Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[Richie Daggers Crime]

No it wasn't. The Islanders traded for a young, physical defenseman who has not even played 200 NHL games yet. He turned 23 years old less than two months ago. If there was a mid first round pick that grew up in the organization playing like him everyone would love it.

They paid for cost control.

 

[CupHolders]

I didn't and don't want Fiala, but if you gave me (or anyone else with a pulse) a choice of...

-Romanov for #13 overall
-Fiala for #19 and Brock Faber

...There is no choice.

The point is simply about value and making the point that Lou overpays at least a little, if not a lot, in every deal...And he doesn't maximize the limited assets we do have to trade.

To futher...I love Pageau, but a 1st and 2nd for a bottom 6 player is too much every time. And if you took Pageau and Romanov and offer them as a package to any team (or individually) you're not getting much in in return.

Yet if you took the 2 1sts and a 2nd Lou traded for Pageau/Romanov...Well that's basically the price the Senators just paid for Chychrun.

Just consider that.

Unfortunately, at this point I’m pretty sure that if all of that happened as you suggested… Lou paid 2 firsts and a 2nd for Chychurn you would be upset and claiming that he overpaid.

The fact that you yourself were against acquiring Fiala, but still use it as evidence for your opinionated arguments about Lamoriello… seems primarily agenda driven.

Chychurn would be an improvement on this lineup. But honestly I think he would provide diminished returns. Dobson would have to surrender PP minutes for Chychurn to continue to provide offense. His defense isn’t substantially better then Pelech or Pulock.

Finally, I don’t even see how you reached this conclusion of Pageau/Romanov vs Chychurn? You completely ignore that these trades were separated by two years… two playoff runs… world calamity etc. I just don’t know what to say about that flawed reasoning. As if there ever was an opportunity to choose either or.

You keep going down that rabbit hole and Marty McFly might of actually hooked up with his mom! Then what? Maybe Biff ends up owning the Islanders!

 

[SI]

I don’t see how we add anything- to my calculations we’re gonna need just about every cent to just keep our guys. Maybe I’m missing something.

It would take some assumptions -
First, Parise resigns for league minimum
Second, Lou plays hardball with Wahlstrom gives him Qualifying offer - .875k for 1 year. Wahlstrom has no arbitration rights this off-season.
Third, Lou packages Bailey and 2024 2nd to jettison his contract.
Fourth, Mayfield resigns for 4.25 aav - which higher Adam Larsson and lower than Josh Manson.
Fifth, Clutterbuck goes on LTIR and essentially retires like Boychuk did.
Sixth, Lou resigns a depth d man to be the 7th guy at league minimum.
Seventh, Lou signs a modest G back up

That would leave 5.45 in cap space IF the cap only goes up 1 m… do you use that capspace to secure Varlamov and have extra cap space OR do you sign someone like Todd Bertuzzi with the 5m

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

You keep going down that rabbit hole and Marty McFly might of actually hooked up with his mom! Then what? Maybe Biff ends up owning the Islanders!

It helps to not look at it as an opinion formed through information, but instead as a preset conclusion based on an ideological stance. Everything gets adjusted to fit the conclusion.

 

[SI]

So Lane was an assistant coach that other teams "sniffed" around on, but he never got close to a head coaching gig for 10+ years...And you're ok with your GM installing him to lead a team he believes is a Cup contender? I legit don't know how a fan could be ok with hiring a rookie coach who has to learn on the job for a team that the GM says has Cup aspirations. This isn't the Panthers of last year who had to walk away from Quenneville and put in a nobody coach because of a crazy situation. A third of the league changed coaches last offeason so there were other experienced/qualified options to be had, and Lou goes with someone who will probably never have another head coaching gig in the NHL again. It's scarily a move that Milbury or snow would've done.

