Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[PK Cronin]

Ironically Lou literally refuses to dump any UFA to be...And as a result that could lead the Isles to a "cycle of mediocrity" if their vets get older/decline and there are no picks/prospects to replace them with.

It could, that's why it's case by case, not a one shoe fits all.

 

[LeapOnOver]

Literally the opposite question an NHL GM should ask. The real question is...

Does losing Gaudreau for nothing justify a very unlikely Cup run?

Specific to Calgary, let's remember that this is a franchise that had won exactly TWO (2) playoff series since 2004. Plus they had missed the playoffs entirely in 20-21. There was very little to suggest they would all of a sudden put it all together and get close to a Cup...And they didn't.

Also if you did your homework on Gaudreau there were lots of rumblings that he wanted to return back east where he was from. In fact had the Flyers been able to clear out enough cap room prior to this offseason I'd bet that's where he'd be now. The Flames brass ignored that fact the way snow did with Vanek/Minny.

In the end the Flames both misread Gaudreau's intention to resign and his value to get the team the Cup. They lost on both fronts and so if they traded Gaudreau before last season it would have been the smart more no matter what they got back in return (but it would've been significant).



Ironically Lou literally refuses to dump any UFA to be...And as a result that could lead the Isles to a "cycle of mediocrity" if their vets get older/decline and there are no picks/prospects to replace them with.

You just aren't be honest, now. Calgary had strong metrics and were playing great hockey. There was a lot of underlying numbers (and the blossoming of Markstom, All-World Coach) there to suggest they had every reason to think that they could compete for the cup and I actually had them winning it in the finals against Florida in my bracket. I didn't think Avs goaltending was strong enough, but they proved me wrong. I know I wasn't the only one either. Like PK said, the message it sends to fans, other players and your own team is very important, and to say that getting value doesn't matter, that's silly.

Your criticism of Snow in the past have included lines like, (I don't care what he did well or not well, results are what matters). Then people on here say they won't be satisfied with anything but a Stanley Cup, and in the same breath are using the idea that only one team can win it so it's "unlikely". We say hockey is a business, but it's also still a product and perception matters. This Monday morning QB stuff is annoying. Again, no team has ever traded their star player in a season where they were expected to compete for a Stanley Cup (guarantee the entire franchise and fan base thought they could) because they were worried he wouldn't sign. The examples you brought up were completely different situations already outlined to you.

Lastly, guess who didn't trade their star players in a year to compete for the Stanley Cup, knowing they were going to test free agency, and then doubled down by going all out at the trade deadline? That's right, the CBJ. The same CBJ that signed Johnny Gaudreau (who was rumored to be an Isles target) and are poised to be pretty good this year. Mic drop....

 

[brakeyawself]

We here at this board have been here sooo long that we've long since left out the semantics. Naturally, nothing is surefire. But we make statements like this in the grand scheme of things.

In other words, for the 2023 draft, what I'd be saying is that aside from Bedard, Fantilli, and Mischkov at the top, we've got another 37 guys who are looking like MacTavish and Heiskanen style prospects as far as their NHL upside is concerned.

That's to point out just how massively promising this 23 draft is looking overall.



Dallas should be going for it now. Naturally. They also have a real nice prospect system.

Interesting though, to compare such things.

Dallas sent a non-top-10 pick in the heavily touted 2023 draft AND at least a 4th in 2025 for a very interesting and promising player in Lundkvist, who has what, 25 NHL games under his belt? And Lundkvist was demanding a trade.

The Islanders sent the 13th overall in a run-of-the-mill draft for the already established Romanov AND an early 4th rounder (Isaiah George, who we're starting to gush about already). And it wasn't like Montreal was dealing with a Romanov who wanted out.

They're both 22.

Interesting.


For each his own, but this assessment is counter to what we're all hearing from the big publications and independents in the scouting world. And as opposed to most fans, these agencies have access to extended materials to place all these players under the microscope with.

It's a special draft. Look forward to it!



It's fine. The hockey world knows what Lundkvist is for a prospect at the moment.

There's no telling who Dallas could have or might have picked next summer. So, they have a lot more certainty at the moment and the sky is surely the limit for Lundkvist - and many other youngsters in his shoes.

