Roster Building XXI: It Gon' Go Down.

[cptjeff]

Going ahead and starting the new thread since stuff's about to get moving in a serious way. Continue stabbing each other over a million dollar difference in what we should offer Guentzel and exactly how much Necas is worth in a trade.

Click to read more...

 

[Chrispy]

 

[NotOpie]

Ron Francis drafted Necas, so there's always that.

Necas isn't getting traded until the organization either signs Guentzel or has a replacement for one or the other. Given that, I don't think a futures trade is in the future.....yet.

 

[cptjeff]

Ron Francis drafted Necas, so there's always that.

Necas isn't getting traded until the organization either signs Guentzel or has a replacement for one or the other. Given that, I don't think a futures trade is in the future.....yet.

I think the org views it as addition by subtraction and he's gone regardless, especially with the money he's demanding. If you can trade him with an extension lined up, you maximize the value you'll ever get out of him.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

Trade Orlov.

 

[Wolfpuck]

Regarding Jake, I still think that 8th year is our ace in the hole. Come on Eric. F*** the algorithm. You know you want to do it.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

until the draft where FO personnel are near agents again to discuss numbers, we likely wont here much on many FAs. Jake will probably learn of the numbers he will get on July 1st around that time.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

I wouldn't mind Guentzel back. I'm also not sold he's the guy you break the mold for (no rich long term UFA deals, esp to guys in their late 20s/30s), nor is he a guy I'd lament in hindsight if time shows the opportunity cost of not signing him went to nothing tangibly better.

I'll be happy if he's back, I also won't join the riot when he signs with Vancouver

Although saying that, I also think the front office overestimates how hard it is to make bad contracts go away

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I’m not afraid of a Necas offer sheet because I think we match at the 1+3 price range and we let him go at the 1+2+3 price range and are more or less “helped” either way.

 

[TheBigLetowski]

Sucks the draft is the day before UFA day. I guess Canes wait to see if they can get a possible JG replacement via trade that night. If not, they make their last stand that night? Interesting final week.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Sucks the draft is the day before UFA day. I guess Canes wait to see if they can get a possible JG replacement via trade that night. If not, they make their last stand that night? Interesting final week.

Isn't the draft Friday and UFA Monday? Still not a great length of time but not that compressed.

 

[Lempo]

Sucks the draft is the day before UFA day.

The Draft is June 28-29, the Free Agency is July 1. I mean, June 30 is not much, but it is a day.

 

[Wolfpuck]

The Draft is June 28-29, the Free Agency is July 1. I mean, June 30 is not much, but it is a day.

#IBelieveInJune30th

 

[spockBokk]

Around an 1hr and 8mins in - Seravalli speculates the Canes’ offer to Guentzel is just under $8M x 8

https://x.com/i/web/status/1804220540384854270

Also, he doesn’t name the Canucks as favorites, but sure does mention a lot of things that Guentzel may “like” about Vancouver. Says they’ll need to offer around $9.5M x 7 to match Canes offer. Mentions that he doesn’t think the Canucks need to worry about giving up a pick to negotiate early.

I dunno, personally, were I the Canes mgmt team if all it took was a couple hundred more thousand to re-up Guentzel with that 8th year, I just do it.

Sure sounds like he’s Vancouver-bound regardless

 

[Blueline Bomber]

The only way it's OK to lose Guentzel is if we have a replacement of equal or better talent lined up. If we don't, then we're letting talented players walk for no reason.

 

[CandyCanes]

Around an 1hr and 8mins in - Seravalli speculates the Canes’ offer to Guentzel is just under $8M x 8

https://x.com/i/web/status/1804220540384854270

Also, he doesn’t name the Canucks as favorites, but sure does mention a lot of things that Guentzel may “like” about Vancouver. Says they’ll need to offer around $9.5M x 7 to match Canes offer. Mentions that he doesn’t think the Canucks need to worry about giving up a pick to negotiate early.

I dunno, personally, were I the Canes mgmt team if all it took was a couple hundred more thousand to re-up Guentzel with that 8th year, I just do it.

Sure sounds like he’s Vancouver-bound regardless

I imagine the Canes would be down for a number in the 8’s x 8 for Guentzel, but won’t give that offer until the day before free agency.

 

[Unsustainable]

I imagine the Canes would be down for a number in the 8’s x 8 for Guentzel, but won’t give that offer until the day before free agency.

8.5x8 (68m) would put the earnings over 7x9.5. (66.5m)

Also taxes and cost of living is cheaper here...

Load the 1st 6 season with bonuses and NMC, and last 2 season with low pay and NTC

 

[cptjeff]

8.5x8 (68m) would put the earnings over 7x9.5. (66.5m)

Also taxes and cost of living is cheaper here...

Load the 1st 6 season with bonuses and NMC, and last 2 season with low pay and NTC

He's playing year 8 regardless and will still be making well more than 1.5m that year. Please stop. When comparing earnings you cannot just compare the total contract values without accounting for what the contract is likely to be over the additional years the longer contract is buying. It does not and never has worked that way.

 

[Unsustainable]

He's playing year 8 regardless and will still be making well more than 1.5m that year. Please stop. When comparing earnings you cannot just compare the total contract values without accounting for what the contract is likely to be over the additional years the longer contract is buying. It does not and never has worked that way.

If the 8th year doesn't buy you a lower AAV for the life of the contract, then what is the advantage of having the 8th year option vs the UFA 7 year option?

He would be 37 at the end of a UFA contract or 38 at the end of ours, that last year of contract is guaranteed pay he might not get.

 

[SvechneJerk]

 

[cptjeff]

If the 8th year doesn't buy you a lower AAV for the life of the contract, then what is the advantage of having the 8th year option vs the UFA 7 year option?

He would be 37 at the end of a UFA contract or 38 at the end of ours, that last year of contract is guaranteed pay he might not get.

Stability and predictability. It's one more year of pay you're 100% sure you'll get. For some players that matters a lot. But it rarely matters much at all to a player. It's intended more as a team benefit so teams can lock up the guys their fans are attached to longer.

For a guy like Guentzel who's near certainly going to be playing at 37 because he's not a guy who plays an injury prone style, it's simply not going to buy you that much of a reduced AAV. 95% odds of playing at that age for $3-4m means you need to buy that 8th year for 95% of the contract he would expect to get in year 8 to match the same expected value.

To make the point a little more aggressively, if you offer $40m over 4 years, would you consider that to be an equivalent deal to $40m over 8 years? Of course not. But that's the exact same logic you're trying to use here.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Ty smith is an emergency only defender option.

64 million is more than enough for Guentzel. 7.85 x 8 is just right.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

The reason why Carolina doesn't feel like it needs to play desperate for Guentzel is precisely because we're in a great position as far as our team's stability and overall success is concerned. Even if Guentzel ultimately chooses Vancouver (honestly, as much as I don't personally like it, it's a lot better than an Eastern team!), there will be tons of good players in UFA who will want to play for us.

 

[Tryamw]

Going ahead and starting the new thread since stuff's about to get moving in a serious way. Continue stabbing each other over a million dollar difference in what we should offer Guentzel and exactly how much Necas is worth in a trade.

We should offer each 20 million a season.
Best way to proceed

 

[Tryamw]

#IBelieveInJune30th

It's the day after my birthday pretty sure it's fake