Roster Building XXII: Too Many Forwards, Hopefully One Cup

[Lempo]

Just announce that due to difficult negotiations they have signed Jarvis to a one year offer sheet and will forfeit their own 1st and 3rd rounds picks to themselves after they declined to not match the OS. Then extend him on 1/1/25.

By the time the league untangles the press release it’ll be to late to extract punishment,

Hmm. The Sheriff Bart gambit.

 

[Borsig]

Page 24 would be a great time to stop f***ing around with being they predictable canes FO and sign Jarvis.

 

[Borsig]

I think the League could quite easily make a case that a team is intentionally seeking to circumvent the salary rules if the team signs its RFA to sequenced 1+8 year contracts especially if the 1 year SPC has a considerably lesser AAV which allows the team to sign another player who the team would not be able to sign if they right away extended the RFA to more expensive 8 year contract. The CBA 26.3 about circumventions is written so that the League has quite a massive amount of discretion in what is considered a circumvention.

But LTIR shenanigans and Guentzel being courted by TBL was okay

 

[Lempo]

But LTIR shenanigans and Guentzel being courted by TBL was okay

"quite a massive amount of discretion"

 

[WreckingCrew]

"quite a massive amount of discretion"

And with the TDA situation that was screwed up because of an odd schedule and would have broken the letter of the law but not the spirit of the law (whereas the others broke the spirit of the law but not the technical rules)...we know where they stand on the Canes attempts. Much like GI challenges by and against the Canes

 

[MinJaBen]

Some good Necas and other Cane info here:

32 Thoughts: A collection of late off-season notes

In a collection of late off-season thoughts, Elliotte Friedman writes about what he learned at the NHL/NHLPA European Media Tour, plus notes on Thatcher Demko, the two offer sheets Edmonton had to consider, and more.

www.sportsnet.ca

Well, Friedman is down on Marty's leadership skills, that is for sure. Stripped him of his "C" already.

 

[hblueridgegal]

One of the other talking heads, McCarthy, is hosting a Metro preview on Sirius today. He has the Canes finishing at 5th in the Metro! With all the turnover, I could see them sitting in that position early on in the season but not by the end. If only because I don't see TD tolerating retention and revenue losses so adjustments would be made.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

One of the other talking heads, McCarthy, is hosting a Metro preview on Sirius today. He has the Canes finishing at 5th in the Metro! With all the turnover, I could see them sitting in that position early on in the season but not by the end. If only because I don't see TD tolerating retention and revenue losses so adjustments would be made.

I could see the Rangers and Devils being ahead of Carolina this year. The Devils got bit by the injury bug last year, but the addition of Pesce and Markstrom, as well as L. Hughes and Nemec having a season under their belts, I expect them to bounce back. IIRC, Meier played better the 2nd half of the season as well and Keefe is a better fit for that squad.

Will the Canes drop off enough and 2 other teams improve enough to put them 5th? I guess it's possible.

Last year, Carolina had 52 wins and 44 Regulation wins.

Islanders had 39 and 29
Caps had 40 and 32
Pens had 38 and 32
Flyers had 38 and 30
Devils had 38 and 33 (but the prior season had 52 and 39)
CLB had 27 and 21.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Things would have to really fall off for us to finish behind the isles and pitt.

 

[chaz4hockey]

I could see the Rangers and Devils being ahead of Carolina this year. The Devils got bit by the injury bug last year, but the addition of Pesce and Markstrom, as well as L. Hughes and Nemec having a season under their belts, I expect them to bounce back. IIRC, Meier played better the 2nd half of the season as well and Keefe is a better fit for that squad.

Will the Canes drop off enough and 2 other teams improve enough to put them 5th? I guess it's possible.

Last year, Carolina had 52 wins and 44 Regulation wins.

Islanders had 39 and 29
Caps had 40 and 32
Pens had 38 and 32
Flyers had 38 and 30
Devils had 38 and 33 (but the prior season had 52 and 39)
CLB had 27 and 21.

Agree with Canes positioning behind Devils and Rangers.

