Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[seafoam]

Iskhakov is not a young tank.

 

[DerekKingSnipes]

I see a lot of people mentioning tank or meier. How the heck are they resigning these guys unless they are rentals. If isles want to sign Bo, Mayfield, Wally and possibly varly on like a 2 mil contract they'll be right against the cap. Even if you get rid of baileys contract that's still not enough for those guys.

I see us trading Mayfield either way at deadline, he is good but isles can’t pay him 4+ a year in cap environment. I guess it possible we could get late first for him in some situation. Varly could be back but it won’t be at 5 a year, maybe half of that is more likely but If Kings are serious and want him and offer their first say I could us trading him also now. It’s possible Lou trades for other teams firsts and uses them to get someone like Meier. They could even keep the firsts and if they miss playoffs pick three times in 1st round and blow everyone mind who says Lou trades all our picks LOL. Isles could buy out Bailey savings around 2.5 on cap as well next year. If Horvat stays which I think he does in off-season isles could look at trading a center.

 

[The Real JT]

I took several days off from posting here due to the vitriol on this board with respect to alternative opinions. I thought it would be a week or two but I can’t help myself.

I previously stated that I wasn’t a fan of the Horvat trade. It most certainly makes us better but if this team is make the playoffs and become a contender then Lou needs to make at least one other major move. I’d be in favor of that. In for a penny in for a pound the saying goes.

The problem is our lack of tradeable assets. With our 2023/2024 first round picks being conditional, the next available first rounder is 2025. Ishakov, Salo and Aho are B prospects and those players along with second round picks don’t get you much. So what can we offer? Do you really want to flip Dufour or Bolduc? I don’t. I suppose last years draft picks, Wally and Holmstrom are in the mix. Trading someone like Mayfield makes us worse in the short term and I can’t imagine Lou doing that after the Horvat trade.

Let’s also not forget that our competitors for those last two spots are also likely to make trades to bolster their lineups.

 

[Mike C]

I took several days off from posting here due to the vitriol on this board with respect to alternative opinions. I thought it would be a week or two but I can’t help myself.

I previously stated that I wasn’t a fan of the Horvat trade. It most certainly makes us better but if this team is make the playoffs and become a contender then Lou need ls to make at least one other major move. I’d be in favor of that. In for a penny in for a pound the saying goes.

The problem is our lack of tradeable assets. With our 2023/2024 first round picks being conditional, the next available first rounder is 2025. Ishakov, Salo and Aho are B prospects and those players along with second round picks don’t get you much. So what can we offer? Do you really want to flip Dufour or Bolduc? I don’t. I suppose last years draft picks, Wally and Holmstrom are in the mix.

Let’s also not forget that our competitors for those last two spots are also likely to make trades to bolster their lineups.

Vitriol--excellent word

Last paragraph--spot on!

 

[doublechili]

I think we've established that Lou with the Isles has been trading for long-term pieces. He also seems to like building in some redundancy. Chychrun just makes the most sense to me. He'd help the PP. He'd be possibly our best all-around defenseman. He's got 2 more years at a bargain price contract. And he fits the mold of the kind of player Lou seems to like. As a bonus, you could probably send Bailey as part of the package and maybe get a forward from AZ as part of the deal (Fischer, Ritchie for depth or Schmaltz or, dare I say, Crouse for something more).

 

[Glory Days]

I think we've established that Lou with the Isles has been trading for long-term pieces. He also seems to like building in some redundancy. Chychrun just makes the most sense to me. He'd help the PP. He'd be possibly our best all-around defenseman. He's got 2 more years at a bargain price contract. And he fits the mold of the kind of player Lou seems to like. As a bonus, you could probably send Bailey as part of the package and maybe get a forward from AZ as part of the deal (Fischer, Ritchie for depth or Schmaltz or, dare I say, Crouse for something more).

I tend to agree with this but I wonder if the Isles have the pieces to get Chychrun? He would fit the retool that I think Lou is doing and would help the power play. I believe Lou must see the PP as the team’s Achilles heal and by getting Chychrun he helps the PP while continuing the retool.

 

[Skip To My Lou]

I see a lot of people mentioning tank or meier. How the heck are they resigning these guys unless they are rentals. If isles want to sign Bo, Mayfield, Wally and possibly varly on like a 2 mil contract they'll be right against the cap. Even if you get rid of baileys contract that's still not enough for those guys.