The Romanov deal is a trainwreck across the board. We just have to admit it. You should never be trading a top 15 pick for a guy that tops out as a 2nd pairing defenseman (but is currently playing like an AHL one). I know some hold out hope that we actually got the 2nd coming of Kasparaitis, but many nights Romanov is as bad as Aho. Even if he puts it together this is a "win now" team so we needed D-man that didn't need more time to develop.

Consider this...We gave up the #13 overall for Romanov. The Kings gave up #19 overall and Brock Faber and got Fiala - Who leads the Kings in scoring. Lou continues to overpay in basically every deal. He never maximizes the assets he gives up and when you have barely any futures to trade in the first place he is always chasing his tail and never quite seems to solve the holes we have (And in the case of Romanov, he didn't solve one at all).




And even assuming that happens, how is that team in 23-24 going to be any better than this squad that is struggling to make the playoffs in a stacked Eastern Conference?

It's all not good enough and time many take off the rose-colored glasses they wear when discussing the GM.

You hope that players develop into stronger players… seeing the player that Nelson and Mayfield have blossomed into… you hope Dobson takes another step toward refining his game - Barzal too. Wahlstrom and Holmstrom Bolduc and Dufour hopefully blossom into real deal NHL players. Sorokin continues his elite play and maybe you get a diamond in the rough - someone like Ishkahov.

maybe even Lambert grows and becomes stronger. You also get a full season with Horvat. That’s why you play the games.

Now, I am still in the boat that Lou should leverage Nelson’s strong play and dangle him at the Draft to land a pick and a top prospect, then use that cap space in free agency to replace Nelson’s production. I know it is not a popular opinion since he has been our best forward but at 32 I think they try to shake things up and get younger.
I’ll throw a hypothetical out there - would folks turn down Minnesota’s 1st, Liam Ohgren, and a 3rd in 2024 for Brock. Then using the capspace for Bertuzzi?

 

[SI]

You would be right, it would be extremely difficult to add anything....

Let's assume an 84 million, since early projection is 83.5 and "hope" is 84.5 (split the difference).

We would have the following signed for next season:

Barzal 9.15
Horvat 8.5
Lee 7.0
Nelson 6.0
Bailey 5.0
Palmieri 5.0
Pageau 5.0
Cizikas 2.5
Clutterbuck 1.75
Martin 1.5
Holmstrom .85

Pulock 6.15
Pelech 5.75
Dobson 4.0
Romanov 2.5

Sorokin 4.0

That is only 16 players at a cap hit of $74.66 million, leaving you only $9.34 million in cap space to fill your roster. That is 11 forwards, meaning you need two MINIMUM; only 4 blueliners, meaning you need three MINIMUM and of course 1 goalie, which means you need a backup.

Let's assume (and hope) Parise wants to keep playing and come back for the league minimum again since he has made a killing already and is still owed like 18 million from Minnesota, I for one am also not letting Bolduc or Wahlstrom go for nothing, so I get both of them re-signed for 2 million total as well. So, add those three:

Parise .78 (league minimum goes up to 775,000)
Bolduc .93
Wahlstrom 1.2

So now you are up to 19...assuming you are ok with the following:

1) Johnston is buried and not counted as part of your 22
2) Bolduc/Aho/Salo is fine as your #6 or 7 defender.
3) Both Wahlstrom and Holmstrom join Parise as part of your "13 forwards"

Those 19 cost you $77.5 million, leaving you only $6.5 in cap space.

Are you re-signing Varlamov and Mayfield with that 6.5 million??? Doing so would leave you no cap space.

None of your current list of forwards are ideal to play in the top six with Barzal/Horvat/Lee/Nelson/Palmieri but you may have no choice but to "hope" that Wahlstrom turns it around or someone like Dufour is ready. Parise is your best candidate right now, but you would prefer to have him on your 3rd line with Pageau.

Lastly and MOST IMPORTANTLY is you still don't have a LD2.

You save only $2.3 million by buying out Bailey, so obviously trading him and saving 5 million is more ideal, but you are likely having to attach an asset in order to do so.

