Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[periferal]

The difference with those scenarios were that Jones and Tkachuk both said to their GMs they weren’t going to sign long term.

Tavares didn’t do that and actually stated he didn’t want to be traded in the season and had a NMC to back that up.

And this is just where I differ with most people on these boards (and in the world).

I honestly don't care much about what people say - I care about what they do. Therefore I watch people's actions as opposed to listen to their words.

So to me when I'm watching Tavares not resign with the Isles as of July 1, 2017, and then days turn into weeks and then turn into months...To me he is telling the Isles that he's not going to resign.

The bottom line is that any owner/GM needs to put the team over the player. If they want to resign, great. But don't just say it - Actually do it and then there's no issue. If they don't actually do it, then you must assume they won't and protect the team by trading that player.

So I absolutely lump the Tavares situation in with the Seth Jones, Tkachuk, and Gaudreau situations. And twice the team got it right, and twice the team didn't.

The sad thing is that it's Lou who sees this team as built to win now.

And his message to Islanderville is that a new coach in his first head coaching gig plus two younger, more mobile Dmen to replace Greene and Chara are the only tweaks the team needed to (continue to) be built for winning now.

At least to start the season...

But he might be right.

But odds are he's wrong. Doesn't mean we shouldn't try of course, but he needs to be very careful.

And the scariest part is if Lou remains absolutely stubborn in that "win now" conviction so if this season starts going average or worse, because he won't keep an open mind he starts dumping assets like the 23/24 1st, Raty, Dufour, etc to chase a dream that's never going to happen.

 

[Mike C]

And this is just where I differ with most people on these boards (and in the world).

I honestly don't care much about what people say - I care about what they do. Therefore I watch people's actions as opposed to listen to their words.

So to me when I'm watching Tavares not resign with the Isles as of July 1, 2017, and then days turn into weeks and then turn into months...To me he is telling the Isles that he's not going to resign.

The bottom line is that any owner/GM needs to put the team over the player. If they want to resign, great. But don't just say it - Actually do it and then there's no issue. If they don't actually do it, then you must assume they won't and protect the team by trading that player.

So I absolutely lump the Tavares situation in with the Seth Jones, Tkachuk, and Gaudreau situations. And twice the team got it right, and twice the team didn't.



But odds are he's wrong. Doesn't mean we shouldn't try of course, but he needs to be very careful.

And the scariest part is if Lou remains absolutely stubborn in that "win now" conviction so if this season starts going average or worse, because he won't keep an open mind he starts dumping assets like the 23/24 1st, Raty, Dufour, etc to chase a dream that's never going to happen.

or put in old time bensonhurst PS 226 lingo "action talks bullshit walks"

 

[periferal]

IDK. The Isles top 4 defense have some of the best D contracts in the league - all negotiated by Lou.

I am very interested to see how the D plays this year without perhaps the best defensive coach in NHL history behind the bench. Aside from Dobson they're all basically defensive defensemen, so will they be asked to try and provide offense that they arent' capable of? And without a strong defensive system will any of them be exposed?

I hope those contract values all look good a year from now, but assuming they do we still need to add some elite talent somewhere on the roster, and gumming up the cap with Mayfield's next 30+ year old deal might not be the best move - No matter how good Lou makes the contract look.

 

[leeroggy]

I am very interested to see how the D plays this year without perhaps the best defensive coach in NHL history behind the bench. Aside from Dobson they're all basically defensive defensemen, so will they be asked to try and provide offense that they arent' capable of? And without a strong defensive system will any of them be exposed?

I hope those contract values all look good a year from now, but assuming they do we still need to add some elite talent somewhere on the roster, and gumming up the cap with Mayfield's next 30+ year old deal might not be the best move - No matter how good Lou makes the contract look.

Offense they are not capable of? Maybe it's the reverse? Their skill was suppressed by the system?

Mayfield has scored some big-time goals at important times

Pelech's last two years in Junior he had 77 assists in 119 games

Pulock and Dobson are established offensively

Pelech, in particular, certainly showed more offensively last year. He carried the puck out far more than before and was aggressive when leading the rush.

 

[periferal]

Offense they are not capable of? Maybe it's the reverse? Their skill was suppressed by the system?

Mayfield has scored some big-time goals at important times

Pelech's last two years in Junior he had 77 assists in 119 games

Pulock and Dobson are established offensively

Pelech, in particular, certainly showed more offensively last year. He carried the puck out far more than before and was aggressive when leading the rush.

Thus...

It was asked as a question, wrapped up in the overall curiosity of...."I am very interested to see how the D plays this year without perhaps the best defensive coach in NHL history behind the bench."

 

[leeroggy]

Thus...

