Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[IslesNorway]

This is supposedly a strong draft 1-5. The entire first round is not weak.

And if you say Bailey is a top 6 facilitator doesn't that indicate top and 2nd line?

No it's not. If you read the reports you can sense the lacklustre descriptions all the agencies have of these players. None are talked of being anything more than serviceable NHLers in the future. There are no stars, no top line forwards or top pairing defencemen available at the top of this draft. I think the Devils will have a hard time moving that #2 overall too. Of course, there could be a superstar or two coming out of this draft, but they may well be taken at 13, 22, 30 or 42 as at the top.

Move Nelson for a player whose career may not even be on par with Nelson's? Think not.

If any moves are to be made at this draft, it's getting rid of players like Varlmaov, Bailey, Beau, Martin etc.

 

[The Real JT]

I’ll try to maintain my optimism for the upcoming year but I see us in a retooling phase rather than being a prime contender. If we make it to the playoffs then all the better but I prefer Lou’s focus is to strengthen the roster for the intermediate term rather than next year.

With that being said, I believe that moving Varly for the right price is the way to go this offseason. I think nearly everyone would agree that Sorokin is the Isles #1G now and in the future. There’s no 1A/1B thing going on if we really want to win.

It’s nice to have a backup win a few games during the season but I’ve also seen enough of Varly and his random head scratching softees to know that he’s not raising the Cup for the Isles as the #1G.

 

[LeapOnOver]

Yup I am almost there with ya. We are getting very close to where it makes sense to blow things up a bit and get younger...at least with the forward group.
I want to give them 1 more season though. Mainly to give guys like Wahlstrom and Beauvillier one last chance. If they still can't raise their game, then we're dead in the water.

And wtf is this love affair with Bailey? The guy is literally a dime a dozen player at this point in his career...AND he's overpaid to top it off! But if another team wants to take him off our hands you won't hear me complain. I doubt it happens tho, not without some type of sweetener.

Imo the moveable piece that teams are actually interested in is Varlamov.

I totally get how some think Varly should stay...but honestly I don't see any other way for Lou to open up the needed cap space. Finding someone to take Bailey may be an impossible task. And I don't think he trades Beau. So that leaves Lou with only 1 choice: finding Varly a new home.

I don't get the 'Bailey needs a sweetener' talk. We just saw Ryan McDonagh get traded with no sweetener...they are at the exact same points in there careers and McDonagh's owed money and cap hit are a million to a million and 5 higher than Bailey. There's just no world where I see Bailey needs sweeteners to be moved and the proof just happened.

Even if you bring in the position argument, I'll offset it with the money difference making their situations even.

 

[PK Cronin]

Yup I am almost there with ya. We are getting very close to where it makes sense to blow things up a bit and get younger...at least with the forward group.
I want to give them 1 more season though. Mainly to give guys like Wahlstrom and Beauvillier one last chance. If they still can't raise their game, then we're dead in the water.

And wtf is this love affair with Bailey? The guy is literally a dime a dozen player at this point in his career...AND he's overpaid to top it off! But if another team wants to take him off our hands you won't hear me complain. I doubt it happens tho, not without some type of sweetener.

Imo the moveable piece that teams are actually interested in is Varlamov.

I totally get how some think Varly should stay...but honestly I don't see any other way for Lou to open up the needed cap space. Finding someone to take Bailey may be an impossible task. And I don't think he trades Beau. So that leaves Lou with only 1 choice: finding Varly a new home.

Zero chance there's a sweetener added to Bailey and he's not overpaid. Look at comparable contracts around the league, his deal is right where it should be for a player like him.

 

[YearlyLottery]

I’ll try to maintain my optimism for the upcoming year but I see us in a retooling phase rather than being a prime contender. If we make it to the playoffs then all the better but I prefer Lou’s focus is to strengthen the roster for the intermediate term rather than next year.

With that being said, I believe that moving Varly for the right price is the way to go this offseason. I think nearly everyone would agree that Sorokin is the Isles #1G now and in the future. There’s no 1A/1B thing going on if we really want to win.

It’s nice to have a backup win a few games during the season but I’ve also seen enough of Varly and his random head scratching softees to know that he’s not raising the Cup for the Isles as the #1G.

