Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[Mike C]

Wordless communication. No doubt to be used on the homefront. Right Big L!!?

 

[PK Cronin]

I agree with this. Picks are generally overrated.

For instance, historically, the pick the Isles gave up to get Horvat (assuming it's in the teens), has about a 10% chance of becoming a star, and roughly a 65% of becoming an NHL regular. The reason 1st round picks should be valued is because if you hit on that 10%, you have a cost-controlled star for about 7 years. The cost-controlled star is exponentially more valuable than Horvat at 8.5x 8 in the cap world.

The Isles window is now, so a trade like this makes sense. Only question is whether Horvat was the right player to spend it on. My inclination thus far is yes, but time will tell.

If you look at the last few cup winners, the secret formula tends to winning the cup is having as many value contracts as possible. The Avs last year had Nate Mackinnon, Devon Toews, Val Nichuskin, Andre Burakovski, Nazem Kadri, Bowen Byram. All these players provided elite or almost elite level contributions at far below market value. Even Makar at 9 million was a bargain.

This year's version of that are the Bruins. Almost everyone on that team is below market value.

The Isles unfortunately don't have many "good" value deals at the moment. Nelson, Parise, Wahlstrom (when healthy), Dobson, and most importantly, Sorokin are the only good value deals on the team. Sorokin is the big one. But he too will get a large deal at the of next season, and that will take away a huge competitive advantage the Isles have. One they haven't been able to take advantage of because there isn't a lot of "value" on this roster. A big reason for this is is poor drafting and not having enough lottery tickets in the draft.

The Lightning for instance are nearing the end of their window, because they no longer have the value contracts they had during their cup runs. They have re-signed their core pieces to large deals. But they've won their cups. My biggest gripes about Lou is that we haven't, and we've been treating our roster like we have with market value or just above market value for a middle of the lineup players like Palmieri, Pageau, etc.

Time will tell if this team has enough pieces to be relevant this season and beyond. Not looking great, but anything can happen.

It's a huge component for sure. The hope, for me at least, is that Lamoriello can make a trade to acquire a "risk" that pays off. There are a lot of young guys moved around the league for not so much and then have nice careers. Players can get locked into great contracts for the team early on and those can pay off too. Mayfield on his current contract is amazing value, that value starts to diminish on his next deal.

It only takes a player or two to completely change a team sometimes, Horvat is a welcomed upgrade and I'm really hoping Lamoriello can pull a similar deal off this summer but with someone a bit younger.

 

[Tahoeblue]

Took a wicked Kessel shot to face in late Jan. Shield was 4-6 week Dr ordered over break.

Kid came back after that and played the rest of game. Mad respect for his overall toughness and willingness to play with pain


One of the beat guys suggests we look at Varly as a rental that didnt cost anything and insurance for Sorokin. Injury insurance and 3 back to backs in March

Thanks Mike for always responding. You are a good and classy dude.

Correct me if I am wrong. The TDL is for playoffs rosters, right? If the Isles fall out could Lou trade for Lawson Crouse or something from a team that is also out of the playoffs?

Thanks in advance

 

[Mike C]

Thanks Mike for always responding. You are a good and classy dude.

Correct me if I am wrong. The TDL is for playoffs rosters, right? If the Isles fall out could Lou trade for Lawson Crouse or something from a team that is also out of the playoffs?

Thanks in advance

Hey man. Truly appreciate the kind words!

I think you are correct in the trade/playoff roster thing but not 100 percent sure

 

[periferal]

This is the second time in the past few days you’ve mentioned Fiala.

The early part of this very thread was started around the time of the trade. Plenty of reports at that time had Fiala wanting to go to the Kings.

Could the Isles have acquired him? Yes. But you wouldn’t have been all too pleased if he didn’t extend here and Vanek-ed his way to LA.

EDIT: Just went over some of those posts… you yourself were against acquiring Fiala at that time, and paying him that amount... Lol, So what are you going on about now?

I didn't and don't want Fiala, but if you gave me (or anyone else with a pulse) a choice of...

