Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[SI]

I'd trade for Rutger and Ehlers anyways but the islanders basically need to do their version of the Lindholm to Calgary trade. Nelson will go back.

Nelson will definitely have Winnipeg on his NT list, which is modified, but for sure Winnipeg and most Canadian teams are on it.

 

[leeroggy]

If by "quiet" you mean "unreliable," then yes - The train is always on schedule.

The train is always on schedule . . .

That's gold. But tough to say to Amtrak/NJ Transit patrons today.

 

[mm11]

Admit it, this is just your way of saying you're hoping Lou will grab this guy...

View attachment 886011

Bingo

 

[SI]

There are only so many days before the draft and I know we differ on many things on this board, but the one thing we are in agreement is that Lou will trade the 20 OA pick in 2024 for a top 6 F or top 4 D man. Who that will be is anybody's guess.

Nik Ehlers has been a popular name circled. Sharangovich and Buchnevich are others that fit the profile, might need more than 20 OA to pry Buchnevich from the Blues.

LL and Isles were heavily scouting Ottawa late in the season on several occasions and Shane Pinto and Jakob Chychrun immediately come to mind. Pinto has done well to bounce back after his suspension, but before that, there were tough contract negotiations and MAYBE he is available for the right price. Is the 20 OA enough? probably not. Chychrun and Chabot are available, both may been moved by the draft or on draft day (Chabot's 8 AAV might be tough but I think there are teams like UTAH who would do that).

My probability scale - 1 (very unlikely), 2 (unlikely), 3 (not that likely), 2 (probably), 1 (Likely)

A successful NYI offseason would see them:

1. Lock up Dobson and Romanov long-term - Sorokin, Pulock, & Barzal were all extended before they ever became RFAs. Probability - 1 likely.
2. Add a top 6 F, preferably one to skate with Bo and Maty Probability - 1 (likely) for one
3. Add another top 6 F to skate with Nelson and Palmieri - 3 (not that likely), but if they aimed lower and got a top 9 - 2 probably.
4. Add a PMD - 1 (likely) for one - most likely Reilly gets resigned. I have also mentioned the possibility that Jake Bean will not be qualified and maybe Lou can sign him to a 1 year deal for cheap. Or Wahlstrom for Heinola trade.
5. Create cap space

Moving out salary and creating cap space -

1. With the acquisition of an extra 2nd rounder this draft - a shrewd move by LL - it screams the pick could be used to send a contract away, see Ladd and Bailey as examples. IMO, the most logical choice would be to send Lee with two 2nd round picks (one '24 and one '25) to be free of Anders' 7m cap hit this year and next. Probability - on a scale of 1 to 5 with 5 likely to happen and 1 very, very likely. I would say this is a 2, unlikely.
2. Palmieri did a wonderful job rebuilding his value by scoring 30 goals and playing all 82 games. I doubt we see that again. IMO, moving Palmieri for an asset and creating 5m cap space this year to get an upgrade from Palmieri. Probability - 3, not that unlikely, but probably not.
3. JGP is the name most posters and pundits throw out there, but I would like to say that Arthur Staple - who returned to cover the Isles on the Athletic when Kurz left for the city of brotherly love- on a podcast mentioned that Lou turned down a deal for JGP at the deadline. Roy also loves the guy. IMO, he doesn't need a pick attached - for a RH 3C making 5m for the next 2 seasons, would not be difficult to move. Goodrow with 3 years at 3.65 AAV was waived and claimed. If the Isles thought they needed to attach an asset to get rid JGP, they should just waive him, because he would get claimed. IMO, I would NOT trade him - I would move Lee or Palmieri before him. I like strong C depth and they would be creating another hole in the lineup once they moved him. Probability - 2 probably gets traded - just because he has been mentioned so often.
4. Pulock has also been thrown out there in an Ehlers trade or Marner trade... This ain't going to happen. Probability - 1 very, very unlikely.
5. Pelech has also been thrown out there in trade possibilities - I see this being more likely next season, but Nashville needs a defender like Pelech, especially after they moved McDonough. Return could be two second-rounders (2024 and 2025) and a prospect or maybe Tomasino straight up - Evangelista has moved passed him on the depth chart. Probability - 3, not that likely - maybe a 2 unlikely.
6. No one and still creating space - LL can acquire a player like Ehlers and then send another 2nd rounder to Montreal to eat 50% of the contract. Why MTL? MTL will be putting Price's contract (10.5) on LTIR, but to give them the most flexibility they will need to get as close to 10.5 to fully maximize their LTIR cap hit. Ehlers for the 20th OA and a 2024 2nd to MTL to park 50% of the cap hit.