What do you think the right price for Varlamov is? Are we talking value or roster players back in general? I would be absolutely fine with them getting a 1st round pick plus a prospect back in return. I am not sure what the value for a roster player in return would be though.

 

[Sheva7]

I don't get the 'Bailey needs a sweetener' talk. We just saw Ryan McDonagh get traded with no sweetener...they are at the exact same points in there careers and McDonagh's owed money and cap hit are a million to a million and 5 higher than Bailey. There's just no world where I see Bailey needs sweeteners to be moved and the proof just happened.

Even if you bring in the position argument, I'll offset it with the money difference making their situations even.

The position IS the argument tho. What just happened doesn't prove anything. Almost every team in the league could use a dman like McDonough...even at his high cap hit.

Question is, who the heck is interested in a Josh Bailey?? What GM's do you think are calling Lou asking about Bailey?? lol please. His cap hit is a huge turn off. At best, there MAY be less than a small handful of teams interested. At best!
If GMs are calling, it's for Varlamov.

I'm not even a Bailey hater, just being realistic. There isn't much of a market for 15 goal forwards who eat 5M of cap space. I could be wrong but I just don't see a deal being made without something else being added to sweeten the pot.

 

[Sheva7]

Zero chance there's a sweetener added to Bailey and he's not overpaid. Look at comparable contracts around the league, his deal is right where it should be for a player like him.

His deal is an anchor. If he gets traded for anything you should be happy to drive him to the airport.

 

[YearlyLottery]

His deal is an anchor. If he gets traded for anything you should be happy to drive him to the airport.

Bailey drives me a little crazy. I have been happy with the player he has developed into and honestly think he is just a middle six forward. He can really play in any situation and be serviceable. He seems like the perfect fit for a lower level team that likely won't make the playoffs but want the young guys to learn how to be professionals.

I'm not saying the return would be anything worthwhile. But there is certainly a market for a guy like Bailey. It is just whether or not Lou is willing to accept a lackluster return for a guy who can really play anywhere in the lineup.

 

[IslandersFan17]

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

Zero chance there's a sweetener added to Bailey and he's not overpaid. Look at comparable contracts around the league, his deal is right where it should be for a player like him.

Bingo.

People need to start doing some homework instead of just using their emotions, etc.

Production is the central thing that values contracts in professional sports and that is even more the case in the NHL. And the going rate when all is said and done is about a million per 10 points they average, especially when you are talking about established players. It is why Fiala got his 8 million (coming off his career-best 85 points), why Forsberg will get his 8-9 million (84-point season and he did it in 69 games) and why Calgary risks losing Gadreau unless they get to that 10 number (115 point season and reportedly the Flames aren't even at the 9 million AAV mark). Those guys are young enough that they deserve that type of contract, but unfortunately that is also why some team will give Kadri (32 when next season starts) a ridiculous 8 million for his "out of norrm" 87 point season in just 71 games (pray it is not us)....but the fact is that is basically the going rate..

That is even more the case when you are talking about vets who are already signed to a contract and you are wanting to put the "underpaid" or "overpaid" label on them.

Josh Bailey is also a 50 pt per 82 which goes hand in hand with his 5 million contract. He is still more than capable of getting to that number in the final two years of his contract. So he too is NOT OVERPAID.

Yes, of course you can evaluate many other things in you analysis when making your decision like defense, how good they are on special teams, face offs, etc- but ultimately production is what matters most.

The reason we are looking to move him is because we need more scoring (he has never scored 20 goals in a season) and some blue line re-enforcements, and we need that cap space to acquire such. Josh Bailey should NOT cost other assets to move, especially when another team can have those 50 points at a "cash" discount of 7 million which is all that is owed to him...

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

Bailey is arguably the second best passer (facilitating) forward on our team- again proven by his per82 of almost 40 assists per season in almost a decade (9 years)- doing it mind you by getting over 18 minutes of ice time in a single season ONCE.

If you have a "scoring" winger and center on a second line I could see him netting 40-50 assists (and therefore putting up 60 points) in the final two years of his contract. Considering he could also be cemented on your PP2 as well as help out SH.....there is value in that.

