Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[IslandersFan17]

Why don’t we ever get UFAs?

Why would we ever pay so much for Kadri?!

Do we not see the dichotomy here…?

It’s one thing if we did it for players actually worth it and that would make the roster better.

 

[PK Cronin]

 

[impaaaaaact]

He is 32 years old forward with "intangibles" averaging 50-60 points per year (with an 87 points outlier playing for an offensive juggernaut in a contract year) – can we agree on that? If so, do you believe a player like that is worth over 7M? Even NOW, not to mention when he will be 37-39 years old?

I think there's a difference between "intangibles" and your team dominating possession whenever you're on the ice - and that hasn't just been for 1 year. I'll say it again, it's not about how many points you score, but how many points you score versus the other team. Kadri's lines have outscored other teams by about a 3-2 margin for the last 6 years. To me that is certainly worth 7M+

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

Listen, we all know you have access to a calculator and you're not afraid to use it - the thing you're forgetting about winning hockey games is that no matter how many goals you score, it still has to be more than the other team for it to matter. Nelson's Expected Goals PCT% over that time is 52%ish. We can switch it to the Barry Trotz Era if you think I'm cherry picking here. That's when Brock has played his best hockey, right? +16, (+4 a year on average) and a 53%ish Expected Goals Percentage. A little better than the other guys!

So as for Kadri, what do these numbers look like? 60.6% EGP over that time period - that's with two teams. The reason for that? Kadri's Corsi numbers are through the roof - also about 60%. For those in the back still adding and dividing goals on a calculator that means that Kadri's line is getting shots on net at a 3/2 clip over the last 6 seasons. That's 3 seasons with TOR and 3 seasons with COL. Other team can't score if they don't have the puck! Nelson's Corsi coming in just below 50% for those wondering (and just over in the Trotz era).

But surely these numbers based off of 6 years of data on 2 different teams are due to the privilege of playing on Toronto and Colorado right? Wrong. Over that time, Kadri has outpaced his team in Relative Expected Goals % (which measures his on ice expected goals - when he's off the ice) by about 10% during that time. That's measuring his effectiveness against when Mackinnon or Auston Matthews or Cale Makar or Mitch Marner or John Tavares or whoever else on the team was on the ice. Brock tends to add about 2% per year.

So why bring all this up? Because, and I'll take a page out of your book here, YOU WIN HOCKEY GAMES BY OUTSCORING THE OTHER TEAM. Not by counting goals in a vacuum. Not by meausuring a player's shooting %. You win by outscoring the other team. Kadri is at least twice as good at outscoring the other team than Brock Nelson.

No. Kadri is not "twice as good at outscoring the other team" than Brock Nelson.....yes, the teams he were on were more offensively efficient and overall better, but Kadri himself was not- nor has he ever been- twice as good as Brock Nelson....period. To even use a singular player in a "outscoring the other team" declarative is insane to begin with.

Overall, Kadri is a better player than Nelson, that isn't really debatable. His intangibles- across the board- are better than Brock's- but that is not what you argued. You made the clear statement that Brock would have to sustain a 22% shooting percentage to be HALF the scorer that Nazem is and that is just a flat out lie. Brock has been a better shooter and scorer and adding your outside metrics doesn't change that (Corsi, EG%, etc), rather that only further illustrates that even with those advantages (and yes, it has everything to do with the system and forwards he was playing with) he hasn't scored as many goals per82 as Brock or even Lee.

Bottom line is Kadri is a 50-60 pt player, something EVERYONE would admit is likely what he will be here until his obviously going to happen (simply because he isn't a real good shooter and his style of play will lessen his athleticism) decline in the later years of a 7 year contract.

Quit trying to make him out as more than that. NO ONE was giving him 7 years this offseason and NO ONE was paying him 9 million for the lone season he put up a per82 pace of 100 points when his CAREER per82 before than was 52 damn points per82....

except maybe clueless Lou...

 

[WangMustGo]

I think there's a difference between "intangibles" and your team dominating possession whenever you're on the ice. I'll say it again, it's not about how many points you score, but how many points you score versus the other team. Kadri's lines have outscored other teams by about a 3-2 margin for the last 6 years. To me that is certainly worth 7M+
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While i dont love a 7 year contract (if that is what it ends up being), but 7 million a year is fair value for the next few years.

Kadri is a very good player, and would slot in there around Nelson as our 2nd most talented forward. He is also good defensively, physical, and will stick up for teammates.

Hypothetically if he is signed, you go into the season with a deep forward group, with a great defense, and top notch goaltending. Get to the trade deadline and make a deal for Kane/Miller and this team is capable of winning the cup.