If they don't move anyone
F

1. Ehlers (3m) - Horvat (8.5) - Barzal (9.15)
2. Engvall (3m) - Nelson (6) - Palmieri (5)
3. Holmstrom (.875) - Pageau (5) - Tsyplakov (.95)
4. Lee (7) - Cizikas (2.5) - Fasching (.775)/Maclean(.775)

D

1. Romanov (2.5) - Dobson (4)
2. Pelech (5.75) - Pulock (6.15)
3. Reilly (1.75) - Mayfield (3.5)
4. Bolduc (.8)

G

1. Sorokin (8.25)
2. Varlamov (2.75)

22 man roster @ 87,975,000 - 25K under 88

 

[SI]

Here is a model where they move JGP and sign top 6 UFA.

F

1. Lee (7) - Barzal (9.15) - Toffoli (5m)
2. Tsyplakov (.95) - Horvat (8.5) - Ehlers (3m)
3. Engvall (3m) - Nelson (6) - Palmieri (5)
4. Holmstrom (.875) - Cizikas (2.5) - Fasching (.775)/Maclean(.775)

D

1. Romanov (2.5) - Dobson (4)
2. Pelech (5.75) - Pulock (6.15)
3. Reilly (1.75) - Mayfield (3.5)
4. Bolduc (.8)

G

1. Sorokin (8.25)
2. Varlamov (2.75)

22 man roster @ 87,975,000 - 25K under 88

Here is a model where they move LEE and sign top 6 UFA.

F

1. Barzal (9.15) - Horvat (8.5) - Marchessault (6.5m)
2. Ehlers (3m) - Nelson(6) - Palmieri (5)
3. Engvall (3m) - Pageau (5) - Tsyplakov (.95)
4. Holmstrom (.875) - Cizikas (2.5) - Fasching (.775)/Maclean(.775)

D

1. Romanov (2.5) - Dobson (4)
2. Pelech (5.75) - Pulock (6.15)
3. Reilly (1.75) - Mayfield (3.5)
4. Bolduc (.8)

G

1. Sorokin (8.25)
2. Varlamov (2.75)

22 man roster @ 87,475,000 - 525K under 88

 

[BelovedIsles]

I prefer Ehlers over Toffoli. Younger, faster, creates more. Toffoli is a plodding one-dimensional scorer. Ehlers could match his 30 goals with Barzal and Horvat, while also creating possession/multidimensional offense.

 

[scott99]

Top 4 defense is a priority. Can’t go into next year with the same exact defensive pairings.

I would like Ehlers or Toffoli, but not holding my breath.

 

[SI]

Here is a model where they move LEE (attaching TWO 2nd round picks), acquire Chychrun, and sign a top 6 UFA.

F

1. Barzal (9.15) - Horvat (8.5) - Toffoli (5)
2. Engvall (3) - Nelson (6) - Palmieri (5)
3. Holmstrom (.875) - Pageau (5) - Tsyplakov (.95)
4. Maclean(.775)- Cizikas (2.5) - Clutterbuck (1)/Fasching (.775)

D

1. Romanov (2.5) - Dobson (4)
2. Chychrun (4.6) - Pulock (6.15)
3. Pelech (5.75) - Mayfield (3.5)
4. Bolduc (.8)

G

1. Sorokin (8.25)
2. Varlamov (2.75)

22 man roster @ 87,825,000 - 175K under 88

 

[FoxYou727]

Here is a model where they move LEE (attaching TWO 2nd round picks), acquire Chychrun, and sign a top 6 UFA.

F

1. Barzal (9.15) - Horvat (8.5) - Toffoli (5)
2. Engvall (3) - Nelson (6) - Palmieri (5)
3. Holmstrom (.875) - Pageau (5) - Tsyplakov (.95)
4. Maclean(.775)- Cizikas (2.5) - Clutterbuck (1)/Fasching (.775)

D

1. Romanov (2.5) - Dobson (4)
2. Chychrun (4.6) - Pulock (6.15)
3. Pelech (5.75) - Mayfield (3.5)
4. Bolduc (.8)

G

1. Sorokin (8.25)
2. Varlamov (2.75)

22 man roster @ 87,825,000 - 175K under 88

If either Martin or Cal returns next year than it will be clear this team is going no where

Obviously I would rather have Chychrun over Mike Rielly but if we are trading for him I see no reason to keep Pelech. One to many concussions and will be playing 3LD

Toffoli is a nice add

 

[IslesNorway]

With a week-ten days to pretty much determine this, I make my last Cap Friendly "hopeful" offseason plan, keeping these notions as pretty much set in my book:

1. LW/RW Pierre Engvall and RD Scotty Mayfield are all but untradeable, thanks to the insane extensions Lou gave them last offseason

2. LW Anders Lee isn't getting traded. Despite the obvious of the 2 years and 7 million cap still looming on his contract, I don't even see Lou approaching the captain on a potential move.

