Speculation: Roster building thread XXIV:

[Edge]

Sure, I get it. I guess my point is that Kravstov making the jump, Chytil improving, Kakko improving may not be enough to 1) have the organic improvement that we are all expecting for next year AND 2) also compensate for the production lost from Kreider.

There are multiple reasons that we are all expecting the team to be better next year. Among them is the natural progression of the youngsters. But that natural progression, at least in my view, will probably not also be enough to replace what they are loosing. As you said, that will probably need to come from a trade. For what? I have no idea. We have bantered about a young and coming power forward who can supplement the skill level of this team and also produce. But will that be enough? Not sure. But as you said, there are just too many moving pieces right now. We will have much more clarity once the TDL has come and gone

If I had to guess, and not a particularly educated guess at this point, I think we'll probably see a net gain on the roster. I think we'll miss elements that Kreider brings, but I think we will see enough progress elsewhere on the offense to make up the difference in overall production. Not by leaps and bounds mind you, maybe even slightly less, but roughly enough.

What I think the difference could be is the depth at forward, especially if you have multiple pieces coming back for Georgiev, or Buch, or wherever. I also think there's the potential for the defense to be a bit better, with Fox and ADA more firmly established, with the LD gaining some experience, or even with a piece acquired for one of the above mentioned names.

Is that enough to push the Rangers into the playoffs? Right now, on the spot, I think it could be. At the very least, I think it could get them into a similar spot that Philadelphia currently finds itself in ---right on that cusp.

 

[Edge]

A sell off should hopefully make getting into the top 6 attainable for us.

Last year I predicted 4 to 6, and we were right in that range, before finishing with the 6th pick.

This year I predicted 8 to 12, and we are right in that range, and I'm going to guess we finish 8th.

I think San Jose continues to slide, putting sixth out of range. I think we slide past Montreal and Buffalo, but Minnesota ends up edging us out. The next result ends up being 8th.

Then we win the lottery and take Lafreniere or Byfield.

 

[EdJovanovski]

 

[Edge]

Agreed. But again, I'm not entirely sure we will see a selloff this time around. At least that's not what the organization is telling us.

Right now, I see only two pieces that might constitute a sell-off: Kreider and Fast.

Georgiev I tend to view as more of a personnel move if possible --- that one is definitely about trying to get an NHL talent back.

Ditto for any hypothetical Buch trade, I don't think they're looking for a repeat of what they pursued with Edmonton last year.

 

[bobbop]

Every time I see Trouba on the ice with Skeji, I am reminded of the greatest beer commercial of all time (directed by my friend Baker Smith)

 

[broadwayblue]

Right now, I see only two pieces that might constitute a sell-off: Kreider and Fast.

Georgiev I tend to view as more of a personnel move if possible --- that one is definitely about trying to get an NHL talent back.

Ditto for any hypothetical Buch trade, I don't think they're looking for a repeat of what they pursued with Edmonton last year.

So you think the centerpiece in a deal for Kreider is going to be a 1st round pick as opposed to a young NHL player?

What do think they are ideally looking for in return for Georgiev? Middle 6 forward?

 

[Shesterkybomb]

not saying he's bad. Just saying his position on a top line (or 2 lines) is contingent on the quality of the wingers. Would like to have him either way, but not at a 1c (or 2c) price.


EDIT: does anyone know how to delete a signature?

He would be an ideal 3rd liner on a cup contending team and he is only 26 and has finally found his legs. There is room to grow with him since he finally found a fit for himself in NY.

 

[rangers1314]

Right now, I see only two pieces that might constitute a sell-off: Kreider and Fast.

Georgiev I tend to view as more of a personnel move if possible --- that one is definitely about trying to get an NHL talent back.

Ditto for any hypothetical Buch trade, I don't think they're looking for a repeat of what they pursued with Edmonton last year.

Can you remind me of what that was?

 

[Shesterkybomb]

How much we gonna give DeAngelo vs how much he wants will decide his fate. Same goes for Strome,Fast and Kreider.

