Roster Building XXII: Too Many Forwards, Hopefully One Cup

[To Be Determined]

Dundon is now cash strapped.

to be fair, this is exactly how aho ended up playing for montreal when dundo couldn't afford the front-loaded bonuses.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I thought Servelli pointed out Dundon is actually paying MORE with this kind of contract, not less?

 

[Lempo]

The show-off.

 

[chaz4hockey]

I thought Servelli pointed out Dundon is actually paying MORE with this kind of contract, not less?

Yes, in that he is paying an interest rate on the deferred amounts.

Getting into the weeds, it may or may not be a bad deal for Dundon beyond cap savings.

He “wins” If his rate of return on money he defers is higher than the deferred interest rate amount to Jarvis (it’s what the Wilpons were banking on due to the inflated Madoff rates of return when they deferred Bonilla’s contract).

 

[WreckingCrew]

Dundon is now cash strapped.

What are the odds he is a still salty Habs fan?

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

What rubbish. Dundon has been very aggressive with signing bonuses this offseason. Per PuckPedia, $15.33 mil (presumably) already paid for 24-25 for this Summer’s signees and re-signees (excludes anything previously committed).

Slavin’s extension is Toronto-esque. ~84.36% in signing bonuses!

Anyone else and the narrative is an owner flexing their financial muscle to build the best team possible.

 

[NotOpie]

Dundon is now cash strapped.

I guess $3.5 billion just doesn't go as far as it used to......

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

"Dundon is cheap" is the new "Here's why Carolina should accept Staal for Colbourne, Grabovski a 2016 2nd" and "Future in Carolina uncertain?!" whereby hockey journalists can't be bothered to do their job when it comes to Hurricanes ie following the team to an extent to provide insightful commentary to the layman, and so fall back on ol' reliable for easy content.

I don't really mind it when randos on HFBoards repeat it because most people here don't follow other teams save when they're playing their favorite team, but it is annoying when someone who is paid for nominal insight into the National Hockey League regurgitates a narrative that isn't really true and was disproven half a decade ago with the Aho offer sheet/20 mil payday in a rolling year.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

The "Dundon is cheap" mantra from other fan bases doesn't bother me in the least. If he keeps spending and keeps winning, that's all I care about. Other fan bases or media personalities don't bother me.

 

[NotOpie]

The "Dundon is cheap" mantra from other fan bases doesn't bother me in the least. If he keeps spending and keeps winning, that's all I care about. Other fan bases or media personalities don't bother me.

It actually makes me laugh. I'm so over the misrepresentations....or more acurately misunderstandings of where he spends and where he doesn't. In the end, we ice a very good team year in and year out during his tenure.

 

[bleedgreen]

Meh. I haven’t seen a lot of that in the reactions on the boards here. Everyone is either giving us credit for creativity or annoyed at perceived circumvention. I didn’t see a lot of Dundon is cheap. Of course you’ll find some of that rhetoric on places like X or I assume Reddit but the noise seems quieter than it used to be imo.

You can only change perception so much. People who want to be ignorant are going to do it in the face of truth as long as they live. Old jokes aren’t going to go away for some people no matter what this team does.

 

[Chrispy]

Old jokes aren’t going to go away for some people no matter what this team does.

And like playing with Chad today, that’s a good thing.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

Now that the offseason business is basically complete, we can look back at the offseason as a whole. We started out in fearmongering mode, knowing that we would lose a lot of UFAs. The worst fears were pretty much realized. We lost *all* of the UFAs except Chatfield and Martinook. Those two took market deals, or a little under market deals, and we lost Guentzel, Pesce, Skjei, Teuvo, and Noesen.

We were hopeful we could get at least a couple of those guys as well, particularly since we free up space by not re-signing Guentzel. Alas, we could not, and our depth is way worse going into 2024-2025. We almost certainly will take a step back this year, at least in the regular season.

What gives me optimism is that the team clearly prioritized long-term success. The riskiest UFA contract we signed was William Carrier. The 6 year term is scary, but the $2M caphit is very manageable. Had we re-signed Guentzel, Pesce, or Skjei, we would be dealing with much riskier back halves of those deals.