3. G Semyon Varlamov won't be dealt either. As much as one could argue that doing so might net us a nice return and benefit us greatly, I see no indication that Lou would consider it; especially with his reluctance in the past and Sorokin's subpar performance last season

4. C Brock Nelson and LW/RW Kyle Palmieri won't be going anywhere either. Sure, it could happen, but when you are trying to add to the TOP 6 as it is with minimal cap space and assets, it only complicates matters more when you trade one of your 4 forwards who are, coupled with the fact that these two were 2 of your 3 thirty goal scorers from last season. The only hope here of course is that Lou does consider moving both come the deadline if we are out of the playoff picture

5. I still think C Jean-Gabriel Pageau is the regular that is shipped out and I still think there is a small chance that if he is able to move another it will be one of Adam Pelech or Ryan Pulock rather than one of our forwards....

Final Roster:

Ehlers-Horvat-Barzal
Lee-Nelson-Palmieri
Engvall-Cizikas-Kaliyev/Tsyplakov
Blueger-Carrick-Holmstrom

Romanov-Dobson
Pelech- Chychrun
Reilly- Mayfield

MacLean-Desharnais

Sorokin-Varlamov

Taxi: Fasching-Iskhakov-Bolduc
Draft: Hage-Badinka

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

I agree on all your points listed above, but I simply cannot see the Islanders dealing Pulock for Ehlers. Pulock is signed for 6 more years and Ehlers is a UFA next summer. Only if Ehlers comes wwith an extension is that deal done, but no way does Pulock want to move to Winnipeg.

The whole problem with dealing with the Jets is the undesirability of their location. You can be pretty sure they are on nearly every player's NT list, so making a deal of that magnitude with them is nigh on impossible. I can see them wanting Ehlers but it will be for a pick.

It's a horrible fact but ALL the Islanders players who might be wanted by other teams have an NTC or NMC. I'm not counting Dobson and Romanov in, but they will get NTCs as soon as they sign their hefty extensions (expect 7-8y years, it's Lou we're talking about). The only senior player without protection is Cizikas, and he's an Isles lifer.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

I agree on all your points listed above, but I simply cannot see the Islanders dealing Pulock for Ehlers. Pulock is signed for 6 more years and Ehlers is a UFA next summer. Only if Ehlers comes wwith an extension is that deal done, but no way does Pulock want to move to Winnipeg.

The whole problem with dealing with the Jets is the undesirability of their location. You can be pretty sure they are on nearly every player's NT list, so making a deal of that magnitude with them is nigh on impossible. I can see them wanting Ehlers but it will be for a pick.

It's a horrible fact but ALL the Islanders players who might be wanted by other teams have an NTC or NMC. I'm not counting Dobson and Romanov in, but they will get NTCs as soon as they sign their hefty extensions (expect 7-8y years, it's Lou we're talking about). The only senior player without protection is Cizikas, and he's an Isles lifer.

I did write that Ehlers would be in fact signing an extension, but I couldn't agree more that I think it is also highly unlikely Pulock is moved- and yes, no argument either about the attractiveness (or lack thereof) of The Peg

 

[Top Corner]

With the cap issues for a majority of teams, not sure what can get done to reshape this roster but it’s going to take a few names to be moved.
Walking this team back into the new season without big changes is more likely to see another dogfight to just get to the playoffs. I would be surprised if we don’t see at least 3 new faces.

 

[seafoam]

I agree on all your points listed above, but I simply cannot see the Islanders dealing Pulock for Ehlers. Pulock is signed for 6 more years and Ehlers is a UFA next summer. Only if Ehlers comes wwith an extension is that deal done, but no way does Pulock want to move to Winnipeg.

The whole problem with dealing with the Jets is the undesirability of their location. You can be pretty sure they are on nearly every player's NT list, so making a deal of that magnitude with them is nigh on impossible. I can see them wanting Ehlers but it will be for a pick.

It's a horrible fact but ALL the Islanders players who might be wanted by other teams have an NTC or NMC. I'm not counting Dobson and Romanov in, but they will get NTCs as soon as they sign their hefty extensions (expect 7-8y years, it's Lou we're talking about). The only senior player without protection is Cizikas, and he's an Isles lifer.

You basically need to trade Holmstrom and 20th overall and then clear cap in a seperate deal.

