Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[impaaaaaact]

I would love to know how he is better than Brock Nelson who had 37 goals this year, more than Kadri has ever scored in his life, but yet somehow it is not even close.

In all honesty, who would you rather have a 30 year old Brock Nelson at 6 million, or a 32 year old Kadri at 7 million. To me THAT is not even close. I choose Nelson without even a second thought.

If Brock Nelson can sustain his 22% shooting percentage for the rest of his career then he has a chance to continue being half as effective as Kadri has been for the past 6 seasons.

 

[BelovedIsles]

Oiy, the amount of griping over this Kadri saga.

He upgrades the forward talent pool, a desperate need. This is not an Andrew Ladd situation. Kadri is a better player; I'm okay with 7 per, we'll see what (if) the term may be. He would be the second best forward on this team, as currently constructed. The team's window is two years, he fits right in.

 

[LeapOnOver]

You responded to me first, not the other way around and yes, in our back and forth you conveniently left off the years...

And no, I won't be right....Lou ALWAYS overpays in every move he makes and this one won't be any different...

7x6 for the reasons I have mentioned is likely getting him inked, especially at this stage in the offseason. That does not mean Lou hasn't already offered him 7x7 which wasn't necessary at all...

You must feel at least a little bit stupid and guilty for putting 'always' in caps.

Adam Pelech commits to the Islanders, signs new eight-year deal

Pelech Posse, rejoice! The Isles’ top defenseman will be in blue and orange through the 2028-29 season.

www.lighthousehockey.com

 

[LeapOnOver]

Oiy, the amount of griping over this Kadri saga.

He upgrades the forward talent pool, a desperate need. This is not an Andrew Ladd situation. Kadri is a better player; I'm okay with 7 per, we'll see what (if) the term may be. He would be the second best forward on this team, as currently constructed. The team's window is two years, he fits right in.

Not to mention, how do these gripers actually think the roster will be upgraded? Just don't sign anybody and let it waste away. We missed out on moves that I thought were better than Kadri, like Pacioretty (NMC and injured now!) or Debrincat. But, nothing really left to upgrade the roster with, so this is it.

 

[IslandersFan17]

Oiy, the amount of griping over this Kadri saga.

He upgrades the forward talent pool, a desperate need. This is not an Andrew Ladd situation. Kadri is a better player; I'm okay with 7 per, we'll see what (if) the term may be. He would be the second best forward on this team, as currently constructed. The team's window is two years, he fits right in.

He doesn’t fit right in as we are pretty strong at center.

And while he is better than Ladd was when he was signed, it’s not by much. And just because he would be one of the better forwards on the team (not an overly high bar) doesn’t mean you over pay and hurt your self down the line.

Kadri isn’t making the islanders contenders, not now and certainly not in the ladder stages of his contract, when we will inevitably trying to move his cap hit off the books.

 

[IslesNorway]

The issue isn't really as much with Kadri as it is with the expected contract. Never sign 30+ players to more than a few years! If Kadri is signed to a 7 year deal, at least four of those years are years we will come to regret.

 

[saintunspecified]

I asked this a while ago and got crickets. He’s instantly the second best offensive player on the team and it’s not close

If you eliminate kadri's best seasons, and eliminate Bailey's worst seasons, they're basically equivalent.

The issue isn't really as much with Kadri as it is with the expected contract. Never sign 30+ players to more than a few years! If Kadri is signed to a 7 year deal, at least four of those years are years we will come to regret.

No doubt. But the worry is that if we don't pay the price, we will regret it right away.

 

[The Real JT]

The issue isn't really as much with Kadri as it is with the expected contract. Never sign 30+ players to more than a few years! If Kadri is signed to a 7 year deal, at least four of those years are years we will come to regret.

Assuming Kadri is signed let’s compare his career stats to those of Andrew Ladd prior to both of them signing with the Isles.

Kadri is slightly older btw. By all accounts, he will sign for $2-2.5M/year more than Ladd and for 2 more years of term. Including Kadri’s outsized production last year, their prior PPG for the past 6 years is comparable with a slight edge to Ladd.

The Isles will be better with Kadri for one year, maybe 2. After that we’re left the possibility or more likely the probability that his contract will be an anchor for the franchise.

