Speculation: Roster Building Thread XI

[Thirty One]

I don't really see why the top players should get paid less in a flat cap given the flat cap is flat at the all time high. It's not like there is a rollback. Obviously you can no longer assume the cap will go up making contracts look better but if you were giving out contracts with the expectation that they are bad now and will look better as the cap rises then you were just giving out bad deals in the first place.

And most free agents would like their team to give them a bad deal.

 

[Fitzy]

I don't really see why the top players should get paid less in a flat cap given the flat cap is flat at the all time high. It's not like there is a rollback. Obviously you can no longer assume the cap will go up making contracts look better but if you were giving out contracts with the expectation that they are bad now and will look better as the cap rises then you were just giving out bad deals in the first place.

I don't know, back before they put the term limit on contracts, deals like Alex Ovechkin's ended up looking pretty sweet for the capitals.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

 

[Quinnisinoverhishead]

chytil is such a funny case, if he wasnt nyr property then the same guys pumping his tires now would be saying he is worth gauthier and robertson in a trade bc of his injuries, soft matchups, and him never breaking 30pts in his career

He was 22nd in the entire NHL in points/60mins 5v5. He received 12mins/game.
Spent a lot of time playing with Lafraniere (who was an anchor most of last season)

Severely underrated on these boards. Dude is going to be a beast one day. Hopefully we can lock him up before Gallant utilizes his talents.

 

[SA16]

I don't know, back before they put the term limit on contracts, deals like Alex Ovechkin's ended up looking pretty sweet for the capitals.

Well he was one of the best players in the league. We heard all the times with deals like Trouba "Oh, he's a top 5 cap hit now which is a lot but give it a few years when other players get more and then his cap hit will look fine." Maybe you shouldn't be offering deals that look bad at the time in the first place? And only start to look better based on things out of you control?

 

[bleedblue94]

He was 22nd in the entire NHL in points/60mins 5v5. He received 12mins/game.
Spent a lot of time playing with Lafraniere (who was an anchor most of last season)

Severely underrated on these boards. Dude is going to be a beast one day. Hopefully we can lock him up before Gallant utilizes his talents.

so you expect him to at least become a "beast" of a 2nd line center?

12 mins a game of soft matchups with while playing with offensive talent that most 3rd line centers dont get.

What's your production projection for him?

 

[Calad]

did you mean front loaded in those later sentences? because backloaded means more of a cap hit when they're bought out.
2/3 of the remaining salary means if its backloaded its 2/3 of that salary.

no. cap hit is not directly determined by the remaining salary. Per capfriendly:

1. Multiply the remaining salary (excluding signing bonuses) by the buyout amount (as determined by age) to obtain the total buyout cost
2. Spread the total buyout cost evenly over twice the remaining contract years
3. Determine the savings by subtracting the annual buyout cost from Step 2. by the players salary (excluding signing bonuses)
4. Determine the remaining caphit by subtracting the savings from Step 3. by the players Annual Average Salary (AAV) (including signing bonuses)

Buyout FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[duhmetreE]

I don't really see why the top players should get paid less in a flat cap given the flat cap is flat at the all time high. It's not like there is a rollback. Obviously you can no longer assume the cap will go up making contracts look better but if you were giving out contracts with the expectation that they are bad now and will look better as the cap rises then you were just giving out bad deals in the first place.

Who's paying them?

Teams that have cap space but are bleeding cash and are deeep in the red?
or
Teams that are competing already and have no cap room?

The entire market is at a stand still. Player market is in a literal depression. Do you buy a stock at a price before it crashed? or at the current market value?

Honestly would we the best time to load up on long term contracts, if the player is willing.

 

[duhmetreE]

and that's the market.

If only we somehow bought a couple years with Kreider and Trouba

I can see Fox getting offered a similar contract.

 

[Doctyl]

chytil is such a funny case, if he wasnt nyr property then the same guys pumping his tires now would be saying he is worth gauthier and robertson in a trade bc of his injuries, soft matchups, and him never breaking 30pts in his career

Do you actually think Chytil is nothing more than a 30 point player?

you’re out to lunch if you don’t think ice time and PP time impact point totals.

 

[rangers1314]

Friedman mentioned that he thinks the Landeskog camp is looking for 7/8 - 7aav. The Andres Lee deal.

 

[GAGLine]

Wouldnt buyout friendly mean more of a frontloaded deal with signing bonuses in the early years? Those extra years simply to lower an overall cap hit. if he makes 9m in one year, you can go down to 4.5 in the next year i believe, which makes a better buyout number.

No. Extra years might lower the AAV some, but we'd probably have to go 7 or 8 years to get that, which is less ideal. And even then, the impact on the buyout wouldn't be that much.

The basic rule of thumb is that if the player has more remaining salary (not signing bonus) than cap hit, the buyout cap hit will be lower than 2/3rds in that year. If the cap hit is higher than the remaining salary, and/or there are significant signing bonuses, the buyout cap hit will be higher. Less salary does mean that there will be a lower cap hit in the extra years, so it's not all bad, but if you need to clear a lot of space immediately, you want a guy with a higher salary.

 

[pld459666]

I don't really see why the top players should get paid less in a flat cap given the flat cap is flat at the all time high. It's not like there is a rollback. Obviously you can no longer assume the cap will go up making contracts look better but if you were giving out contracts with the expectation that they are bad now and will look better as the cap rises then you were just giving out bad deals in the first place.

If most teams were at or near the cap, there is limited money to spread.

Thats going to have an impact across all level of players with the stars obviously seeing less of an impact, but an impact nonetheless

 

[Kocur Dill]

Friedman mentioned that he thinks the Landeskog camp is looking for 7/8 - 7aav. The Andres Lee deal.