No, you aren't getting anything of real value back because of his cap hit (and opposing teams know we are looking for the cap space); but you should not have to add any assets either to move him; especially like I repeat that "other team" will be getting those likely 50 points per and his 14-year experience for 7 million out of pocket money over those 2 seasons (3.5 per)

 

[MJF]

No it's not. If you read the reports you can sense the lacklustre descriptions all the agencies have of these players. None are talked of being anything more than serviceable NHLers in the future. There are no stars, no top line forwards or top pairing defencemen available at the top of this draft. I think the Devils will have a hard time moving that #2 overall too. Of course, there could be a superstar or two coming out of this draft, but they may well be taken at 13, 22, 30 or 42 as at the top.

Move Nelson for a player whose career may not even be on par with Nelson's? Think not.

If any moves are to be made at this draft, it's getting rid of players like Varlmaov, Bailey, Beau, Martin etc.

There's not a superstar in the draft. But then since when is Brock Nelson a superstar? He's our best player but he's no superstar. And I've had it banged into me over the past week that Nelson, coming off his best season with an unsustainable shooting percentage, would be hard pressed to do it again this season. A player like that I'd be inclined to sell high on.

So I don't get a sense that the top 5 players ranked in the draft are lackluster. What they seem to be is serviceable with the top 2 presenting qualities that not too many on our roster have in abundance.

Again, because I suggest trading Nelson, as I have in the past, is not because I'm dissatisfied with him. It's because I think his game probably topped out and keeping an eye down the road towards his next UFA year, which comes up as he enters his age 35 season, I don't want to get stuck with another declining asset.

The moves you're suggesting that we make only dump salary, with the exception of Varlamov which should get us a 1st round pick and a prospect provided we wait until the 2023 TDL when goalies should be in high demand again.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

What do you think the right price for Varlamov is? Are we talking value or roster players back in general? I would be absolutely fine with them getting a 1st round pick plus a prospect back in return. I am not sure what the value for a roster player in return would be though.

That is probably a little too rich of a return. I doubt he nets that since only one year remains on his contract and it is at a relatively high cap hit of 5 million.

I dont think teams will be too scared off by him only starting 64 games the last two seasons, not when he was very good in them (.920 save pct, 2.36 GAA, 9 SHO) and also started 14 in the postseason (.922. 2.56) while still being only 34 years old. But I doubt he can return both a 1st and a prospect.

One could argue though there are about a dozen teams that are unsettled at goalie, so I could see a late first being offered or a 2nd+prospect package.

The whole thing for the Islanders to consider would be is it worth 3 million in cap space (His 5 million minus the likely 2 million it would cost to find a backup for Sorokin).

Lou doesn't seem to want to move him, but if trading/signing a "difference maker" for the top line to put with Matty AND/or a really good young 2D to put with Dobby- saving 3 million in cap space and getting what is likely to be the best assets for anyone we could realistically trade....might be worth it...

 

[CupHolders]

Lou owed it to the 2021 Islanders to give them another chance to make it to the Finals. He brought them back, we had everything that was outside of our control go wrong last season and we missed the playoffs. But as I said to @JKP the Eastern Conference in particular and the league in general is trending away from the heavy game, and going towards speed and skill. Bringing back the same roster again isn't going to get it done and the rest of the league isn't waiting for us to catch up.

The extenuating circumstances sucked but those are the breaks. That's why I always say how much it hurts to lose in a deep playoff run. You never know if you're ever getting back there. Time marches on.

All fair and a well reasoned explanation. Thank you. I guess were we still differ in opinion, is how many changes would constitute NOT bringing back the same team?

I am still of the opinion that 2-3 substantial changes is enough to be impactful. Where you likely feel the team would be fundamentally the same… and still not good enough to succeed.

To further clarify, I’m not suggesting these 2-3 substantial changes are a guarantee to make the Isles a major competitor. But like others have mentioned, I’m willing to support Lou trying again this offseason.

They could very well fall flat again, at which point I’m fine with them investigating a rebuild starting this deadline and next offseason. Possibly under new management even.