Meier is going to cost too much in terms of trade assets and his new contract. After trading for Horvat, we'll probably sign him, and there's no way we can afford Meier's new deal.

 

[JPIsles18]

I think we've established that Lou with the Isles has been trading for long-term pieces. He also seems to like building in some redundancy. Chychrun just makes the most sense to me. He'd help the PP. He'd be possibly our best all-around defenseman. He's got 2 more years at a bargain price contract. And he fits the mold of the kind of player Lou seems to like. As a bonus, you could probably send Bailey as part of the package and maybe get a forward from AZ as part of the deal (Fischer, Ritchie for depth or Schmaltz or, dare I say, Crouse for something more).

The Isles need another top 6 forward and a puck moving defenseman. Chycrun would make sense, but the asking cost has been very high thus far and unlikely to come down (2 1st rounders and a top prospect per Friedman). We don't have a 2023 pick, and I don't think we can trade 2024 unless we know what the condition on 23 pick is. We also don't have a top prospect.

The team's cap situation is bad, in the sense that there aren't many bargains and one awful contract (Bailey), followed by poor value contracts that will continue to age poorly (Pageau, Cizikas, Clutterbuck, Martin, Palmieri), and some poor value contracts that I think will improve once the team improves (Pulock, Romanov).

My point is, it's time that Lou explores some cheap options to fill roles. Parise was an example of this. But I wish he did this with younger players (Milano, Tolvanen, etc). I continue to worry that Lou consistently overpays for players for what they had already done rather than what they will do. The outlier being Romanov. However, Romanov was a player who never flashed offensive potential, making his high acquisition cost a fairly big gamble. Chychurin would be great, but he and Horvat don't make us contenders IMO. We also need another top 6 forward. I'd prefer spending cap space and assets on that. Defensemen can be had for value every year. Some examples just from this year (Dunn, Gustafson).

 

[JPIsles18]

Meier is going to cost too much in terms of trade assets and his new contract. After trading for Horvat, we'll probably sign him, and there's no way we can afford Meier's new deal.

This is an interesting point. I'm extremely curious to see what Meier brings back. Meier is better than Horvat, and only 1 year younger. His QO is 10 mil, but it won't matter as whoever trades for him will be signing him for 8 years. Now assuming Bo gets 8x8, the Isles will have roughly 8 million to spend to re-sign Wahlstrom, a back up goalie, and a top 6 dman (assuming Varlamov and Mayfield don't come back). Wahlstrom will probably cost around 3 mil on a bridge. This leaves us with about 5 mil. It's imperative Bailey gets dumped instead of bought out. This is speculative, but I wonder if Clutter is done. His body is completely destroyed. If so, that's another 1.75 mil. Ross has 1.1 that can be buried completely in the minors.

That will leave us roughly 12.8 mil for a dman, a backup goalie, and hopefully another forward.

A pipe dream maybe. Especially for a team that has managed the cap so poorly to date. But I'd love for another top 6 forward an a puck moving top 4 dman. This will bump certain players in the usage they belong in (Romanov, Pageau, etc), would should improve everyone's performance.

 

[Big L]

Every team in the league needs another top 6 forward and a puck moving top 4 dman.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

I see us trading Mayfield either way at deadline, he is good but isles can’t pay him 4+ a year in cap environment. I guess it possible we could get late first for him in some situation.

This would surprise me heavily. H-E-A-V-I-L-Y!

Unless this team flops in February AND Mayfield's agent simultaneously tells Lou that Mayfield is testing the free agent waters one way or another, just can't see it happening.

We've invested a ton of development time in this guy and if he can be kept around for 4-4.5 per, he'll continue to be worth every penny.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

The Isles need another top 6 forward and a puck moving defenseman. Chycrun would make sense, but the asking cost has been very high thus far and unlikely to come down (2 1st rounders and a top prospect per Friedman). We don't have a 2023 pick, and I don't think we can trade 2024 unless we know what the condition on 23 pick is. We also don't have a top prospect.

Is this a post from last summer?

Everyone knew what they needed then. Management's choice was to wait and see if we could actually get what we needed from within.

Now you'd have to go scorched earth to get these things at the most expensive time of the season and even then, this team may not have the assets to get guys who can actually contribute to a strong playoff run.

I'm seeing folks all around Islanderville saying, "Awesome! The Horvat move is the first thing we needed. Now we need asset X and asset Y too."

