up Bailey in an asset gaining trade proposals - the posters here are pretty well-informed - maybe a little too critical at times and suffer from the grass is greener type of thinking.

We all know the most likely scenario this season will be status quo. The Cap, contracts, and lack of key assets will keep things as they were for the most part.

But, I also recognize there are things you simply cannot predict - whether that is player development, I.e, Tage Thompson breakout, or a move by GM that you didn’t see coming.

Like @YearlyLottery suggested - I don’t believe any of us could have predicted a move like Horvat.

I try not to think in an absolutes, especially with a GM like Lou- he will surprise - whether those surprises are good or bad is irrelevant.

 

[JKP]

I’m actually coming around to the idea of Dubas as GM with Lou remaining as President. A lot of Dubas’ shortcomings are Lou’s strengths and vice versa.

I still don’t get what strengths he has? And his deals apparently had Shanny’s fingerprints or he wasn’t allowed to do things because of Shanny.

Stay away from him. Let some other smart owner see what this wonder kid can actually do when not gifted a young core of Matthews, Marner and Nylander… I’m guessing not much.

 

[NC 1972]

Two years left isn't a problem for me either. The only part that really gives me pause is how well Pulock played against Carolina, he was a beast and I'd hate to lose that. But Marner is an elite winger and I think would slot better next to Horvat than Barzal. He's also a beast on the PP, the difference between him and Barzal here is huge -- Marner could really help turn that around.

And if we are being frank, two years is about when we would have to blow up the core anyway if we haven't won anything, so Marner's contract length could be viewed a bit as a positive, especially with two notably longer contracts going the other way. And if we do win anything before then, then of course it was a good deal, and Marner would likely consider resigning.

Unfortunately you have to give to get right wether it’s Marner or Nylander or DeBricanti someone will want either Dobson or Pulock and our defense isn’t all that strong anymore and if we are losing Mayfield it will get ugly real quick. We don’t have enough depth anymore and our prospect pool is very shallow.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

The question is, has he learned enough from the Toronto experience to not repeat the same mistakes? That true of all second job GMs. This Shanahan thing really irks me though and makes me think he hasn't.

In a smaller market where he isn't given the opportunity to sign big stars for massive contracts he might do better.

The thing is, from what I read, it doesn't bother me that much. The way I see it, it's two people that had a breakdown of trust. Two guys playing cat and mouse with each other, not revealing their true intentions and trying to get a sense on what the other is thinking without just being forthright about it. Neither party seemed very mature in how they handled it.

I agree about the smaller market. In a secondary role, he would probably be an asset to someone. I think he'd be an asset to the Islanders, especially with Lou being a no BS type of guy. Toronto is an awfully big fishbowl for a young GM to get his feet wet. If you believe he's at all a competent person, you'd have to think this experience would be beneficial.

 

[Sparksrus3]

There are so many possible trades that could be considered between NYI & Toronto involving so many possible players that it would be impossible to list them all. Obviously the main targets for NYI would be Nylander or Marner. Potential targets for TOR would include Barzal, Pageau, Pelech, Pulock, Romanov, or Dobson.

Other players would have to be involved to make things work. .

yeah like Sorokin

 

[xECK29x]

The pipe dreams around here even suggesting it's a possibility for the Isles to acquire any of these name/expensive players shows the level of uninformed denial a good section of this fanbase is in.

Yes let’s turn this into a flame war between sects of posters who are just expression their opinions, great way to start the summer.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

Yes let’s turn this into a flame war between sects of posters who are just expression their opinions, great way to start the summer.

Self-loathing. It's a hell of a drug.

 

[Isles72]

how much cap space do the isles actually have if Bailey gets moved , Varlamov/Mayfield are not in the plans ?

I realize they need to be cautious enough to have space for Sorokin (my guess 9.5 x 8 )for 24-25

 

[The Real JT]

Self-loathing. It's a hell of a drug.

Self loathing is a theoretical drug.

Thinking this team is an offseason tweak away from becoming a legitimate Cup contender is closer to a real drug than that. A hallucinogenic one.