Engvall is probably out of your price range (he likely gets 2-3 million) without doing so and getting a true top6 forward definitely is, to say nothing about getting another puck moving blueliner....

You need to add Aho and his .825, but the key to all of it is moving Bailey’s contract OUT… that’s how you add.

 

[CupHolders]

It helps to not look at it as an opinion formed through information, but instead as a preset conclusion based on an ideological stance. Everything gets adjusted to fit the conclusion.

True. It would have saved me from the amount of writing I did too.

 

[IslesNorway]

You would be right, it would be extremely difficult to add anything....

Let's assume an 84 million, since early projection is 83.5 and "hope" is 84.5 (split the difference).

We would have the following signed for next season:

Barzal 9.15
Horvat 8.5
Lee 7.0
Nelson 6.0
Bailey 5.0
Palmieri 5.0
Pageau 5.0
Cizikas 2.5
Clutterbuck 1.75
Martin 1.5
Holmstrom .85

Pulock 6.15
Pelech 5.75
Dobson 4.0
Romanov 2.5

Sorokin 4.0

That is only 16 players at a cap hit of $74.66 million, leaving you only $9.34 million in cap space to fill your roster. That is 11 forwards, meaning you need two MINIMUM; only 4 blueliners, meaning you need three MINIMUM and of course 1 goalie, which means you need a backup.

Let's assume (and hope) Parise wants to keep playing and come back for the league minimum again since he has made a killing already and is still owed like 18 million from Minnesota, I for one am also not letting Bolduc or Wahlstrom go for nothing, so I get both of them re-signed for 2 million total as well. So, add those three:

Parise .78 (league minimum goes up to 775,000)
Bolduc .93
Wahlstrom 1.2

So now you are up to 19...assuming you are ok with the following:

1) Johnston is buried and not counted as part of your 22
2) Bolduc/Aho/Salo is fine as your #6 or 7 defender.
3) Both Wahlstrom and Holmstrom join Parise as part of your "13 forwards"

Those 19 cost you $77.5 million, leaving you only $6.5 in cap space.

Are you re-signing Varlamov and Mayfield with that 6.5 million??? Doing so would leave you no cap space.

None of your current list of forwards are ideal to play in the top six with Barzal/Horvat/Lee/Nelson/Palmieri but you may have no choice but to "hope" that Wahlstrom turns it around or someone like Dufour is ready. Parise is your best candidate right now, but you would prefer to have him on your 3rd line with Pageau.

Lastly and MOST IMPORTANTLY is you still don't have a LD2.

You save only $2.3 million by buying out Bailey, so obviously trading him and saving 5 million is more ideal, but you are likely having to attach an asset in order to do so.

Engvall is probably out of your price range (he likely gets 2-3 million) without doing so and getting a true top6 forward definitely is, to say nothing about getting another puck moving blueliner....

This is, in essence, what I've been trying to say for quite some time. There is no room to upgrade this roster, as it stands now, and I have a bad feeling Lou will re-up Varly and Mayfield and create a situation like he did with Boychuck, only now there is no one with a cap hit that high to retire. Trading for LTIR might be the last straw.

Everything, yes everything this team does in the offseason hinges on getting rid of Bailey, The GMs hands are tied unless he can somehow get rid of that contract. In an ideal world both Palmieri and Pageau follow suit, but that is highly unlikely.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

This is, in essence, what I've been trying to say for quite some time. There is no room to upgrade this roster, as it stands now, and I have a bad feeling Lou will re-up Varly and Mayfield and create a situation like he did with Boychuck, only now there is no one with a cap hit that high to retire. Trading for LTIR might be the last straw.

Keep in mind that 2/3 of the league is in the same boat.

 

[TeamKidd]

You hope that players develop into stronger players… seeing the player that Nelson and Mayfield have blossomed into… you hope Dobson takes another step toward refining his game - Barzal too. Wahlstrom and Holmstrom Bolduc and Dufour hopefully blossom into real deal NHL players. Sorokin continues his elite play and maybe you get a diamond in the rough - someone like Ishkahov.

maybe even Lambert grows and becomes stronger. You also get a full season with Horvat. That’s why you play the games.