I'm sitting here thinking, "Horvat IS the move. That's it. Either he gives this group the kick it needs or you go into the offseason clearly knowing what you need for next season."

Again, this team has 30 games and basically needs to go 20-10 to wrap up a playoff spot. Maybe something like 17-11-2 squeeks them in if a few other teams falter along the way.

Anything's possible, but my hockey heart says this team hasn't got the horses and structure to beat the Bostons, Carolinas, and Tampas of this conference 4 out of 7 times.

I can't see this being the year to sell the farm and go all in.

 

[Chardo]

Bolduc announced as unavailable for the AHL all star game. Meaning Dobson is hurt, or Bolduc (or another D) is being traded.

 

[Skip To My Lou]

This would surprise me heavily. H-E-A-V-I-L-Y!

Unless this team flops in February AND Mayfield's agent simultaneously tells Lou that Mayfield is testing the free agent waters one way or another, just can't see it happening.

We've invested a ton of development time in this guy and if he can be kept around for 4-4.5 per, he'll continue to be worth every penny.

As much as I have liked Mayfield and what he's done for us, aren't you wary giving another 30+ year old $4M+ for four more years?

 

[SRBisles]

Is this a post from last summer?

Everyone knew what they needed then. Management's choice was to wait and see if we could actually get what we needed from within.

Now you'd have to go scorched earth to get these things at the most expensive time of the season and even then, this team may not have the assets to get guys who can actually contribute to a strong playoff run.

I'm seeing folks all around Islanderville saying, "Awesome! The Horvat move is the first thing we needed. Now we need asset X and asset Y too."

I'm sitting here thinking, "Horvat IS the move. That's it. Either he gives this group the kick it needs or you go into the offseason clearly knowing what you need for next season."

Again, this team has 30 games and basically needs to go 20-10 to wrap up a playoff spot. Maybe something like 17-11-2 squeeks them in if a few other teams falter along the way.

Anything's possible, but my hockey heart says this team hasn't got the horses and structure to beat the Bostons, Carolinas, and Tampas of this conference 4 out of 7 times.

I can't see this being the year to sell the farm and go all in.

Unless I'm missing something, I don't see why Lou would have VAN retain on Horvat if that was the only move. Plus, when asked if he would make another deal before the deadline, Lou said "if something presents itself, we'll do the best we can." That's pretty candid in Lou speak right there. There's certainly balls in the air.

I'd actually be shocked if there wasn't at least one more move before the deadline personally, as long as they're still in the mix.

 

[Zeeker]

Unless I'm missing something, I don't see why Lou would have VAN retain on Horvat if that was the only move. Plus, when asked if he would make another deal before the deadline, Lou said "if something presents itself, we'll do the best we can." That's pretty candid in Lou speak right there. There's certainly balls in the air.

I'd actually be shocked if there wasn't at least one more move before the deadline personally, as long as they're still in the mix.

That’s what Lou always says.

We might also be looking too much into the 25% retaining, it could’ve just been to even out the cap hits between the two main players in the trade.

 

[DerekKingSnipes]

This would surprise me heavily. H-E-A-V-I-L-Y!

Unless this team flops in February AND Mayfield's agent simultaneously tells Lou that Mayfield is testing the free agent waters one way or another, just can't see it happening.

We've invested a ton of development time in this guy and if he can be kept around for 4-4.5 per, he'll continue to be worth every penny.

You might be right I just don’t see us being able to keep him around even at this price. As good as he is he’s probably our number five guy.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

Mayfield and Varlamov for that matter came off the trade table once we added Horvat.

The only way those two get moved is if we stink up the joint in the days prior to the deadline- and even then Lou probably won't move them...

 

[Mike C]

Mayfield and Varlamov for that matter came off the trade table once we added Horvat.

The only way those two get moved is if we stink up the joint in the days prior to the deadline- and even then Lou probably won't move them...

I tend to agree 100 percent

 

[Mike C]

You might be right I just don’t see us being able to keep him around even at this price. As good as he is he’s probably our number five guy.