His contract can’t be looked at in a vacuum. When one door opens, another door closes. Future opportunities go by the wayside when the ink is dry on his deal.

 

[Seph]

Then I am wrong if that is true, I was going off some sites from the playoffs what the lines were seems like it was mixed in the playoffs unless those sites were wrong and read that he played with Rantanen somewhere. I am also sure he got powerplay time too. I agree that he won't be as good here. He is a second line center at best which is still great for this team as a piece but we do still need more higher end pieces.

Who he played with on the powerplay or in the playoffs doesn't have an effect on his 5v5 regular season numbers, which as I pointed out earlier were only two fewer totals points than MacKinnon. And I think we all agree MacK is an elite first liner and did have the benefit of the wingers you mention. Putting up elite first line 5v5 numbers with Nuke and Burakovsky as your wingers certainly would indicate that your "at best" is higher than a 2nd liner, I would think. But maybe that's just me.

 

[saintunspecified]

His contract can’t be looked at in a vacuum. When one door opens, another door closes. Future opportunities go by the wayside when the ink is dry on his deal.

What opportunities? Next year there will be a UFA class that includes Toews (36) Kane (35), Tarasenko (32), Pacioretty (35). It may also include Pastrnak, and Larkin. Opportunities may include signing one of the first group to a 6-7 year deal, which doesn't seem better and is probably worse. Or you could have a Larkin/Pastrnak pipe dream in mind.

The Pacioretty injury, oddly, made me feel a bit better about NYI's inaction this postseason. And the Gaudreau experience (after the Panarin experience) tells me we need to discount the pipe dreams.

I'm much less concerned with NYI's salary cap situation going forward than the futures/asset cost that may be required to make room for Kadri. 1st/2nd round picks are the missed opportunities we will regret going forward, I think. NYI will have buyout opportunities, but only if they have the young in-control players to slide into open slots.

 

[Satan'sIsland81]

If Brock Nelson can sustain his 22% shooting percentage for the rest of his career then he has a chance to continue being half as effective as Kadri has been for the past 6 seasons.

Ummmmm you might want to do a better job of research before making ridiculous statements like this. I am pretty sure Brock did not have a 22 shooting percentage for the last 5 seasons, yet over that time he has 125 goals, Kadri has 106 goals. If you even want to factor in points, then Nelson has 235 points, Kadri has 254 points. In what world is that "half as effective" as Kadri? Nelson is clearly the better goal scorer and Kadri has maybe a slight edge in overall offense. We do not need another playmaker we need a 35-40 goal scorer like a Tarasenko. And I would bet Nelson has at least 4 top level seasons left in him, while Kadri has maybe 2. With all that Nelson, as a homegrown Isles player, has achieved in the last decade, including one huge playoff goal after another, for you to shove him aside for the likes of Kadri, is just really odd. Is Kadri like your favorite player in the league or something?

The issue isn't really as much with Kadri as it is with the expected contract. Never sign 30+ players to more than a few years! If Kadri is signed to a 7 year deal, at least four of those years are years we will come to regret.

Exactly, we are basically competing with ourselves. It was like a few years back when Lou had to give Komarov a 4 year deal, when nobody else in the NHL was probably even offering 2. Tell Kadri we will give you 5 years at 6 million or 3 years at 7 million, if he doesnt accept say goodbye and move on, he is not worth it.

 

[MJF]

Oiy, the amount of griping over this Kadri saga.

He upgrades the forward talent pool, a desperate need. This is not an Andrew Ladd situation. Kadri is a better player; I'm okay with 7 per, we'll see what (if) the term may be. He would be the second best forward on this team, as currently constructed. The team's window is two years, he fits right in.

Agreed with everything you said about Kadri and how he fits into the plan of a team that is still in win now mode.

I think that, unfortunately, Lou stuck with going for it with this core. A core that plays a style that many teams in the league have gone away from. I still don’t think we can defend well against the speedier teams in the NHL even with Kadri, and a 7 year contract for him is 3 years too many.

 

[crasherino]

Agreed with everything you said about Kadri and how he fits into the plan of a team that is still in win now mode.