 

[Ola]

The "problem" is we're comparing a team that sold off just before the deadline, again, for a bunch of assets with the team fielding the youngest lineup in the league.

If anything, I think the Rangers have performed better than expected fielding a bunch of rookies and really young players with significant minutes each and every night. Kakko. Fox. Lindgren. Hajek. Igor. Georgiev. Andersson. Howden. Chytil.

Leave it to RB to spin it as a negative when, really, no one had ANY expectations about this year - Panarin or not.

I don’t think we disagree on what conclusions to draw from it, but I don’t really agree on the description of our problems.

I think many of our kids have performed up to par. I also think our top guys have been fantastic — and they have played a really big role.

The — big — difference from my POV is that last season we stole a lot of games and this year we fail to take wins that we should have taken. And I definitely think a big reason for that is David Quinn. Our top guys are so good that he plays them too much. Late in games when it’s decided Ziba and Panarin and go have just played way too much. There is a big difference between being 95% with 5 minutes left or 80%. Just go back and watch highlights of how we look when we lose many games, you instantly see that these guys don’t have the same jump they had 5 minutes into the game.

JMHO.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Yeah, I don't see what the problem is.

If anything people were all freaking out and worried when we signed Panarin that we would be too good and ruin our rebuild.

If we are only a point better before yet another impending sell off, then that's great news. It means we secured two long term pieces in Trouba and Panarin and didn't compromise the rebuild by spoiling another tank year with a playoff run. We will still be in position to win the lottery, or maintain our own top-10 pick, and hopefully compile some additional assets or first rounders that we could even use as ammo to move up into the top 5 to get a guy like Stutzle or Raymond (assuming Byfield and Lafrieniere are out of reach).

This is one way to look at it. Another way is that we didn't get much improvement/guys haven't performed up to expectation. Namely Kakko/Kravtsov/Andersson/Howden/Hajek who have all either stagnated or worse. Which would have been the better outcome? Remains to be seen.

 

[Ola]

What happen if we put Trouba last season vs Trouba this season in this match-up? Or Pionk vs Pionk?

 

[Edge]

So you think the centerpiece in a deal for Kreider is going to be a 1st round pick as opposed to a young NHL player?

What do think they are ideally looking for in return for Georgiev? Middle 6 forward?

Well I'll preface by saying that there's a difference between look for compared to what they might get.

I think in Kreider's case, I think they'd love to add a young NHL player, but the I have doubts they get a high-level one. Teams just don't trade those guys for rentals.

I think you a first round pick is the most likely return, with a good prospect on the cusp of being an NHL player (like Hayes deal last season). If they're able to push something closer to the Nash deal, you're probably looking at a guy in his mid 20s who has some warts, a first round pick, and a younger prospect who either hasn't turned pro and/or isn't viewed as being a high ceiling prospect, but is seen as an NHL player.

From there, the question becomes whether the Rangers would actually use the first round pick --- I'd put the odds there at 50/50.

With Georgiev, if he's not part of a larger package, I think they're aiming for a middle six forward, or maybe even defensive help for the left side. I get there's a market for Georgiev, but I'm not sure I totally buy into the belief that he brings back Kapanen and something additional by himself. I think we'd have to add something on our end.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I don’t think we disagree on what conclusions to draw from it, but I don’t really agree on the description of our problems.

I think many of our kids have performed up to par. I also think our top guys have been fantastic — and they have played a really big role.

The — big — difference from my POV is that last season we stole a lot of games and this year we fail to take wins that we should have taken. And I definitely think a big reason for that is David Quinn. Our top guys are so good that he plays them too much. Late in games when it’s decided Ziba and Panarin and go have just played way too much. There is a big difference between being 95% with 5 minutes left or 80%. Just go back and watch highlights of how we look when we lose many games, you instantly see that these guys don’t have the same jump they had 5 minutes into the game.

JMHO.

This will take care of itself when we have better players than Fast, Buchnevich and Strome in the top 6. Kakko should replace one, Chytil the other and hopefully Kravtsov.

 

[Edge]

Can you remind me of what that was?