We stabilized the defense with Ghost and Walker, both of him are at best #3s, but at worst #5 defensemen. We both keep a pretty great defense next year (to be fair, not elite like last year) while also keeping room for Nikishin and Morrow to join in the next few years. So our D appears to be set for like the next 5 years.

Forwards wise, we take the biggest step back. We just aren't going to replace Guentzel's post-deadline scoring. We will rely on Necas and Svechnikov to be top line players. We will rely on Kotkaniemi or Drury to be a 2C. Huge question marks, honestly, but both are possible. I'd imagine one rookie will make the team in a bottom 6 capacity. Probably a good year to work in a youngster.

The best news is that our cap situation is very rosy after this year. We all knew 2024 offseason was going to be a reckoning. It was. 2025 offseason mostly frees up cap for players we don't need or who will take reduced salaries if they re-up with us. We look to have $24M in capspace next year and will need to sign a goalie, some forwards depth, and possibly re-up Orlov/Burns. But even on D, we may just go with Morrow and Nikishin. We definitely have big game hunting potential after this year. In 2026, the biggest decision will be paying Necas or moving on, and also re-upping Nikishin if he signs a 2 year pact after the trade deadline this year. We won't have another 2024 offseason for a while. And if we do, say in 2026 or 2027, that just means our young players like Nikishin, Morrow, Nadeau, Blake, etc, have broken out as legit top players, which is a good thing.

Most contenders don't have good prospects like we do. And if they do, most of them have perilous long-term cap outlooks. Our 2024 offseason still kinda sucks, but it's possible we look back gladly in a couple of years, and are thankful for the Borg's prudent patience.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Now that the offseason business is basically complete, we can look back at the offseason as a whole. We started out in fearmongering mode, knowing that we would lose a lot of UFAs. The worst fears were pretty much realized. We lost *all* of the UFAs except Chatfield and Martinook. Those two took market deals, or a little under market deals, and we lost Guentzel, Pesce, Skjei, Teuvo, and Noesen.

We were hopeful we could get at least a couple of those guys as well, particularly since we free up space by not re-signing Guentzel. Alas, we could not, and our depth is way worse going into 2024-2025. We almost certainly will take a step back this year, at least in the regular season.

What gives me optimism is that the team clearly prioritized long-term success. The riskiest UFA contract we signed was William Carrier. The 6 year term is scary, but the $2M caphit is very manageable. Had we re-signed Guentzel, Pesce, or Skjei, we would be dealing with much riskier back halves of those deals.

We stabilized the defense with Ghost and Walker, both of him are at best #3s, but at worst #5 defensemen. We both keep a pretty great defense next year (to be fair, not elite like last year) while also keeping room for Nikishin and Morrow to join in the next few years. So our D appears to be set for like the next 5 years.

Forwards wise, we take the biggest step back. We just aren't going to replace Guentzel's post-deadline scoring. We will rely on Necas and Svechnikov to be top line players. We will rely on Kotkaniemi or Drury to be a 2C. Huge question marks, honestly, but both are possible. I'd imagine one rookie will make the team in a bottom 6 capacity. Probably a good year to work in a youngster.

The best news is that our cap situation is very rosy after this year. We all knew 2024 offseason was going to be a reckoning. It was. 2025 offseason mostly frees up cap for players we don't need or who will take reduced salaries if they re-up with us. We look to have $24M in capspace next year and will need to sign a goalie, some forwards depth, and possibly re-up Orlov/Burns. But even on D, we may just go with Morrow and Nikishin. We definitely have big game hunting potential after this year. In 2026, the biggest decision will be paying Necas or moving on, and also re-upping Nikishin if he signs a 2 year pact after the trade deadline this year. We won't have another 2024 offseason for a while. And if we do, say in 2026 or 2027, that just means our young players like Nikishin, Morrow, Nadeau, Blake, etc, have broken out as legit top players, which is a good thing.

