Speculation: Roster Building Thread XXXVII: It's the Final Countdown
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- Jan 18, 2012
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Nope, its just my job and hobby and I don't see a chart. I see numbers in a table.
When were those estimates given? Everything is based off of Revenue. Getting a prediction of revenue in December is different than getting a prediction in March.
Oscar Lindberg
Registered User
And yet the December estimates have been more in line with what the actual numbers are, so I'm not sure what to tell you
Maybe be less concerned with my opinion on what the cap is going to be?
- Jan 18, 2012
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Wat? You're not making any sense.
According to your tweet source, the December estimates were too high.... and 'smart GMs' saw them missing that target.
Everything you are saying is based off of emotion. If you were to say I dont see them hitting their revenue guidance because of the Corona Virus you'd have an actual argument but what you're saying is 'I feel like they're going to miss, so they're going to miss.'
I replied to your post because it amused me
leetch99
Leetch66 Joined 2007
I'd plan on Kakko on the 2nd line and Buch on the first or vice versa depending how KK does next season and attempt to pick up a veteran C that can win some draws and dish out passes to our two big wingers . KK has played well of late and I see some improvement..he is coming albeit slowly but he is getting better and he will as he gets stronger and more confident . That fills two lines and VK slotted in on the third on the wing ...with Julien in the mix somewhere . The forward lines are not perfect but will suffice for a couple of years if we can make it fit cap wise . The D might be the hard part and we will have to continue to outscore clubs until a couple of years pass and Miller and ? join Lindgren . We might have to keep one of Staal or Smith one more season as 6-7th guys . Julien might be the dark horse for next season . I am however concerned about Lemieux...I figure he has had a just fair season so far this year and has been a bit of a let down . Whether we resign Fast likely depends on budget , Diguiseppe [sp?] looks like he could be a regular for a couple of seasons....keep him .
leetch99
Leetch66 Joined 2007
Sign DeAngelo for 50 million for 8 years . Say what you want but as this club gets better and gains even more offensive confidence especially Chytil/KK/VK /Fox/Trouba/Julien.....Tony is going to be even BETTER and will be like Brian Leetch...not Brian Leetch but as far as offense goes....he is getting there . He has the potential to be a 90-100 point dman in 4 years if everything breaks our way . He does stuff you just CANNOT teach . Call that suggestion ludicrous if you wish but I firmly believe it will happen . Pay him !!!
Shesterkybomb
Registered User
- Dec 30, 2016
- 17,683
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Hes in the 3rd/4th line bundle...just didnt put him in because I had 6 bottom 6ers
Cannot say that. Yes, those two would help, but this team is still not in the same league as some of the playoff teams that they are facing right now.
More ammo is always good. And they will likely be in a position to land a pretty good player.
This is where people's expectations can get the better of them. Expecting Kravsov to play a big role next year may be setting yourself up for disappointment. He may or may not need more development. And if Kakko gets 35-38 points next year, is that good enough for your "big role"?
Agreed with the first, but not sure about the second. I expect the team to be a cusp team next year.
Agree. The Kreider-Chytil-Buch line was great early in the season when Mika was injured. Not sure why Quinn split them.
I think that seeing how Strome performed with Panarin and the chemistry that Krieder has with Zibanajad, the coaching staff probably keeps those pairs together. That also keeps Chytil as 3rd line center.
Regarding the defense, I do not see Fox usurping Trouba's time as the top defenesman against the opposition's top offensive players. Nor do I believe that there is desire to break up Fox & Lindgren.
Maybe Hajek can have a big camp and partner with DeAngelo. But who plays top line RW & how does the defense fill in (I doubt many want both Staal & Smith to be part of the regular rotation) are the big questions.
pld459666
Registered User
I've said this before, I'll say it again, if Stromes biggest asset is that he plays well with Panarin, that alone is reason enough to keep him around for another 4-5 years.
If plug and play were so easy, anyone can center Panarin and would post a 70point pace.
Panarin is obviously a special player, he ain't that special that he can take a 3rd liner and make him produce at top line pace.
Strome is tied for 14th amongst center scoring this year. Kid as skill.
Also, it's not like hes way ahead of his goal scoring pace. His assists are up.
The biggest jump hes taken is not just on Panarin.
It's a combination of himself, Panarin, ADA, CK and Mika all contributing to having a top 5 PP.
Strome has 17 PP points this year, 9 more than his career high.
Hes a legit 2and liner that's benefitting from the Pasta and Mika rubs, but make s no mistake, he has talent for sure.
If plug and play were so easy, anyone can center Panarin and would post a 70point pace.
Panarin is obviously a special player, he ain't that special that he can take a 3rd liner and make him produce at top line pace.
Strome is tied for 14th amongst center scoring this year. Kid as skill.
Also, it's not like hes way ahead of his goal scoring pace. His assists are up.
The biggest jump hes taken is not just on Panarin.
It's a combination of himself, Panarin, ADA, CK and Mika all contributing to having a top 5 PP.
Strome has 17 PP points this year, 9 more than his career high.
Hes a legit 2and liner that's benefitting from the Pasta and Mika rubs, but make s no mistake, he has talent for sure.
If the cap ceiling gets to $88 million by the 2021 offseason, as it stands right nownthe Rangers will have $52 million to work with. They will have only 6 players out of lets say 21 signed. They will have 6 RFA contracts to sort through. Chytil, Buch, Gauthier, Howden, Lindgren, Igor. You might lose someone to expansion. You might move bodies. Unless Chytil explodes next year, out of the Rookies, I dont see significant pay bumps. Lindgren probably being the most increase, and even then his AAV wont be astronomical as a 4-6 Dman on the depth chart. Lets say it takes about $13-$16 million to get those 6 RFAs signed. 12 roster spots. 9 remaining unfilled. That leaves about $36 million to fill out the remaining 9 spots. You probably have about 2-3 on ELCs. So lets say $33 million for 6 spots which would include a backup goalie. Cheap backup at around $2 million plus. About $30 million for 5 spots. If you maxed that $30 million and averaged it out, its $6 million per spot. Of course it wont cost $6 million per for a quality depth forward or defenseman.