 

[impaaaaaact]

No. Kadri is not "twice as good at outscoring the other team" than Brock Nelson.....yes, the teams he were on were more offensively efficient and overall better, but Kadri himself was not- nor has he ever been- twice as good as Brock Nelson....period. To even use a singular player in a "outscoring the other team" declarative is insane to begin with.

Overall, Kadri is a better player than Nelson, that isn't really debatable. His intangibles- across the board- are better than Brock's- but that is not what you argued. You made the clear statement that Brock would have to sustain a 22% shooting percentage to be HALF the scorer that Nazem is and that is just a flat out lie. Brock has been a better shooter and scorer and adding your outside metrics doesn't change that (Corsi, EG%, etc), rather that only further illustrates that even with those advantages (and yes, it has everything to do with the system and forwards he was playing with) he hasn't scored as many goals per82 as Brock or even Lee.

Bottom line is Kadri is a 50-60 pt player, something EVERYONE would admit is likely what he will be here until his obviously going to happen (simply because he isn't a real good shooter and his style of play will lessen his athleticism) decline in the later years of a 7 year contract.

Quit trying to make him out as more than that. NO ONE was giving him 7 years this offseason and NO ONE was paying him 9 million for the lone season he put up a per82 pace of 100 points when his CAREER per82 before than was 52 damn points per82....

except maybe clueless Lou...

I think this is just one of those times where the reading comprehension is never going to be there so I'm bowing out. when all is said and done, I hope you'll be able to enjoy having Kadri on the team

 

[PK Cronin]

Hold me.

The team has 3 RFAs and still needs to sign someone. This could be a giant nothing burger.

 

[Throttle]

I wonder if by "transactions" he would include signing RFAs, or if he means signing UFAs, trades, waivers, etc.? I'm thinking it's the latter.

Probably a hybrid.

(maybe a long term Barzal extension - good lord)

 

[leeroggy]

Hold me.

I've heard that if LL doesn't comply with disclosure the FBI will invade his office with 36 agents, will open his safe, and find Jimmy Hoffa

Then they will find missing documents that the NHL Archives are searching for, and that will be the trades of Bailey and Beau, which actually were filed with the NHL, but LL paid Tony D'Angelo to steal them back.

All of D'Angelo's emails were destroyed to hide the evidence.

Kadri will be signed for league minimum for seven years because his agent misread the contract and all the anti-Kadri posters here will instead complain that it is the LENGTH they are upset with.

The NHL will appoint Robert Mueller to investigate the mess, but he will be replaced when it's discovered he is already in a nursing home.

 

[IslandersFan17]

All kidding aside I’d put money on three of the four “transactions” are the three RFAs

 

[Big L]

All kidding aside I’d put money on three of the four “transactions” are the three RFAs

And the forth one is Bailey to the Leafs.

 

[MJF]

I wonder if by "transactions" he would include signing RFAs, or if he means signing UFAs, trades, waivers, etc.? I'm thinking it's the latter.

I think it’s all of the above. It will be a Lou data dump.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

The going rate for Pageau who's a high end 3C was 5M per, Kadri was the 2C on a Cup team and is coming off a 100+ point season. He should fire hire agent if he gets an AAV less than high 6's.

Doesn't mean I agree with Lamoriello being the one to give it to him, that's just the price for someone like this.

why does everyone keep leaving years out of it????

Hell, no one on here is arguing the 7 million per......but NOT FOR SEVEN YEARS.

And it is COMMON SENSE that if we are giving him those years, then his AAV should DROP especially since few if any contending teams have the cap space now and it being this late into the offseason....

If we are all ok with him getting 5 years and 7 million (total of 35) then is it reasonable to suggest that 7 years and 6 million (total of 42) would be on par with that??

An agent getting fired for getting him 7 million more dollars????

 

[IslandersFan17]

And the forth one is Bailey to the Leafs.

They have negative cap space, but sure lol

 

[MJF]

Why don’t we ever get UFAs?

Why would we ever pay so much for Kadri?!

Do we not see the dichotomy here…?

Why don’t we just sign 24 year old rising stars???

Never mind the fact that they’re mostly all RFAs. Get it done Lou!

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

I think there's a difference between "intangibles" and your team dominating possession whenever you're on the ice - and that hasn't just been for 1 year. I'll say it again, it's not about how many points you score, but how many points you score versus the other team. Kadri's lines have outscored other teams by about a 3-2 margin for the last 6 years. To me that is certainly worth 7M+View attachment 576170

View attachment 576167

He is not matching that production or success rate in our system and you know it....

 

[Big L]

why does everyone keep leaving years out of it????