 

[impaaaaaact]

You think Nelson, First, Third, Bolduc is enough to grab Ehlers and Mcgroarty (if they would both sign)?

 

[seafoam]

You think Nelson, First, Third, Bolduc is enough to grab Ehlers and Mcgroarty (if they would both sign)?

No.

 

[WangMustGo]

You think Nelson, First, Third, Bolduc is enough to grab Ehlers and Mcgroarty (if they would both sign)?

I think you’d be better off making separate deals. Nelson alone could return a 1st+. And Ehlers would likely receive a similar package. So you are moving a 1st, 3rd, and Buldoc for Mcgroarty. That’s too much IMO, especially if we have no guarantee that he will sign a contract here.

 

[impaaaaaact]

I think you’d be better off making separate deals. Nelson alone could return a 1st+. And Ehlers would likely receive a similar package. So you are moving a 1st, 3rd, and Buldoc for Mcgroarty. That’s too much IMO, especially if we have no guarantee that he will sign a contract here.

This whole thing would be predicated on all three players signing. Nelson leaving would open a spot for Mcgroarty, which is allegedly the reason he wants out. Maybe adding the third is too much, but I deal the first if it helps us replace a 34 y/o impending FA with an NHL ready 20 year old center and a 28 year old top 6 winger.

 

[WangMustGo]

This whole thing would be predicated on all three players signing. Nelson leaving would open a spot for Mcgroarty, which is allegedly the reason he wants out. Maybe adding the third is too much, but I deal the first if it helps us replace a 34 y/o impending FA with an NHL ready 20 year old center and a 28 year old top 6 winger.

If we knew he was signing I’d do that deal.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

I seriously doubt such a trade is remotely feasible. As someone mentioned before, Nelson has a 16 team list and it is likely filled with teams in Canada.

No, the likely outcome for this offseason is probably going to be much less exciting.

After getting Simon inked- and I think it is more than likely it is Pageau and one of his seconds that gets packaged off- it is what else Lou does.

He will have $10.5 million and a 1st and 2nd rounder at his disposal....needing AT LEAST 3 forwards (preferably two wings and a center) and 2 blueliners (3rd LD and a 7th D)...

Is Ehlers worth a 1st (and I think we would all agree that is a "no" without an extension)?
Who else is available for trade and one we realistically have the assets to acquire?
If he keeps his 1st rounder, who do we sign for the Top 6 instead?
Does he prioritize another puck moving D, adding another C or top six W?
Can he get a similar underperforming former high pick forward for Ollie?
Will Reilly get offers of over 2 million and if so, do we go a different direction?
How does he fill out the rest of the roster?

Should be interesting to say the least....

 

[periferal]

The train is always on schedule . . .

That's gold. But tough to say to Amtrak/NJ Transit patrons today.

That's literally more to the point of how "reliable" IB is.

 

[leeroggy]

That's literally more to the point of how "reliable" IB is.

I know! I'm just giving you kudos for how you worded it!

Prediction: We use all 3 picks, surprising everyone, then find a way to unload Pageau for a 3rd rounder, keeping $1.5 million of cap, and trade Pelech for a winger that no one had on their radar, including me . . . and don't ask WHO, that's why no one had them on their radar!

 

[IslesNorway]

You think Nelson, First, Third, Bolduc is enough to grab Ehlers and Mcgroarty (if they would both sign)?

Huge overpayment. Nelson is probably worth more than Ehlers on an open market. Even if he is a bit older, is by far a more proven player and scores more. A team looking to win would easily pay a king's ransom for him.

McGroarty's value is coming down fast if he's refusing to sign. He is probably at best worth a low 1st, possibly even less, if he is hellbent on certain destinations. And he is nothing but a prospect still, not an NHLer yet. As mentioned on the main board, the Rangers will probably get him for Kaakko straight up, or something similarly underwhelming.

Holmstrom and Nelson for Ehlers and McGroarty is probably not too far off in real value. Add minor bits and pieces here and there, but you'll never see Nelson waive for Winnipeg.

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

The farm is on life support right now. I'd really like to get a first round talent down there.

Use one or both of the seconds to move Pageau, then try your best to use the new cap space to get a LW for the Horvat line in UFA. Maybe Skinner if he gets bought out by Buffalo?

 

[impaaaaaact]

If we knew he was signing I’d do that deal.

No. (Wouldn’t get it done)

Huge overpayment.

The split reactions usually tell me the value is pretty close lolol

 

[leeroggy]

The split reactions usually tell me the value is pretty close lolol

Or it means half the people have no idea what they're talking about . . .