-Romanov for #13 overall
-Fiala for #19 and Brock Faber

...There is no choice.

The point is simply about value and making the point that Lou overpays at least a little, if not a lot, in every deal...And he doesn't maximize the limited assets we do have to trade.

To futher...I love Pageau, but a 1st and 2nd for a bottom 6 player is too much every time. And if you took Pageau and Romanov and offer them as a package to any team (or individually) you're not getting much in in return.

Yet if you took the 2 1sts and a 2nd Lou traded for Pageau/Romanov...Well that's basically the price the Senators just paid for Chychrun.

Just consider that.

 

[doublechili]

I love Pageau, but a 1st and 2nd for a bottom 6 player is too much every time.

Characterizing a 3C as a bottom 6 player is not entirely accurate. A 3C is possibly more important than a 2nd line winger. And JGP wasn't a rental. So the Isles traded a #28 overall pick and a #59 overall pick to fill the 3C slot for at least 6+ years with a guy who puts up some points, wins faceoffs and PKs. That's a bad trade?

 

[periferal]

Characterizing a 3C as a bottom 6 player is not entirely accurate. A 3C is possibly more important than a 2nd line winger. And JGP wasn't a rental. So the Isles traded a #28 overall pick and a #59 overall pick to fill the 3C slot for at least 6+ years with a guy who puts up some points, wins faceoffs and PKs. That's a bad trade?

Again...I love Pageau and it's not a bad trade (Romanov was a bad trade). It's an overpay, and there's a difference.

Right now would you rather have...

1. Pageau and Romanov
2. Chychrun

Hopefully your answer is #2. Lord knows you couldn't trade Pageau and Romanov for Chychrun now...And the Senators actually paid a little less for Chychrun than Lou did for Pageau and Romanov.

 

[Skip To My Lou]

Again...I love Pageau and it's not a bad trade. It's an overpay, and there's a difference.

Right now would you rather have...

1. Pageau and Romanov
2. Chychrun

Hopefully your answer is #2. Lord knows you couldn't trade Pageau and Romanov for Chychrun now...And the Senators actually paid a little less for Chychrun than Lou did for Pageau and Romanov.

I agree. I love Pageau too, and have grown to like Romanov's game. Also think he's only going to improve. But it's wild we traded 1sts for both of them.

 

[doublechili]

Again...I love Pageau and it's not a bad trade (Romanov was a bad trade). It's an overpay, and there's a difference.

Right now would you rather have...

1. Pageau and Romanov
2. Chychrun

Hopefully your answer is #2. Lord knows you couldn't trade Pageau and Romanov for Chychrun now...And the Senators actually paid a little less for Chychrun than Lou did for Pageau and Romanov.

Romanov is the same age as Dobson and you've already given up on him?

The "would you rather have" question requires too much dot-connecting/logical-leaping to be legit. You can't say that if Lou didn't trade for JGP and Romanov he could have Chychrun instead. The better comparison would be would you rather have Chychrun or Horvat, because that at least is the same year (although there are so many other factors involved that even this is not a legit question). Arguably Lou got Horvat for less than OTT paid for Chychrun though (due to the conditions on the picks, among other things).

 

[periferal]

Romanov is the same age as Dobson and you've already given up on him?

The "would you rather have" question requires too much dot-connecting/logical-leaping to be legit. You can't say that if Lou didn't trade for JGP and Romanov he could have Chychrun instead. The better comparison would be would you rather have Chychrun or Horvat, because that at least is the same year (although there are so many other factors involved that even this is not a legit question). Arguably Lou got Horvat for less than OTT paid for Chychrun though (due to the conditions on the picks, among other things).

Again...I haven't given up on Romanov, but you don't trade a top 15 draft pick for a D-man whose upside tops out as maybe a 3 or 4...And you especially don't do it for a 22 year old one, who currently has holes in his game, when you are supposedly trying to win a Cup (If the Isles were rebuilding I'd have a different feeling about the trade, but I still wouldn't like it).

