Speculation: Roster Building Thread XLVIII - “Into the Heartland”

[Fitzy]

That Hayes contract has buyout candidate in three years written all over it.

If there's a compliance buyout, maybe.

He's 27. It's a fully mid-prime contract. He's a 40-50 point 2nd line center who is solid defensively and adds size. Look at what Jordan Staal got 6 years ago with similar production. Is anyone buying him out?

7 x 6.5 was probably his fair value, the Flyers only slightly overreached. If NYR can get Kreider at 6X6 I'd be thrilled.

 

[Edge]

Even worst case I gotta feel like someone would take Shattenkirk at 50% and a 7th rounder for their 7th rounder.

This is the same group of GMs that gave Jack Johnson a 5 year deal for $3.25 at age 31 last summer.

I think if that option were there, the Rangers would take it.

Guys, I don't shape the opinions of other GMs. I'm just here to tell you that these concepts aren't something that hasn't been offered already and turned down.

Even if a team was willing to sign him for two years and $3.25, why give up the asset when they know there's a reasonable chance he's a buyout candidate? He's not so in-demand that teams are worried about losing out on the open market.

Like I said, the Rangers will keep working it. But thus far, to put it bluntly, it ain't happening.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

So I could see having to add to Kreider to get a top 10 pick. I wonder if we could do so without adding one of our top prospects or a future first.

It's the only way we would. Specially a future first?! That pick will definitely be more worth next year f. ex. than Buff's 1st this year.
Don't expect us to Senator ourselves like that.

 

[TheBPA]

I think if that option were there, the Rangers would take it.

Guys, I don't shape the opinions of other GMs. I'm just here to tell you that these concepts aren't something that hasn't been offered already and turned down.

Even if a team was willing to sign him for two years and $3.25, why give up the asset when they know there's a reasonable chance he's a buyout candidate? He's not so in-demand that teams are worried about losing out on the open market.

Like I said, the Rangers will keep working it. But thus far, to put it bluntly, it ain't happening.

Fair. I guess if I were a GM of certain other teams, I’d take Shattenkirk at 50% for a swap of 7ths. You’re basically giving up nothing for the opportunity to secure the player at a reasonable number - 7th round picks are pretty much equal in value across the board.

 

[Ghost of jas]

If there's a compliance buyout, maybe.

He's 27. It's a fully mid-prime contract. He's a 40-50 point 2nd line center who is solid defensively and adds size.

7 x 6.5 was probably his fair value, the Flyers only slightly overreached. If NYR can get Kreider at 6X6 I'd be thrilled.

The Flyers have Patrick, Rubstov and Frost on the way. This is why teams find themselves with cap issues. And in a conference with Point, Tavares, Krecji, Backstrom, and Malkin as ‘2nd line’ centers, making that kind of investment in Hayes to be your 2C just boggles my mind.

 

[Edge]

And the truth is, it only takes one GM. Thus far, it hasn't materialized. I will say that I think if Shattenkirk has a good season, there could be a decent amount of interest in him at $3.25 for one season. But I get the sense that the two year commitment might be the bigger hangup.

 

[Trxjw]

This most interesting thing for me this time of year is the insight into value around the league. This board spends most of it's time asserting that player X or pick N is worth a, b or c, and then there's this wave of shock and disbelief when we're proven wrong time and time again.

Seems like there's an abundance of trade talk around the league. Should be an interesting few days for sure.

 

[bl02]

Maybe its me but I would not trade Vesey to Buffalo. I would rather trade him somewhere he wants to go if lets say its the difference between a late third or even early/mid 4th rounder. Guy chose us over Buffalo in the beginning I'm sure he doesn't wanna play there. If he's changed his mind over the years and doesn't mind playing there then this whole point is obviously moot. Just feel like its a shitty thing to do

 

[Dijock94]

And the truth is, it only takes one GM. Thus far, it hasn't materialized. I will say that I think if Shattenkirk has a good season, there could be a decent amount of interest in him at $3.25 for one season. But I get the sense that the two year commitment might be the bigger hangup.

Do you think the Rangers are closed off to the idea of keeping him until the deadline and trying again? I mean I can’t see the harm in giving Fox time in Hartford.

 

[JimmyG89]

There is no interest in Shatty right now because other options still exist. Some teams would rather sign Myers. I'm sure there will be other RHD on the market through trade as well. Nobody saw Gudas for Niskanen as a thing in spite of people knowing the Caps needs to make some more room.

