Posted it in the Goodrow thread, I'll post it here:
Before we go freaking out about this contract...
First, I won't be surprised if the final deal comes in a bit under the reported numbers. I don't think anyone really expected Goodrow to sign for less than 3M. If we shave it down even a bit, maybe 3.45M it's less of an eyesore. But either way...
In the playoffs, Goodrow's usage went up to 18:15 per game in the first Cup run and 17:07 in the second. He can be relied upon. He won't put up tons of points, but he can play the minutes and be a catalyst for turnovers as well as keep the puck in the other end, forecheck, keep the opposition on their heels. I think he's going to be playing with Panarin.
Blackwell was 27 years old and had only played 33 NHL games in his life before coming to NY. He got plugged in next to Panarin eventually, and finished the season pacing for 20 goals and 40 points, and that wasn't playing the whole year with Panarin. Numbers could have actually been higher, and he isn't actually that good.
I have a feeling we're going to see Goodrow on the Panarin line and not in the bottom six. He'll still take the important defensive draws, protect leads and PK, but I have a feeling he's going to go in Blackwell's spot on the Panarin line. He's ideal. Puck hound, defensively responsible, non-stop motor. It's exactly what Panarin likes to have on his line. Even if Goodrow's production in that spot isn't any better than Fast/Blackwell, that line is still dangerous and Panarin is still a 90+ point player. That buys time for Kravtsov on the third line to ease in and distributes our depth a bit better. If Goodrow is filling a top six spot for us at 3.6M, that's not bad.
Panarin - Strome - Goodrow
Laf - Zib - KK
Kreider - Chytil - Krav
Barron - Rooney - Blackwell
We still want to upgrade on Strome if possible, and if we can add another gritty 4th liner who can defend to take Blackwell's spot and use Blackwell as the extra, that's not too bad. Moreover, we wanted to change the look and identity of the team. If we add another gritty 4th liner and somehow change Strome to someone a bit more defensively reliable, this does that.
I expect Goodrow to play the exact same role that Fast/Blackwell played on Panarin's line and that he'll be around 15g 40pt spark plug. Playing with Panarin, he could be more. So far he paces for 30 points a year, purely at 5v5 and with 15 minutes a night on a shutdown line. Playing with Panarin 16+ minutes a night is a different story. Panarin is one of the best even strength point producers in the world and loves to have a guy like Fast/Goodrow on his off wing. If Goodrow's even a 40 point guy who takes the important draws and PKs, 3.6M won't be the end of the world. If he plays 12 minutes a night on the 4th line, it's a dumb signing.