Hell, no one on here is arguing the 7 million per......but NOT FOR SEVEN YEARS.

And it is COMMON SENSE that if we are giving him those years, then his AAV should DROP especially since few if any contending teams have the cap space now and it being this late into the offseason....

If we are all ok with him getting 5 years and 7 million (total of 35) then is it reasonable to suggest that 7 years and 6 million (total of 42) would be on par with that??

An agent getting fired for getting him 7 million more dollars????

If he wants $9m a year, then 7x7 is about the same as 5 at $9m per.

Would you sign kadri to 5 yr at $9m AAV?

 

[JKP]

It’s one thing if we did it for players actually worth it and that would make the roster better.

And you kinda prove my point. My most measures, he's worth $7M and will make the roster better. If he's 2C and Nelson becomes a W in lieu of a Bailey, that makes the roster better for $2M more. I understand term, but who cares, deal with the underperforming 3 years after the good 4 years. If they get him for $7M AAV, I think he's worth that for the first 3-4 years and makes the team better.

 

[impaaaaaact]

He is not matching that production or success rate in our system and you know it....

No one knows what his success rates will be like in our system, but it's encouraging that he's been effective in two different ones right? Add to that that we have a new coach and no one knows what our system is. All we ever get from you is conjecture presented as fact.

 

[MJF]

He is not matching that production or success rate in our system and you know it....

I know I’m going to regret this but….

What system? We have a new coach and we don’t know his game plan yet.

If he wants $9m a year, then 7x7 is about the same as 5 at $9m per.

Would you sign kadri to 5 yr at $9m AAV?

Yes. The cash isn’t my issue, it’s the term.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

I think this is just one of those times where the reading comprehension is never going to be there so I'm bowing out. when all is said and done, I hope you'll be able to enjoy having Kadri on the team

A good idea, because you are failing at every turn. Using other statistics doesn't change your underlined declaration and what we were debating...

Kadri is not a better goal scorer than Brock Nelson or Anders Lee.....period...and you shouldn't have claimed he was (with Brock) when stats clearly show he hasn't been (even with more time on the ice)...

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

No one knows what his success rates will be like in our system, but it's encouraging that he's been effective in two different ones right? Add to that that we have a new coach and no one knows what our system is. All we ever get from you is conjecture presented as fact.

Two offensive first systems.....

and lets not kid ourselves with the word "successful"

His Per 82:

as a Maple Leaf (10 years): 24-29-53
as an Avalanche (2 years prior to last season): 23-28-51

So, he was "successful" one season out of 13

(assuming you mean successful as a 70-pt player who warrants 7 million a year, because 2021-22 was the ONLY year he has done that)

So ya, I will take the 12/13 (92%) odds and you can ride with the 8% lol

If he wants $9m a year, then 7x7 is about the same as 5 at $9m per.

Would you sign kadri to 5 yr at $9m AAV?

no I wouldn't....

 

[impaaaaaact]

A good idea, because you are failing at every turn. Using other statistics doesn't change your underlined declaration and what we were debating...

Kadri is not a better goal scorer than Brock Nelson or Anders Lee.....period...and you shouldn't have claimed he was (with Brock) when stats clearly show he hasn't been (even with more time on the ice)...

I never said Kadri was a better goal scorer than Nelson. Once again it is clear that your reading comprehension is not your strong suit - I even put it in bold and italicized it for you! Let me know if you want to give that one another go.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

I never said Kadri was a better goal scorer than Nelson. Once again it is clear that your reading comprehension is not your strong suit - I even put it in bold and italicized it for you! Let me know if you want to give that one another go.

You implied as much sure.

It is why you used Nelson's 22% shooting "maintaining" insane comment and used the 6 year comparison between the two (so you can get Kadri's back to back and ONLY 30+ goal seasons) instead of a more recent 3 or 4 year model where Nelson's production beats Kadri, even with his career season.

Sure, you came back from that with bolded irrelevant Corsi and other numbers, that didn't at all correspond with your implied comment before.

I mean why say anything about Brock's shooting percentage last year if that wasn't what you were implying???

No, nothing wrong with my reading comprehension, I just don't play stupid...

 

[IslandersFan17]

And you kinda prove my point. My most measures, he's worth $7M and will make the roster better. If he's 2C and Nelson becomes a W in lieu of a Bailey, that makes the roster better for $2M more. I understand term, but who cares, deal with the underperforming 3 years after the good 4 years. If they get him for $7M AAV, I think he's worth that for the first 3-4 years and makes the team better.

Moving a guy who just had one of his best seasons to wing makes the roster better?

Lou had swung and missed on top end Wingers, so bring in a mid level center and uproot one of our other centers for the price of 7x7.