Whether Dallas paid too stiff a price won't be known for many years now and largely depends on Lundkvist's development and the NYR scouting staff.

-----So no semantics, just hyperbole? That's fine and all, all though I tend to think semantics are more valuable than hyperbole.

----- at least 37 prospects on the level of Heiskanen and MacTavish you say? Well, that is good news. In that case, I think every team should be attempting to trade their non top 5, early, mid 1st round picks for 2 or 3 late 1sts and early 2nds in some combo wouldn't you say? Doesn't really matter where you pick in the top 40, you are getting a prospect on the level of MacTavish and Heiskanen.......... yea, that's that hyperbole I'm talking about. There are not 37 players after Bedard, Fantilli, and Mischkov that are looking like they have MacTavish and Heiskanen upside.... there are players probably being overhyped as IF they had MacTavish and Heiskanen upside. Sure..

----- It is interesting.... and I thought it was an absolutely terrible trade for the Isles. But I guess we will see. As far as this being a run-of the mill draft, that was irrelevant when the Isles made the deal because there were obviously still prospects on the board that Chicago felt were worth enough to make that deal. So the overall value of the draft in such a case is meaningless. It took place on draft day, after the draft picks had been assigned, while the draft was taking place and players were already coming off the board...... comparing that to the Nils trade is a false equivalency in terms of the draft pick "value". The perceived value, a year out, is worth.... and this isn't just you..... way less than seeing a guy you want still undrafted, moving into a spot and taking him. And I wouldn't exactly say the Isles are the best at prospecting..... they are actually pretty terrible usually, in the last decade at least.... They got lucky getting Raty where they did. Dobson and Barzal are hits I would say...... that's about it so far. MAYBE Whalstrom does something eventually. And it's not like the Isles badly needed a mostly defensively oriented Dman more than the offensive talent that was still available. But that's their system or whatever, I guess they "don't need" offensive talent. And let me just say, Nazar has the chance to be every bit as good as any Center outside of the top 5-8 in the 2023 draft. The Isles certainly could have used Nazar, Lekker, Ostlund, Kemmel, Ohgren, Yurov.... probably more than they needed another defensive oriented D. I think in the long wrong, Nazar ends up a fantastic 1/2C and Chicago and Romanov will be very good...... a very good 2nd pair Dman who doesn't really do much offensively......

As far as Nils vs Romanov, they are two pretty different players I would say. Romanov has played some games, wouldn't exactly call him an established vet though and I don't think he's shown any guarantees of being much better than he is right now. There is more growth potential for Nils than Romanov, just based on watching them play.

-----Every year ---- this happens "these agencies have access to extended materials to place all these players under the microscope with." Yes, that's what scouts do. What they generally don't do is make broad exaggerations about hundreds of prospects lumped together. Maybe some scouts are saying "this is the greatest draft ever and there are 40 players with MacTavish like potential." But that is not what most are saying at all. They are saying this draft has some really good top end talent, it's pretty deep for forwards and some of these players might turn out elite. In aggregate, that's all they are actually saying. You and other pundits and overexcited fans infer all the rest and repurpose that information as hyperbole. Again, just like happened in 2021 which was supposed to be a terrible draft.... people were saying similar things about the 2022 draft. Fans wanted their teams to trade out of the 2021 draft so they could get extra 2022 and 2023 picks. Fans were begging for their teams to lose so they could get Shane Wright..... And I will say it again, right now that pretty "run of the mill" 2021 draft, that "lackluster" 2021 draft, is looking a bit better than the 2022 draft.... right now at least. That could certainly change in a year, two, three etc... But just as of right now, it seems most who were making these hyperbolic claims about the 2021 draft, were wrong. It wasn't "scouts" as a community, maybe some individuals, but it was fantasy players, pundits and fans more than not.

And this phenomenon is no different in any sport. Every NFL draft is the best or worst, until most just become, well, normal. I mean is this draft better than 2015? Because I don't think 2015 had 40 players with MacTavish and Heiskanen potential.... and I don't see any draft class any time soon matching that one.