Given their adds, I have Devils winning Division pretty easily with the Rangers 2nd. FWIW: several of Rangers top guys (Panerin, Kreider, Tro, Zibs, Trouba) are now in that 31 to 33 age level which should eventually lead to a drop off. Maybe not this year but it's coming.

Re: Canes-I think Walker was a really good add for the Canes system (very fast and aggressive) and Ghost will be decent as well. I worry about Burns-Slavin partnership (Burns aging/Slavin now in his 30's) falling off but Orlov-Chatty should be good.

Forward-wise, Carrier when healthy is a better Noesen and Aho-Svetch-Jarvis-Drury-KK-Necas are in their prime and/or still at age where they are improving. So, the drop-off x-Guentzel may not be bad at all. Of course, a fall-off due to a key player injury is always a risk and I don't know what we will get from Goaltending.

In any event, I see Canes in the playoffs. Optimistically, if we fall to 5th then we get a nice draft pick to contribute to an expected rise in Canes fortunes '25-'26 and beyond.

 

[AD Skinner]

I can definitely see the canes taking a step back but I don’t think the islanders or pens or flyers take the step forward it’ll take to knock the canes down that far. I do think the caps offseason was pretty good and they should tread water

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Pens didn’t fix anything this offseason. Their defense is going to have to do a 180 to give them a shot.

Islanders didn’t fix being old and slow. Duclair is just one depth guy.

Washington, while adding 2 defensive guys for really cheap, they added a lockeroom egnima who may drag the team down. Ovie is only getting older and more out of shape.

Devils success will depend on keeping the injury prone Hamilton and Hughes healthy (might include pesce in there too).

 

[Borsig]

One of the other talking heads, McCarthy, is hosting a Metro preview on Sirius today. He has the Canes finishing at 5th in the Metro! With all the turnover, I could see them sitting in that position early on in the season but not by the end. If only because I don't see TD tolerating retention and revenue losses so adjustments would be made.

Its perfectly reasonable
Tiers:
NYR/NJD
NYI/CAR/PHI
PIT/WSH

We may make the playoffs but barring something none of us predicted, another 1st or 2nd round easy out. Maybe the isles finally get us.

Metro used to be the toughest division but now it's just likely to be NJD/NYR with us looking in. Atlantic and the west gets tougher. FLA, Smashville, TBL, Boston, Leafs... The atlantic is the tougher division now.

 

[Borsig]

Things would have to really fall off for us to finish behind the isles and pitt.

I have news.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I have news.

Did aho lost for the season?

If not then I doubt you have news

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Pens didn’t fix anything this offseason. Their defense is going to have to do a 180 to give them a shot.

Islanders didn’t fix being old and slow. Duclair is just one depth guy.

Washington, while adding 2 defensive guys for really cheap, they added a lockeroom egnima who may drag the team down. Ovie is only getting older and more out of shape.

Devils success will depend on keeping the injury prone Hamilton and Hughes healthy (might include pesce in there too).

The Pens are crossing their fingers for McGroarty to give them a jolt, but I don't really see that as enough to push them into a playoff spot. Washington legitimately improved, bought extremely low on Chychrun, and are injecting youth in a bunch of places, but are simultaneously counting on a huge risk in that process by taking on the PLD enigma. I see Washington being the team that squeezes into one of the wild-card spots.

 

[cptjeff]

Pens didn’t fix anything this offseason. Their defense is going to have to do a 180 to give them a shot.

Islanders didn’t fix being old and slow. Duclair is just one depth guy.

Washington, while adding 2 defensive guys for really cheap, they added a lockeroom egnima who may drag the team down. Ovie is only getting older and more out of shape.

Devils success will depend on keeping the injury prone Hamilton and Hughes healthy (might include pesce in there too).

Yep, fully agree there.