It was asked as a question, wrapped up in the overall curiosity of...."I am very interested to see how the D plays this year without perhaps the best defensive coach in NHL history behind the bench."

Either way, we're both intrigued

I just think BT wore them down with the type of defensive system and blocking that many shots takes a toll. Similar to Tortorella. Over time, it takes a toll mentally too.

 

[MJF]

Thus...

It was asked as a question, wrapped up in the overall curiosity of...."I am very interested to see how the D plays this year without perhaps the best defensive coach in NHL history behind the bench."

Trotz’s system didn’t make Pulock’s shot hit the glass like he was Wild Thing Vaughn.

 

[leeroggy]

Trotz’s system didn’t make Pulock’s shot hit the glass like he was Wild Thing Vaughn.

As the dorky Defense Secretary in Independence Day said . . . "that's not entirely accurate, Mr. President". There was certainly an approach Barry took to shots at goal. Now, Pulock certainly had a hand in it too, but with his slap shot speed, it certainly made thinking about placement more problematic for him.

 

[benedictTavares]

Trotz’s system didn’t make Pulock’s shot hit the glass like he was Wild Thing Vaughn.

 

[periferal]

Either way, we're both intrigued

I just think BT wore them down with the type of defensive system and blocking that many shots takes a toll. Similar to Tortorella. Over time, it takes a toll mentally too.

I think that's true.

The problem is that we may find out that this team doesn't have enough talent to win without that incredibly disciplined defensive system.

Even scarier - The GM who fired that superb defensive coach might double down on the monster he created and trade away the limited futures we have for a team just not good enough to win it all.

 

[LeapOnOver]

I've already answered this earlier, so didn't know I had to explain it to you again.

When Gaudreau didn't resign with the Calgary last summer, they should've traded BEFORE last season started. That way you don't have to make a much tougher situation if your team is in Cup contention.

If you think that's crazy, well it's what the Isles should've done with Tavares, what the Blackhawks did with Seth Jones...AND WHAT CALGARY JUST DID WITH MATT TKACHUK.

The Flames got the Tkchuck situation right and the Gaudreau situation wrong. You need to always protect the organization, and no player (not even an elite talent) is immune to that

So you think they would have gotten enough value from trading one year of Gaudreau? Enough to equal their opportunity to win a Stanley cup? They are just lucky Huberdeau resigned because they didn't get the value back for Tkachuck either without Huberdeau extending. They caught lightning in a bottle once, doubt they could have done it back to back trading Gaudreau before the season started.

 

[LeapOnOver]

I don't do "I TOLD YOU SOs." Never have. It's childish. And believe me, nobody will be happier than me to be wrong about this team as I go to nearly every home game. I don't want to sit through another lost season.

Everything short of a Cup is not a failure, unless you're George Steinbrenner or one of our longwinded regulars here on HFIsles. But what is acceptable for folks here? A 2nd round exit? Getting back to the semifinals and losing there? We'll soon see what everyone has the stomach for.

Our first pre-season game starts in 9 hours. As always, in the first game I'm looking for someone who is ticketed for the AHL to push a vet for a job. That, and nobody gets hurt. LGI.

Well it's going to be a failure. We aren't going to beat Colorado, lol. I'll consider it a success making it to the finals where anything can happen. But if we are playing for the Stanley Cup against Colorado and don't get swept...I'll consider the season a resounding success!!

 

[PK Cronin]

So you think they would have gotten enough value from trading one year of Gaudreau? Enough to equal their opportunity to win a Stanley cup? They are just lucky Huberdeau resigned because they didn't get the value back for Tkachuck either without Huberdeau extending. They caught lightning in a bottle once, doubt they could have done it back to back trading Gaudreau before the season started.

Gaudreau is traded before the season, so Calgary isn't as good as they were. That increases the likelihood of players like Tkachuck not wanting to stay there. Even the Huberdeau extension could be compromised if the team didn't have as much success the previous season, because why would he lock into a non-contending team?

In the Islanders case this year, Mayfield and Varlamov should've been traded in the summer since they don't have new deals in place. That lessens the team's chances of being successful unless they get adequate replacements in the trades. If the team is less successful it decreases the desirability for other players to want to come or stay. You can end up in a cycle of mediocrity by just dumping every UFA to be. Sometimes there's value beyond draft picks and prospects, some people don't realize that.

 

[Mike C]

Well it's going to be a failure. We aren't going to beat Colorado, lol. I'll consider it a success making it to the finals where anything can happen. But if we are playing for the Stanley Cup against Colorado and don't get swept...I'll consider the season a resounding success!!

i'll consider it a success making it to the playoffs.

