Roster Building XXII: Too Many Forwards, Hopefully One Cup

[Svechhammer]

I'm not about to completely dismiss the idea that we could have f***ed around too much this offseason and are about to find out. I don't think we are as strong this year as we were last year on either defense or forward, I'm not overly sold on the guys we have brought in, and I do think our step backwards is going to coincide with a step forward for quite a few teams in the division.

NJ and NYR are clear of us. Washington has made some really sneaky good moves and I could see them take a big step forward. Pitt and NYI always seem to be in the mix regardless of what you think they have done, and Philly is adding Mitchov to a roster that showed it has serious potential for most of last year. I could easily see us in a dogfight with Pitt, NYI, Wash and Phi, with all teams separated by around 5 points. At that point, its a tossup.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Watch them win the division.

 

[chaz4hockey]

Watch them win the division.

It's not an unreasonable take.

It's quite possible Svetch, Necas, Jarvis, KK & Drury all improve nicely (breakout years from Svetch, Necas or Jarvis are quite possible) & Aho stays consistently good.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Watch them win the division.

I could easily see guys like Ghost way over-perform offensively, especially if he officially takes over PP1 responsibility from Burns, who will need more Spurs-style minutes management this season in order to keep his effectiveness. Add improvements from Svech, Jarvis, Necas, Drury, and maybe even a rebound season from KK, then potentially add a surprising rookie to the mix, and sure, I could see the Canes outperforming expectations. It's just that a lot needs to go right and it just feels like this may be New Jersey's year, at least on paper.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Watch them win the division.

That would be something else.

I mean were likely a 120 point team last season with an awful 4 weeks that dragged our overall points down. While possible, it would require a lot to go right for it to happen

 

[WreckingCrew]

I could easily see guys like Ghost way over-perform offensively, especially if he officially takes over PP1 responsibility from Burns, who will need more Spurs-style minutes management this season in order to keep his effectiveness. Add improvements from Svech, Jarvis, Necas, Drury, and maybe even a rebound season from KK, then potentially add a surprising rookie to the mix, and sure, I could see the Canes outperforming expectations. It's just that a lot needs to go right and it just feels like this may be New Jersey's year, at least on paper.

The biggest thing for me is that we really only have 4 proven top 6 guys... we're 100% banking on KK having breakout AND probably a rookie putting up 40-50 points because our only other options are guys like Carrier, Roslovic, Drury, and Nookie? An injury to any of our top 4 forwards could torpedo our season (I know that's true for many teams but most have higher-end depth but we're very mid-heavy). We're also still Charmin Ultra Soft

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

The biggest thing for me is that we really only have 4 proven top 6 guys... we're 100% banking on KK having breakout AND probably a rookie putting up 40-50 points because our only other options are guys like Carrier, Roslovic, and Nookie. An injury to any of our top 4 forwards could torpedo our season (I know that's true for many teams but most have higher-end depth but we're very mid-heavy). We're also still Charmin Ultra Soft

Roslovic actually has a history of providing some decent, slightly-above-Noesen-level offense. You probably don't want him on the top-6 permanently, but he or Jack Drury could definitely chip some minutes there to start the season if they choose to start all of their rookies in Chicago.

 

[Lempo]

Watch them win the division.

The Presidents' Trophy and first round exit.

 

[Ole Gil]

I'm not about to completely dismiss the idea that we could have f***ed around too much this offseason and are about to find out. I don't think we are as strong this year as we were last year on either defense or forward, I'm not overly sold on the guys we have brought in, and I do think our step backwards is going to coincide with a step forward for quite a few teams in the division.

NJ and NYR are clear of us. Washington has made some really sneaky good moves and I could see them take a big step forward. Pitt and NYI always seem to be in the mix regardless of what you think they have done, and Philly is adding Mitchov to a roster that showed it has serious potential for most of last year. I could easily see us in a dogfight with Pitt, NYI, Wash and Phi, with all teams separated by around 5 points. At that point, its a tossup.

The 81 point NJ Devils are clear of us?

 

[CandyCanes]

This isn’t the first time we’ve operated with a not very deep top 6. We could be looking at a similar season to the 19-20 season we had.


Here was our top 6.

Aho
TT
Svech

Then you had your questionable top 6 guys in…

Necas (rookie season)
Nino (He wasn’t good that year, only 11 goals)
J. Willy (But he was a last second addition, coming out of his fake retirement)

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1828199044239294496

Maybe we keep him at Svech’s aav but only do 7 years instead

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

My bull case…

Diminishing returns of depth: The team going into the playoffs last season was abnormally deep. Yet, the outcome was similar to that of teams of prior years. A legit Top 4 D on the 3rd pairing and a Top 6 forward on the 4th line is great to have in the event of injury, but there’s only so much that means in limited ice time. Thinner doesn’t have to mean worse.

Trust in pro scouting with the blueline: 3 years ago, they turned over half of the defense, including a major piece in Hamilton. That team went on to put up 116 points. There’s 3 for sure Top 4 D right now. In lieu of having a 4th and a cheap 3rd pairing, as conventional wisdom dictated, the money was spread out across 4-6. I’m willing to give that approach the benefit of the doubt.

Room for growth up front: Jarvis is the big one, but let’s see if there’s one last step from Svechnikov the year after his return from the ACL. With 1st unit PP time, Necas’ numbers will improve. Drury is a sleeper candidate to hit 40 points; he gelled with Necas for whatever reason and if they find their way back to each other as they did in the playoffs, quality of ice time will create the conditions for it.

