Speculation: Roster Building Thread XXXVII: It's the Final Countdown

[duhmetreE]

There’s no chance the cap is that high. 83.5 to 84 is where I predict it will be

HF poster or Deputy Commisioner... Who's going to be right... Who has a better insight to revenue?

 

[Ardi44]

There’s no chance the cap is that high. 83.5 to 84 is where I predict it will be

the figure came from the GM meetings. why wouldnt you think it splits the difference?

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

the figure came from the GM meetings. why wouldnt you think it splits the difference?

Because the NHL routinely over promises on the cap numbers and under delivers when it's actually announced

 

[duhmetreE]

Because the NHL routinely over promises on the cap numbers and under delivers when it's actually announced

It's March. They'd have a good idea on revenue.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

It's March. They'd have a good idea on revenue.

Call me when the number is actually announced and it's closer to 84 million

 

[mas0764]

The cap is going up dramatically one way or another with the new TV deal coming.

It's just a question of whether it's this year or not.

 

[duhmetreE]

The cap is going up dramatically one way or another with the new TV deal coming.

It's just a question of whether it's this year or not.

????

The cap is based off of revenue. It's not the stock market. The TV deal wont be realized until 2022.

 

[Mac n Gs]

A higher cap means more escrow taken out from player salaries. It'll be on the lower end like it always is, but a ~$2.5M definitely helps the Rangers have some breathing room moving forward. It also makes a Kreider extension look that much more palatable as a long-term deal.

 

[UnSandvich]

Yeah. I'm still not a fan of the Kreider extension, but a big cap bump will go a long way in assuaging my fears on that front.

 

[Leetch3]

last year I think they said 83 and then at the very last minute it came in at 81.5.

and my guess is the difference between 84 & 88 that he is talking about is the NHLPA 5% inflator not unknown about the revenue...

 

[duhmetreE]

A higher cap means more escrow taken out from player salaries. It'll be on the lower end like it always is, but a ~$2.5M definitely helps the Rangers have some breathing room moving forward. It also makes a Kreider extension look that much more palatable as a long-term deal.

Friedman made a point about this. A lot of the players have smaller salaries this upcoming year and going into the end of the CBA ( front loaded contracts ), so they wouldn't mind having larger escrow taken out to increase salary cap.

Would anyone know if S.Bonuses are affected or is it just salary?

 

[Governor]

Would it be best for the NYR to trade Strome, let him walk or resign him?

 

[Fitzy]

Not that it necessarily matters, but Zibanejad comes up for extension the same year that the new NHL CBA is to be negotiated.

 

[Edge]

Yeah. I'm still not a fan of the Kreider extension, but a big cap bump will go a long way in assuaging my fears on that front.

The Kreider deal was a little higher and a year longer than I would've liked, and I probably wouldn't have made the Skjei deal at this point in time, but there is definitely a path for me to be more comfortable and accepting of both.

Some of it depends on the follow-up moves the Rangers make via trade, via signings, via buyouts, via the draft, etc.; and some of it depends on how the cap moves.

Like you, a nice bump in the salary cap essentially pays for Kreider's extension and significantly moves me into "okay" territory.

 

[duhmetreE]

Would it be best for the NYR to trade Strome, let him walk or resign him?

#3 then #1

 

[Fitzy]

Would it be best for the NYR to trade Strome, let him walk or resign him?

Letting him walk would be the big NO

I'd lean towards re-signing, with the plan to eventually trade him. If his contract asks are silly season, trade him while he still has RFA status.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Even if the cap comes in on the lower end of what OL is predicting, that would be very helpful.

We would still probably need to clear money somewhere, but there are plenty of ways to do that.

 

[RGY]

HF poster or Deputy Commisioner... Who's going to be right... Who has a better insight to revenue?

There is no way the cap comes in under $84 after Bill Daly’s announcement. I mean how do you come to the conclusion that the Deputy Commissioner is wrong and over projecting just months away from the release of what the cap will ultimately be.

Given the range thrown out there, lets say its $86. Right in the middle. $4.5 million increase. There is your pay bump for DeAngelo.