Most contenders don't have good prospects like we do. And if they do, most of them have perilous long-term cap outlooks. Our 2024 offseason still kinda sucks, but it's possible we look back gladly in a couple of years, and are thankful for the Borg's prudent patience.

This offseason was somewhat of a reckoning, but I thought they did incredibly well. The only true problem with Carolina's offseason was Guentzel, and there wasn't much that they could do about a player choosing a different destination with equivalent offers. I also would've tried harder to go longer on the Necas extension, but he was rumored to be disgruntled about his present usage and a 2 year keep directly to UFA was probably the best that they could do in a tenuous situation. I see either Necas having a great season and the Canes extending him, or the Canes finding a trade match for him next offseason. For the elements that were in their control, I think Carolina nailed most of their evaluations. Most contending teams, in response to significant UFAs, will potentially overpay to keep depth guys currently on their team. The Canes didn't do that, and instead went for multiple potential value-added swings on undervalued players.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'm going to disagree a bit on the analysis above that says the forward took the biggest step back. This team was a top 3 team in the NHL for two years running without Guentzel at the trade deadline and without a high scoring offense. It wasn't how we played. It would have been nice to keep him, but to say it's a big step back is ignoring how the team played before he got here.

From Oct 2022 through march 12, 2024 (last game before Guentzel), the Canes had the 2nd best Points % in the NHL at .670. While the GF was 12th best, that's not been the Canes calling card. Defense has as the Canes were 3rd best in GA over that stretch as well as the 2nd best PK% (best Net PK%). Secondly, we all thought Necas was gone if we signed Guentzel, and we ended up keeping him.

TT will be a loss for sure at forward as I think we'll miss his versatility. Noesen is easily replaceable IMO as he only played 10min/game at ES against the weakest competition. That said, Svech and Necas (and KK) all had subpar years last year. It's conceivable that the three of them, along with Roslovic or a rookie could make up for it.

Since our calling card has been defense, I think the loss of Skjei and Pesce might be a bigger impact for a few reasons. First, Skjei and Pesce took on the toughest assignments, not Slavin/Burns. Ghost/Walker certainly aren't at that level defensively. Second, defensemen take time to adapt to our system, so even though Ghost was here for a short period, I won't be surprised if he and Walker struggle some. Skjei and Pesce had great chemistry together. The flip side is Orlov and Chat won't have to go through that now. Third, Skjei is 6'3", 210 and Pesce is 6'3" 206. Walker is 5'11" 191 and Ghost is 5'11" 183. While size isn't everything, it does matter some, especially for defensemen. Lastly, If Burns and Slavin have to take on more of the tough assignments, what impact will that have on their play at their ages.

There are a lot of questions for the team for sure, but I won't be surprised if they take a step back, or if they don't take a step back.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I'm going to disagree a bit on the analysis above that says the forward took the biggest step back. This team was a top 3 team in the NHL for two years running without Guentzel at the trade deadline and without a high scoring offense. It wasn't how we played. It would have been nice to keep him, but to say it's a big step back is ignoring how the team played before he got here.

From Oct 2022 through march 12, 2024 (last game before Guentzel), the Canes had the 2nd best Points % in the NHL at .670. While the GF was 12th best, that's not been the Canes calling card. Defense has as the Canes were 3rd best in GA over that stretch as well as the 2nd best PK% (best Net PK%). Secondly, we all thought Necas was gone if we signed Guentzel, and we ended up keeping him.

TT will be a loss for sure at forward as I think we'll miss his versatility. Noesen is easily replaceable IMO as he only played 10min/game at ES against the weakest competition. That said, Svech and Necas (and KK) all had subpar years last year. It's conceivable that the three of them, along with Roslovic or a rookie could make up for it.

