Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[MJF]

100% Fasching is a better top nine option than Bailey right now. Beauvillier too but Lambert likes him with Nelson too much apparently...

Somebody has to keep feeding Nelson. Nelson is starting to score again.

Barzal passing to Beauvillier only for him to airmail, fan, or shank his opportunities 8 out of 10 times is counter-productive.

 

[seabass45]

selling at the deadline is an easy choice. so is trading nelson at the draft for picks/prospects.

what to do with pulock is harder. you get an overpay, and you have to think about it.

There’s nothing hard about what to do with Pulock. He has a full NTC.

 

[leeroggy]

I'd like to start a new thread and analyze whether we are actually going about a rebuild quietly without a lot of fanfare, but my New Thread button and my Like button have been disabled because I am a BAD BOY according to one Mod here . . . so if this disappears, you'll know he/she has suspended me for a while . . .

So, here we go.

What if Lou and Lane are quietly letting the season play out as they started it? With one more year to show they believed in the core and wanted to give them one more shot, seeing last year as the outlier?

Would it not play out like this anyway? Would Lane's patience and reticence at press conferences not be exactly like it is now? Along with Lou's silence and patience? Lou gave the team what they wanted in the offseason by elevating the coach who would allow a more aggressive game plan offensively? Putting the onus on the players to prove themselves?

Okay.

Now we are more than half a season in and, to pretty much everyone, there's a track record to think about. And it's not what would be called positive. And I doubt Lou's going into next year with the same philosophy, nor will he just say 'injuries caused this'. It's an older team and you can't assume health anymore.

We've seen Holmstrom, Dufour, Aho, Salo, Wotherspoon, Fasching, Raty and a few others already cycled into the lineup for a look or a cup of coffee. Not the older, more experienced Bridgeport players you would see if we were more of a Cup contender. I have to believe behind the scenes that the ownership, Lou and Lane are all on the same path in their thinking. 'We gave them a shot, now the rebuild starts'.

There's 40 days until the trade deadline and we don't know what the 2023-24 Cap will be, nor will we likely until after. The issue of the retention by the league seems dependent on playoff revenue generated. There are a few traditional markets like Chicago, Montreal, Philadelphia and Detroit that are not likely going to producing playoff money, so that has to hurt some in projecting a Cap increase.

Nelson - 16 team Modified NTC going forward
Pageau - same clause
Lee - NTC, Modifeid in 2 years - doesn't matter since you do need a few vets who can guide a rebuild, and he should be pretty good for that.
Palmieri - same as Nelson and Pageau starting next season
Pulock - probably not going to be available for the same reason as Lee, and his NTC is firm until 2027-8
Pelech - going nowhere, NTC until 2025-6, and the contract is fine

Buyouts: Bailey and Beau, if they can't be swapped, but Beau is probably going to be here since his salary and production are pretty much in line for a 3rd liner.

Clutterbuck and Martin can be bought out anyhow and the way Martin is playing, he could be traded for a late pick if needed (I'd bet Toronto would take him back for a 5th in a minute, as would Boston)

That's the playing field right now.

Over the next 18 months, I see this team looking substantially different, as it will take some time to find the right rebuild pieces. Our fan base has been through a lot, and it's going to be tested some more. No getting away from it.

I think we need to ask the M-NTC's for their lists (if it already hasn't happened) and see if one rebuild trade can happen over the next 40 days. Here's what we have until then:

DATE	OPPONENT	TIME
Mon, Jan 23	@Toronto	7:00 PM
Wed, Jan 25	@Ottawa	7:00 PM
Fri, Jan 27	vsDetroit	7:00 PM
Sat, Jan 28	vsVegas	7:30 PM
Mon, Feb 6	@Philadelphia	7:00 PM
Tue, Feb 7	vsSeattle	7:30 PM
Thu, Feb 9	vsVancouver	7:30 PM
Sat, Feb 11	@Montreal	12:30 PM
Tue, Feb 14	vsOttawa	7:30 PM
Fri, Feb 17	vsPittsburgh	7:00 PM
Sat, Feb 18	@Boston	5:00 PM
Mon, Feb 20	@Pittsburgh	7:00 PM
Wed, Feb 22	vsWinnipeg	7:00 PM
Fri, Feb 24	vsLos Angeles	7:30 PM
Sun, Feb 26	@Winnipeg	3:00 PM
Tue, Feb 28	@Minnesota	8:00 PM

The next 10 games are really the season. 7 wins at a minimum or we're cooked.