 

[HisIceness]

If I had to guess.

Florida/NYR division winners

Carolina, Boston, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Toronto, New Jersey round out the playoff teams from the East.

I'm picking the Flyers because I think Michkov is going to inject life into that franchise and they already have a playoff-ish roster. Sabres because it seems like they've gotten tougher to play against, eventually the drought has to end, and it just seems like destiny that Ruff is the guy to get them back into the tournament. Devils just scream obvious.

Everyone else is a playoff team from last year. Pittsburgh/NYI/Detroit/ Washington/Tampa will be in the mix.

Columbus and Montreal are still a ways off, Ottawa honestly reminds me of our team circa 2015, just directionless and lost at sea.

I think that covers the East.


Just for fun, out West the playoff teams will be as follows

Dallas/Edmonton division winners

Vancouver, Los Angeles,

Nashville, St Louis

Seattle, Minnesota as the Wild-cards.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1828199044239294496

Maybe we keep him at Svech’s aav but only do 7 years instead

Potentially. Part of the calculus may also be that they're more comfortable with giving a second 8 year term to Jarvis at age 29 rather than age 30 (they see him as a possible Lifetime Cane in the same way as with Aho, Slavin, and maybe Svech if he takes another step within his contract).

 

[cptjeff]

Room for growth up front: Jarvis is the big one, but let’s see if there’s one last step from Svechnikov the year after his return from the ACL. With 1st unit PP time, Necas’ numbers will improve. Drury is a sleeper candidate to hit 40 points; he gelled with Necas for whatever reason and if they find their way back to each other as they did in the playoffs, quality of ice time will create the conditions for it.

I also wouldn't be surprised if FUS, Nadeau, or maybe Suzuki put in a really strong rookie season. We've gotten a few forwards seasoned in the system who really seem ready to step in, unlike when we would just throw rookies who weren't ready to the wolves.

 

[Chrispy]

I also wouldn't be surprised if FUS, Nadeau, or maybe Suzuki put in a really strong rookie season. We've gotten a few forwards seasoned in the system who really seem ready to step in, unlike when we would just throw rookies who weren't ready to the wolves.

Wait, isn't that the purpose of the Wolves?

 

[Tryamw]

Nope, we are domed. No outdoor game going to not be under the sky playing... domed I say domed.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Wait, isn't that the purpose of the Wolves?

You gotta remember, last year throwing kids to the Wolves meant no one paid attention to their development.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Kol was traded by his KHL team because the GM of the team believes that Krol will not sign a new contract with the team and come to NA at is 25-26 completion.

 

[SlavinAway]

Krol was traded by his KHL team because the GM of the team believes that Krol will not sign a new contract with the team and come to NA at is 25-26 completion.

Who?

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Who?

sorry, kol. slipped an r in there

 

[NotOpie]

So the Fast news puts an interesting twist on things. Likely Robinson, Carrier, and Lemieux make the squad. Jost is probably bound for Chicago. That gives us something like $7.1 million in cap space to sign Jarvis. If Morrow is bound for Chicago and we ice a 21 man roster (w/Fast on IR not LTIR), we're at a little over $8 million. That's enough to sign Jarvis, but not enough for any call ups until we accrue more cap space.

Feels like a Jarvis bridge deal could be in the offing.

 

[cptjeff]

So the Fast news puts an interesting twist on things. Likely Robinson, Carrier, and Lemieux make the squad. Jost is probably bound for Chicago. That gives us something like $7.1 million in cap space to sign Jarvis. If Morrow is bound for Chicago and we ice a 21 man roster (w/Fast on IR not LTIR), we're at a little over $8 million. That's enough to sign Jarvis, but not enough for any call ups until we accrue more cap space.

Feels like a Jarvis bridge deal could be in the offing.

Robinson will pretty certainly be in Chicago. Remember that we're holding spots for one or two rookie forwards- we have 4 or 5 guys who'll be battling for those spots in camp.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

So the Fast news puts an interesting twist on things. Likely Robinson, Carrier, and Lemieux make the squad. Jost is probably bound for Chicago. That gives us something like $7.1 million in cap space to sign Jarvis. If Morrow is bound for Chicago and we ice a 21 man roster (w/Fast on IR not LTIR), we're at a little over $8 million. That's enough to sign Jarvis, but not enough for any call ups until we accrue more cap space.

Feels like a Jarvis bridge deal could be in the offing.

We have 8.2 million in space with all those guys, including jost

 

[bleedgreen]

Robinson will pretty certainly be in Chicago. Remember that we're holding spots for one or two rookie forwards- we have 4 or 5 guys who'll be battling for those spots in camp.

I think we may be over stating the rookie thing a bit. Rod said there might be a spot for a kid. I think we signed enough guys to make sure we didn’t HAVE to play any of them and they all could benefit from some development aside from arguably Suzuki.

I could see Robinson making it over Jost and Lemieux. Jost is a center first and we have plenty of those, Lemieux is only really needed when we want a banger and Robinson is a pretty strong north/south winger with speed.

It’s going to be interesting. I’ve been in the mindset of Suzuki being the only “kid” who would be in the mix unless one of them really blows the doors off. We have so many bottom six guys and not enough top six you assume one of them would have to step into that kind of role. That’s a lot to ask and our coach has no issues playing a grinder in the top six.