Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[PK Cronin]

Don't look now but The Athletic has Sebastian Aho as our most valuable defenseman. Moneypuck has him at #2. Obviously the analytics don't consider the eye test and the clear specific plays where you can see him get physically moved off the puck - but we are out chancing opponents over the long run with him on the ice. Here are the market values for our D according to The Athletic

Aho - 6.3M
Dobson - 4.9M
Pelech - 4.7M
Pulock - 4.0M
Mayfield - 3.0M
Romanov - 1.7M (this was negative last time I checked, a huge jump)

These models always prioritize offensive production as it's easier to clearly create a scoring chance than to stop one... but still an interesting development

And that right there is the prime example of why those analytics are untrustworthy.

 

[xECK29x]

Don't look now but The Athletic has Sebastian Aho as our most valuable defenseman. Moneypuck has him at #2. Obviously the analytics don't consider the eye test and the clear specific plays where you can see him get physically moved off the puck - but we are out chancing opponents over the long run with him on the ice. Here are the market values for our D according to The Athletic

Aho - 6.3M
Dobson - 4.9M
Pelech - 4.7M
Pulock - 4.0M
Mayfield - 3.0M
Romanov - 1.7M (this was negative last time I checked, a huge jump)

These models always prioritize offensive production as it's easier to clearly create a scoring chance than to stop one... but still an interesting development

Trade him to Carolina for a first or some shit

 

[doublechili]

Don't look now but The Athletic has Sebastian Aho as our most valuable defenseman. Moneypuck has him at #2. Obviously the analytics don't consider the eye test and the clear specific plays where you can see him get physically moved off the puck - but we are out chancing opponents over the long run with him on the ice. Here are the market values for our D according to The Athletic

Aho - 6.3M
Dobson - 4.9M
Pelech - 4.7M
Pulock - 4.0M
Mayfield - 3.0M
Romanov - 1.7M (this was negative last time I checked, a huge jump)

These models always prioritize offensive production as it's easier to clearly create a scoring chance than to stop one... but still an interesting development

Here's my latest ranking:

The Athletic Analytics: negative $6.5M

 

[impaaaaaact]

And that right there is the prime example of why those analytics are untrustworthy.

Or conversely, the super obvious plays where he falls down or gets knocked off the puck once every couple of games don’t completely negate the little unsung plays he makes that keep the puck out of our zone to begin with. If we’re both out-chancing and out-scoring opponents when he’s on the ice, isn’t that a net positive? Not saying he’s our best defenseman, he’s obviously not getting matched up the same as the other dudes on the team… but it’s interesting for me to see for sure

 

[eoin92]

Here's my latest ranking:

The Athletic Analytics: negative $6.5M

Wow, that’s up from last time.

 

[MarsTBOW]

When everyone is healthy - except Wahlstrom who is out for the year - how do you line them up?

For me -
Lee Horvat Barzal
Parise Nelson Palmieri
Engvall Pageau Bailey
Martin Cizikas Clutterbuck

Holmstrom and Fasching step in for Engvall Bailey or Clutterbuck in case of injury or poor play.
Johnston for Martin

I think I start like this.

No Pageau today in practice....
Bailey Back On The Top Line!!!!
Lambert reunited the identity line:


Anders Lee-Bo Horvat-Josh Bailey
Zach Parise-Brock Nelson-Kyle Palmieri
Matt Martin-Casey Cizikas-Cal Clutterbuck
Simon Holmstrom/Ross Johnston-Pierre Engvall-Hudson Fasching



Adam Pelech-Scott Mayfield
Alexander Romanov-Ryan Pulock
Sebastian Aho-Noah Dobson


Ilya Sorokin
Semyon Varlamov

 

[YearlyLottery]

Or conversely, the super obvious plays where he falls down or gets knocked off the puck once every couple of games don’t completely negate the little unsung plays he makes that keep the puck out of our zone to begin with. If we’re both out-chancing and out-scoring opponents when he’s on the ice, isn’t that a net positive? Not saying he’s our best defenseman, he’s obviously not getting matched up the same as the other dudes on the team… but it’s interesting for me to see for sure

Aho has grown on me quite a bit this season. That being said he is still a third pairing defenseman at best that will get overpowered during the playoffs.

Does anyone remember that Vis-Hickey pairing we were all going crazy about in the regular season one year? Once that pairing went into the playoffs against Pittsburgh they were man handled.

During the playoffs this season I think we will see Dobson and Aho struggle massively in the defensive zone. Dobson I feel will develop from it, but Aho I think will forever be a slightly better offensive version of Hickey. Which again.... Come playoff time he was never dependable.