 

[Sheva7]

Bailey is arguably the second best passer (facilitating) forward on our team- again proven by his per82 of almost 40 assists per season in almost a decade (9 years)- doing it mind you by getting over 18 minutes of ice time in a single season ONCE.

If you have a "scoring" winger and center on a second line I could see him netting 40-50 assists (and therefore putting up 60 points) in the final two years of his contract. Considering he could also be cemented on your PP2 as well as help out SH.....there is value in that.

No, you aren't getting anything of real value back because of his cap hit (and opposing teams know we are looking for the cap space); but you should not have to add any assets either to move him; especially like I repeat that "other team" will be getting those likely 50 points per and his 14-year experience for 7 million out of pocket money over those 2 seasons (3.5 per)

He's scored 22 goals in his last 128 games. With only 164 shots on net over that same period.

That isn't good. Assists are nice, but IMO goals and shots are what teams really want.

Another thing many fail to realize is that the guy is getting older and likely to decline. Some would say he's already in-decline.

Now, we both agree that the chances of us getting anything of value back in a Bailey trade are thin. I just think that for the reasons above, we should be happily surprised if he's dealt without having to add something else.

 

[CupHolders]

What do you think the right price for Varlamov is? Are we talking value or roster players back in general? I would be absolutely fine with them getting a 1st round pick plus a prospect back in return. I am not sure what the value for a roster player in return would be though.

In a vacuum, where geopolitical concerns with Russia do not exist… I’d jump on Varlamov to capitals for Samsonov and a pick.

Pick wouldn’t be a first, likely a third, hopefully a second.

 

[CupHolders]

He's scored 22 goals in his last 128 games. With only 164 shots on net over that same period.

That isn't good. Assists are nice, but IMO goals and shots are what teams really want.

Another thing many fail to realize is that the guy is getting older and likely to decline. Some would say he's already in-decline.

Now, we both agree that the chances of us getting anything of value back in a Bailey trade are thin. I just think that for the reasons above, we should be happily surprised if he's dealt without having to add something else.

I don’t think anyone expects anything back for Bailey as much as the Isles shouldn’t have to pay to get rid of him.

Based on another of your posts, you are slightly mistaken that his cap hit is a negative. As his lower actual salary makes it a positive for a cap floor team. Especially one that needs to fill out several roster spots without many substantial RFAs to sign.

 

[lafellaesobar]

good stuff. front office needs more help, and he seems to be a Euro specialist. With our affinity for Finnish players as of late, this really can help down the road

 

[Skip To My Lou]

Anyone who has an Athletic subscription, there's a good article written about him a few years ago Meet the ‘closer’ who continues to deliver free agents to the Maple Leafs

 

[Chardo]

Anyone who has an Athletic subscription, there's a good article written about him a few years ago Meet the ‘closer’ who continues to deliver free agents to the Maple Leafs

What free agents has he been instrumental in signing?

 

[seabass45]

His deal is an anchor. If he gets traded for anything you should be happy to drive him to the airport.

Dude has 39 points in 49 playoff games under Trotz and we’re acting like we have to attach a first to get rid of him.

 

[lafellaesobar]

What free agents has he been instrumental in signing?

Mikheyev, Zaitsev, Ozihganov, Lindholm, Semyonov, Lehonenn, and Barabanov. Not bad.

 

[crashthenet]

Varly isn't getting traded in the off-season.

Teams like Buffalo and the Sens would benefit from having Bailey on their team. I am not sure he goes before Beau however.

Plenty of middle six, bottom six guys available in free agency. Not many second pairing LD. Zadarov and Chariot, two guys that not many on this board wanted last year. That leaves Leddy, Cole and Ruuta, who can play the left side as options. Plenty of competition for all five likely.

Should be interesting.

 

[YearlyLottery]

Dude has 39 points in 49 playoff games under Trotz and we’re acting like we have to attach a first to get rid of him.

I think him being a proven playoff performer is something that people don't like to admit. I will say that Bailey is one player I would absolutely love to see lift the Cup in an Isles jersey.

 

[Chardo]

Mikheyev, Zaitsev, Ozihganov, Lindholm, Semyonov, Lehonenn, and Barabanov. Not bad.

Not bad at all. Hope he can sell them on the Islanders. Very different sales pitch than Toronto.