 

[Drive 4 Five]

I think the recipe for the best chance of success this year is to open up the system a bit in the regular season. Let Barzal and the offense flow a little more and trust your defense and solid goalie tandem to make some saves. I think that gets you in the wild card/D3 hunt. If they get in, flip the switch and turn on the Trotz system. Pound the shit out of teams in a bunch of 2-1 playoff games. I agree with many that this team is built for playoffs and not the 82-game slog. Lambert just needs to pull the right strings to give them the best chance to get there.

 

[Skidrow11]

What do you mean isn't good on paper?

It was better on paper last season than the results on the ice.

I'd say it's the other way around. The players - particularly up front - are now being asked to live up to what they're capable of.

I didn't write it wasn't good. I wrote it wasnt very good. LOU has done everything and anything he can to keep the exact group of guys together, meanwhile...even islander fans, don't view this team as a division winner in the regular season. Stanly cup teams can go through 35 % turnover in 2 years meanwhile isles basically don't move anyone unless a expansion draft causes it. Again, nobody looks at the islanders as being good enough to win a division, so the teams not very good on paper. If it was very good on paper some would say they "might" win a division. Nobody is saying that. Its like the Toronto blue Jay's trying to keep their team together with as little change as possible meanwhile they don't even sniff the Yankees in the regular season

 

[Skidrow11]

And this is just where I differ with most people on these boards (and in the world).

I honestly don't care much about what people say - I care about what they do. Therefore I watch people's actions as opposed to listen to their words.

So to me when I'm watching Tavares not resign with the Isles as of July 1, 2017, and then days turn into weeks and then turn into months...To me he is telling the Isles that he's not going to resign.

The bottom line is that any owner/GM needs to put the team over the player. If they want to resign, great. But don't just say it - Actually do it and then there's no issue. If they don't actually do it, then you must assume they won't and protect the team by trading that player.

So I absolutely lump the Tavares situation in with the Seth Jones, Tkachuk, and Gaudreau situations. And twice the team got it right, and twice the team didn't.



But odds are he's wrong. Doesn't mean we shouldn't try of course, but he needs to be very careful.

And the scariest part is if Lou remains absolutely stubborn in that "win now" conviction so if this season starts going average or worse, because he won't keep an open mind he starts dumping assets like the 23/24 1st, Raty, Dufour, etc to chase a dream that's never going to happen.

I agree with you. In fact when Newsday said Tavares wouldn't sign and was going to play his last season out, I thought the isles would keep him out of camp till a trade was made. I thought the teammates wouldn't want a guy that was bailing on the program, it was a bad look to have a captain who wasn't all in, and I thought the fans would be booing JT from the get go that last year. I thought they would view him as kirk muller part 2. I was surprised most of the fans, even ones who know the business, just assumed he would sign in the offseason. It would of helped Jt out alot if snow or weight or the owner would of done an interview when he left, and told the media the reasons jt said he wasn't signing and wanted to play out his contract. Doug weight did mention it before his last year, but once he left if one of them had re said it, people would understand better that it wasn't a surprise he left. Even if the fans never wondered why he didn't sign you can be sure the owner asked jt and had talk about it.

 

[doublechili]

In the Islanders case this year, Mayfield and Varlamov should've been traded in the summer since they don't have new deals in place. That lessens the team's chances of being successful unless they get adequate replacements in the trades. If the team is less successful it decreases the desirability for other players to want to come or stay. You can end up in a cycle of mediocrity by just dumping every UFA to be. Sometimes there's value beyond draft picks and prospects, some people don't realize that.

Possibly my nominee for the board's annual Paragraph of the Year award.

If the Isles are clearly out of it at the deadline and know by that time that Mayfield isn't coming back then sure, deal him for picks. But that means that some contending team is willing to part with pick/s to acquire Mayfield as a rental. Therefore, if the Isles are contending they should keep him and consider the picks they could have gotten for him the cost of Mayfield as an "own rental".

 

[The Real JT]

And came up short both times.

I don’t take pleasure In the position I’m taking. Until this past February I was pretty bullish about our chances to get to a Finals. But I can’t look at this team and in good conscience think we’re going to pick up where we left off before COVID and everything in our Conference is the same as it was 2 years ago. I’m not convinced our weakness at defending against good skating teams has strengthened, and I see more teams becoming younger and faster. But Lou decided at the TDL to make no changes and doubled down on the team he assembled. I disagreed with it in February and I don’t see us having enough to even get back to where we were in 2021 when we got shut out in Tampa.

Many though not all the teams in our conference improved in the offseason. I wouldn’t include us in that group. We can also blame COVID and the opening road trip all we want but let’s be fair, we weren’t very good last year.

We are hoping for bounce back seasons from more than a few players while remaining injury free. Let’s not forget Brocktober isn’t scoring 37 goals again.