Also, some teams aren't huge on the left-right combos as others are.

The names we've seen as being on the market for defense that have contracts:

Subban, Brodie, Shattenkirk, Dougie Hamilton, Leddy, Barrie, Risto, Bogosian, Faulk, Zaitsev, Gostisbehere, Tanev, Brendan Smith, Collin Miller, Michael Stone, Dillon. Now, not all of them are going to move, but with what we have seen so far and the GM talk, i'd say that there is a pretty good chance we see at least 5 of the players on this list moved during the offseason.

On top of the UFA market, you've got plenty of defense available to teams. I don't think we're going to get a resolution on Shattenkirk for a while, maybe not until most of the free agents sign.

 

[Edge]

Maybe its me but I would not trade Vesey to Buffalo. I would rather trade him somewhere he wants to go if lets say its the difference between a late third or even early/mid 4th rounder. Guy chose us over Buffalo in the beginning I'm sure he doesn't wanna play there. If he's changed his mind over the years and doesn't mind playing there then this whole point is obviously moot. Just feel like its a ****ty thing to do

I hear you, but that's not really how you can approach these things.

Let's say the difference between picking 67th (Buffalo) and 78th is Dorofyev, you've just shot yourself in the foot.

 

[NYR Viper]

There is no interest in Shatty right now because other options still exist. Some teams would rather sign Myers. I'm sure there will be other RHD on the market through trade as well. Nobody saw Gudas for Niskanen as a thing in spite of people knowing the Caps needs to make some more room.

Also, some teams aren't huge on the left-right combos as others are.

The names we've seen as being on the market for defense that have contracts:

Subban, Brodie, Shattenkirk, Dougie Hamilton, Leddy, Barrie, Risto, Bogosian, Faulk, Zaitsev, Gostisbehere, Tanev, Brendan Smith, Collin Miller, Michael Stone, Dillon. Now, not all of them are going to move, but with what we have seen so far and the GM talk, i'd say that there is a pretty good chance we see at least 5 of the players on this list moved during the offseason.

On top of the UFA market, you've got plenty of defense available to teams. I don't think we're going to get a resolution on Shattenkirk for a while, maybe not until most of the free agents sign.

Exactly right. Unless they are taking back one or two bad contracts which I’m not sure is attractive to the team right now.

 

[Edge]

Do you think the Rangers are closed off to the idea of keeping him until the deadline and trying again? I mean I can’t see the harm in giving Fox time in Hartford.

Don't know the answer to that.

I think there's a reasonable chance Fox gets the half-a-season or more in Hartford treatment. The Rangers do have a history of taking that approach, going back to McD. There have been obvious exceptions, but I'd say it's a possibility.

 

[DanielBrassard]

If they can't even get a bite on Shattenkirk then keep him. Buyout should be completely off the table, and selling him for nothing is just dumb.

 

[smoneil]

Don't know the answer to that.

I think there's a reasonable chance Fox gets the half-a-season or more in Hartford treatment. The Rangers do have a history of taking that approach, going back to McD. There have been obvious exceptions, but I'd say it's a possibility.

I wonder whether the team sees ADA as "established" yet. I could see them thinking of a right side of Trouba, Shatt, and then letting ADA and Fox battle for that last spot in camp. Winner gets 3RD, loser gets Hartford 1RD (at least until Shatt makes way). With one of Lindgren or Hajek on the left, I can see them liking a vet partner on the opposite side for most of the season.

 

[GAGLine]

Even worst case I gotta feel like someone would take Shattenkirk at 50% and a 7th rounder for their 7th rounder.

This is the same group of GMs that gave Jack Johnson a 5 year deal for $3.25 at age 31 last summer.

There's no market for Shatty and Smith right now because neither is at the top of anyone's list. Every team is going to have several players they are targeting ahead of them. Some of those guys have already moved, but there's still guys like Myers and Stralman who will be more attractive to most teams. And that only includes teams that are looking for RHD, and some of those may not be looking for one that is more of a PP specialist.

I'm hoping that Gorton is patient and waits for the second buyout period if necessary, but other moves might necessitate a buyout during the regular period. It could be that some teams will circle back to Shatty or Smith if they strike out on landing other players.

 

[NYR Viper]

Don't know the answer to that.

I think there's a reasonable chance Fox gets the half-a-season or more in Hartford treatment. The Rangers do have a history of taking that approach, going back to McD. There have been obvious exceptions, but I'd say it's a possibility.