NJD improved a lot on paper, but games aren't played on paper. It may take them time to integrate into a larger whole, and as you said, injuries can hurt them a lot. The Rangers are still an excellent team. The Canes might take a half step back, but we're still a clear tier above the rest of the division, and much closer to New Jersey and New York than we are to teams like the Isles. I think the top three in the division will be pretty hotly contested, any of NJD/NYR/CAR can win it, but I'd handicap those odds as NYR 45%, NJD 35%, CAR 20%.

 

[Stickpucker]

Agreeing with you makes me feel awkward and in need of a shower, yet here we are.

Plan the bromance

 

[DaveG]

Pens didn’t fix anything this offseason. Their defense is going to have to do a 180 to give them a shot.

Islanders didn’t fix being old and slow. Duclair is just one depth guy.

Washington, while adding 2 defensive guys for really cheap, they added a lockeroom egnima who may drag the team down. Ovie is only getting older and more out of shape.

Devils success will depend on keeping the injury prone Hamilton and Hughes healthy (might include pesce in there too).

yep, I still have us top 3 in the division rather comfortably at this point, though there may be some growing pains early in the season as Walker, Carrier, and the non-Ghost additions mix in without having familiarity with our system... so in other words basically your average early season Canes team.

Basically how I see it:
New Jersey - last year they disappointed due to injuries, defense, goaltending, and coaching. Can't really guarantee #1 is fixed but the other 3 are significantly better than they were last year. Playoffs and division contender.
Rangers - basically bringing back the same team as last year, virtual playoff lock and division contender
Carolina - possible early-season chemistry issues as new faces learn the system and having to replace the entire second pairing from last year will be issues, but team did a good job of replacing said players for that role. Virtual playoff lock, and if one of the young players is ready for prime time a division contender.

Islanders - can only go as far as their goaltending can carry them, which is still pretty far with that tandem. But they're an old team and their coach isn't exactly a great fit for the roster. Playoff contender.
Washington - came on hot at the end of last season and made some strong moves on the back end, but goaltending is still a mess and PLD is quite possibly the biggest locker room cancer in the league. Playoff contender but probably top out as one of the two wild cards.

Pittsburgh - team's already very old and getting older, their defense is a tire fire in its own end, and their best goalie is Ned. Would need a lot to go right to make the playoffs over the Isles and Caps, and would need EVERYTHING to go right to be in the top 3 in the division.

Philly - overachieved last season when they had Hart, and they didn't replace Hart. Team is rebuilding though so ownership and likely fans are fine with this outcome for one more season.
Columbus - middle of a rebuild with no real light at the end of the tunnel. May even try to bottom out a bit starting this season.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

yep, I still have us top 3 in the division rather comfortably at this point, though there may be some growing pains early in the season as Walker, Carrier, and the non-Ghost additions mix in without having familiarity with our system... so in other words basically your average early season Canes team.

Basically how I see it:
New Jersey - last year they disappointed due to injuries, defense, goaltending, and coaching. Can't really guarantee #1 is fixed but the other 3 are significantly better than they were last year. Playoffs and division contender.
Rangers - basically bringing back the same team as last year, virtual playoff lock and division contender
Carolina - possible early-season chemistry issues as new faces learn the system and having to replace the entire second pairing from last year will be issues, but team did a good job of replacing said players for that role. Virtual playoff lock, and if one of the young players is ready for prime time a division contender.

Islanders - can only go as far as their goaltending can carry them, which is still pretty far with that tandem. But they're an old team and their coach isn't exactly a great fit for the roster. Playoff contender.
Washington - came on hot at the end of last season and made some strong moves on the back end, but goaltending is still a mess and PLD is quite possibly the biggest locker room cancer in the league. Playoff contender but probably top out as one of the two wild cards.

Pittsburgh - team's already very old and getting older, their defense is a tire fire in its own end, and their best goalie is Ned. Would need a lot to go right to make the playoffs over the Isles and Caps, and would need EVERYTHING to go right to be in the top 3 in the division.

Philly - overachieved last season when they had Hart, and they didn't replace Hart. Team is rebuilding though so ownership and likely fans are fine with this outcome for one more season.
Columbus - middle of a rebuild with no real light at the end of the tunnel. May even try to bottom out a bit starting this season.