Now, I am still in the boat that Lou should leverage Nelson’s strong play and dangle him at the Draft to land a pick and a top prospect, then use that cap space in free agency to replace Nelson’s production. I know it is not a popular opinion since he has been our best forward but at 32 I think they try to shake things up and get younger.
I’ll throw a hypothetical out there - would folks turn down Minnesota’s 1st, Liam Ohgren, and a 3rd in 2024 for Brock. Then using the capspace for Bertuzzi?

Maybe a few goals in the shootout would help too.

 

[TeamKidd]

With how poorly Bailey has been playing I'm afraid of the cost to move him. Hopefully that old, cough cough, back injury flares up again....

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

With how poorly Bailey has been playing I'm afraid of the cost to move him. Hopefully that old, cough cough, back injury flares up again....

Those chains still around? Maybe Lou knows a guy down near the docks...

 

[The Real JT]

You hope that players develop into stronger players… seeing the player that Nelson and Mayfield have blossomed into… you hope Dobson takes another step toward refining his game - Barzal too. Wahlstrom and Holmstrom Bolduc and Dufour hopefully blossom into real deal NHL players. Sorokin continues his elite play and maybe you get a diamond in the rough - someone like Ishkahov.

maybe even Lambert grows and becomes stronger. You also get a full season with Horvat. That’s why you play the games.

Now, I am still in the boat that Lou should leverage Nelson’s strong play and dangle him at the Draft to land a pick and a top prospect, then use that cap space in free agency to replace Nelson’s production. I know it is not a popular opinion since he has been our best forward but at 32 I think they try to shake things up and get younger.
I’ll throw a hypothetical out there - would folks turn down Minnesota’s 1st, Liam Ohgren, and a 3rd in 2024 for Brock. Then using the capspace for Bertuzzi?

Losing Nelson makes us worse in the short term. Since it’s likely we have an unprotected first round pick going to Vancouver next year I don’t see how you move Nelson for anything other than an NHL ready player. We desperately need futures but not for this player right now.

The time to trade him was this past offseason coming off a 37 goal year or if he maintains his productivity there might be another chance after the 23-24 season.

My lament is that Lou might’ve had an opportunity to flip Varly for a second that arguably could’ve offset the cost needed to trade Bailey.

 

[seafoam]

They can also buy out Bailey and get 2,333,333 in cap savings immediately next year.

Or attach him with Wahlstrom in a trade at his full cap hit..

 

[Lek]

They can also buy out Bailey and get 2,333,333 in cap savings immediately next year.

Or attach him with Wahlstrom in a trade at his full cap hit..

I am really thankful i am not the person that needs to manage the cap. No easy task balancing team needs, wants and the people, the person.

Bailey is a tough one. I have always been a fan. Also know it it time. We all kinda see where this is going and i am sure Bailey knows where this is heading.

I am betting a conversation between he and Lou will happen after season end looking to see what Bailey wants to do going forward and what Lou is thinking but yes, i can see a buyout and then letting him decide where he wants to go and what he wishes to do moving forward with his career.

Do not see Wally going anywhere. Not sure he would get us as much value as he should be next year for us.....inexpensive skill for at least next year.

 

[seafoam]

I am really thankful i am not the person that needs to manage the cap. No easy task balancing team needs, wants and the people, the person.

Bailey is a tough one. I have always been a fan. Also know it it time. We all kinda see where this is going and i am sure Bailey knows where this is heading.

I am betting a conversation between he and Lou will happen after season end looking to see what Bailey wants to do going forward and what Lou is thinking but yes, i can see a buyout and then letting him decide where he wants to go and what he wishes to do moving forward with his career.

Do not see Wally going anywhere. Not sure he would get us as much value as he should be next year for us.....inexpensive skill for at least next year.