And of course "who would you like to have" isn't an apples to apples comparison. It's just to illustrate that Lou not only overpays in deals, but conceptually he keeps trading 1st rounders in individual deals for average talent when he should be compiling them to go for really big talent.

To wit - The Horvat trade was his best move yet. That's how you use a 1st - Add to it to get a legit top player. Look at at this way...

• 2020 1st (and 2nd) - Pageau
• 2021 1st (and '22 4th) - Palmieri
• 2022 1st - Romanov
• 2023 1st (and Beauvillier/Raty) - Horvat

Not even a question the last deal is the best use of trading a 1st as they should be saved for more special players. For a roster that is stocked up with "decent" and "middle 6" type of players, rolling the dice for higher end talent is exactly what any GM should be doing - Either that or might as well rebuild.

I just wish Lou made that kind of move back in 2020. Might have been the difference between a semi-final exit and a Cup.

 

[YearlyLottery]

Again...I love Pageau and it's not a bad trade (Romanov was a bad trade). It's an overpay, and there's a difference.

Right now would you rather have...

1. Pageau and Romanov
2. Chychrun

Hopefully your answer is #2. Lord knows you couldn't trade Pageau and Romanov for Chychrun now...And the Senators actually paid a little less for Chychrun than Lou did for Pageau and Romanov.

No it wasn't. The Islanders traded for a young, physical defenseman who has not even played 200 NHL games yet. He turned 23 years old less than two months ago. If there was a mid first round pick that grew up in the organization playing like him everyone would love it.

By this time next year Romanov will be a staple of the Isles top four and people will be talking more about him here than Dobson.

Pageau was a game changer in the playoffs for this organization for two straight years. I would be okay with him being dealt at this point though.

The flaw in your thinking is blaming this on the Isles. The Chychrun dismal return was more on Arizona than anyone else. They waited out the entire league until one of the few teams who are not making the playoffs were pulling the trigger.

 

[Strummergas]

No it wasn't. The Islanders traded for a young, physical defenseman who has not even played 200 NHL games yet. He turned 23 years old less than two months ago. If there was a mid first round pick that grew up in the organization playing like him everyone would love it.

By this time next year Romanov will be a staple of the Isles top four and people will be talking more about him here than Dobson.

Pageau was a game changer in the playoffs for this organization for two straight years. I would be okay with him being dealt at this point though.

The flaw in your thinking is blaming this on the Isles. The Chychrun dismal return was more on Arizona than anyone else. They waited out the entire league until one of the few teams who are not making the playoffs were pulling the trigger.

But think of the value! For what they gave up for Romanov, they could had Jeremy Roenick in 1994 for the same price!

 

[seafoam]

17 games left for Horvat to get 40, Nelson and Lee to get 30, and Parise to get to 20…

 

[xECK29x]

17 games left for Horvat to get 40, Nelson and Lee to get 30, and Parise to get to 20…

But boring

 

[seafoam]

But boring

I’ll never understand people who go out of their way to waste their energy on another team…

With that said, NYI would probably also have Barzal, Pageau, and Palmieri as 20 goal scorers if all three were healthy the majority of the year.

That would be a 40 goal scorer, two 30 goal scorers, and four 20 goal scorers. And the Islanders are still 24th in team goal scoring, what a crazy league.

 

[doublechili]

Again...I haven't given up on Romanov, but you don't trade a top 15 draft pick for a D-man whose upside tops out as maybe a 3 or 4...And you especially don't do it for a 22 year old one, who currently has holes in his game, when you are supposedly trying to win a Cup (If the Isles were rebuilding I'd have a different feeling about the trade, but I still wouldn't like it).

And of course "who would you like to have" isn't an apples to apples comparison. It's just to illustrate that Lou not only overpays in deals, but conceptually he keeps trading 1st rounders in individual deals for average talent when he should be compiling them to go for really big talent.

To wit - The Horvat trade was his best move yet. That's how you use a 1st - Add to it to get a legit top player. Look at at this way...