I wish he wasn't a wing. Exactly the player we could utilize for performance, leadership, and the right type of toughness we need in the top 6.

I realize he was a Center when he was younger, but I'm not going to advocate for him as our 2c.

 

[pld459666]

so you expect him to at least become a "beast" of a 2nd line center?

12 mins a game of soft matchups with while playing with offensive talent that most 3rd line centers dont get.

What's your production projection for him?

Full season, nothing changes?

40-50 points

Increased ES Nd PP ice time?

55+ points

 

[bleedblue94]

Do you actually think Chytil is nothing more than a 30 point player?

you’re out to lunch if you don’t think ice time and PP time impact point totals.

I'm not saying he is a 30pt player in the future, but to this point he is a player that hasnt even broken 30pts in a season.

And youre being naïve if you dont think the matchups he has been subjected to havent sheltered him from playing against the other teams' best players. Other teams are putting their top 4 d against the zib line and the panarin line. Other teams pay attention to those players. We havent been a one line team where a guy like chytil is looked at by the other team as part of secondary scoring, he is part of tertiary+ scoring, in other words he is currently an afterthought when teams scheme defensively against nyr, hence soft matchups.

Where is he getting significant pp time on a team with panarin, zib, laf, fox, kakko, kreider, (potentially buch), (if he is still here) strome, ect?

Chytil is going to be an excellent 3c on a perennial contender and a 2c on a middling team. Anyone that thinks he is suddenly getting a boost to 2c minutes here is out to lunch. They didnt fire the president and gm who were preaching patience and turn the direction to an emphasis to compete asap only to look to boost chytil into an expanded role. Again, if chytil were on another team we would be looking at him more for what he actually is at this point rather than putting the NYR optimism glasses on for what we hope he becomes.

 

[bleedblue94]

Full season, nothing changes?

40-50 points

Increased ES Nd PP ice time?

55+ points

to me that is not a "BEAST" level 2c as you projected him to be...

i give you that he has 45pt upside, but where is he getting significant pp time on this roster?

 

[haohmaru]

Avatar bet? If he signs both for more than 5 years AND over 8 million, I change my avatar to anything you want for a month. You do the same, but for only two weeks if he signs for either 5 years or less OR 8 million or less. Deal?

If he signs a 2 year 10M per I lose? No thanks.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

most players that get bought out will get new contracts for more than the 1/3 they lost plus they get to pick where they go.

Not when it's big deals like we are discussing here

Take Corey Perry for example. He lost 4m in his buyout, and in the 2 years since his buy out he has earned 2.25m

 

[pld459666]

I'm not saying he is a 30pt player in the future, but to this point he is a player that hasnt even broken 30pts in a season.

And youre being naïve if you dont think the matchups he has been subjected to havent sheltered him from playing against the other teams' best players. Other teams are putting their top 4 d against the zib line and the panarin line. Other teams pay attention to those players. We havent been a one line team where a guy like chytil is looked at by the other team as part of secondary scoring, he is part of tertiary+ scoring, in other words he is currently an afterthought when teams scheme defensively against nyr, hence soft matchups.

Where is he getting significant pp time on a team with panarin, zib, laf, fox, kakko, kreider, (potentially buch), (if he is still here) strome, ect?

Chytil is going to be an excellent 3c on a perennial contender and a 2c on a middling team. Anyone that thinks he is suddenly getting a boost to 2c minutes here is out to lunch. They didnt fire the president and gm who were preaching patience and turn the direction to an emphasis to compete asap only to look to boost chytil into an expanded role. Again, if chytil were on another team we would be looking at him more for what he actually is at this point rather than putting the NYR optimism glasses on for what we hope he becomes.

Agree to disagree on what he is and will be.

 

[pld459666]

to me that is not a "BEAST" level 2c as you projected him to be...

i give you that he has 45pt upside, but where is he getting significant pp time on this roster?

What other NHL'ers are posting 45 ES points.

He was pacing that number in his 3rd year in the NHL.

 

[LannyMcdonald]

I don't really see why the top players should get paid less in a flat cap given the flat cap is flat at the all time high. It's not like there is a rollback. Obviously you can no longer assume the cap will go up making contracts look better but if you were giving out contracts with the expectation that they are bad now and will look better as the cap rises then you were just giving out bad deals in the first place.

Because previously all contracts were priced on the assumption that the cap was going up each year. It's not about "making them look good" but rather about projecting total cap impact fo rthe future state of any given team. Whether it's at an all time high isn't the point. It is, and will continue to be, lower than everyone was previously projecting.

 

[HonestGabe]

Not when it's big deals like we are discussing here

Take Corey Perry for example. He lost 4m in his buyout, and in the 2 years since his buy out he has earned 2.25m

Sidebar: if he doesn't resign in MTL I'd offer him a contract

 

[bleedblue94]

Agree to disagree on what he is and will be.

I'm not trying to hammer you but please help me understand how chytil is getting significant pp time here with the other/better offensive talent we have here, the type of pp time that would justify these production bumps that people suggest when they reference that he doesnt get any pp time now when talking about his numbers?

also please help me understand how he has not had softer matchups up till this point when we have two top 20 league wide players playing of different lines that cause defensive matchup issues for other teams?

we can each have an opinion on what he will evolve into as his career progresses, but those two points stand from recent history...

 

[Bluto]

The nhlpa is about to have an internal revolt on their hands with the flat cap. So many terrible contracts throughout the league will inevitably lead to anger amongst younger, more productive guys.