Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

He's scored 22 goals in his last 128 games. With only 164 shots on net over that same period.

That isn't good. Assists are nice, but IMO goals and shots are what teams really want.

Another thing many fail to realize is that the guy is getting older and likely to decline. Some would say he's already in-decline.

Now, we both agree that the chances of us getting anything of value back in a Bailey trade are thin. I just think that for the reasons above, we should be happily surprised if he's dealt without having to add something else.

He has NEVER been a goal scorer. That 22 goals in 128 games (14.09 per 82) is basically WHAT HE HAS ALWAYS BEEN (14.56 in his CAREER before that).

No, points is where it is at in evaluating, because teams do in fact want facilitators. Kevin Fiala just got 8 million per for scoring 30 goals ONCE in his career. They paid for his 103 assists in his last 196 games (43 per82) as much as they paid for his lone 30 goal season. Fiala joined Jonathan Huberdeau (115 points), Artemi Panarin (96), Patrick Kane (92) and Nazem Kadri (87) among the top 20 forwards in scoring this season- and yet, he was the only one among them who netted 30 goals. 336 of their combined 475 points came from assists (71%)

Of course assists matter.

Sure, it could be difficult to move him, but I think because of the cash owed (7 million) and how he is still a 50 per 82 guy (last season was 49, and no real signs of decline) it will be easier that one might think.

But much like one should not expect anything of real value in return for him- the same can be said as far as your "sweetner".

 

[doublechili]

Varly isn't getting traded in the off-season.

Teams like Buffalo and the Sens would benefit from having Bailey on their team. I am not sure he goes before Beau however.

Plenty of middle six, bottom six guys available in free agency. Not many second pairing LD. Zadarov and Chariot, two guys that not many on this board wanted last year. That leaves Leddy, Cole and Ruuta, who can play the left side as options. Plenty of competition for all five likely.

Should be interesting.

I'm not sure I see Zadarov as a 2d pairing D. He was under 17 minutes ice time per game last year. Leddy and Chiarot both were over 21 minutes per game.

 

[crashthenet]

I'm not sure I see Zadarov as a 2d pairing D. He was under 17 minutes ice time per game last year. Leddy and Chiarot both were over 21 minutes per game.

I don't see much else out there. It's odd but might be more RD options via trade or UFA.

 

[Sheva7]

He has NEVER been a goal scorer. That 22 goals in 128 games (14.09 per 82) is basically WHAT HE HAS ALWAYS BEEN (14.56 in his CAREER before that).

No, points is where it is at in evaluating, because teams do in fact want facilitators. Kevin Fiala just got 8 million per for scoring 30 goals ONCE in his career. They paid for his 103 assists in his last 196 games (43 per82) as much as they paid for his lone 30 goal season. Fiala joined Jonathan Huberdeau (115 points), Artemi Panarin (96), Patrick Kane (92) and Nazem Kadri (87) among the top 20 forwards in scoring this season- and yet, he was the only one among them who netted 30 goals. 336 of their combined 475 points came from assists (71%)

Of course assists matter.

Sure, it could be difficult to move him, but I think because of the cash owed (7 million) and how he is still a 50 per 82 guy (last season was 49, and no real signs of decline) it will be easier that one might think.

But much like one should not expect anything of real value in return for him- the same can be said as far as your "sweetner".

Who is saying he hasn't always been a 15 goal scorer? And who is saying assists don't matter?? Dude, who are you talking to? lol

You're using players like Kane, Fiala and Huberdeau to help prove your point lol. IMO all you're doing is making it more clear that a 30+ yr old, 15 goal, 40-50pt wingers with a high cap hits are more of a liability than they are an asset.

Anyway....

I will be shocked if we don't have to add anything. You'll be shocked if we do have to add. Let's just leave it there and see what happens. And I actually I hope you're right!!

 

[danteipp]

It certainly seems like a high probability of self created content. If you write it, they will come…

Jerry, just remember, it's not a lie... if you believe it...

 

[LBloor]

No it's not. If you read the reports you can sense the lacklustre descriptions all the agencies have of these players. None are talked of being anything more than serviceable NHLers in the future. There are no stars, no top line forwards or top pairing defencemen available at the top of this draft. I think the Devils will have a hard time moving that #2 overall too. Of course, there could be a superstar or two coming out of this draft, but they may well be taken at 13, 22, 30 or 42 as at the top.

Move Nelson for a player whose career may not even be on par with Nelson's? Think not.

If any moves are to be made at this draft, it's getting rid of players like Varlmaov, Bailey, Beau, Martin etc.