 

[Zeeker]

Aho has grown on me quite a bit this season. That being said he is still a third pairing defenseman at best that will get overpowered during the playoffs.

Does anyone remember that Vis-Hickey pairing we were all going crazy about in the regular season one year? Once that pairing went into the playoffs against Pittsburgh they were man handled.

During the playoffs this season I think we will see Dobson and Aho struggle massively in the defensive zone. Dobson I feel will develop from it, but Aho I think will forever be a slightly better offensive version of Hickey. Which again.... Come playoff time he was never dependable.

Game 3 OT Hickey vs Florida would beg to differ

 

[doublechili]

Anders Lee-Bo Horvat-Josh Bailey

I don't hate that line.

Lee-Tavares-Bailey was a good line. We'll see....

 

[The Real JT]

That is expressed here daily, even for those who support the going for it position.

Face it, we have misused the word to mean more than it is.

If my dissatisfaction bothers you, simply don't read it and move on...

The vitriol against those who aren’t true believers has gotten out of hand.

I’m a fan too and while I think we’re good enough to get the #7 or #8 spot, we’ve got way too many holes to think it goes any further than that.

This team is demonstrably weaker than the teams we had for the 2 playoff runs. We have players currently getting major minutes that wouldn’t have seen any ice time at all on those teams. Meanwhile some of those who were around for the last runs have regressed. Sorokin is the wild card. He’s a stud but it ends there.

 

[SI]

The vitriol against those who aren’t true believers has gotten out of hand.

I’m a fan too and while I think we’re good enough to get the #7 or #8 spot, we’ve got way too many holes to think it goes any further than that.

This team is demonstrably weaker than the teams we had for the 2 playoff runs. We have players currently getting major minutes that wouldn’t have seen any ice time at all on those teams. Meanwhile some of those who were around for the last runs have regressed. Sorokin is the wild card. He’s a stud but it ends there.

I would argue with that - 1st Cup run before Covid - team was struggling mightily. Also, Sorokin > Varlamov too.

The truth is posters can bitch about not selling and pine about the roster and coach not being good enough, but some posters don’t want to read that shit right now - not in the middle of a intense playoff race. Save that shit for the off-season.

And this indignation when posters get called out - is silly. This is a message board - posters can post whatever their opinion is and the same posters should expect that others will disagree.

Also, this opposing of two factions is also quite silly. posters hold varied opinions across different topics.

And finally, this roster doesn’t have to win the Stanley Cup to have a successful season - Imagine a first round match up against the Devils - a 1st since 88 -89? A 2nd match against the Rangers- first since 94?

I would sign up for that post season even if it didn’t mean a cup.

 

[Zeeker]

I would argue with that - 1st Cup run before Covid - team was struggling mightily. Also, Sorokin > Varlamov too.

The truth is posters can bitch about not selling and pine about the roster and coach not being good enough, but some posters don’t want to read that shit right now - not in the middle of a intense playoff race. Save that shit for the off-season.

And this indignation when posters get called out - is silly. This is a message board - posters can post whatever their opinion is and the same posters should expect that others will disagree.

Also, this opposing of two factions is also quite silly. posters hold varied opinions across different topics.

And finally, this roster doesn’t have to win the Stanley Cup to have a successful season - Imagine a first round match up against the Devils - a 1st since 88 -89? A 2nd match against the Rangers- first since 94?

I would sign up for that post season even if it didn’t mean a cup.

I notice you don’t mention a third round. I’d rather collapse in epic fashion and miss the playoffs than lose to the Rangers in the second round

 

[The Real JT]

I would argue with that - 1st Cup run before Covid - team was struggling mightily. Also, Sorokin > Varlamov too.

The truth is posters can bitch about not selling and pine about the roster and coach not being good enough, but some posters don’t want to read that shit right now - not in the middle of a intense playoff race. Save that shit for the off-season.

And this indignation when posters get called out - is silly. This is a message board - posters can post whatever their opinion is and the same posters should expect that others will disagree.

Also, this opposing of two factions is also quite silly. posters hold varied opinions across different topics.

And finally, this roster doesn’t have to win the Stanley Cup to have a successful season - Imagine a first round match up against the Devils - a 1st since 88 -89? A 2nd match against the Rangers- first since 94?

I would sign up for that post season even if it didn’t mean a cup.

Now I get it. How’d I do?

 

[SI]

I notice you don’t mention a third round. I’d rather collapse in epic fashion and miss the playoffs than lose to the Rangers in the second round

Oh, no they take the second round!!!