Since our calling card has been defense, I think the loss of Skjei and Pesce might be a bigger impact for a few reasons. First, Skjei and Pesce took on the toughest assignments, not Slavin/Burns. Ghost/Walker certainly aren't at that level defensively. Second, defensemen take time to adapt to our system, so even though Ghost was here for a short period, I won't be surprised if he and Walker struggle some. Skjei and Pesce had great chemistry together. The flip side is Orlov and Chat won't have to go through that now. Third, Skjei is 6'3", 210 and Pesce is 6'3" 206. Walker is 5'11" 191 and Ghost is 5'11" 183. While size isn't everything, it does matter some, especially for defensemen. Lastly, If Burns and Slavin have to take on more of the tough assignments, what impact will that have on their play at their ages.

There are a lot of questions for the team for sure, but I won't be surprised if they take a step back, or if they don't take a step back.

Sean Walker is the biggest wild card, as far as our UFA signings are concerned. Ghost could take a lot of pressure off of Burns if he can successfully take over PP1 duties, but Walker panning out would answer the question on who would take over Pesce's even-strength minutes. We know from Orlov's past that he can handle Skjei's usage, so I'm not worried about Skjei's move to Nashville all that much.

Also, I think Orlov-Walker is the eventual 2nd pairing once Walker adjusts to man-on-man. Walker is solid defensively for an offensive defenseman, but Gostisbehere is more effective at even-strength with a pure defensive guy like Chatfield.

 

[chaz4hockey]

I'm going to disagree a bit on the analysis above that says the forward took the biggest step back. This team was a top 3 team in the NHL for two years running without Guentzel at the trade deadline and without a high scoring offense. It wasn't how we played. It would have been nice to keep him, but to say it's a big step back is ignoring how the team played before he got here.

From Oct 2022 through march 12, 2024 (last game before Guentzel), the Canes had the 2nd best Points % in the NHL at .670. While the GF was 12th best, that's not been the Canes calling card. Defense has as the Canes were 3rd best in GA over that stretch as well as the 2nd best PK% (best Net PK%). Secondly, we all thought Necas was gone if we signed Guentzel, and we ended up keeping him.

TT will be a loss for sure at forward as I think we'll miss his versatility. Noesen is easily replaceable IMO as he only played 10min/game at ES against the weakest competition. That said, Svech and Necas (and KK) all had subpar years last year. It's conceivable that the three of them, along with Roslovic or a rookie could make up for it.

Since our calling card has been defense, I think the loss of Skjei and Pesce might be a bigger impact for a few reasons. First, Skjei and Pesce took on the toughest assignments, not Slavin/Burns. Ghost/Walker certainly aren't at that level defensively. Second, defensemen take time to adapt to our system, so even though Ghost was here for a short period, I won't be surprised if he and Walker struggle some. Skjei and Pesce had great chemistry together. The flip side is Orlov and Chat won't have to go through that now. Third, Skjei is 6'3", 210 and Pesce is 6'3" 206. Walker is 5'11" 191 and Ghost is 5'11" 183. While size isn't everything, it does matter some, especially for defensemen. Lastly, If Burns and Slavin have to take on more of the tough assignments, what impact will that have on their play at their ages.

There are a lot of questions for the team for sure, but I won't be surprised if they take a step back, or if they don't take a step back.

As you say, our D play will be interesting.

Although typically not very physical Skjei/Pesce’s wingspan made operating in the O zone more difficult for opponents. Skjei’s offensive contributions were important too.

OTH, x Slavin-Burns we are running with smaller pairs. However, I optimistically believe Walker will offset his smaller size with more physical play than we have typically seen. I’d add that his outstanding speed will benefit the Canes both defensively and offensively and his speed is superior to what Skjei & Pesce offered.

Interesting times.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Sean Walker is the biggest wild card, as far as our UFA signings are concerned. Ghost could take a lot of pressure off of Burns if he can successfully take over PP1 duties, but Walker panning out would answer the question on who would take over Pesce's even-strength minutes. We know from Orlov's past that he can handle Skjei's usage, so I'm not worried about Skjei's move to Nashville all that much.

Maybe / Maybe not for a few reasons.
1) While he did have that role at times in WSH, he didn't consistently take on "Skjei's usage". Skjei/Pesce have taken on that for the last 3-4 years consistently. Orlov has done it from time to time, I agree with that, just that Pesce/Skjei have done it regularly for the last 3-4 years.