---It's a regular draft class with possibly special players. Those are two different things. It's deep in forwards, some are deep in defense, some don't appear deep at first but become deep later, others appear deep and bust. Because it's the individual players that make or break things and NHL prospects, in general have an absolutely TERRIBLE success/failure rate. Second worst only to MLB. And top 15 picks have substantially higher success than second half of the 1st round. And after the first round, things get real ugly in terms of prospects hitting or missing or even turning out top players. This draft will be no different. These are very consistent patterns. That doesn't mean it won't be better than other drafts and maybe worse than some, it just means it will fall within a similar range of outcomes in the end.

-- The hockey world knows what Lundkvist is as a prospect now? So he must be worth a conditional 1st round pick in the 2023 NHL draft then, because that's what people in the hockey world paid for him.

 

[Big L]

TL;DR

 

[periferal]

You just aren't be honest, now. Calgary had strong metrics and were playing great hockey. There was a lot of underlying numbers (and the blossoming of Markstom, All-World Coach) there to suggest they had every reason to think that they could compete for the cup and I actually had them winning it in the finals against Florida in my bracket. I didn't think Avs goaltending was strong enough, but they proved me wrong. I know I wasn't the only one either. Like PK said, the message it sends to fans, other players and your own team is very important, and to say that getting value doesn't matter, that's silly.

Your criticism of Snow in the past have included lines like, (I don't care what he did well or not well, results are what matters). Then people on here say they won't be satisfied with anything but a Stanley Cup, and in the same breath are using the idea that only one team can win it so it's "unlikely". We say hockey is a business, but it's also still a product and perception matters. This Monday morning QB stuff is annoying. Again, no team has ever traded their star player in a season where they were expected to compete for a Stanley Cup (guarantee the entire franchise and fan base thought they could) because they were worried he wouldn't sign. The examples you brought up were completely different situations already outlined to you.

Lastly, guess who didn't trade their star players in a year to compete for the Stanley Cup, knowing they were going to test free agency, and then doubled down by going all out at the trade deadline? That's right, the CBJ. The same CBJ that signed Johnny Gaudreau (who was rumored to be an Isles target) and are poised to be pretty good this year. Mic drop....

You're not truly listening to what I'm saying. Thus you're tweaking my points to something else to make yours.

I'm not "Monday morning QB'ing" anything - I'm discussing the same opinions I had years ago. You'll never do it, but you could go back and check my opinions on what the Isles should have done with Tavares (traded him) or what Columbus did in 2019 (not trade futures for a Cup they were never going to win) back when they actually happened. They're the same today.

In the end your "mic drop" is to praise an organization that's literally won ONE (1) playoff series in the history of their franchise. Not sure if your standards are too low or your goal is to not win the Stanley Cup, but not a great look.

 

[PK Cronin]

You're not truly listening to what I'm saying. Thus you're tweaking my points to something else to make yours.

I'm not "Monday morning QB'ing" anything - I'm discussing the same opinions I had years ago. You'll never do it, but you could go back and check my opinions on what the Isles should have done with Tavares (traded him) or what Columbus did in 2019 (not trade futures for a Cup they were never going to win) back when they actually happened. They're the same today.

In the end your "mic drop" is to praise an organization that's literally won ONE (1) playoff series in the history of their franchise. Not sure if your standards are too low or your goal is to not win the Stanley Cup, but not a great look.

While I disagree with your opinion I will say that you definitely said the same thing in both the Tavares situation and the Columbus one.

 

[seafoam]

PK is right, you can’t just offload every impending UFA in the summer of their contract year. Agents would sniff that out so fast…

The Islanders don’t sign high end UFAs, but for the most part they retain their draft picks who pan out. No reason to also put that in danger…

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

Pulock's % of his shots hitting the target (either goals or saves) is actually better than NHL average for defensemen. It's called "thru %" and you can find it on advanced stats sites. Although it's not really an "advanced" stat. All it measures is how many times you hit/miss the net.

I want to know the % of his shots that hit the net when he has an unimpeded view/path of the net. As the evidence suggests, he does an above average job of getting pucks on net, but when he has an open opportunity it sure feels like he misses the nets a majority of the time.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

I want to know the % of his shots that hit the net when he has an unimpeded view/path of the net. As the evidence suggests, he does an above average job of getting pucks on net, but when he has an open opportunity it sure feels like he misses the nets a majority of the time.