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

Don't look now but The Athletic has Sebastian Aho as our most valuable defenseman. Moneypuck has him at #2. Obviously the analytics don't consider the eye test and the clear specific plays where you can see him get physically moved off the puck - but we are out chancing opponents over the long run with him on the ice. Here are the market values for our D according to The Athletic

Aho - 6.3M
Dobson - 4.9M
Pelech - 4.7M
Pulock - 4.0M
Mayfield - 3.0M
Romanov - 1.7M (this was negative last time I checked, a huge jump)

These models always prioritize offensive production as it's easier to clearly create a scoring chance than to stop one... but still an interesting development

I would like the Athletic to tell my employer how much I’m worth

 

[Big L]

I would like the Athletic to tell my employer how much I’m worth

Ummm, no you wouldn’t….

 

[PK Cronin]

Differing opinions are welcome. Posting the same thing repeatedly is not, no matter which side you're on in a discussion. If we think you're trolling you'll be treated accordingly.

I personally take issue with people being poor communicators or inventing their own definition of words to suit their needs. You won't get points for that, just really long posts from me about how you're wrong.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

I would sign up for that post season even if it didn’t mean a cup.

The "cup or nothing" brigade is probably the silliest. Nobody functions this way.

 

[Zeeker]

Differing opinions are welcome. Posting the same thing repeatedly is not, no matter which side you're on in a discussion. If we think you're trolling you'll be treated accordingly.

I personally take issue with people being poor communicators or inventing their own definition of words to suit their needs. You won't get points for that, just really long posts from me about how you're wrong.

Every poster here could stand to learn a thing or two from your multi-quoting prowess

 

[SI]

Now I get it. How’d I do?

You need more dancing bananas for the dancing fruit faction.

 

[TheWhiteWhale30]

When everyone is healthy - except Wahlstrom who is out for the year - how do you line them up?

For me -
Lee Horvat Barzal
Parise Nelson Palmieri
Engvall Pageau Bailey
Martin Cizikas Clutterbuck

Holmstrom and Fasching step in for Engvall Bailey or Clutterbuck in case of injury or poor play.
Johnston for Martin

I think I start like this.

What will happen… probably. What should happen is Bailey out and Fasching in. In Faschings 35 games he has 11 points and is a +10. Bailey in that span has 16 pts and is a +3. Bailey is also averaging 15 minutes a game to Faschings 12. Even those out and the point are pretty much even. Fasching just adds more speed, he hustles and shoots the puck.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

I would argue with that - 1st Cup run before Covid - team was struggling mightily. Also, Sorokin > Varlamov too.

The truth is posters can bitch about not selling and pine about the roster and coach not being good enough, but some posters don’t want to read that shit right now - not in the middle of a intense playoff race. Save that shit for the off-season.

And this indignation when posters get called out - is silly. This is a message board - posters can post whatever their opinion is and the same posters should expect that others will disagree.

Also, this opposing of two factions is also quite silly. posters hold varied opinions across different topics.

And finally, this roster doesn’t have to win the Stanley Cup to have a successful season - Imagine a first round match up against the Devils - a 1st since 88 -89? A 2nd match against the Rangers- first since 94?

I would sign up for that post season even if it didn’t mean a cup.

Wrong.

You basically defend a position and then in the same post you contradict it by saying posters can post whatever their opinion is.

You were correct in the second account. It is perfectly fine for any opinion to be shared but the same respect needs to be shown to those who differentiate.

For some, it is ALL ABOUT WINNING THE CUP, and for many if that isn't possible then you do what you can to be cup contenders in the FUTURE. Being annual cup contenders to many is better than simply making the playoffs.

As for the difference in opinions, those should be RESPECTED. If you don't want to "read that shit right now" then simply skip over it. Many posters don't want to read about the ones who are satisfied with just getting into the playoffs (which are much more frequent) either and more times than not they are being respected- the exact same respect that should be given to those who aren't satisfied with that "settling".

That is the bottom line, if you don't want to read a certain opinion; skip over it.....but if you just have to reply, be respectful about it.

Period.

 

[MarsTBOW]

I don't hate that line.

Lee-Tavares-Bailey was a good line. We'll see....

Bailey's legs were a lot younger then!

 

[leeroggy]

I don't hate that line.

Lee-Tavares-Bailey was a good line. We'll see....

Because hate is too weak a term? Loathe? Vomit-inducing? Terminal? Apocalyptic?

 

[leeroggy]

I would like the Athletic to tell my employer how much I’m worth

Would if they classified you as 'part-time' erroneously?