All in all it leaves room to play with. To sign a top player if you want to splurge. If you feel you could really make a push for the ‘21-‘22 season based on the progression you see next season. Especially around Igor. The names on the 2021 free agent list are intriguing. Not saying we would sign them, but you have Ovechkin, Krejci, RNH, Saad, Hamilton, Landeskog, Schwartz, Palmieri, Larsson, Gallagher. A real mix of different player types. I know Ovie and Krejci are older. You have some that are older such as Steen that you may want as veteran depth in the bottom 6. If Hank retires, there are backup goalie options such as Jake Allen. Its an interesting class overall.
All in all it leaves room to play with. To sign a top player if you want to splurge. If you feel you could really make a push for the ‘21-‘22 season based on the progression you see next season. Especially around Igor. The names on the 2021 free agent list are intriguing. Not saying we would sign them, but you have Ovechkin, Krejci, RNH, Saad, Hamilton, Landeskog, Schwartz, Palmieri, Larsson, Gallagher. A real mix of different player types. I know Ovie and Krejci are older. You have some that are older such as Steen that you may want as veteran depth in the bottom 6. If Hank retires, there are backup goalie options such as Jake Allen. Its an interesting class overall.
I’ve been saying it but when the Cap is 90 mil you aren’t going to worry about paying one of your best guys 6.5 mil. It’s nothing.
we’re going to get a nice increase of at least 3 mil this summer. We could keep everyone at this point if we really wanted too (except hank)
we’re going to get a nice increase of at least 3 mil this summer. We could keep everyone at this point if we really wanted too (except hank)
Fox has already started to take those minutes from Trouba.
Pretty sure he leads all defenders in TOI 5v5 since the ASB. It's becoming more commonplace for he and Lindgren to be matched up against an opponent's top line. It's not optimal, but they've handled it pretty well considering where they are in their young careers.
Replacing Staal won't be too hard. Getting a competent top 4 LHD to pair with Trouba is the challenge.
DutchShamrock
Registered User
Yeah, they got embarrassed last year with an incorrect projection. Teams made some plans based on an intial quote and then got burned when it came in lower. The league said they would be more careful in the future.
Daly putting these numbers should he viewed pretty solid. It's possible the bottom drops out, maybe lost gates to Coronavirus? But that's the type of catastrophe it would take for the projection to be off. Unless they are really that bad at their job they blow it twice in a row.
Like it or not, Fox is NOT Trouba and he is, as far as I can tell, not playing mainly against the opposition's top players.
Trouba still takes the lion's share. Or as far as I can tell. And I believe that is how he is viewed.
And my view is that if Fox had Trouba's usage, his stats take a beating.
I do not disagree. I would think that replacing Staal would be easier and believe that management wants for him to be the 7th, but we shall see.
Finding Trouba's partner long term is harder as I believe that it involves someone that will be looked at being top pair and handling the opposition's top lines.
They wouldn't.
The disparity of TOI against top line competition between Trouba and Fox is not that drastic and I'd bet that over the last month, Fox has seen more.
Gardner McKay
RIP, Jimmy.
Asking a question isn't flaming you. If it was just LeBrun theorizing what he believed the cap numbers to be, I would have understood. I just didn't get where the extreme skepticism came in considering it was coming directly from Daly himself.
Just for the record, 84m is the expected cap without the inflator and the range covers it up to the full 5%.
With all the contracts designed to be lock-out proof, they think escrow will be lower next season. Possibly a lot lower.
How will the PA react to that? I don’t think they will take it into consideration. The inflator give a one-off effect, and if you use it one year and not the next — it reduces the cap instead. It’s hard to know how the PA will vote, but logically the cap should be around 84m.
The NHL estimates has rarely been high, but the PA hasn’t used the inflator and the higher range haven’t been applicable.
Just for the record, going from 81.5m to 84m is historically a very low increase. Its 3%. The average growth per season since 05’ is a bit more than 5%, and that includes the financial crash, the player’s share dropping to 50%, the loonie being low and so forth.
Has Bettman stopped growing the game? Where is the increases in revenue? Maybe 3% isn’t that bad when inflation is so low...
Blue Blooded
Most people rejected his message
Trouba has lost his role to Fox and has no spot on this roster with his current contract.
When Fox takes the top assignments who provides more value against the lesser opposition, Trouba or DeAngelo? All evidence strongly points to the latter.
Even with DeAngelo gone, Trouba can probably provide $5M/year value at most with Fox ahead of him 5v5 and on the PP.
If you need a physical presence on the blueline, send DET a 3rd/4th for NEMETH who can do the same for $3M.
Amazing Kreiderman
Registered User
- Apr 11, 2011
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The difference between the two is exactly 5% (the NHLPA escalator). So it seems the 84m is set by the owners/NHL with anything higher depending on the NHLPA
Kocur Dill
picklicious
- Feb 7, 2010
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The last few years CBJ fans on HFB kept mentioning a stiff that was glued to Panarin and had abnormal numbers because of that. I cant remember who, but their concerns about that players trade value and contract worth are just a valid as any we bring up with Strome.
I dont want to see Panarin become Gaborik. We need him to click with likewise talent as he did with Kane. Driving a line of dead pylons isn't going to win us Cups.
Forget just affecting Panarins game, but also the D that are on the ice in conjunction. You cant expect ADA or Fox to be Panarins only weapons.
Strome and Fast aren't cutting it.
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