Wouldn't it be better to get a shot on net with traffic/screens in front?

 

[Mike C]

Wouldn't it be better to get a shot on net with traffic/screens in front?

Yes

 

[LeapOnOver]

You're not truly listening to what I'm saying. Thus you're tweaking my points to something else to make yours.

I'm not "Monday morning QB'ing" anything - I'm discussing the same opinions I had years ago. You'll never do it, but you could go back and check my opinions on what the Isles should have done with Tavares (traded him) or what Columbus did in 2019 (not trade futures for a Cup they were never going to win) back when they actually happened. They're the same today.

In the end your "mic drop" is to praise an organization that's literally won ONE (1) playoff series in the history of their franchise. Not sure if your standards are too low or your goal is to not win the Stanley Cup, but not a great look.

Yet, how can you win a Stanley Cup without attracting at least a prime UFA from time to time? And how can you attract a prime UFA by sending the message that you'll trade them when they don't answer your ultimatum about re-signing before the season starts? I am listening to what you are saying, but it's so hard to get around the contradiction maybe I do end up tuning out.

 

[leeroggy]

Wouldn't it be better to get a shot on net with traffic/screens in front?

Heck no, Pulock is the decoy, just like Jimmy Chitwood was supposed to be in Hoosiers until the team rebelled. No one rebelled against BT.

Come on, it's clear!

 

[Doshell Propivo]

Yet, how can you win a Stanley Cup without attracting at least a prime UFA from time to time? And how can you attract a prime UFA by sending the message that you'll trade them when they don't answer your ultimatum about re-signing before the season starts? I am listening to what you are saying, but it's so hard to get around the contradiction maybe I do end up tuning out.

Exactly. By his logic, no team should ever trade for a pending UFA. I mean, if you're a cup contender and your star player will not re-sign A YEAR BEFORE (!) their contract is up, otherwise you dump them, why would it be a good idea for other teams to trade for that player?

The answer is obvious. Because there IS value in that player. No team with legitimate cup aspirations is going to trade a franchise player simply because he refuses to re-sign a year early. That's just silly.

 

[periferal]

Yet, how can you win a Stanley Cup without attracting at least a prime UFA from time to time? And how can you attract a prime UFA by sending the message that you'll trade them when they don't answer your ultimatum about re-signing before the season starts? I am listening to what you are saying, but it's so hard to get around the contradiction maybe I do end up tuning out.

You are seriously overrating free agency...And the role of trading players affecting it. Look at all the big/long-term UFA deals given out every summer. Most of them look average or worse a few years later, but more importantly...

How many teams over the past 20 years won a Cup BECAUSE of a UFA signing? The only one I can think that would be close would be Marian Hossa with the Blackhawks. That said pretty much every team wins a Cup because of a core of players that were established THROUGH THE DRAFT and the occasional trade.

And the team you tried to "mic drop" on with your last reply to me traded Seth Jones a year ago because he wouldn't resign with them, and yet would you look at that - One year later they sign the biggest UFA of this offseason. I guess bad PR only lasts a few months.

Sheesh.

At the end of the day if you could go back 5 years and you still wouldn't trade Tavares to do what's best for the Islanders franchise (knowing he's definitely walking) because of some overrated perception of how it would "look" then wholly shit.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

You are seriously overrating free agency...And the role of trading players affecting it. Look at all the big/long-term UFA deals given out every summer. Most of them look average or worse a few years later, but more importantly...

How many teams over the past 20 years won a Cup BECAUSE of a UFA signing? The only one I can think that would be close would be Marian Hossa with the Blackhawks. That said pretty much every team wins a Cup because of a core of players that were established THROUGH THE DRAFT and the occasional trade.

And the team you tried to "mic drop" on with your last reply to me traded Seth Jones a year ago because he wouldn't resign with them, and yet would you look at that - One year later they sign the biggest UFA of this offseason. I guess bad PR only lasts a few months.

Sheesh.