I think that, unfortunately, Lou stuck with going for it with this core. A core that plays a style that many teams in the league have gone away from. I still don’t think we can defend well against the speedier teams in the NHL even with Kadri, and a 7 year contract for him is 3 years too many.

....and those are our choices right now. Sign a guy who will significantly improve our team in the near term to 3 years too many, or go with what we have, a forward group that - on its best day - has a chance of being wildcard competitive.

No real good options unless we make a trade which would likely involve giving up one (or more) of our precious few young assets/draft picks. Not ideal either.

Hopefully that 7/$7m number is floated by Kadri's agent. I'll happily take 5/$7m per (not ideal but more manageable) but I'm guessing other teams will be offering that as well.

 

[Mike C]

....and those are our choices right now. Sign a guy who will significantly improve our team in the near term to 3 years too many, or go with what we have, a forward group that - on its best day - has a chance of being wildcard competitive.

No real good options unless we make a trade which would likely involve giving up one (or more) of our precious few young assets/draft picks. Not ideal either.

Hopefully that 7/$7m number is floated by Kadri's agent. I'll happily take 5/$7m per (not ideal but more manageable) but I'm guessing other teams will be offering that as well.

Key phrase "on it's best day"

 

[Fantom]

The issue isn't really as much with Kadri as it is with the expected contract. Never sign 30+ players to more than a few years! If Kadri is signed to a 7 year deal, at least four of those years are years we will come to regret.

i agree with most of your post.
7 years is a LONG term for a 32-year-old. Who really only had one really good season of 80 plus points.
Most likely the contract will be a burden after the 3rd year at 7M if its that high.
a fair deal would be along these lines
7 Year with a annual AAV of 4.75 to maybe 5.5
If he wants more money you go down in the years IMHO
4 Years Maybe 6M per.
otherwise i think he is not worth it

 

[seafoam]

Agreed with everything you said about Kadri and how he fits into the plan of a team that is still in win now mode.

I think that, unfortunately, Lou stuck with going for it with this core. A core that plays a style that many teams in the league have gone away from. I still don’t think we can defend well against the speedier teams in the NHL even with Kadri, and a 7 year contract for him is 3 years too many.

I generally agree but we have yet to see the impact of a Lane Lambert coached team.

For all we know, he could end up being a coach who preaches and prioritizes speed and pace out of his lineup and demands his defensemen to be more active offensively than Trotz did.

 

[MJF]

I generally agree but we have yet to see the impact of a Lane Lambert coached team.

For all we know, he could end up being a coach who preaches and prioritizes speed and pace out of his lineup and demands his defensemen to be more active offensively than Trotz did.

Unless Lambert had guys like Beauvillier, Bailey, Pulock, doing 6 hours a day firing at a shooter tutor, I don’t see how he can turn career non-finisher into finishers.

 

[FourRings]

7x7 is too much for too long. This isn’t smart.

 

[Fantom]

7x7 is too much for too long. This isn’t smart.

i think most of us agree on that. he is to old and not wirth 7

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

The one fact that you offered was based on the numbers from his entire career… not super pertinent or actionable. Everything else your opinion is based on is your own conjecture. We’re doing the same thing here which is speculating based on the information we have at our disposal.

But my original point stands, if the number was ever 5.75, the signing would have been announced ages ago. You basically proved this yourself by fitting him on to our team without really moving anyone off the roster… which in and of itself should have shown how unrealistic that was.

And yet another response without mentioning years. No, unless that Colorado contract was for SEVEN YEARS then he wasn't taking 5.75 million. You keep simplifying the AAV without talking about the length to make your argument.

I ask you, have you read the reports as recent as this week where he was wanting 9 million per? None of those reports suggest he wants 9 million and 7 years, just 9 million per. It is safe to assume that the more years you add the less that 9 million would be yes? It is also safe to assume that 9 figure goes down the later we are in the offseason, yes?

As for facts I used, it was not limited to only his career numbers before last season. There have been no teams connected with Kadri in the last 3 weeks except us, Colorado has not cleared up space to sign him, few if any other contending teams have cap space, etc, etc....these are all facts as well.