Barzal, Palmieri, Holmstrom, Fasching, etc. Where does Wahlstrom fit in?

 

[The Real JT]

Again...I haven't given up on Romanov, but you don't trade a top 15 draft pick for a D-man whose upside tops out as maybe a 3 or 4...And you especially don't do it for a 22 year old one, who currently has holes in his game, when you are supposedly trying to win a Cup (If the Isles were rebuilding I'd have a different feeling about the trade, but I still wouldn't like it).

And of course "who would you like to have" isn't an apples to apples comparison. It's just to illustrate that Lou not only overpays in deals, but conceptually he keeps trading 1st rounders in individual deals for average talent when he should be compiling them to go for really big talent.

To wit - The Horvat trade was his best move yet. That's how you use a 1st - Add to it to get a legit top player. Look at at this way...

• 2020 1st (and 2nd) - Pageau
• 2021 1st (and '22 4th) - Palmieri
• 2022 1st - Romanov
• 2023 1st (and Beauvillier/Raty) - Horvat

Not even a question the last deal is the best use of trading a 1st as they should be saved for more special players. For a roster that is stocked up with "decent" and "middle 6" type of players, rolling the dice for higher end talent is exactly what any GM should be doing - Either that or might as well rebuild.

I just wish Lou made that kind of move back in 2020. Might have been the difference between a semi-final exit and a Cup.

I’m disappointed with Romanov’s play thus far but I was a fan of the trade at the time and still believe he can and will improve.

I’d keep in mind two things.
1. We had a gaping hole in our roster for an NHL ready LHD that was not available in our system. Top shelf UFAs don’t sign here.
2. While I shudder every time we trade a first round pick, #13 overall first round picks have a remarkably meh track record.

I’ll agree with you on the Pageau and Palmieri trades. Giving up first round picks and more for middling players and then signing them into their 30s doesn’t cut it for me.

 

[Big L]

If it comes to buying out bailey, what about putting him on waivers first?

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

Barzal, Palmieri, Holmstrom, Fasching, etc. Where does Wahlstrom fit in?

Higher than Holmstrom and Fasching?

 

[boredmale]

If it comes to buying out bailey, what about putting him on waivers first?

I would try trade him at us eating 50% of his caphit. Bailey at 2.5M all of a sudden is tradable

 

[xECK29x]

If it comes to buying out bailey, what about putting him on waivers first?

We would have to in order to be bought out. It wouldn’t be hard to get rid of Bailey for one year. I don’t think you you need a buyout.

 

[Lek]

Barzal, Palmieri, Holmstrom, Fasching, etc. Where does Wahlstrom fit in?

yup....for sure but if we bring in a top 6 wing?, then where do we put him?

Holmstrom i am really not sold on, yet.....
Fasching i really like, but Wally slots higher theoretically, if he gets his game together....not really sure what Wally gets us at this point in time in a trade.

 

[TeamKidd]

The question is, does Bailey want to keep playing? He seems to have lost a step and some zest for thr game. I'm sure LL will offer him the Boychuk treatment if he goes on LTIR...does he really wanna bounce around with ARI or CHI for a year before being done?

 

[MJF]

We would have to in order to be bought out. It wouldn’t be hard to get rid of Bailey for one year. I don’t think you you need a buyout.

I think it will be difficult to find a taker for Bailey. If nobody wanted James van Riemsdyk expiring contract, I can't see Bailey's cheaper expiring contract being any more of a selling point for him this summer.

The best we can hope for is Josh Bailey decides to retire after this season.

 

[JKP]

I think it will be difficult to find a taker for Bailey. If nobody wanted James van Riemsdyk expiring contract, I can't see Bailey's cheaper expiring contract being any more of a selling point for him this summer.

The best we can hope for is Josh Bailey decides to retire after this season.

He seems like a perfect fit for AZ… $5M cap hit on $3.5M actual dollars. It’s not like they even care anymore about their actual on ice product. At least while they’re in that tiny building…