• 2020 1st (and 2nd) - Pageau
• 2021 1st (and '22 4th) - Palmieri
• 2022 1st - Romanov
• 2023 1st (and Beauvillier/Raty) - Horvat

Not even a question the last deal is the best use of trading a 1st as they should be saved for more special players. For a roster that is stocked up with "decent" and "middle 6" type of players, rolling the dice for higher end talent is exactly what any GM should be doing - Either that or might as well rebuild.

I just wish Lou made that kind of move back in 2020. Might have been the difference between a semi-final exit and a Cup.

I really liked the Romanov deal and would do it again. Granted, I always liked the player. But a #13 pick in an average draft typically ends up being a 3/4 defenseman or a 2nd line forward. It was reasonable value. And Romanov is a 22 year old guy with some unusual attributes (his size/skating/hitting combo plus a positive in "the room"). Plus, absent that deal I highly doubt the team would be sniffing the playoffs right now with Pelech's injury and Romanov stepping up to play 1st pair and also killing penalties as a LHD (not sure who would have done that otherwise).

I agree the Horvat deal was a good one. And I'm also okay with the Pageau and Palmieri deals because they were such late 1st round picks. It does help that our draft picks seem to be trending well generally, so they're getting some value in later rounds.

 

[TeamKidd]

Wouldn't it be funny if we caught the Rags?

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

I don’t see how we add anything- to my calculations we’re gonna need just about every cent to just keep our guys. Maybe I’m missing something.

You would be right, it would be extremely difficult to add anything....

Let's assume an 84 million, since early projection is 83.5 and "hope" is 84.5 (split the difference).

We would have the following signed for next season:

Barzal 9.15
Horvat 8.5
Lee 7.0
Nelson 6.0
Bailey 5.0
Palmieri 5.0
Pageau 5.0
Cizikas 2.5
Clutterbuck 1.75
Martin 1.5
Holmstrom .85

Pulock 6.15
Pelech 5.75
Dobson 4.0
Romanov 2.5

Sorokin 4.0

That is only 16 players at a cap hit of $74.66 million, leaving you only $9.34 million in cap space to fill your roster. That is 11 forwards, meaning you need two MINIMUM; only 4 blueliners, meaning you need three MINIMUM and of course 1 goalie, which means you need a backup.

Let's assume (and hope) Parise wants to keep playing and come back for the league minimum again since he has made a killing already and is still owed like 18 million from Minnesota, I for one am also not letting Bolduc or Wahlstrom go for nothing, so I get both of them re-signed for 2 million total as well. So, add those three:

Parise .78 (league minimum goes up to 775,000)
Bolduc .93
Wahlstrom 1.2

So now you are up to 19...assuming you are ok with the following:

1) Johnston is buried and not counted as part of your 22
2) Bolduc/Aho/Salo is fine as your #6 or 7 defender.
3) Both Wahlstrom and Holmstrom join Parise as part of your "13 forwards"

Those 19 cost you $77.5 million, leaving you only $6.5 in cap space.

Are you re-signing Varlamov and Mayfield with that 6.5 million??? Doing so would leave you no cap space.

None of your current list of forwards are ideal to play in the top six with Barzal/Horvat/Lee/Nelson/Palmieri but you may have no choice but to "hope" that Wahlstrom turns it around or someone like Dufour is ready. Parise is your best candidate right now, but you would prefer to have him on your 3rd line with Pageau.

Lastly and MOST IMPORTANTLY is you still don't have a LD2.

You save only $2.3 million by buying out Bailey, so obviously trading him and saving 5 million is more ideal, but you are likely having to attach an asset in order to do so.

Engvall is probably out of your price range (he likely gets 2-3 million) without doing so and getting a true top6 forward definitely is, to say nothing about getting another puck moving blueliner....

 

[Skip To My Lou]

You would be right, it would be extremely difficult to add anything....

Let's assume an 84 million, since early projection is 83.5 and "hope" is 84.5 (split the difference).