Right now, it looks like Nelson, Pageau, Mayfield, Varly and Beau are our only possible rebuild chips. Wally isn't going anywhere if we rebuild.

So, how to maximize value? As Shakespeare wrote, 'that is the question'. Not going to be easy.

Buffalo has plenty of cap space and games in hand on many of the teams in front of them. Detroit has some too. We could also retain a little to make things easier. Maybe take back an expiring contract for a high pick.

Mayfield should be the easiest to move and Varly next. Martin is also easy to move.

Mayfield to Edmonton for Pool Party and a 1st (Pulju falls off as UFA and this gives Edmonton more Cap).

Would Pageau want to go back to Canada? Would Dadonov waive to come here? Pageau for Dadonov and the 2023 2nd/2024 3rd?

Would Boston do Smith and Reilly and a 2023 3rd for Beau and Martin? Smith is UFA and Reilly isn't onerous for 2023-24.

Who could handle Nelson? Maybe Arizona would want to have him to make their rebuild a little easier? Or Buffalo is the best place for him? All that Cap, with more coming in a few years. Nelson for Girgensons (also UFA after this), Peterka and the 2023 1st and the lowest of their 3 2nd's?

This is where we need to be looking after the next 10 games if we don't make a move in the standings.

 

[seafoam]

Barzal, Beauvillier, Cizikas and Pageau are really the only forward options who can carry the puck through the center ice into the offensive zone with some regularity.

My guess why Beau is matched with Nelson, is that Lambert seems to like to keep his play drivers on separate lines.

Isles need more and better line drivers.

I’d rather see Nelson centering Barzal than Beauvillier with Nelson.

Somebody has to keep feeding Nelson. Nelson is starting to score again.

Barzal passing to Beauvillier only for him to airmail, fan, or shank his opportunities 8 out of 10 times is counter-productive.

Would rather see Nelson with Barzal, Pageau centering the second line, Cizikas the third line, and Räty the fourth line.

Nelson is the team’s best goalscorer, he should be with the team’s best playmaker.

 

[TeamKidd]

Trade as many assets not named sorokin barzal or dobson as you can for picks in this draft. That is the smart business move here. The NMCs complicate things for sure.

 

[Osakahaus]

Would Pageau want to go back to Canada? Would Dadonov waive to come here? Pageau for Dadonov and the 2023 2nd/2024 3rd?

Would Boston do Smith and Reilly and a 2023 3rd for Beau and Martin? Smith is UFA and Reilly isn't onerous for 2023-24.

Who could handle Nelson? Maybe Arizona would want to have him to make their rebuild a little easier? Or Buffalo is the best place for him? All that Cap, with more coming in a few years. Nelson for Girgensons (also UFA after this), Peterka and the 2023 1st and the lowest of their 3 2nd's?

This is where we need to be looking after the next 10 games if we don't make a move in the standings.

point of the matter is that if they go like 3-7 in their next 10, they're selling. I can't see this team going anywhere at all. My ideal trade partners are either the avalanche and nelson, or seattle and mayfield. we could get decent hauls for both, especially if they throw in a first. We need that, especially in this deep of a draft.

 

[YearlyLottery]

Somebody has to keep feeding Nelson. Nelson is starting to score again.

Barzal passing to Beauvillier only for him to airmail, fan, or shank his opportunities 8 out of 10 times is counter-productive.

It is going to be very telling on what the Islanders do with Nelson at the deadline or offseason.

I think with Sorokin commits to staying here with ink on a contract you can keep Nelson but if Sorokin won't sign you trade him. Nelson has turned into a 30-35 goal scorer in this league and he has not shown any sides of slowing down. While many here want Lee gone I don't really see much of an issue with him.

Lambert should be mixing in the Lee-Nelson-Barzal line for multiple times each period. They are money every single time they touch the ice.

 

[MJF]

I’d rather see Nelson centering Barzal than Beauvillier with Nelson.


Would rather see Nelson with Barzal, Pageau centering the second line, Cizikas the third line, and Räty the fourth line.

Nelson is the team’s best goalscorer, he should be with the team’s best playmaker.

At this point I’d go for Nelson centering Barzal.

Lambert probably believes he should keep Nelson and Barzal on different lines to spread the scoring, rather than have an all your eggs in one basket line. But its time to accept the fact that there’s not enough finishers/skill on our roster to support a balanced lineup where we can roll 3 lines, let alone 4 lines.