At the end of the day if you could go back 5 years and you still wouldn't trade Tavares to do what's best for the Islanders franchise (knowing he's definitely walking) because of some overrated perception of how it would "look" then wholly shit.

More importantly, how many teams won a cup despite dumping their star players because they were one year away from UFA? Should the Avalanche have dumped Kadri last year?

 

[PK Cronin]

You are seriously overrating free agency...And the role of trading players affecting it. Look at all the big/long-term UFA deals given out every summer. Most of them look average or worse a few years later, but more importantly...

How many teams over the past 20 years won a Cup BECAUSE of a UFA signing? The only one I can think that would be close would be Marian Hossa with the Blackhawks. That said pretty much every team wins a Cup because of a core of players that were established THROUGH THE DRAFT and the occasional trade.

And the team you tried to "mic drop" on with your last reply to me traded Seth Jones a year ago because he wouldn't resign with them, and yet would you look at that - One year later they sign the biggest UFA of this offseason. I guess bad PR only lasts a few months.

Sheesh.

At the end of the day if you could go back 5 years and you still wouldn't trade Tavares to do what's best for the Islanders franchise (knowing he's definitely walking) because of some overrated perception of how it would "look" then wholly shit.

The vast majority of the Colorado roster that just won is from either trades or were UFAs. I want to say they had 6 home grown players on the roster but that's going off memory and could be wrong.

 

[NC 1972]

More importantly, how many teams won a cup despite dumping their star players because they were one year away from UFA? Should the Avalanche have dumped Kadri last year?

If they had they wouldn't have one the cup , because St. Louis wouldn't have loosed their goaltender and Colorado would have been beaten.

 

[periferal]

More importantly, how many teams won a cup despite dumping their star players because they were one year away from UFA? Should the Avalanche have dumped Kadri last year?

Do you want to continue to have a black and white discussion where you'll always be right, or do you want to join reality where things are more nuanced?

If you're as close as the Avs were to the Cup last season you do NOT trade UFA's, keep everyone together, and even ADD at the deadline to fill in any holes.

Now if you think the 2017-2018 Isles were even in the same stratosphere that the 21-22 Avs were in terms of being close to the Cup (which was then proved when the Isles couldn't even make the playoffs WITH Tavares) , then I think we're done here.

The vast majority of the Colorado roster that just won is from either trades or were UFAs. I want to say they had 6 home grown players on the roster but that's going off memory and could be wrong.

Do you have to be the Devil's Advocate in every single post...? Why just "go off memory" and quickly knee-jerk a reply, when instead you can do the research and then post?


MacKinnon
Ladneskog
Rantonen
Makar
Toews
Kadri
Girard
Compher
Burakovsky
Lekhonen
Johnson
Newhook
Byram


Every one of those guys was either drafted by the Avs or traded for by them. And following up from my previous post, the point is that the teams that win the Cup almost always have a CORE OF PLAYERS that they've either DRAFTED or TRADED FOR - Not signed via free agency.

The Avs 100% fit into this group...As did the Lightning, Penguins, Kings, Blackhawks, and basically every team that's won the Cup over the past 20 years.

Point is of the 3 main ways to acquire players (draft, trade, sign UFAs), if you're trying to win a Cup the "sign UFA's part" of acquiring players is easily the least important and the data backs that up.

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

Wouldn't it be better to get a shot on net with traffic/screens in front?

No, it would be better to SCORE when you have time and room to shoot.

He eliminates the possibility of scoring when he has all the time in the world and pulls a Fulton Reed by missing the net by 20 feet.

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

The vast majority of the Colorado roster that just won is from either trades or were UFAs. I want to say they had 6 home grown players on the roster but that's going off memory and could be wrong.

Their two best players were home grown, possibly three best depending on how you rank Landsekog.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

Do you want to continue to have a black and white discussion where you'll always be right, or do you want to join reality where things are more nuanced?

If you're as close as the Avs were to the Cup last season you do NOT trade UFA's, keep everyone together, and even ADD at the deadline to fill in any holes.

Now if you think the 2017-2018 Isles were even in the same stratosphere that the 21-22 Avs were in terms of being close to the Cup (which was then proved when the Isles couldn't even make the playoffs WITH Tavares) , then I think we're done here.