Multiple conversations involving Edmonton's first and/or JP, depending on the date of the talks and whether a larger deal was being discussed.

They were talking with Edmonton right up until the 11th hour at the draft.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

What happen if we put Trouba last season vs Trouba this season in this match-up? Or Pionk vs Pionk?

Or if Trouba didnt get Crosby, MacKinnon, McDavid, Scheiffle, Marchand every night he plays. I don't think we are getting our full monies worth from him but without him we are a dumpster fire. Imo he would be the worst guy to lose now on D, just because if his role. If either deangelo or Fox go down the other can replace him. Neither guy is replacing Troubas mins.

 

[EdJovanovski]

What happen if we put Trouba last season vs Trouba this season in this match-up? Or Pionk vs Pionk?

 

[True Blue]

At the very least, I think it could get them into a similar spot that Philadelphia currently finds itself in ---right on that cusp.

That is about where I am coming out at.

 

[Ola]

The NHL standings right now are so weird to look at.

Because of the schedule, we currently sit 10th in the draft, but actually have one less point than the team picking 7th.

With those four positions comes almost double the odds of picking in the top 3.

Not directed at you, but I think people hoping for us to drop deep will be really disappointed in our finish of the season.

There is always a bit of a speculating involved in projecting these things, but I just don’t think this group provides an aura of stop caring the last months. It’s different with the teams that are really dissatisfied with their performance that usually just collapse at the end.

3-4 wins will screw us a ton in he standings.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I'd be unimpressed by a deal that involved Kapanan. I just see him as Grabner without being able to penalty kill.

 

[Thirty One]

Or if Trouba didnt get Crosby, MacKinnon, McDavid, Scheiffle, Marchand every night he plays.

That's what he's driving at.

 

[DanielBrassard]

What happen if we put Trouba last season vs Trouba this season in this match-up? Or Pionk vs Pionk?

 

[Beer League Sniper]

How much we gonna give DeAngelo vs how much he wants will decide his fate. Same goes for Strome,Fast and Kreider.

DeAngelo has us over a barrel this offseason, and I doubt he's very interested in giving us any discount, since Gorton used the absolute leverage he had to force the kid to play for a pittance above his QO.

Fact is, he deserves his payday if he keeps this up throughout the season. He's a difference-maker on the back end, and has been for now a second season.

 

[True Blue]

How much we gonna give DeAngelo vs how much he wants will decide his fate. Same goes for Strome,Fast and Kreider.

DeAngelo is not a UFA, so not he is nothing like Kreider and Fast. And different than Strome, who has only one year left as RFA. So how much he wants may not be at all relevant. What is relevant are market comps. And let's face it, with the year he is having, he is going to get more than enough.

DeAngelo is becoming a 55-60 point, 23 year old defenseman. Those do not grow on trees. Simplifying it down the lowest common denominator here is not the right answer or very realistic. Gorton & JD will try to get a long term deal done with him. His ask will be higher than what they are offering. That is natural. Hopefully, they can meet in the middle and get a deal done. If not, then he goes to arbitration and market comps are used. And then Gorton can try again the following year. And so on. Eventually, a deal will get done. As I said, these type of numbers do not grow on trees. With them, you get a long term deal done (at some point), live with the defensive warts and concentrate on getting him a defensive partner that will compliment his game.

 

[Edge]

Not directed at you, but I think people hoping for us to drop deep will be really disappointed in our finish of the season.

There is always a bit of a speculating involved in projecting these things, but I just don’t think this group provides an aura of stop caring the last months. It’s different with the teams that are really dissatisfied with their performance that usually just collapse at the end.

3-4 wins will screw us a ton in he standings.

I would expect us to more or less maintain what we've seen for the last couple of months --- a little less than .500 hockey. As such, I'm with you, I think a plummet isn't the most likely scenario. I think a few teams might pass us somewhat organically, but I don't think we'll drop like a stone past them.

That is about where I am coming out at.

And if that's the case, I could see them making a move or two to get over the hump. Maybe not a big-time transaction, but I could see them moving a second rounder and a B prospect to bring a guy in.