Not sure why people keep putting up top lines that have Barzal/Lee?winger (Tank, etc) leaving no one to do faceoffs again.
No, it is more likely than not that they try the Barzal/Horvat combo again unless they move Nelson off of center and put him on the wing.
It is very unfortunate we didn't move some players at the deadline instead of going for it when we had little to no chance of getting out of the East much less winning the damn thing. But we got into 6 games, so those who wanted to see some playoff games got their wish.
Now we need to be realistic and "hope" for some things to really turn our way...
1) First and foremost is the cap coming in at 84 million plus, which would be ideal if it came in closer to $85 million. That isn't too farfetched since they were projecting 83.5 and projecting 88 for 2024-25. I think NHL owners would be fine if the 83.5 was to be a little higher (85) even if it meant only 87 (still a 2 million increase) for the following season. Hell, even 84.5 million would help us immensely. 81.5 to 84.5 to 87.5 would be 3 million increases and a tempered (half million) off their ending projection.
2) Need to re-sign both Parise and Wahlstrom for under $1 million. Oliver's RFA isn't going to cost over that and Zach is still getting handsomely paid by the Wild, so both of these "should" easily be done since the later already announced his attention to play another season.
With Fasching re-signed and adding those two (1.7-1.8 million), we will have 15 forwards and 5 blueliners and 1 goalie signed for about 79 million in cap, leaving 5-6 or so left and we need D desperately and a backup goalie before even worrying about upgrading our forward group or adding someone. Bury two of them (and for this exercise, I make it Johnston and Holmstrom) and you are at 77, leaving you closer to 7 million in cap space.
3) Then comes the decision on Josh Bailey and "ideally" he is put on LTIR and we have $12 million in cap space to work with. That is truly what we have to hope for, but either way we need his $5 million in cap savings. He is only due $3.5 million cash on his final year, but it would have been nice to have acquired an asset or two at the deadline (sellers) we could be using here to unload him- now we have to use what few we have left. Either way, we need that off the books. Buying him out has to be weighed there, and I don't like that option really; not when we need at least 2 more blueliners.
I dont think anyone here has a problem with Fasching/Holmstrom as the 13th/14th forward or Aho (along with a veteran signing) as the 7th/8th defenseman.
So after occurring the $5 million in savings with Bailey (likely via trade but hopefully LTIR) we would be here:
Anders Lee (7.0)- Bo Horvat (8.5)- Matthew Barzal (9.15)
Kyle Palmieri (5.0)- Brock Nelson (6.0)- OPEN
Zach Parise (.8)- Jean-Gabriel Pageau (5.0)- Oliver Wahlstrom (.95)
Matt Martin (1.5)- Casey Cizikas (2.5)- Cal Clutterbuck (1.75)
Hudson Fasching/Simon Holmstrom (.8)
OPEN- Ryan Pulock (6.15)
Adam Pelech (5.75)- Noah Dobson (4.0)
Alexander Romanov (2.5)- OPEN
Sebastian Aho/OPEN (.8)
Ilya Sorokin (4.0)
OPEN
This is being realistic, honestly. Norway is exactly right, especially if it costs us assets to move Bailey, in that trading anyone else is not going to be easy. Hell, just moving Josh in itself will be hard enough.
You can't afford to move Nelson because you need his scoring. Palmieri will be hard to move because he has been too inconsistent and has 2 years left on his deal and while JPG has more value; he has 3 years left and one could argue he simply isn't a top 6 forward which means he is overpaid. Lee isn't going anywhere at that cap hit and years left either....
"Maybe" you can find a trade that sends Kyle or Jean-Gabriel for an equally "not very good" contract blueliner, but more than likely you won't.
So, the question remains who can you get for $12 million in cap space??
A) A puck-moving D (preferably on the top line) who is a bargain (4 million)
B) A third line RD (2.5 million)
C) A bargain top 6 (at least arguable) forward (3.5 million)
D) A backup goalie (2 million)
And then a veteran defenseman for the minimum.
This is being realistic....