According to CapFriendly, as of right now the Rangers will have $16.891 space with the upper limit set at $84. CapFriendly already has it set at $84. Almost $19 million to work with to add 6-7 more players to fill out the roster. Very doable. If they can move Smith’s salary to a cap floor team, they would have money to sign a Brenden Dillon. Ryan Strome, if they just go to arbitration, probably settles around $4.25-$4.75 bump. If they extend him 2-3 years, bump likely goes to $5.5 AAV. Lets say they extend him. Total of $6.9 provided to Strome and DeAngelo pay raises. Subtract Smith’s $4.35 and replace it with Dillon at $3.5 for 3 years. You end up at $6.1 increase roughly, overall. 17 roster players.

Leaves about $12 million to find the remaining 4-5 roster players. That would include RFA Georgiev, Lemieux, and DiGuiseppe out of the 4-5. No significant pay bumps for Lemmy and DiGi. You could move Georgiev in a package for a forward if they decide to keep Hank for the final year as the backup. Or they move Georgiev for a draft picks and package that. With the bumps to Lemmy and DiGi, say $800k overall...you are left with around $10 million aav to find a quality depth forward or two.

 

[Edge]

Would it be best for the NYR to trade Strome, let him walk or resign him?

Depends on the terms.

I could see there being an internal desire for a 2-3 year deal until the team knows Chytil is fully ready to assume the second line spot, and to provide some flexibility on the roster. Likewise, I think Strome's camp might be willing to talk that kind of term.

I don't see them letting him walk. Very, very little chance of that.

I think trade remains a possibility, but I'd venture that it might be option B for the team right now.

 

[kovazub94]

im less concerned about this year and making the playoffs now. really no big deal at this point.

BUT, i still do believe that we would have made the playoffs if shesty doesnt have the accident and kreider doesn't break the foot. we're in if those things dont happen. and that experience of making the playoffs, the feeling of a playoff series and having this team take that step would have been beneficial to thus teams overall development and then next year these guys would have expected to be in the playoffs.

im not even that excited for his draft given where we will be picking. no one really move the needle for me and certainly not any time soon. who we draft this year just stocks there pipeline. thats not bad, its just nothing to get excited about for the next few seasons.

i love where this team is heading with our top 6 PLUS Julien now. i love the right side of this defense. and Shesterkin is legit. just need Kakko, Fil and Kravtsov to break through next year and play big roles.

just get me a left side defense to go along with ryan lindgren. get me a couple sound defensive lefties who understand how to play defense and a bottom 6 with some guys who can play a more gritty, in your face game- ala the blues, and im ok with this rebuild.

things are very bright for this organization and next season we will make the playoffs.

I hear you but IMO these remaining regular season games would be pretty much an equivalent of playoff experience WITHOUT the satisfaction of actually making it.

 

[Gardner McKay]

There’s no chance the cap is that high. 83.5 to 84 is where I predict it will be

I'm confused. Those figures are directly from Daly, the deputy commissioner. He says 84 is the floor, it could be potentially as high as 88, and you're predicting with great confidence it will be even less than 84. Based on... what?

 

[mas0764]

????

The cap is based off of revenue. It's not the stock market. The TV deal wont be realized until 2022.

Of course, I'm just saying, the cap is going up sooner rather than later.

The debate as to how much it's going up this year is the issue.... but overall it is gonna end up skyrocketing within a relevant time period for us.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Cap going up to 84-88 mill so that's a help with the Shattenkirk buyout.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I'm confused. Those figures are directly from Daly, the deputy commissioner. He says 84 is the floor and you're predicting with great confidence it will be even less. Based on... what?

As I posted earlier, the league inflates the numbers and then the cap comes in less when actually announced

Recently the initial cap estimates given in December are usually in line with what the cap is, not the numbers they give later on in the season.

This isn't my tweet but here is the last few years



Lebrun wrote an article in December asking league governors about the cap estimation, they said anywhere between 82.5 to 83.5. That's where my expectations are for the cap.

If it's more, great you all can flame me, but I'll believe it's going to be higher than 84 when I see it

 

[duhmetreE]

As I posted earlier, the league inflates the numbers and then the cap comes in less when actually announced

Recently the initial cap estimates given in December are usually in line with what the cap is, not the numbers they give later on in the season.

This isn't my tweet but here is the last few years



Lebrun wrote an article in December asking league governors about the cap estimation, they said anywhere between 82.5 to 83.5. That's where my expectations are for the cap.

If it's more, great you all can flame me, but I'll believe it's going to be higher than 84 when I see it

so your source is a tweet from 2019?

Revenue is revenue. Predicting revenue in December is not as effective as predicting Revenue in March.

Corona Virus can start to affect attendance though. Where numbers may have to be revised down.