As we stand now, I see absolutely no reason for us to give him the full seven years and $7 million per because it would seem we would be bidding against ourselves, not to mention I just don't think ANYONE was giving him that length, not when he turns 32 to begin the season.

7 years at 6 million, not a penny more IMHO

 

[saintunspecified]

Hopefully that 7/$7m number is floated by Kadri's agent. I'll happily take 5/$7m per (not ideal but more manageable) but I'm guessing other teams will be offering that as well.

I think we can be certain about is that Kadri has gotten deepest in negotiations with NYI. I believe that Seravelli has good reason to believe that NYI offered 7/7 that at some point in time, but offers are not necessarily open-ended. For example, NYI could have an offer on a deal to shed salary, which is no longer available to them. The other thing we can be certain out is there is a lot of BS floating around out there, and also that most of the better hockey journalists are probably doing their best to stay out of cell range in their cottages.

 

[Fantom]

And yet another response without mentioning years. No, unless that Colorado contract was for SEVEN YEARS then he wasn't taking 5.75 million. You keep simplifying the AAV without talking about the length to make your argument.

I ask you, have you read the reports as recent as this week where he was wanting 9 million per? None of those reports suggest he wants 9 million and 7 years, just 9 million per. It is safe to assume that the more years you add the less that 9 million would be yes? It is also safe to assume that 9 figure goes down the later we are in the offseason, yes?

As for facts I used, it was not limited to only his career numbers before last season. There have been no teams connected with Kadri in the last 3 weeks except us, Colorado has not cleared up space to sign him, few if any other contending teams have cap space, etc, etc....these are all facts as well.

As we stand now, I see absolutely no reason for us to give him the full seven years and $7 million per because it would seem we would be bidding against ourselves, not to mention I just don't think ANYONE was giving him that length, not when he turns 32 to begin the season.

7 years at 6 million, not a penny more IMHO

STILL TO MUCH CASH

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

If Brock Nelson can sustain his 22% shooting percentage for the rest of his career then he has a chance to continue being half as effective as Kadri has been for the past 6 seasons.

Haha. Love what you did there. You went "last six seasons" to make sure you included those (2) 32 goal seasons (the only ones of his career) and to make the comparison in scoring favor Kadri.

Truth is, even with both of their "career seasons", Brock has been the better goal scorer between the two.

Nelson has 205 goals in 676 career games (24.87 per 82) while Kadri comes up short with 219 goals in 739 games (24.3).

And it isn't necessarily the half goal difference that tells the real story either as Nazem has gotten almost a full minute more of ice time for his career and played with 2 of the more offensive gifted teams in the NHL while Brock has played over half of his in a defensive-first runned scheme on the Island.

And no, Brock would not have to sustain his 22% shooting percentage either. In the three MOST RECENT seasons before both of their career years of 2021-22, this is where they compare:

Nelson: 69 goals in 206 games (27.5 per82)
Kadri: 46 goals in 180 games (21.0 per 82)

Truth is, Brock is just the better shooter to boot (was a 14-15% shooter even BEFORE his career season last year, compared to Kadri's career mark of 11.2%).

Even the five (totally smashing your argument that Nelson would need to "sustain his 22% shooting percentage for the rest of his career then he has a chance to continue being half as effective as Kadri has been for the past 6 seasons" declaration) prior seasons doesn't hold much water...

Nelson: 108 goals in 369 games (24 per 82)
Kadri: 110 goals in 342 games (26.3 per 82)

24 is half of 26??? Huh?

And as I have already pointed out, Nelson has been better more recently...
And guess what??, Anders Lee is a better per82 scorer than both of them, no matter which multi-year standard you use.

No, truth is Kadri would just be another overpaid (especially if we sign him to 7/49) 50-60 point producer on our team, who ISN'T the scorer that either Lee or Nelson are.....

Even worse is no one on our team has a contract paying them past the age of 35 and if we end up giving Kadri seven years, his contract will pay him through his AGE 38 season....

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

STILL TO MUCH CASH

Yes I agree.

But I would probably swallow it because of the intangibles he would bring as well as the prospect of having Nelson on Barzal's line....

 

[Chardo]

It would take a lot of 7&7 to justify 7x7.