Pittsburgh got much younger with their depth pieces this year, especially if McGroarty makes the team. Their issue is that their core group is likely to retire en masse, almost at once, in ~3-4 seasons, meaning that Dubas going to have to hold onto as many high draft picks as possible in the next few years if he wants a quicker rebuild. That limits their ability to improve their roster outside of overpaying UFAs and cycling the dumpster bins and the waiver wire.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Pittsburgh got much younger with their depth pieces this year, especially if McGroarty makes the team. Their issue is that their core group is likely to retire en masse, almost at once, in ~3-4 seasons, meaning that Dubas going to have to hold onto as many high draft picks as possible in the next few years if he wants a quicker rebuild. That limits their ability to improve their roster outside of overpaying UFAs and cycling the dumpster bins and the waiver wire.

they are hoping that McGroarty and Bunting can replace Guentzel, which seems unlikely. We'll see what pono can do with a full season of games.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5720844/2024/08/26/carolina-hurricanes-training-camp-roster/

The Jesper Fast question is likely why the Jarvis extension hasn't been announced yet. They aren't sure if Fast is able to play this season or if he is LTIRetired. The roster moves will be made accordingly, but Lavalette confirms that Roslovic was essentially signed this offseason as both an injection of offense in the bottom-6 and as Fast insurance.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

yep, I still have us top 3 in the division rather comfortably at this point, though there may be some growing pains early in the season as Walker, Carrier, and the non-Ghost additions mix in without having familiarity with our system... so in other words basically your average early season Canes team.

Basically how I see it:
New Jersey - last year they disappointed due to injuries, defense, goaltending, and coaching. Can't really guarantee #1 is fixed but the other 3 are significantly better than they were last year. Playoffs and division contender.
Rangers - basically bringing back the same team as last year, virtual playoff lock and division contender
Carolina - possible early-season chemistry issues as new faces learn the system and having to replace the entire second pairing from last year will be issues, but team did a good job of replacing said players for that role. Virtual playoff lock, and if one of the young players is ready for prime time a division contender.

Islanders - can only go as far as their goaltending can carry them, which is still pretty far with that tandem. But they're an old team and their coach isn't exactly a great fit for the roster. Playoff contender.
Washington - came on hot at the end of last season and made some strong moves on the back end, but goaltending is still a mess and PLD is quite possibly the biggest locker room cancer in the league. Playoff contender but probably top out as one of the two wild cards.

Pittsburgh - team's already very old and getting older, their defense is a tire fire in its own end, and their best goalie is Ned. Would need a lot to go right to make the playoffs over the Isles and Caps, and would need EVERYTHING to go right to be in the top 3 in the division.

Philly - overachieved last season when they had Hart, and they didn't replace Hart. Team is rebuilding though so ownership and likely fans are fine with this outcome for one more season.
Columbus - middle of a rebuild with no real light at the end of the tunnel. May even try to bottom out a bit starting this season.

for me:

Its healthy NJ over NYR but that adjective is something that eluded NJ for 2 out of the past 3 seasons. Also, we are assuming Markstrom doesnt hit the age regression curve hard.

Healthy Devils 115 points
Rangers 114 points
Canes 104 points
Isles 98 points
pens 90 point
caps 88 points
Philly 85 points
Columbus 84 points

 

[DaveG]

Pittsburgh got much younger with their depth pieces this year, especially if McGroarty makes the team. Their issue is that their core group is likely to retire en masse, almost at once, in ~3-4 seasons, meaning that Dubas going to have to hold onto as many high draft picks as possible in the next few years if he wants a quicker rebuild. That limits their ability to improve their roster outside of overpaying UFAs and cycling the dumpster bins and the waiver wire.

yep, when I say it's an aging team I'm talking strictly about the core group. Washington has done a better job of dumpster diving to replenish their core group as Backstrom and Oshie had their injury woes the past few years. Though I still REALLY don't like the PLD pickup.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Jarvis is having fun with this contract negotiation.