Do you have to be the Devil's Advocate in every single post...? Why just "go off memory" and quickly knee-jerk a reply, when instead you can do the research and then post?


MacKinnon
Ladneskog
Rantonen
Makar
Toews
Kadri
Girard
Compher
Burakovsky
Lekhonen
Johnson
Newhook
Byram


Every one of those guys was either drafted by the Avs or traded for by them. And following up from my previous post, the point is that the teams that win the Cup almost always have a CORE OF PLAYERS that they've either DRAFTED or TRADED FOR - Not signed via free agency.

The Avs 100% fit into this group...As did the Lightning, Penguins, Kings, Blackhawks, and basically every team that's won the Cup over the past 20 years.

Point is of the 3 main ways to acquire players (draft, trade, sign UFAs), if you're trying to win a Cup the "sign UFA's part" of acquiring players is easily the least important and the data backs that up.

Get a freakin grip dude and relax...

No team with cup aspirations is going to trade their franchise player. Period. (so yes, we're done here).

 

[Doshell Propivo]

No, it would be better to SCORE when you have time and room to shoot.

He eliminates the possibility of scoring when he has all the time in the world and pulls a Fulton Reed by missing the net by 20 feet.

I don't think the knock on him is that he misses glorious scoring opportunities. I think it's that his shots miss the net. I get what you're saying though. I just thought it was interesting to see that statistic.

Their two best players were home grown, possibly three best depending on how you rank Landsekog.

Yes. A good chunk of their "core" was drafted.

 

[PK Cronin]

Do you have to be the Devil's Advocate in every single post...? Why just "go off memory" and quickly knee-jerk a reply, when instead you can do the research and then post?

I'm at work so I'm going off memory and getting my thoughts out before I forget and if you don't like it then you can skip the post.

Also, it turns out my memory was correct. There were 6 total players from the cup winning Avalanche that were drafted by the team, so nothing I said was incorrect and I'm not sure what you're going on about.

MacKinnon
Ladneskog
Rantonen
Makar
Toews
Kadri
Girard
Compher
Burakovsky
Lekhonen
Johnson
Newhook
Byram


Every one of those guys was either drafted by the Avs or traded for by them. And following up from my previous post, the point is that the teams that win the Cup almost always have a CORE OF PLAYERS that they've either DRAFTED or TRADED FOR - Not signed via free agency.

The Avs 100% fit into this group...As did the Lightning, Penguins, Kings, Blackhawks, and basically every team that's won the Cup over the past 20 years.

Point is of the 3 main ways to acquire players (draft, trade, sign UFAs), if you're trying to win a Cup the "sign UFA's part" of acquiring players is easily the least important and the data backs that up.

You're upset I said that most of their roster was from trades or UFAs and then presented a list of players drafted or from trades. I think you're missing the overlap of the "trade" part.

I didn't disagree with the core players part or the traded part.

Where I disagreed with you is in your proclamation that every UFA to be should traded if they're unwilling to re-sign, because I think a single size approach is incorrect. You've clarified that in this post saying it's more nuanced which leads me to believe we're in agreement for the most part but the area of disagreement would be on what constitutes as a legitimate contender.

Their two best players were home grown, possibly three best depending on how you rank Landsekog.

I didn't say they weren't.

 

[Mike C]

Get a freakin grip dude and relax...

No team with cup aspirations is going to trade their franchise player. Period. (so yes, we're done here).

guy asked me one time a general question "do i want to be right or do i want to be happy" i told him "being right makes me happy" he tersely retorted "no it doesn't" hahaha

the conversation was generic in nature but was germane to husband/wife issues.....you being asked that question reminded me that my buddy was right.

 

[mm11]

guy asked me one time a general question "do i want to be right or do i want to be happy" i told him "being right makes me happy" he tersely retorted "no it doesn't" hahaha

the conversation was generic in nature but was germane to husband/wife issues.....you being asked that question reminded me that my buddy was right.

Mike: never forget: It's easy to grin / When your ship comes in / And you've got the stock market beat. / But the man worthwhile, / Is the man who can smile, / When his shorts are too tight in the seat.