We would have the following signed for next season:

Barzal 9.15
Horvat 8.5
Lee 7.0
Nelson 6.0
Bailey 5.0
Palmieri 5.0
Pageau 5.0
Cizikas 2.5
Clutterbuck 1.75
Martin 1.5
Holmstrom .85

Pulock 6.15
Pelech 5.75
Dobson 4.0
Romanov 2.5

Sorokin 4.0

That is only 16 players at a cap hit of $74.66 million, leaving you only $9.34 million in cap space to fill your roster. That is 11 forwards, meaning you need two MINIMUM; only 4 blueliners, meaning you need three MINIMUM and of course 1 goalie, which means you need a backup.

Let's assume (and hope) Parise wants to keep playing and come back for the league minimum again since he has made a killing already and is still owed like 18 million from Minnesota, I for one am also not letting Bolduc or Wahlstrom go for nothing, so I get both of them re-signed for 2 million total as well. So, add those three:

Parise .78 (league minimum goes up to 775,000)
Bolduc .93
Wahlstrom 1.2

So now you are up to 19...assuming you are ok with the following:

1) Johnston is buried and not counted as part of your 22
2) Bolduc/Aho/Salo is fine as your #6 or 7 defender.
3) Both Wahlstrom and Holmstrom join Parise as part of your "13 forwards"

Those 19 cost you $77.5 million, leaving you only $6.5 in cap space.

Are you re-signing Varlamov and Mayfield with that 6.5 million??? Doing so would leave you no cap space.

None of your current list of forwards are ideal to play in the top six with Barzal/Horvat/Lee/Nelson/Palmieri but you may have no choice but to "hope" that Wahlstrom turns it around or someone like Dufour is ready. Parise is your best candidate right now, but you would prefer to have him on your 3rd line with Pageau.

Lastly and MOST IMPORTANTLY is you still don't have a LD2.

You save only $2.3 million by buying out Bailey, so obviously trading him and saving 5 million is more ideal, but you are likely having to attach an asset in order to do so.

Engvall is probably out of your price range (he likely gets 2-3 million) without doing so and getting a true top6 forward definitely is, to say nothing about getting another puck moving blueliner....

What I gathered from this is that we're going to have to cut bait with one or two players. We just cannot roll ANOTHER year with this crew. We're lucky enough to be in the position we're in, but something needs to change.

Try to find a trade partner that would take on Bailey and Palmieri's contracts. Palmieri has shown that he can still play, so I would venture to think a team wouldn't mind taking him on. Bailey will be much harder to move, and if you can't buy him out.

Just tired of rolling out the same old after it's been proven that this team isn't good enough to make the next step. Getting Horvat was awesome and he helps big time, but he's not the only one that will help us ascend.

 

[JKP]

LOL all the people shitting on Romanov. The kid just turned 23 and has 200 NHL games under his belt. In terms of his development he’s way ahead of where Pelech and Pullock all were at that age. He’ll get better as he continues to develop, imo.

I’d take a developing, hard-hitting D with 10+ NHL years ahead of him over the 15 OA pick that might make the NHL and might play 200 meaningful games in a career, especially when we’re a team trying to win now.

 

[Mike C]

LOL all the people shitting on Romanov. The kid just turned 23 and has 200 NHL games under his belt. In terms of his development he’s way ahead of where Pelech and Pullock all were at that age. He’ll get better as he continues to develop, imo.

I’d take a developing, hard-hitting D with 10+ NHL years ahead of him over the 15 OA pick that might make the NHL and might play 200 meaningful games in a career, especially when we’re a team trying to win now.

Preach it brotha!!

Wouldn't it be funny if we caught the Rags?

What would be funny is prancing into MSG come playoff time and kicking their asses from here to Chicago and the horse they rode in on

 

[Duanesutter12]

No it wasn't. The Islanders traded for a young, physical defenseman who has not even played 200 NHL games yet. He turned 23 years old less than two months ago. If there was a mid first round pick that grew up in the organization playing like him everyone would love it.

By this time next year Romanov will be a staple of the Isles top four and people will be talking more about him here than Dobson.

