Speculation: Roster Building Thread XXXVIII:

[UnSandvich]

Would think this is like a play-in kind of deal?

Math for that is kinda funky. I think it'd need to be a seeded, conference sorted 16 team play-in round, with the Top 4 in each conference getting a bye to the 2nd round?

So 24 teams start, minus 8 byes. 4 winners in the play-in round then meet the 4 bye teams, and playoffs go from there?

 

[bl02]

Lottery among the teams knocked out in the first round.

That is pretty interesting. Imagine if a team like Detroit or Ottawa won a round by some miracle? They no longer qualify for the lottery.

 

[RGY]

That is pretty interesting. Imagine if a team like Detroit or Ottawa won a round by some miracle? They no longer qualify for the lottery.

Well this wouldnt be possible since they would not be 1 of the 24 teams to qualify.

 

[bl02]

Well this wouldnt be possible since they would not be 1 of the 24 teams to qualify.

I was referring to the earlier post made by Crease about all teams getting into a 31 team playoff.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

Pretty certain he meant we’d have to add one of them on top of our picks - not all of them lol...

Pretty certain he did mean all three. He wouldn't have written "and" in your case.

 

[wafflepadsave]

Pipe dream, but a 31 team playoff would be fun.

Not to mention that they could use the revenue.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Are you serious? I'd get that package for 1st-2nd overall ... even then a ridiculous offer, imo. Waaay too much.

Teams aren't trading out of the top-5 in exchange for 2 picks outside the top-10 unless there are significant pieces coming their way with those picks.

This year, the top-5 is better than ever

 

[Mac n Gs]

Gotta lol at that Strome projection. They usually have a breakdown of what a contract may look like on a 1yr, 2yr, etc., basis, but this seems insane for an 8 year deal. The Tony contract would be a steal

 

[UnSandvich]

Gotta lol at that Strome projection. They usually have a breakdown of what a contract may look like on a 1yr, 2yr, etc., basis, but this seems insane for an 8 year deal. The Tony contract would be a steal

7.6x8 years? Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck no

 

[True Blue]

Gotta lol at that Strome projection. They usually have a breakdown of what a contract may look like on a 1yr, 2yr, etc., basis, but this seems insane for an 8 year deal. The Tony contract would be a steal

I have been a proponent of Strome, but there is no way he should be getting a contract like that And I cannot see Gorton & JD giving him one that comes close to resembling that.

 

[Fitzy]

Gotta lol at that Strome projection. They usually have a breakdown of what a contract may look like on a 1yr, 2yr, etc., basis, but this seems insane for an 8 year deal. The Tony contract would be a steal

Yeah, the others look right, but that Strome one is way off.

If NYR were silly enough to offer 8 years (Reminder than I'm a Strome fan) Ryan's camp would probably jump at like a 4.3 AAV.

2 x 5.5 is much more realistic. 1x5.7 in arbitration, maybe.

 

[Leetch3]

Gotta lol at that Strome projection. They usually have a breakdown of what a contract may look like on a 1yr, 2yr, etc., basis, but this seems insane for an 8 year deal. The Tony contract would be a steal

as bad as the strome one is...i'd signed deangelo, lemieux and PDG to those deals right now.

 

[Tawnos]

Gotta lol at that Strome projection. They usually have a breakdown of what a contract may look like on a 1yr, 2yr, etc., basis, but this seems insane for an 8 year deal. The Tony contract would be a steal

I feel like I read that post and interpreted it as "don't bother trusting any of EvolvingWild's projections about contracts"

 

[SA16]

Gotta lol at that Strome projection. They usually have a breakdown of what a contract may look like on a 1yr, 2yr, etc., basis, but this seems insane for an 8 year deal. The Tony contract would be a steal

*
Valeri Nichushkin - 8 years x 14M

 

[East Coast Bias]

Gotta lol at that Strome projection. They usually have a breakdown of what a contract may look like on a 1yr, 2yr, etc., basis, but this seems insane for an 8 year deal. The Tony contract would be a steal

coulda switched the Strome and Tony D projections and i would have thought it was closer to realistic.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I feel like I read that post and interpreted it as "don't bother trusting any of EvolvingWild's projections about contracts"

They had a good track record last year, and these projections are only what they list as the most probable based on term and AAV. For patreons, they also have projections for all terms ranging from 1-8 years, and I'd guess that Strome probably comes in somewhere at 2 x $5.5MAAV. Here's their correlation from last years contracts:

 

[SA16]

They had a good track record last year, and these projections are only what they list as the most probable based on term and AAV. For patreons, they also have projections for all terms ranging from 1-8 years, and I'd guess that Strome probably comes in somewhere at 2 x $5.5MAAV. Here's their correlation from last years contracts:

It should be noted if you simply take 18-19 AAVs there is a R^2 of 0.58 to 19-20 AAVs in the first place (among players who signed between 7/1-7/8 for 2M+ not coming off an ELC). If you remove the three guys with the biggest change (Panarin/Lee/Lehner [who are all guys we already knew the 18-19 salary wouldn't be similar to the 19-29 salary] you get a correlation of 0.693 purely by looking at the year prior. I feel like it's hard NOT to get a high correlation on this like I could probably hand make projected salaries and come out with a R^2 over .75 easily. So I definitely take issue with the whole "this is bananas" phrase from Tierney as I would be shocked if the correlation wasn't this high. Not to mention if I included all the salaries under 2M the correlation would go up because there is not much variability in 4th liner salaries I just left it out for time. Obviously that variance would go up adding in RFAs off ELCs though but you can again just base that off comparable if you're doing it manually. I guess long story short...this doesn't exactly impress me.

 

[aufheben]

I see someone posted EvolvingWild’s new contract projection tool and Strome’s billion dollar deal lol

 

[Rongomania]

7.6x8 years? Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck no

Just. This.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I see someone posted EvolvingWild’s new contract projection tool and Strome’s billion dollar deal lol

I regret it already!

 

[leetch99]

I highly doubt the league will penalize a few poor teams for missing the playoffs and 10-12 games of lost revenue . That simply would be bad business and I have to think some owners/fans would be very unhappy . The all in is the best solution with the rounds being all best of 3 series and a 7 game Cup final. Because of 31 teams the regular season points leader gets a pass round one . Best of threes for all remaining rounds ...until the Finals . Would be fantastic hockey . Rangers can beat anybody in a short series...so it will not happen....season is OVER right now.

 

[UnSandvich]

7.6x8 years? Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck no

Hmm. It seems the site is cool with you posting f*** if there are enough u's. Useful info

 

[offdacrossbar]

big ryan strome fan for sure.

that contract is not reality.

 

[GAGLine]

Gotta lol at that Strome projection. They usually have a breakdown of what a contract may look like on a 1yr, 2yr, etc., basis, but this seems insane for an 8 year deal. The Tony contract would be a steal

I think Luker just posted the least likely projection for Strome in order to make his case to replace Strome. Seems pretty disingenuous when no one in their right mind would believe that any GM will give him an 8 year deal.

 

[bobbop]

They lost me at Strome 8 X 7.615 MM