As shitty as Romanov looks sometimes, and given that Pulock has lost a step and how Dobson has defense lapses, one could say Mayfield is like our 2nd and a half best guy

 

[DerekKingSnipes]

As shitty as Romanov looks sometimes, and given that Pulock has lost a step and how Dobson has defense lapses, one could say Mayfield is like our 2nd and a half best guy

Pulock hasn’t lost a step, he doesn’t produce offense like everyone expects but he has played well defensively as usual. I don’t get the Pulock hate at all. He and Pelech together are a legitimate shut down pair. Perhaos this is why we are even rumored at all around Chychrun

 

[Mike C]

Pulock hasn’t lost a step, he doesn’t produce offense like everyone expects but he has played well defensively as usual. I don’t get the Pulock hate at all. He and Pelech together are a legitimate shut down pair. Perhaos this is why we are even rumored at all around Chychrun

Someone noted that he hasn't looked quite the same since his injury. I think vs faster skating teams, I see it more. No doubt he looks better beside Pelech but who wouldn't right?

I don't hate Pulock at all but do love Mayfield.

Reminds me of fantasy baseball drafts....get this guy, keep that guy, no we like him. One time me and my partner just looked at each other slapped each other five, laughed and said in tandem, "Let's get everybody"

 

[MarsTBOW]

Bolduc skips AHL all-star game so this must mean he stays with the big club and still fills in for Dobers..... Hope Dobson gets past this injury, but the extra rest may have actually done him well..

 

[JPIsles18]

Is this a post from last summer?

Everyone knew what they needed then. Management's choice was to wait and see if we could actually get what we needed from within.

Now you'd have to go scorched earth to get these things at the most expensive time of the season and even then, this team may not have the assets to get guys who can actually contribute to a strong playoff run.

I'm seeing folks all around Islanderville saying, "Awesome! The Horvat move is the first thing we needed. Now we need asset X and asset Y too."

I'm sitting here thinking, "Horvat IS the move. That's it. Either he gives this group the kick it needs or you go into the offseason clearly knowing what you need for next season."

Again, this team has 30 games and basically needs to go 20-10 to wrap up a playoff spot. Maybe something like 17-11-2 squeeks them in if a few other teams falter along the way.

Anything's possible, but my hockey heart says this team hasn't got the horses and structure to beat the Bostons, Carolinas, and Tampas of this conference 4 out of 7 times.

I can't see this being the year to sell the farm and go all in.

I agree with all of this.

With Lou, he's predictably unpredictable. For instance, we knew we needed a top line forward. There were several out there in the offseason at different price points (Fiala, Debrincat, JG, etc.) However, I think Lou only tries to get Lou type of players (Kadri, Horvat, etc). I believe he tries to obtain players he feel will succeed in the playoffs. Hence, the Horvat deal.

What I'm afraid of is that Lou doesn't seem to be in tune with what the rest of the league is doing because of the magic Trotz worked with a flawed roster during those two runs. Even though we needed a top 4 puck moving defenseman, I can absolutely giving up assets to obtain a Luke Schenn at the deadline. Or a Josh Anderson. The top of the league is getting it done with mostly skill and speed with a bit of grit sprinkled in. Lou builds with grit and grind with a bit of skill and speed sprinkled in.

With that being said, at the beginning of the year we were realistically 3 players away from being true contenders: two top 6 forwards and a top 4 puck moving dman. What does Lou do? trade a 13th overall pick on a developing defensive dman with limited offensive upside. Again, Romanov is known for his compete and grit. He hits hard. He didn't do enough at any level to make anybody think he could be a competent puck moving presence. We'll never know what else was available, and Romanov has actually been decent the last 30 games or so. However, a team that's acting like the window is open for the next 1-2 years, acquiring a guy like Romanov made no sense.

Horvat is legitimately a 1st line player. I believe he is an ideal player to unlock Barzal. Horvat has done a really nice job finding soft spots in high danger areas. Hopefully that translates in real life.

 

[DerekKingSnipes]

Someone noted that he hasn't looked quite the same since his injury. I think vs faster skating teams, I see it more. No doubt he looks better beside Pelech but who wouldn't right?

I don't hate Pulock at all but do love Mayfield.

Reminds me of fantasy baseball drafts....get this guy, keep that guy, no we like him. One time me and my partner just looked at each other slapped each other five, laughed and said in tandem, "Let's get everybody"

Ultimately it’s money thing I think, mayfield has value and is me of the better defender on the penalty kill in league but I just can’t see way we keep him long term at 4+ a year.

I tend to agree 100 percent

I really think Mayfield is dealt, even it’s for a pick that Lou uses in some other deal. In cap situation they are in how can we afford him at 4+ a year?