Load up the 1st line.

 

[TheWhiteWhale30]

I love what Fashing has done, but let's pump the breaks on superior. Fasching does not kill penalties and does not punish the other team like Cal does. He grinds and he has been great on the boards and I love how he drives to the net, but Cal is the better player.

Now, about his health - it is a concern and we may be seeing Cal's time on LTIR versus him being moved. I would try to move Bailey for Dickinson in a cap-saving move if we cannot find a better deal to dump Josh. Dickinson has better speed, can kill penalties, and can play in that role.

IMO, I believe Martin does not get resigned and retires after his contract.

I don’t know, I still feel Fasching is far superior ant this point. Especially when you can’t even stay healthy. Fasching doesn’t need to kill penalties to replace Cal. That being said, I am fine with it being an outside move to replace cal but to me.. if it is clutter vs fasching it is a no brainer for me. Love clutter but his days are done. Also, not all 4th liners need to be bangers. Martin can do that and Casey throws hits too. We could use a bit more speed and offense ability on that line to keep teams honest. We aren’t going to be able to replicate what the 4th line used to be.

 

[Glorydays22]

Love that we called up Bolduc...

I wonder what Lou is up to. I'm getting worried.

 

[DerekKingSnipes]

Love that we called up Bolduc...

I wonder what Lou is up to. I'm getting worried.

He could have or will be traded, I know sometimes that’s paper transaction that happens before a trade.

 

[MJF]

Love that we called up Bolduc...

I wonder what Lou is up to. I'm getting worried.

I’m worried Dobson got hurt and Pelech still isn’t ready.

 

[The Real JT]

I’m worried Dobson got hurt and Pelech still isn’t ready.

If that’s the case and both of them are out then well you know the rest. Hell, we’ve already seen that show. Didn’t think it could get worse.

 

[seafoam]

Love that we called up Bolduc...

I wonder what Lou is up to. I'm getting worried.

He's taking stock of his prospect pool to dump it all for Adam Henrique.

I’m worried Dobson got hurt and Pelech still isn’t ready.

Why would you be worried about that? Not like they are winning games with Dobson...

 

[Osakahaus]

Love that we called up Bolduc...

I wonder what Lou is up to. I'm getting worried.

Bolduc is replacing Dobson

oh baby this is bad

 

[duster19]

Love that we called up Bolduc...

I wonder what Lou is up to. I'm getting worried.

Is there anyone left. Ish maybe?

 

[Mike C]

I think its only “still early” because the Penguins are trying to match us loss for loss. Otherwise the separation in the standings is happening above us, not below us.

Pens have 3 in hand and

He's taking stock of his prospect pool to dump it all for Adam Henrique.


Why would you be worried about that? Not like they are winning games with Dobson...

Excellent point!!

 

[The Real JT]

He's taking stock of his prospect pool to dump it all for Adam Henrique.


Why would you be worried about that? Not like they are winning games with Dobson...

Let’s have Aho, our only remaining PMD, focus more on offense. That’ll do wonders for his limited defensive skills.

Back to the good old days on the PP with Pulock shooting high and wide or winding up on the shot long enough to get it blocked. To be fair, can the PP get any worse?

 

[Throttle]

It is going to be very telling on what the Islanders do with Nelson at the deadline or offseason.

I think with Sorokin commits to staying here with ink on a contract you can keep Nelson but if Sorokin won't sign you trade him. Nelson has turned into a 30-35 goal scorer in this league and he has not shown any sides of slowing down. While many here want Lee gone I don't really see much of an issue with him.

Lambert should be mixing in the Lee-Nelson-Barzal line for multiple times each period. They are money every single time they touch the ice.

Nelson or Pageau would be great additions for COL, LAK, or SEA.

 

[The Real JT]

Looks like Johnny Boychuk can still play. For the current team anyway.

 

[Throttle]

Fire Lou, GM Boychuk!

 

[Glorydays22]

Bolduc is replacing Dobson

oh baby this is bad

Where is the report Dobson is hurt?

 

[mm11]

yeeeeesh, I feel like Leon Hess. I just don't want to rebuild.

 

[Mike C]

Where is the report Dobson is hurt?

Rosner makes a reference to it on nyhockeynow dot com

 

[Mike C]

yeeeeesh, I feel like Leon Hess. I just don't want to rebuild.

Maybe we'll get those little green trucks though!