Speculation: Roster Building Thread XXXVIII:

[Leetch3]

 

[NYSPORTS]

but Igor says . . . something about a 24 team playoff soon.

 

[egelband]

*
Valeri Nichushkin - 8 years x 14M

It was 14 years x $8m I think

 

[Edge]

Gotta lol at that Strome projection. They usually have a breakdown of what a contract may look like on a 1yr, 2yr, etc., basis, but this seems insane for an 8 year deal. The Tony contract would be a steal

Yeah, that Strome contract ain't happening.

And if a rift in the space-time continuum should cause it to happen, and someone wants to offer that contract to Strome, the Rangers will gladly trade his rights to the team willing to go there. But it sure as hell won't be Jeff Gorton putting that on the table.

 

[Fugazy]

They lost me at Strome 8 X 7.615 MM

That’s just something that can never happen.

 

[RGY]

but Igor says . . . something about a 24 team playoff soon.

Never said it was soon clown. Just said it was something that was being discussed as a contingency plan. Others have reported this. You got something against Igor Eronko? Or just something against NHL talk in general? Maybe you should sign up for another board.

 

[Barnaby]

24 team would be interesting... Igor might be able to help us steal a round or two if he gets hot... and they can avoid Boston. I’m obviously not expecting a cup but I can see them having a bit of a run which would be great for their development.

 

[aufheben]

The problem with the Strome projection is probably their model not accounting for him riding shotgun to Panarin.

 

[Barnaby]

The problem with the Strome projection is probably their model not accounting for him riding shotgun to Panarin.

Or his lack of consistency from season to season...

... and I say that as someone who would gladly take him on a 3 and maybe 4 year deal.

I guess they must use some formula based on age and single season success.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

7.6m/8y is an absolutely cripplingly ridiculous contract. There should be no way Strome should get close to that money and term.

 

[haohmaru]

Strome for what for how long?

ROTFL

 

[wafflepadsave]

It was 14 years x $8m I think

I’ll take the picks.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

I think the Strome number is way out of line like most have said. The ADA number is right to me, but I'd round to $6MM AAV. Fast number is about 250K higher then I'd like but the term is good. I honestly dont think Lemieux gets more than $1MM AAV.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I think Luker just posted the least likely projection for Strome in order to make his case to replace Strome. Seems pretty disingenuous when no one in their right mind would believe that any GM will give him an 8 year deal.

I'm not sure who Luker is outside of that tweet, but I think you may be correct. I highly doubt that EW has Strome getting an 8-year deal as the most likely option. If anyone is a Patreon for them, I'd be curious to see how they project him on a 2 year deal. I'd imagine that it's somewhere in the $4.9-5.6M aav ballpark, which is what I'm expecting the Rangers to do if they choose to keep Strome.

Yeah, that Strome contract ain't happening.

And if a rift in the space-time continuum should cause it to happen, and someone wants to offer that contract to Strome, the Rangers will gladly trade his rights to the team willing to go there. But it sure as hell won't be Jeff Gorton putting that on the table.

Regardless of if you like or dislike Strome, I think we can all agree that an 8-year deal isn't happening. It just doesn't make any sense to have Strome locked in at that high of a hit when there are much more important players up for contracts in the next few years. Gorton isn't going to let Ryan Strome interfere with re-signing Chytil, Fox, Kakko, and Zibanejad.

 

[Vitto79]

I'm not sure who Luker is outside of that tweet, but I think you may be correct. I highly doubt that EW has Strome getting an 8-year deal as the most likely option. If anyone is a Patreon for them, I'd be curious to see how they project him on a 2 year deal. I'd imagine that it's somewhere in the $4.9-5.6M aav ballpark, which is what I'm expecting the Rangers to do if they choose to keep Strome.



Regardless of if you like or dislike Strome, I think we can all agree that an 8-year deal isn't happening. It just doesn't make any sense to have Strome locked in at that high of a hit when there are much more important players up for contracts in the next few years. Gorton isn't going to let Ryan Strome interfere with re-signing Chytil, Fox, Kakko, and Zibanejad.

Yea no way .. I prefer 2 yrs but bet he gets 3

 

[True Blue]

They lost me at Strome 8 X 7.615 MM

That contract and I would also no give Fast $3m per.

 

[True Blue]

I prefer 2 yrs but bet he gets 3

For Strome, and I certainly have no insider knowledge, I think that you are probably looking at an extension of 2-4 years, with right around $5m per.

 

[EpicDing]

I'm sorry, but something like this is why people don't trust advanced stats (not saying I don't). That Strome projection is so far detached from reality that it's hilarious.

 

[aufheben]

I'm sorry, but something like this is why people don't trust advanced stats (not saying I don't). That Strome projection is so far detached from reality that it's hilarious.

If Strome was producing all on his own that number wouldn’t seem as crazy. On pace for 70 points at 26-years-old, plays PP and PK.

I don’t know if it’s that high because of the term or because the model doesn’t account for Panarin.

 

[EpicDing]

If Strome was producing all on his own that number wouldn’t seem as crazy. On pace for 70 points at 26-years-old, plays PP and PK.

I don’t know if it’s that high because of the term or because the model doesn’t account for Panarin.

Yeah for sure. But it seems the model doesn't take history into account either, players aren't paid like that based on a single good year. I just don't know how they could look at that and go "Yep, seems reasonable. Let's tweet this out" outside of doing it for completion's sake.

 

[Fitzy]

That contract and I would also no give Fast $3m per.

I feel like some team would.

That said, alll these contracts could be changed if the cap number ends up dropping.

 

[aufheben]

Yeah for sure. But it seems the model doesn't take history into account either, players aren't paid like that based on a single good year. I just don't know how they could look at that and go "Yep, seems reasonable. Let's tweet this out" outside of doing it for completion's sake.

Live by the sword. You can’t filter the work by outliers. Maybe 9/10 of those projections are dead on and Strome’s is wildly inaccurate.

He’s also a weird case because this will be his fourth NHL contract but he’s still a RFA. Tough to find comparisons. Jake Guentzel got a $30M deal after one good season playing with Crosby. William Karlsson got an 8-year $47M deal at the same age after one good season with Vegas. He’s already had two 2-year deals, is he going to take a third consecutive one?

 

[EpicDing]

Live by the sword. You can’t filter the work by outliers. Maybe 9/10 of those projections are dead on and Strome’s is wildly inaccurate.

He’s also a weird case because this will be his fourth NHL contract but he’s still a RFA. Tough to find comparisons. Jake Guentzel got a $30M deal after one good season playing with Crosby. William Karlsson got an 8-year $47M deal at the same age after one good season with Vegas. He’s already had two 2-year deals, is he going to take a third consecutive one?

Yep, all good points and I can definitely make the distinction. All I'm saying is it'll be difficult to bring these kinds of stats to the casual fan when it spits out results like that. People will immediately dismiss the rest of what they have to say. Model needs some refining.

 

[True Blue]

I feel like some team would.

Fast is an excellent 3rd/4th line player. But That salary is a good deal of money for not that much of a production. If you were to tell me $2.5, then yeah, I probably do it.

 

[True Blue]

Yeah for sure. But it seems the model doesn't take history into account either, players aren't paid like that based on a single good year. I just don't know how they could look at that and go "Yep, seems reasonable. Let's tweet this out" outside of doing it for completion's sake.

In all fairness, he has basically been producing like that since he donned the sweater. But yes, in this particular case. much as I believe that Strome has value, it is not worth that much.