A trade involving Sorokin doesn't take place with the current GM.
Just want to put that out there, for better or worse.
I do agree with you about how precarious the situation is with a window of competition that doesn't really appear to be there and that Winnipeg and Nashville are in a similar boat on that front.
As much as it is uninpiring for some, the current GM will be busier this summer figuring out the following, in no particular order:
- How is Bailey buried or gotten rid of nicely in a manner that doesn't cost anything but money?
- How do we find the right role and more ice time for Holmstrom and a returning Wahlstrom while still having the contracts of Clutterbuck, Martin, and Johnston as part of the equation?
- Do you invest in re-upping Mayfield or replace him for cheaper on the UFA market with righty Dman who has a more mobile, puck-moving game?
- Do you manage to re-sign Engvall for some decent change or do existing contracts preclude you from doing so?
- Can you keep Parise in the fold in some manner?
- How much is Varlamov part of the family as a back-up or does this position have to be made use of to linder the cap hit moving forward? Might it even be the way in which you dispose of Bailey?
- Can the Aho/Bolduc/Salo grouping be upgraded on via free agency or the trading of one or more of these players?
Notice, I'm not even mentioning any moves behind the bench, which, uh, is a huge question moving forward.
I just don't think we see Lou removing Lambert. Lambert doesn't go unless a new GM comes in and Lou is out entirely (i.e. isn't still president of hockey operations).
Also, I'm not even going into the moving of pieces like Pageau, Palmieri, Cizikas, etc. If Lou has signed these guys, much less traded for and then signed these guys, I'm not seeing him move any while he's the GM.
THE CAP
I believe the first shoe to drop will be what the CAP # for next year will be. Most are assuming the player's debt will not be paid off by the end of this season, so 1 M increase is the most likely. In the event that the debt is paid off, then the Cap can rise to almost 88m. There is the outside chance that the players Association can meet with the league and make an agreement to increase the CAP even if the debt is not fully paid - the players will have to concede on something, but it will not be the escrow.
Bailey
I believe Bailey had played his last game as an Islander. How do they part ways? Simplest can be attaching an asset, like a 2nd rounder in 2024 and trading him to a team like Arizona or Chicago. A
buyout still carries a 2.66 CAP hit for this season and 1M the following. Receiving a
bad contract in return, like Mrazek or Murray or Nemeth, who all make more actual dollars than Bailey, but have a slightly less cap hit. These contracts carry a lower cap hit when bought out and there is no emotional baggage to carry if you send these guys to Bridgeport for the season. *The final creative way is to actually go for a player with a high cap hit but can still play and simply needs a change of scenery. The finances make a deal for this player very complicated, so offsetting the cap hit with a bad contract like Bailey makes it happen... i.e. Karlsson, Provorov, Boeser, Benn, etc.
Depth
Injuries happen, especially to the likes of Palmieri and Clutterbuck, so having Holmstrom and Wahlstrom on the 23-man roster is a good thing but it all depends on if Parise wants one more kick at the can and the CAP. If the cap is tight, then I think Johnston starts the season on LTIR with some ailment or he is waived. If Fasching and Holmstrom are the 13th and 14th F's it will speak volumes of the team's depth. I guess it is also worth mentioning Holmstrom is waiver exempt next season, so if he must start in Bridgeport he won't be lost.
Mayfield
Most likely Lou resigns Mayfield. It would mean more of the same problems this year. It is not wise to not resign him and a sign a journey man to replace his 19-20 minutes. Like most, I would like the d man that replaces Mayfield to be a player who can transition the puck and play in all situations. Of course, it does depend on how Lou and the staff feel about the likes of Aho, Bolduc, or Salo to develop and be that D man who can help in the transition. If it were me, I move on, only if I can land a younger, more skilled blueliner in Free agency, Gavrikov, or via trade in Provorov.
Then play Aho on the right as the 6th d man or sign Burroughs or Schenn to do so.
Engvall
Not sure it is wise to give a top 9 player like Engvall 3-4m a season. The sample size is too small, yet I was encouraged by what I saw and loved having his speed and puck-carrying ability in the lineup. If they could move Bailey, then it is a very likely chance Lou resigns Engvall, but that means no other major upgrades to F group... unless Palmieri is moved and Lou upgrades RW2 position with someone like Tarasenko.
Varlamov and the Cap
If the Cap is rising, then a 2-year deal at 2m sounds great. If not, then the Isles may be forced to move on and sign a David Rittich to caddy for Sorokin.