2) It isn't just about the role, it's the chemistry. Skjei and Pesce built that up over time and even if Orlov's been on the team for a year, having that chemistry in a role is key.

3) Orlov performed that role in a different system at WSH.

Orlov very well could fill that Skjei role, it's certainly why the Canes signed him to the deal they did, it's just not a given. I agree with you about Walker being the wildcard as well as Ghost taking some minutes from Burns on the PP though.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

A little thing to bring up is the 2025 UFA class. There's a ton of possibilities here with our cap space, but the name that I would be most interested in is Mitch Marner, especially if the Canes and the Necas camp are still at odds next season. I could easily see a situation where the Canes find Necas a new team via trade and then make their big top-6 splash with Marner. There are also several excellent OGWAC names next season if the Canes successfully mend the Necas situation and/or don't want to commit massive dollars long-term, namely Giroux, Nelson, Tavares, Duchene, Benn, and Nyquist.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

As you say, our D play will be interesting.

Although typically not very physical Skjei/Pesce’s wingspan made operating in the O zone more difficult for opponents. Skjei’s offensive contributions were important too.

While not physical in the sense of big checks, both of them used their size along the board and in front of the net to win battles. Pesce was incredible at taking the right angle and using his body to separate a guy from the puck without laying a hit, but being big enough and strong enough to come away with the puck.

Your point about wingspan is a good one as well.

OTH, x Slavin-Burns we are running with smaller pairs. However, I optimistically believe Walker will offset his smaller size with more physical play than we have typically seen. I’d add that his outstanding speed will benefit the Canes both defensively and offensively and his speed is superior to what Skjei & Pesce offered.

Interesting times.

Very well could turn out that way. As I mentioned above, how Skjei and Pesce used their size was less about what is typically viewed as "physical" .

Secondly, Walker has only average > 19 minutes/game 1 time in his NHL career, where as Skjei and Pesce have pretty much been minute eaters playing 21-22 min/game season after season.

It could work out just fine so I'm not counting that out, just a lot of things need to go right. We've been blessed with an outstanding and deep Defense for most of the last 6 seasons.

Like you said, interesting times.

 

[spockBokk]

If you watch highlights of Walker, you'll notice he really, really likes to jump up in the rush. Most, if not all of his goals last year were scored off of him rushing the puck up on his own, or joining the rush as the late guy. I think someone made the point soon after Gostisbehere and Walker were signed that this coming year's version of the blue line "should" be more offensively-oriented than the past years' units. I agree with that, they'll have to be in order to be successful in my opinion.

If it were even possible,I think they're going to have to play more of a possession based game than in year's past. They're not built to play against sustained forechecks anymore, if they ever were. Teams who have big forwards willing to muck it up on the boards are going to be an issue this season I think.

On the flip side, I think they'll be one of the more dangerous teams off the rush this year. They kinda started to move in that direction after acquiring Guentzel last year. Adding 2 more smallish D who can really skate and also move the puck pretty much necessitates them having that sort of style. Roslovic also seems like a guy that can really skate and excel in that area.

I still think they're at least 1 top 6 forward short, but I'm expecting a team this year that's fun to watch offensively and also infuriating to watch when it comes to them having to play against teams like Florida, with those big forwards who are going to cause the Canes' new-look D fits.

 

[AD Skinner]

All I know is Ghost- Walker would be the most badassed named pair in the league

 

[Tryamw]

All I know is Ghost- Walker would be the most badassed named pair in the league

What about Walker Ghost? Former Texas Ranger.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

going a long with was has said here so far, out look seems that we want to get faster and move and keep the puck more.

Defense won’t be as stingy with keeping the puck out. But we may see similar goal differential numbers because the defense is creating more or we could see similar goals against because we own the puck.

 

[AD Skinner]

Ghost Burns would be pretty badass too name wise but I don’t think they’ll likely play together. I think they likely settle into

Slavin Burns
Orlov Ghost
Walker Chatfield

Maybe flipping walker and ghost depending on the situation