The Isles 2 playoff runs are consistently written off by other teams’ fans (you know who). While I’m not saying they’re right, it helps to weigh the opinions of outsiders even if they’re scum sucking bottom feeders with one Cup between them in 108 years.

I’m hoping for big steps forward in the development of Barzal and a few of our youngsters. I’ll root like hell but I’m not expecting this best case scenario.

 

[Taswell]

It'll all be fine, Michkov will get along great with Sorokin and Romanov! Just kidding...slightly.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

Pulock's % of his shots hitting the target (either goals or saves) is actually better than NHL average for defensemen. It's called "thru %" and you can find it on advanced stats sites. Although it's not really an "advanced" stat. All it measures is how many times you hit/miss the net.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

So to me when I'm watching Tavares not resign with the Isles as of July 1, 2017, and then days turn into weeks and then turn into months...To me he is telling the Isles that he's not going to resign.

The bottom line is that any owner/GM needs to put the team over the player. If they want to resign, great. But don't just say it - Actually do it and then there's no issue. If they don't actually do it, then you must assume they won't and protect the team by trading that player.

If you're signing the checks, you view it differently. The year that the pending UFA will play for you still has value. Just because he's entering a contract season, doesn't make the player disposable. In fact, that's typically when they are the most motivated and tend to have their best seasons.

Now if you're a rebuilding team, trading that pending UFA might make sense. But if you're a playoff team, it is awfully hard to stomach dumping one of your best players for picks/prospects (which is most likely the return) because they wouldn't re-sign a year early.

 

[The Real JT]

Pulock's % of his shots hitting the target (either goals or saves) is actually better than NHL average for defensemen. It's called "thru %" and you can find it on advanced stats sites. Although it's not really an "advanced" stat. All it measures is how many times you hit/miss the net.

There are lies, damn lies and statistics.
-attributed to both Mark Twain and Benjamin Disraeli

 

[periferal]

So you think they would have gotten enough value from trading one year of Gaudreau? Enough to equal their opportunity to win a Stanley cup? They are just lucky Huberdeau resigned because they didn't get the value back for Tkachuck either without Huberdeau extending. They caught lightning in a bottle once, doubt they could have done it back to back trading Gaudreau before the season started.

Literally the opposite question an NHL GM should ask. The real question is...

Does losing Gaudreau for nothing justify a very unlikely Cup run?

Specific to Calgary, let's remember that this is a franchise that had won exactly TWO (2) playoff series since 2004. Plus they had missed the playoffs entirely in 20-21. There was very little to suggest they would all of a sudden put it all together and get close to a Cup...And they didn't.

Also if you did your homework on Gaudreau there were lots of rumblings that he wanted to return back east where he was from. In fact had the Flyers been able to clear out enough cap room prior to this offseason I'd bet that's where he'd be now. The Flames brass ignored that fact the way snow did with Vanek/Minny.

In the end the Flames both misread Gaudreau's intention to resign and his value to get the team the Cup. They lost on both fronts and so if they traded Gaudreau before last season it would have been the smart more no matter what they got back in return (but it would've been significant).

In the Islanders case this year, Mayfield and Varlamov should've been traded in the summer since they don't have new deals in place. That lessens the team's chances of being successful unless they get adequate replacements in the trades. If the team is less successful it decreases the desirability for other players to want to come or stay. You can end up in a cycle of mediocrity by just dumping every UFA to be. Sometimes there's value beyond draft picks and prospects, some people don't realize that.

Ironically Lou literally refuses to dump any UFA to be...And as a result that could lead the Isles to a "cycle of mediocrity" if their vets get older/decline and there are no picks/prospects to replace them with.

 

[Mike C]

Many though not all the teams in our conference improved in the offseason. I wouldn’t include us in that group. We can also blame COVID and the opening road trip all we want but let’s be fair, we weren’t very good last year.

We are hoping for bounce back seasons from more than a few players while remaining injury free. Let’s not forget Brocktober isn’t scoring 37 goals again.

The Isles 2 playoff runs are consistently written off by other teams’ fans (you know who). While I’m not saying they’re right, it helps to weigh the opinions of outsiders even if they’re scum sucking bottom feeders with one Cup between them in 108 years.

I’m hoping for big steps forward in the development of Barzal and a few of our youngsters. I’ll root like hell but I’m not expecting this best case scenario.

Best synopsis that last paragraph!....sums up my feelings exactly!

I'm gonna get into regular season mode by DVRing the NHL network's 130AM airing of the game vs Devils, then do my best NOT to see, read or know the score until tomorrow night so I can watch it as if it's happening

I didn't tell my son when we watched the game last night that I accidentally saw the result when checking some baseball news