And rationally, this makes a ton of sense. HOPEFULLY they leave a spot open on LD for a young player to break in. They should start determining what they have with a couple of these guys this year or they may end up with a serious log jam

 

[DanielBrassard]

I wonder whether the team sees ADA as "established" yet. I could see them thinking of a right side of Trouba, Shatt, and then letting ADA and Fox battle for that last spot in camp. Winner gets 3RD, loser gets Hartford 1RD (at least until Shatt makes way). With one of Lindgren or Hajek on the left, I can see them liking a vet partner on the opposite side for most of the season.

It would be a mistake if they don't. Doesn't make any sense for him to be in the AHL.

 

[smoneil]

It would be a mistake if they don't. Doesn't make any sense for him to be in the AHL.

I agree--especially after he started putting it all together last year. I'm just not sure what their plan is with those 4. It could be a McDonagh/Roszival situation (holding on to the vet until the rookie forces the issue). I'd love to be a fly on Fox's wall when he heard about the Trouba trade. It made the odds of him making the NHL roster out of camp a LOT more difficult.

 

[Edge]

I wonder whether the team sees ADA as "established" yet. I could see them thinking of a right side of Trouba, Shatt, and then letting ADA and Fox battle for that last spot in camp. Winner gets 3RD, loser gets Hartford 1RD (at least until Shatt makes way). With one of Lindgren or Hajek on the left, I can see them liking a vet partner on the opposite side for most of the season.

I don't know if they quite few him as fully established, but I don't think they view him as being on the bubble either.

I think the battle would likely be Shatty vs. Fox. The question is how the Rangers view carrying Shattenkirk. Do they think there's a chance he can add to his value and maybe flip him? Do they view him as an insurance policy for a year? I do know they'd move him if they could. So it comes down to whether or not the Rangers are okay living with him for a little while longer.

 

[Edge]

And rationally, this makes a ton of sense. HOPEFULLY they leave a spot open on LD for a young player to break in. They should start determining what they have with a couple of these guys this year or they may end up with a serious log jam

I think this year will go a long way in helping the Rangers evaluate what they have. That's also why Hartford is a priority for this organization.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I agree--especially after he started putting it all together last year. I'm just not sure what their plan is with those 4. It could be a McDonagh/Roszival situation (holding on to the vet until the rookie forces the issue). I'd love to be a fly on Fox's wall when he heard about the Trouba trade. It made the odds of him making the NHL roster out of camp a LOT more difficult.

That could be true although it seems like Fox is destined to be in the NHL from game 1. I realize I have a different view of Shattenkirk than a lot of people here but as of now I think Fox should begin the season in the AHL. Seems the Rangers feel a bit differently so I am not expecting it though.

 

[GAGLine]

I wonder whether the team sees ADA as "established" yet. I could see them thinking of a right side of Trouba, Shatt, and then letting ADA and Fox battle for that last spot in camp. Winner gets 3RD, loser gets Hartford 1RD (at least until Shatt makes way). With one of Lindgren or Hajek on the left, I can see them liking a vet partner on the opposite side for most of the season.

ADA requires waivers to be sent down and we would no doubt lose him. If Fox makes the team and Shatty isn't traded or bought out, then Shatty becomes the 7th dman.

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

We're not going to need the $1.145 in 21-22, 22-23. The free agent market is terrible in 21-22 and apparently you haven't bothered to look. We have Henrik, Marc and Kevin's coming off the books--over $20 mil. I have to say two years from now when all of a sudden it's okay to spend money on UFA's I'm not going to be with you. I'm not going to be interested in overspending on the kinds of players who are going to be available then. They won't be worth it--and it's very, very likely that those of our young moving from their ELC's to 2nd contracts are not going to have proven themselves enough where we're going to be giving them massive deals.

Then we dont have to use the money at all on other teams free agents. But it creates inflexibility for our team to make the trades we did yesterday for a player like trouba that could put us over the top or ROR like st Louis did in order to win a cup. The cap isnt moving up as much every year. It was supposed to be 83m, now I think it's set at 81.5m. I know it doesn't sound like a lot but having 3m in dead cap space just isnt what I'm interested in doing to the future of this franchise with the uncertainty of the cap continuing to move up. I want the flexibility to make these types of moves.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

Fox hasn't played a minute of NHL hockey !!! and folks are like "he's destined to start in the NHL from day 1" ... Jesus F Christ, one guy even wrote Fox will overtake Trouba very soon as our #1RHD ... I can't even ...