Pageau was a game changer in the playoffs for this organization for two straight years. I would be okay with him being dealt at this point though.

The flaw in your thinking is blaming this on the Isles. The Chychrun dismal return was more on Arizona than anyone else. They waited out the entire league until one of the few teams who are not making the playoffs were pulling the trigger.

Ooh, I agree with everything you said except Romanov being talked about more than Dobson in the future. I still think Dobber turns into a Pietrangelo like defenseman with even more upside. It's easy to get down on young players with the ebbs and flows of their development but Dobson's still only 23 years old. And to be clear I'm not saying you're down on him.... Maybe that's the wrong way of phrasing it, but I think we as fans have been a little hard on him considering the amount of minutes he plays at such a young age.

 

[YearlyLottery]

Ooh, I agree with everything you said except Romanov being talked about more than Dobson in the future. I still think Dobber turns into a Pietrangelo like defenseman with even more upside. It's easy to get down on young players with the ebbs and flows of their development but Dobson's still only 23 years old. And to be clear I'm not saying you're down on him.... Maybe that's the wrong way of phrasing it, but I think we as fans have been a little hard on him considering the amount of minutes he plays at such a young age.

That was certainly a bold prediction of mine. I think my overall point was that Romanov is going to be a nasty, physical, defensive top four guy who is one of those people who step up come rivalry and playoff games.

Dobson is going to be a good one although he needs to up his defensive game greatly.

 

[SI]

So Lane was an assistant coach that other teams "sniffed" around on, but he never got close to a head coaching gig for 10+ years...And you're ok with your GM installing him to lead a team he believes is a Cup contender? I legit don't know how a fan could be ok with hiring a rookie coach who has to learn on the job for a team that the GM says has Cup aspirations. This isn't the Panthers of last year who had to walk away from Quenneville and put in a nobody coach because of a crazy situation. A third of the league changed coaches last offeason so there were other experienced/qualified options to be had, and Lou goes with someone who will probably never have another head coaching gig in the NHL again. It's scarily a move that Milbury or snow would've done.

The Romanov deal is a trainwreck across the board. We just have to admit it. You should never be trading a top 15 pick for a guy that tops out as a 2nd pairing defenseman (but is currently playing like an AHL one). I know some hold out hope that we actually got the 2nd coming of Kasparaitis, but many nights Romanov is as bad as Aho. Even if he puts it together this is a "win now" team so we needed D-man that didn't need more time to develop.

Consider this...We gave up the #13 overall for Romanov. The Kings gave up #19 overall and Brock Faber and got Fiala - Who leads the Kings in scoring. Lou continues to overpay in basically every deal. He never maximizes the assets he gives up and when you have barely any futures to trade in the first place he is always chasing his tail and never quite seems to solve the holes we have (And in the case of Romanov, he didn't solve one at all).




And even assuming that happens, how is that team in 23-24 going to be any better than this squad that is struggling to make the playoffs in a stacked Eastern Conference?

It's all not good enough and time many take off the rose-colored glasses they wear when discussing the GM.

isles didn’t have a Brock Faber to add to that deal- Bolduc was the closest but his stock was pretty low last off season.

As a fan you can be upset about things- but what control do you have. You can choose to be upset about it and not be okay and litter this board with your disappointment or you can choose to be OK with it and trust the GM and give him the benefit of the doubt and see how it shakes out.

If it doesn’t work out, then call for the GM’s head at home rink. But emotional rants not grounded in the reality of the moment with this coach is not the answer. he has this team humming and finishing games strong again - 13-0 in third period. Big game against Sabres and Pens - Go Isles

 

[Duanesutter12]

That was certainly a bold prediction of mine. I think my overall point was that Romanov is going to be a nasty, physical, defensive top four guy who is one of those people who step up come rivalry and playoff games.

Dobson is going to be a good one although he needs to up his defensive game greatly.

I definitely agree with you! I love Romanov's game and while he hasn't had the year we probably thought he would he too is young with a bright future