Wouldn't mind seeing them take Logan Morrison from Hamilton if he is still there in the third round.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

Who is saying he hasn't always been a 15 goal scorer? And who is saying assists don't matter?? Dude, who are you talking to? lol

You're using players like Kane, Fiala and Huberdeau to help prove your point lol. IMO all you're doing is making it more clear that a 30+ yr old, 15 goal, 40-50pt wingers with a high cap hits are more of a liability than they are an asset.

Anyway....

I will be shocked if we don't have to add anything. You'll be shocked if we do have to add. Let's just leave it there and see what happens. And I actually I hope you're right!!

You are the one who used his goals in the last 126 games as some defining declaration of him...don't know why you use it when it isn't any different than he has always been (hence me pointing that out).
Kane and Kadri were used as well and they are both over 30 (Kane older), so no I didnt use just young players....

You were the one under-evaluating assists which puzzled me, so that is why I countered the argument.

No, if you took some time and evaluated the FA market, you would see Bailey and his 2-years 10 million (and only 7 million owed) actually has good value.

Once you admit that one or both of the marquee FA's (Forsberg/Gaudreau) will join Fiala and not even be one (and sign their 8-year team offers), you would be hard pressed to list 20 forwards who offer more value at that price for a 50 point scorer (leaving offer sheet RFA's out of the equation since that costs draft picks)

Hell, once you realize how some teams will overpay (Kadri), how some free-agents aren't going anywhere (Bergeron, Malkin almost definitely and likely Nichushkin and EKane) then I doubt you can list 10....

If you do that kind of homework you might realize the value Bailey should/does have.....

 

[lafellaesobar]

i think Mikheyev is a name to keep an eye for

 

[gordie43]

Just my opinion but how covid affect player development and scouts being unable to see these guys, I see this draft and next year as a crap shoot. To me all the more reason to hang onto the pick.

 

[Sheva7]

You are the one who used his goals in the last 126 games as some defining declaration of him...don't know why you use it when it isn't any different than he has always been (hence me pointing that out).
Kane and Kadri were used as well and they are both over 30 (Kane older), so no I didnt use just young players....

You were the one under-evaluating assists which puzzled me, so that is why I countered the argument.

No, if you took some time and evaluated the FA market, you would see Bailey and his 2-years 10 million (and only 7 million owed) actually has good value.

Once you admit that one or both of the marquee FA's (Forsberg/Gaudreau) will join Fiala and not even be one (and sign their 8-year team offers), you would be hard pressed to list 20 forwards who offer more value at that price for a 50 point scorer (leaving offer sheet RFA's out of the equation since that costs draft picks)

Hell, once you realize how some teams will overpay (Kadri), how some free-agents aren't going anywhere (Bergeron, Malkin almost definitely and likely Nichushkin and EKane) then I doubt you can list 10....

If you do that kind of homework you might realize the value Bailey should/does have.....

Ya we'll be so hard-pressed, Bailey is such a bargain...that's why you and every other Isles fan wants to trade him.

So far the most compelling positive point raised about Bailey that may entice other GM's is his ability to raise his game in the playoffs. The guy has been good for us in the post-season. But other than that, I don't see much for GM's to like overall.
- over 30
- doesn't shoot
- doesn't score
- doesn't drive play
- not great defensively
- high cap hit for 2 more years

 

[SI90]

I’m not familiar with him but it’s a new guy in the organization so

 

[Top Corner]

There's not a superstar in the draft. But then since when is Brock Nelson a superstar? He's our best player but he's no superstar. And I've had it banged into me over the past week that Nelson, coming off his best season with an unsustainable shooting percentage, would be hard pressed to do it again this season. A player like that I'd be inclined to sell high on.

So I don't get a sense that the top 5 players ranked in the draft are lackluster. What they seem to be is serviceable with the top 2 presenting qualities that not too many on our roster have in abundance.

Again, because I suggest trading Nelson, as I have in the past, is not because I'm dissatisfied with him. It's because I think his game probably topped out and keeping an eye down the road towards his next UFA year, which comes up as he enters his age 35 season, I don't want to get stuck with another declining asset.

The moves you're suggesting that we make only dump salary, with the exception of Varlamov which should get us a 1st round pick and a prospect provided we wait until the 2023 TDL when goalies should be in high demand again.

If it wasn't for our lack of center's in the system, I would be inclined to agree and sell high on Nelson but
still feel he has a value contract and we wouldn't be able to fill in his pre-2021-22 production for less

 

[duster19]

i think Mikheyev is a name to keep an eye for

I am interested in him for sure. He could end up like Kapenen, though.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

Ya we'll be so hard-pressed, Bailey is such a bargain...that's why you and every other Isles fan wants to trade him.

