I'm not going to bother reading, but I can see why. Kuznetsov can be great, but he can also be awful. Ditto for Carlson. Oshie is slowing down. Mantha isn't what they thought they were getting. They are not good defensively, and Kuemper is going to see more, higher quality shots than he's seen since Arizona. Imo I know what to expect from Ovechkin, Wilson, and pretty much nobody else. Eller or Strome are going to have to drive their second line... Eek.
But really, the D is Carlson (a poor defensive player), Orlov (their best overall D imo), Jensen (meh), Trever VR, Gustafsson (?), Irwin (meh), and Fehervary (dunno much, but he had a very poor playoffs).
IMO the only thing that stops me from seeing them as a last place level team is Ovechkin. But that's, like, a big thing.