I'd like to start a new thread and analyze whether we are actually going about a rebuild quietly without a lot of fanfare, but my New Thread button and my Like button have been disabled because I am a BAD BOY according to one Mod here . . . so if this disappears, you'll know he/she has suspended me for a while . . .
So, here we go.
What if Lou and Lane are quietly letting the season play out as they started it? With one more year to show they believed in the core and wanted to give them one more shot, seeing last year as the outlier?
Would it not play out like this anyway? Would Lane's patience and reticence at press conferences not be exactly like it is now? Along with Lou's silence and patience? Lou gave the team what they wanted in the offseason by elevating the coach who would allow a more aggressive game plan offensively? Putting the onus on the players to prove themselves?
Okay.
Now we are more than half a season in and, to pretty much everyone, there's a track record to think about. And it's not what would be called positive. And I doubt Lou's going into next year with the same philosophy, nor will he just say 'injuries caused this'. It's an older team and you can't assume health anymore.
We've seen Holmstrom, Dufour, Aho, Salo, Wotherspoon, Fasching, Raty and a few others already cycled into the lineup for a look or a cup of coffee. Not the older, more experienced Bridgeport players you would see if we were more of a Cup contender. I have to believe behind the scenes that the ownership, Lou and Lane are all on the same path in their thinking. 'We gave them a shot, now the rebuild starts'.
There's 40 days until the trade deadline and we don't know what the 2023-24 Cap will be, nor will we likely until after. The issue of the retention by the league seems dependent on playoff revenue generated. There are a few traditional markets like Chicago, Montreal, Philadelphia and Detroit that are not likely going to producing playoff money, so that has to hurt some in projecting a Cap increase.
Nelson - 16 team Modified NTC going forward
Pageau - same clause
Lee - NTC, Modifeid in 2 years - doesn't matter since you do need a few vets who can guide a rebuild, and he should be pretty good for that.
Palmieri - same as Nelson and Pageau starting next season
Pulock - probably not going to be available for the same reason as Lee, and his NTC is firm until 2027-8
Pelech - going nowhere, NTC until 2025-6, and the contract is fine
Buyouts: Bailey and Beau, if they can't be swapped, but Beau is probably going to be here since his salary and production are pretty much in line for a 3rd liner.
Clutterbuck and Martin can be bought out anyhow and the way Martin is playing, he could be traded for a late pick if needed (I'd bet Toronto would take him back for a 5th in a minute, as would Boston)
That's the playing field right now.
Over the next 18 months, I see this team looking substantially different, as it will take some time to find the right rebuild pieces. Our fan base has been through a lot, and it's going to be tested some more. No getting away from it.
I think we need to ask the M-NTC's for their lists (if it already hasn't happened) and see if one rebuild trade can happen over the next 40 days. Here's what we have until then:
DATE | OPPONENT | TIME |
Mon, Jan 23 | @Toronto | 7:00 PM |
Wed, Jan 25 | @Ottawa | 7:00 PM |
Fri, Jan 27 | vsDetroit | 7:00 PM |
Sat, Jan 28 | vsVegas | 7:30 PM |
Mon, Feb 6 | @Philadelphia | 7:00 PM |
Tue, Feb 7 | vsSeattle | 7:30 PM |
Thu, Feb 9 | vsVancouver | 7:30 PM |
Sat, Feb 11 | @Montreal | 12:30 PM |
Tue, Feb 14 | vsOttawa | 7:30 PM |
Fri, Feb 17 | vsPittsburgh | 7:00 PM |
Sat, Feb 18 | @Boston | 5:00 PM |
Mon, Feb 20 | @Pittsburgh | 7:00 PM |
Wed, Feb 22 | vsWinnipeg | 7:00 PM |
Fri, Feb 24 | vsLos Angeles | 7:30 PM |
Sun, Feb 26 | @Winnipeg | 3:00 PM |
Tue, Feb 28 | @Minnesota | 8:00 PM |
The next 10 games are really the season. 7 wins at a minimum or we're cooked.
Right now, it looks like Nelson, Pageau, Mayfield, Varly and Beau are our only possible rebuild chips. Wally isn't going anywhere if we rebuild.
So, how to maximize value? As Shakespeare wrote, 'that is the question'. Not going to be easy.
Buffalo has plenty of cap space and games in hand on many of the teams in front of them. Detroit has some too. We could also retain a little to make things easier. Maybe take back an expiring contract for a high pick.
Mayfield should be the easiest to move and Varly next. Martin is also easy to move.
Mayfield to Edmonton for Pool Party and a 1st (Pulju falls off as UFA and this gives Edmonton more Cap).
Would Pageau want to go back to Canada? Would Dadonov waive to come here? Pageau for Dadonov and the 2023 2nd/2024 3rd?
Would Boston do Smith and Reilly and a 2023 3rd for Beau and Martin? Smith is UFA and Reilly isn't onerous for 2023-24.
Who could handle Nelson? Maybe Arizona would want to have him to make their rebuild a little easier? Or Buffalo is the best place for him? All that Cap, with more coming in a few years. Nelson for Girgensons (also UFA after this), Peterka and the 2023 1st and the lowest of their 3 2nd's?
This is where we need to be looking after the next 10 games if we don't make a move in the standings.