So far the most compelling positive point raised about Bailey that may entice other GM's is his ability to raise his game in the playoffs. The guy has been good for us in the post-season. But other than that, I don't see much for GM's to like overall.
- over 30
- doesn't shoot
- doesn't score
- doesn't drive play
- not great defensively
- high cap hit for 2 more years

I said YOU would be hard pressed to list 20 FA forwards that are a better bargain than the 2/10 (and only 7 million owed)- instead you twist my words and repeat the same talking points.
He has never been a shooter or scorer, rather he is a facilitator (no one not named Barzal averages more assists in their career than him currently on our roster) and OF COURSE teams value that...

Those that want to trade him is because we have more pressing needs, particularly a goal scorer for the top line and of course blueline re-enforcements, particularly a 2nd line LD.
Of course you knew this before you made that obtuse opening of your response.

Again, 5 million is about the going rate for 50-pt players and he HAS NOT shown any real decline you suggest, and yes teams do in fact value that. Plus his ability to play on both special teams (and yes he would be a SH option and at minimum PP2 option wherever he goes) would also be valued as well as his postseason success and overall experience...

Considering this is not a good FA market (for the reasons I mentioned above), Bailey has considerable value- and the fact that he has only 2 years remaining on his deal and is owed only 7 million in cash- it outweighs significantly the high cap hit you keep harping on (again, which in itself makes little sense when that is exactly what 50 pt scorers get paid)...

 

[periferal]

Some here keep arguing Bailey's value in a vacuum. Unfortunately there's a cap involved so it's not about what Bailey brings on the ice...It's what other teams can afford to trade for him given their cap situation.

Given his age really only a contender is a fit for a trade, but how many of them can fit 5M into their 22-23 and 23-24 caps...Much less for a middle-6 forward? Not many.

Heck - If Bailey only cost 1M we'd be keeping him. Therefore his overall value isn't only what he brings on ice.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

Some here keep arguing Bailey's value in a vacuum. Unfortunately there's a cap involved so it's not about what Bailey brings on the ice...It's what other teams can afford to trade for him given their cap situation.

Given his age really only a contender is a fit for a trade, but how many of them can fit 5M into their 22-23 and 23-24 caps...Much less for a middle-6 forward? Not many.

Heck - If Bailey only cost 1M we'd be keeping him. Therefore his overall value isn't only what he brings on ice.

Yes I weighed that. Still, see it as no assets going either way in moving him....that is basically where I am at.

Nothing of real value anyways....

 

[BelovedIsles]

I couid see a rebuilding club value Bailey for his two-way game, playmaking, and experience. Ottawa, Arizona etc.

 

[TeamKidd]

I couid see a rebuilding club value Bailey for his two-way game, playmaking, and experience. Ottawa, Arizona etc.

and getting to the cap floor while not having to pay out salary...

 

[Throttle]

Bailey was almost a PPG player back in 17/18, but then Trotz was brought in and stunted his offense. If he only had better wingers to pass to. But, he still has potential…

 

[doublechili]

I couid see a rebuilding club value Bailey for his two-way game, playmaking, and experience. Ottawa, Arizona etc.

Plus his cap hit is higher than the $$ a team actually has to pay him. That's attractive to some teams.

 

[Throttle]

I couid see a rebuilding club value Bailey for his two-way game, playmaking, and experience. Ottawa, Arizona etc.

Bailey has value - isles fans just love to nitpick the heck out of him. Most are just bitter he hasn’t turned out into some franchise player because he was picked in the first round. Remember, most wanted Filatov, the ‘next Bure.’

He’s the Top 3 forward by points in his entire draft class, behind Stamkos and another Isles fan favorite Eberle.

 

[doublechili]

and getting to the cap floor while not having to pay out salary...

I posted before seeing this.

 

[lafellaesobar]

I am interested in him for sure. He could end up like Kapenen, though.

could also end up as a better player than Beau, just saying

 

[YearlyLottery]

Some here keep arguing Bailey's value in a vacuum. Unfortunately there's a cap involved so it's not about what Bailey brings on the ice...It's what other teams can afford to trade for him given their cap situation.

Given his age really only a contender is a fit for a trade, but how many of them can fit 5M into their 22-23 and 23-24 caps...Much less for a middle-6 forward? Not many.

Heck - If Bailey only cost 1M we'd be keeping him. Therefore his overall value isn't only what he brings on ice.

This is where I think you're wrong. If he gets traded my money would be on him not going to a contender.

 

[SI]

Who did Kurtz mention in his athletic article as D targets this offseason?